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BA Direct Entry Pilot.

Old 29th Nov 2017, 10:25
  #4121 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 38
Posts: 403
I think a few things are certain and that is, JSS will mean that the current pilot establishment will be “Optimised” or worked to fatigue and this will mean less pilots are needed. With the plans that probably means FPPs will fill the gaps by pilots leaving the 320 fleet. DEP......search me. Gatwick slots I assume were not accounted for but with 25 NEOs arriving to replace the older 319’s it is not hard to imagine those being sent to Gatwick to slot sit. Where do the pilots come from? Rated DEP one would assume in order to get it up and running quickly whilst maintaining so level of experience. If that does happen the PRIAM result go out the window. Simply put, the slots have to be used, aircraft need to fill them and pilots need to fly them. My two pence which is probably completely wrong as it’s so simple.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 10:55
  #4122 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Right of the Middle
Posts: 274
Originally Posted by World Flyer View Post
Valid point. Many of the people I know in the holdpool have moved on and are no longer interested in BA. Even more with no interest in shorthaul. Does anybody have reliable info about the number of DEP swimmers? I’ve heard as low as 80 and as high as 300.
A friend in the company scoured the relevant Yammer threads and came up with the following numbers. So fairly reliable, based on (I think) a reasonable assumption of success rate in the sim:
  • 446 sim assessments in 2016.
  • Based on 2 out of 3 success rate, that has ~300 in the pool
  • ~30% of whom are 320 rated, so ~90 rated swimmers.
  • A handful of whom started with the company in Jan/Feb this year - someone will know the exact number.
As you mentioned, there will be a number who have moved on to VS or the Middle East or elsewhere, or who have stayed put and picked up a command, or who perhaps already have a command and have no interest in joining the short haul fleet in the RHS. Some will be Monarch guys who are now perhaps commited to elsewhere.

How many there are in one of those situations... your guess is as good as mine. Personally, I know four guys who would fit one of those criteria. And to be fair, BA won’t even know until they start making offers.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 11:05
  #4123 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: UK
Age: 45
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Don’t forget there are 777 and 747 rated pilot’s too in the pool.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 11:27
  #4124 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Uk
Posts: 31
Quite. Many assume all recruitment if any would be for the A320 only. Answer is, we really don't know. But potentially all Airbus positions could be filled with FPPs/ white tail cadets. If (and a big if) there's a need for longhaul DEPs then these could go to Boeing rated.

Like others have mentioned I know several in the pool who have gone off to the likes of Virgin and Thomson/TUI and seem rather happy with life there.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 11:31
  #4125 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: uk
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Thanks for the reply FoxChaRomeo. I think your right. Any plan made to call people out of the pool if subject to massive change depending on people accepting or not. Which as you said they’ll only know when they start making the offers. Based solely on people you and I know, it does sound like a sizable chunk have moved on. But, it’s anyone’s guess.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 12:30
  #4126 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: UK
Posts: 286
Not involved in the pool myself so these comments are totally from an observer.

If I were "swimming" I would have every right to be quite annoyed with the situation. The selection process is not trivial and requires a large amount of preparation is required, which, one would assume would lead to a job with BA if successful. I'm glad the holding pool lifeline has been extended but if I were to "expire" I'd expect to be re-imbursed the costs incurred to attend the selection events. In other news I saw a flying pig the other day...

Hope you all get the call
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 13:05
  #4127 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
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Originally Posted by Flyer2007 View Post
Quite. Many assume all recruitment if any would be for the A320 only. Answer is, we really don't know. But potentially all Airbus positions could be filled with FPPs/ white tail cadets. If (and a big if) there's a need for longhaul DEPs then these could go to Boeing rated.
The number of freeze waivers granted this year would suggest that the company has been proactive in filling LH vacancies by moving people off the 320 fleet early. That alone suggests to me that there will be limited if any LH DEP recruitment.

And from the hold pool update in January...
The A320 will, as always, be our primary recruiting fleet.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 13:09
  #4128 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
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Originally Posted by average-punter View Post
Not involved in the pool myself so these comments are totally from an observer.

If I were "swimming" I would have every right to be quite annoyed with the situation. The selection process is not trivial and requires a large amount of preparation is required, which, one would assume would lead to a job with BA if successful.
I agree. Not an accusation at any individuals but there appears to be a touch of 'institutional arrogance'...

