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BA Direct Entry Pilot.

Old 29th Nov 2017, 22:50
  #4141 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: 370
Posts: 44
I bet they won’t be surprised 🙄
WonderBus is offline  
Old 29th Nov 2017, 23:36
  #4142 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: pluto
Posts: 166
You'll be joining at 4100+.

In 2033 you'll be 3100 on present predictions.

SH LHS is about 2400, LH 1550 ish.

Do the maths.
blimey is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 08:26
  #4143 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 670
Blimey, those figures are assuming an attrition rate of 66 pilots a year. Now that the retirements have gone back to normal I’ve gone up 183 places in 18 months. That’s almost double your figures so somebody isn’t doing the maths correctly.

Your figures would mean a new joiner of the age of 25 would only barely (by a year or so) achieve a long haul command by the end of their 40 years service!

Last edited by RexBanner; 30th Nov 2017 at 08:40.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 09:05
  #4144 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,056
The demographics of the retirement rate across all western economies is far in excess of any historical reference point; the data simply does not exist.

Given the impact on asset markets, health care provision and even considerations of tax I would treat any prediction of advancement based on any historical metric to be of limited value.

Governments the world over are struggling with an aging workforce they are simply concerned with tax and spend, not service provision. On all western economies measures they all begin a great stagnation for at least a decade commencing now and continuing country after country.
Rated De is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 10:01
  #4145 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: pluto
Posts: 166
Agreed, Gents, the goalposts do move. But to those who aren't anointed, it's not the end of the world.
blimey is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 10:11
  #4146 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 543
Rex,
Blimey’s figures for seniority are based on the seniority predictor spreadsheet that was created a year or so ago. It takes everyone’s age into account, but assumes retirement at age 65. It also doesn’t take standard attrition due to loss of licence etc. into account. Some years have significantly higher rates of retirement than others, but it only goes up as far as 2033. You cannot just extrapolate figures beyond 2033 to work out seniority in later years in the way you have done, because BA has some very definite age demographic variations at various seniority positions.
GS-Alpha is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 10:51
  #4147 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: London
Posts: 89
Also worth noting that LH RHS is down to 3540 ish (excluding forced bids off the 767), so the chances are that like most people, after your initial 5 year freeze on the Airbus is over, a Long Haul seat will be available to you.

If you're in your 20's or 30's and you want to have the opportunity to fly long haul at some point it's still a no brainer in my opinion. 5 years on the Airbus at BA or 30 years on the Airbus somewhere else... take your pick. Of course, I totally understand that for some people short haul is their preferred lifestyle choice and thats just as valid a decision on a personal level. It's certainly very difficult (impossible?) to make the argument to leave somewhere like easyJet if your ambition is to remain on short haul long term.
Northern Monkey is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 14:40
  #4148 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 37
Posts: 373
A large number of the “junior jets” are sitting on LH commands and are now in their mid to late 40’s. With part time options I think a good number of these will stick around to 60 if not 65. This is going to effectively stall natural progression. We all have potentially longer careers and some through circumstance have lucked out on pay point 24 with another 15 years or more to go. Each to their own but BA is a long game and a good assumption would be that not much is going to come quickly. Historically RHS LH was 5/7 years. A SH command about 12/15 and a LH over 20. Don’t wish your life away because it will be behind you faster than any of us imagine.
bex88 is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 14:47
  #4149 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Right of the Middle
Posts: 247
Correct me if I'm wrong, but part time options will meant that the seniority required to get on a certain fleet or certain seat will reduce, right?

It's surely a good thing for people lower down the pecking order to have people above them going part time? Rather than working 100% until the day they retire?

Two 50% part time skippers on the 787 for example are essentially taking one spot. Or am I being too simplistic? (Quite possible!)
FoxChaRomeo is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 14:52
  #4150 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 37
Posts: 373
I don’t think it will make much difference because those who would go “stuff it” and retire at 55 or 60 are generally now deciding to ease off the gas and continue working but part time. If you were on the top pay scale choosing your work and doing a few trips a month on which you can take your partner or kids why would you retire? People say the pension will be a big driver for retirements but that’s not the noises I hear.

On a positive note though. Gatwick slots, NEO’s arriving this year to replace older 319’s at LHR. IAG have slots which need flying, some aircraft they could keep hold of to slot sit and a pool of pilots. Despite what people say, in the short to medium term it will be a BA gig and maybe Level will have some later but who knows. That has to be the positive driver of recruitment.
bex88 is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 18:02
  #4151 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 543
I agree Bex. The PRIAM results just produced are now obsolete. These Gatwick slots could have just changed an awful lot of the strategy and I’d be quietly optimistic if I was in the hold pool at the moment.
GS-Alpha is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 19:59
  #4152 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Button Moon
Posts: 282
For the sake of those treading water in the hold pool I sincerely hope you’re right and suspect you may well be. On the other hand, the PRIAM results were being sorted around the same time as these slots would have been negotiated. So was this part of the reason for the significant number of FW’s (excluding the required moves off the retiring 767 fleet)?

Who knows.

In any event, the effort required to pass the BA recruitment process is substantial and I really hope the guys and girls waiting for a start date will come off well from the forthcoming LGW expansion. They deserve it after such a long wait!
2 Whites 2 Reds is offline  
Old 30th Nov 2017, 22:13
  #4153 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: UK
Posts: 543
At about the time the PRIAM results were being produced, KPMG had lost their case in the courts and were deemed not to have the right to sell Monarch’s slots. They were appealing against the decision, but had not had it reversed yet. The question is do BAs pilot P&P and recruitment plans take the Gatwick slots into account, and based upon the above, I’m suspecting they don’t. After that, it depends whether they can meet the new requirement using just the FPP recruits, and again, I suspect they cannot. I should point out these are all just guesses as I have absolutely zero inside info on the subject.
GS-Alpha is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 13:11
  #4154 (permalink)  
MOA
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Here and there
Posts: 65
The latest PRIAM results did not take into account potential LGW slots (and from that I 'assume' recruitment’s needs to date did not either). No news from network planning as to the likely requirement as yet.

That is all...

Last edited by MOA; 1st Dec 2017 at 16:50. Reason: Gramma...
MOA is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 15:44
  #4155 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 37
Posts: 373
I don’t think we even know how many mince pie’s we need for Christmas let alone anything else.
bex88 is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 16:03
  #4156 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Botswana
Posts: 670
Alex will probably eat them all that’s why.
RexBanner is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 16:18
  #4157 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Uk
Age: 37
Posts: 373
Well it would at least be “cost neutral”
bex88 is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 16:52
  #4158 (permalink)  
MOA
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Here and there
Posts: 65
Haven’t you heard, there is no Christmas this year. Too expensive and no tangible benefit to shareholders...
MOA is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 20:52
  #4159 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: England
Posts: 30
NS was asked directly on Yammer if the current PRIAM results & expected future recruitment had taken the Gatwick slots into account, & if any changes would occur.... Her answer is bellow.... hopefully some good news for holdpoolers!

‘Yes things will change once the full impact of the slots filters down to us from network planning. There won’t be another PRIAM results published, the changes will be handled via publication of course lists’
BASHLH is offline  
Old 1st Dec 2017, 22:18
  #4160 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: F410
Posts: 32
40 slot pairs equals about 6 aircraft (based on each one doing 6 sector days). That will only need 50-60 pilots to operate (if used entirely on SH routes). That’s not going to make much of a dent in a 300 strong hold pool. That number could increase towards 100-120 if used on long haul.
monkey.tennis is online now  

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