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Old 26th Nov 2017, 08:14
  #4081 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Right of the Middle
Posts: 349
Originally Posted by BitMoreRightRudder View Post
There are always some comedy bids, eg a year 1 cadet pilot bidding for an A380 command - that is streching the maxim somewhat!
Thanks for the info. Canít fault his/her optimism!

So I think what we can take from this is that there will be recruitment, but as I said a page or two back, Iím not sure how many DEPs will get the nod. I refer back to the July holdpool update... ĒAt the moment based on our current forecasting for 2018 we are not expecting to be able to offer anyone a start date in 2018 from the DEP holdpool.Ē

And from what you say, freeze waivers from the 320 onto long haul fleets effectively closes the door for our non-rated swimming colleagues.
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Old 26th Nov 2017, 09:44
  #4082 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
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Difficult to say for certain but the indications are that the fact that so many Freeze Waivers are taking place off the Airbus - whilst we know for sure that there are at least as many DEP’s swimming in the pool who meet the LH requirements - means that the numbers have been crunched and it will have been concluded cheaper to get Cadets in on reduced pay for a number of years than it is paying for the one off cost of an extra conversion course.

Of course if the requirements jump to 200-300 a year again (we shall see) then the training capacity will determine the movement off the Airbus and the recruitment of DEP's. It will be interesting to see how it pans out.

Last edited by RexBanner; 26th Nov 2017 at 13:23.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 11:54
  #4083 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 1999
Location: UK
Posts: 53
No idea of the logic of putting Level in LGW.... why would you (IAG) use your low cost brand (Level) to take business away from your premium brand (BA)?

You end up just competing with yourself and lowering you overall revenues!

Having said that, I can still see it happening!
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 14:50
  #4084 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
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Posts: 866
There is no logic Dave. It would absolutely trash the yields on those routes as you and I can see. Still people need something to be paranoid about I suppose! If it does happen they won’t be on the same routes as the BA fleet, it’ll be something different, so no threat to 777 jobs just yet.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 14:56
  #4085 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
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To take out Norwegian then fold the Level operation is the only reason I can think of. Unless the strategic view is LCLH is the ways forwards and you don't want your business to be the next Polaroid. Evolve or die...

To be fair, the typical LCLH user will be very different to the typical business class user, one would expect operators would prefer a jet full of business class, as the highest incline stream, if there were enough users of such a service.

Last edited by VinRouge; 27th Nov 2017 at 15:08.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 15:02
  #4086 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
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There’s undoubtedly less profit to be made in LCLH though VinRouge. You simply cannot get the unit cost down to the same extent that you can in Short Haul. It’s been tried over and over and over again. Norwegian haven’t somehow magically made it profitable, it’s the most advantageous environment there has ever been for LCCLH (Cheap Fuel, record low interest rates) and they are barely keeping their heads above water. Surely that tells its own story?

I am absolutely convinced that BA/IAG are talking up Norwegian as a stick to beat the workforce with. We should 100% call them on it.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 16:11
  #4087 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Manchester
Posts: 64
BA/IAG has secured the LGW Monarch slots. Standby for mass recruitment.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 16:21
  #4088 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 688
Well it seems IAG have won the majority of Monarch’s Gatwick slots.

We are already increasing density down the back on our LGW 777s. Level wouldn’t work at Heathrow, but packing them in tight as you can has a market at Gatwick in my opinion.

IAG claim the customers buying tickets with Level are a completely new customer base. They are therefore not currently in direct competition with BA’s revenue stream other than the fact that expansion of Level is not expansion of BA. But you can say the same thing about all of the other companies within the IAG group.

Incidentally, I too think we should call IAG’s bluff with regards to their attempts to beat us with the threat of other companies taking our work. I thought that way back when they were claiming we needed to take cost cuts in order to fund BMI coming to BA, rather that Veuling or some new IAG entity. BA is definitely a hugely important part of IAG at least in the short to medium term.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 16:56
  #4089 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 688
Speculation aside as to where the slots are destined in the longer term, how do we think BA are going to service these new slots? Short haul aircraft, or long haul? Hang on to a couple of 747s and 767s a little while longer perhaps?
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 17:10
  #4090 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
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Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
Thereís undoubtedly less profit to be made in LCLH though VinRouge. You simply cannot get the unit cost down to the same extent that you can in Short Haul. Itís been tried over and over and over again. Norwegian havenít somehow magically made it profitable, itís the most advantageous environment there has ever been for LCCLH (Cheap Fuel, record low interest rates) and they are barely keeping their heads above water. Surely that tells its own story?