"we are British Airways, so people will wait. We've had a better idea and can save some cash by only employing cadets, but if that doesn't work out, we can still go back to the DEP hold pool cos people still want to work for us"
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 23:29
  #4129 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: UK
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Absolutely. I think this time round they may be quite surprised.
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Old 29th Nov 2017, 23:50
  #4130 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
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I bet they won’t be surprised 🙄
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 00:36
  #4131 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: pluto
Posts: 168
You'll be joining at 4100+.

In 2033 you'll be 3100 on present predictions.

SH LHS is about 2400, LH 1550 ish.

Do the maths.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 09:26
  #4132 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
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Blimey, those figures are assuming an attrition rate of 66 pilots a year. Now that the retirements have gone back to normal I’ve gone up 183 places in 18 months. That’s almost double your figures so somebody isn’t doing the maths correctly.

Your figures would mean a new joiner of the age of 25 would only barely (by a year or so) achieve a long haul command by the end of their 40 years service!

Last edited by RexBanner; 30th Nov 2017 at 09:40.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 10:05
  #4133 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
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The demographics of the retirement rate across all western economies is far in excess of any historical reference point; the data simply does not exist.

Given the impact on asset markets, health care provision and even considerations of tax I would treat any prediction of advancement based on any historical metric to be of limited value.

Governments the world over are struggling with an aging workforce they are simply concerned with tax and spend, not service provision. On all western economies measures they all begin a great stagnation for at least a decade commencing now and continuing country after country.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 11:01
  #4134 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: pluto
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Agreed, Gents, the goalposts do move. But to those who aren't anointed, it's not the end of the world.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 11:11
  #4135 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
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Rex,
Blimey’s figures for seniority are based on the seniority predictor spreadsheet that was created a year or so ago. It takes everyone’s age into account, but assumes retirement at age 65. It also doesn’t take standard attrition due to loss of licence etc. into account. Some years have significantly higher rates of retirement than others, but it only goes up as far as 2033. You cannot just extrapolate figures beyond 2033 to work out seniority in later years in the way you have done, because BA has some very definite age demographic variations at various seniority positions.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 11:51
  #4136 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: London
Posts: 96
Also worth noting that LH RHS is down to 3540 ish (excluding forced bids off the 767), so the chances are that like most people, after your initial 5 year freeze on the Airbus is over, a Long Haul seat will be available to you.

If you're in your 20's or 30's and you want to have the opportunity to fly long haul at some point it's still a no brainer in my opinion. 5 years on the Airbus at BA or 30 years on the Airbus somewhere else... take your pick. Of course, I totally understand that for some people short haul is their preferred lifestyle choice and thats just as valid a decision on a personal level. It's certainly very difficult (impossible?) to make the argument to leave somewhere like easyJet if your ambition is to remain on short haul long term.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 15:40
  #4137 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 38
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A large number of the “junior jets” are sitting on LH commands and are now in their mid to late 40’s. With part time options I think a good number of these will stick around to 60 if not 65. This is going to effectively stall natural progression. We all have potentially longer careers and some through circumstance have lucked out on pay point 24 with another 15 years or more to go. Each to their own but BA is a long game and a good assumption would be that not much is going to come quickly. Historically RHS LH was 5/7 years. A SH command about 12/15 and a LH over 20. Don’t wish your life away because it will be behind you faster than any of us imagine.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 15:47
  #4138 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Right of the Middle
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but part time options will meant that the seniority required to get on a certain fleet or certain seat will reduce, right?

It's surely a good thing for people lower down the pecking order to have people above them going part time? Rather than working 100% until the day they retire?

Two 50% part time skippers on the 787 for example are essentially taking one spot. Or am I being too simplistic? (Quite possible!)
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 15:52
  #4139 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 38
Posts: 403
I don’t think it will make much difference because those who would go “stuff it” and retire at 55 or 60 are generally now deciding to ease off the gas and continue working but part time. If you were on the top pay scale choosing your work and doing a few trips a month on which you can take your partner or kids why would you retire? People say the pension will be a big driver for retirements but that’s not the noises I hear.

On a positive note though. Gatwick slots, NEO’s arriving this year to replace older 319’s at LHR. IAG have slots which need flying, some aircraft they could keep hold of to slot sit and a pool of pilots. Despite what people say, in the short to medium term it will be a BA gig and maybe Level will have some later but who knows. That has to be the positive driver of recruitment.
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Old 30th Nov 2017, 19:02
  #4140 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 590
I agree Bex. The PRIAM results just produced are now obsolete. These Gatwick slots could have just changed an awful lot of the strategy and I’d be quietly optimistic if I was in the hold pool at the moment.
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