I am absolutely convinced that BA/IAG are talking up Norwegian as a stick to beat the workforce with. We should 100% call them on it.
They also are having to contend with the overheads of establishing an operation at present. That can't be cheap, the profit will come imho once they bed in and learn where increased load factor or prices are tolerable.

Price hikes in fuel will impact the whole industry and result in price hikes, the low cost I expect will be relative to existing traditional long haul carriers. If everyone hikes by 50 quid a fare for increased prices, the traditional airlines will be in just a bad situation. Hedging fuel prices only works in your favour for so long before options expire, so that can only work in the sort to medium term.

The only concern is bankruptcy or someone loss leading, similar to what has happened to NOR SH at BHX I believe. Question is, with 2 billion down, are they now too big to fail?
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 18:37
  #4091 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
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Read about Braniff and Air Europe and then compare to what’s going on at Norwegian. The parallels are staggering. They’re over stretching themselves going for market share ahead of actually establishing profitability. There’s a staggering amount of red ink all over their balance sheet. By their own admission in their latest accounts they only have guaranteed capitalisation for the next three quarters! It isn’t just related to growing the business. I will take any bet you like that they won’t be here in five to ten years time.

Last edited by RexBanner; 27th Nov 2017 at 18:48.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 18:44
  #4092 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Button Moon
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Originally Posted by GS-Alpha View Post
Speculation aside as to where the slots are destined in the longer term, how do we think BA are going to service these new slots? Short haul aircraft, or long haul? Hang on to a couple of 747s and 767s a little while longer perhaps?
Don't go giving them any ideas!!!

As far as I know, the last of the 767's have an issue which means they MUST be in their final resting place by 0001 hrs on 1st Jan 2019. Up until that point I guess it's feasible to use the fleet wherever they see fit but the remaining 7 aircraft are all short haul config and not etops. Maybe a stop gap for a few months for some high density short haul perhaps but something more definite must be in the pipeline for slots that valuable. Maybe more work for the triple bearing in mind the FW's onto the fleet.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 18:49
  #4093 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 321
Just for clarity, as posted at the top is it BA/IAG who have secured the slots or IAG? The former would assume IAG have secured the slots for BA.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 18:56
  #4094 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Button Moon
Posts: 314
Reports on Reuters et al would suggest it's IAG so I guess any one of the group could benefit from them. I'd imagine the most likely to use them would be BA but you never know with IAG.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 20:42
  #4095 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: uk
Posts: 18
How many slots did Monarch have to sell?
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 20:49
  #4096 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 0
Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
Read about Braniff and Air Europe and then compare to whatís going on at Norwegian. The parallels are staggering. Theyíre over stretching themselves going for market share ahead of actually establishing profitability. Thereís a staggering amount of red ink all over their balance sheet. By their own admission in their latest accounts they only have guaranteed capitalisation for the next three quarters! It isnít just related to growing the business. I will take any bet you like that they wonít be here in five to ten years time.
I bet neither had the pseudo backing of a sovereign wealth fund worth trillions looking for long term investment opportunities on the behalf of their nationals though!

https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 21:20
  #4097 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 688
I read somewhere that Monarch had 18 slot pairs at Gatwick. I cannot remember where I read it because it was a while back, and so I am not sure of its accuracy.
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 22:46
  #4098 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: London
Posts: 134
Itís ok guys Iím sure Level will snap those up
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Old 27th Nov 2017, 22:54
  #4099 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Manchester
Posts: 64
Couldnít be further from the truth.
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Old 28th Nov 2017, 08:52
  #4100 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: London
Age: 34
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https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.ind...261.html%3famp
If this isnt hope for those of us in the pool then nothing will be!
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