Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Ah, the sage of Llareggub (thank you Dylan Thomas) Did I say that? I think you'll find I said that your opinion wasn't a fact, it might have been right or wrong but it was just your opinion. I also criticized your selective use of cut and paste presented as fact and the reliance on gnomic utterances of financial 'experts'.
We've been waiting for your predicted rush away from air travel for nearly a year now and there is no evidence at all that it is true when applied to the UK low cost Market - and the post was about Easyjet, was it not?
We've been waiting for your predicted rush away from air travel for nearly a year now and there is no evidence at all that it is true when applied to the UK low cost Market - and the post was about Easyjet, was it not?
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Turbulence forces British Airways to fly lighter at front of the cabin
British Airways said that its first and business-class traffic had fallen by 17.7 per cent last month as the airline’s more lucrative customers cut back on travelling amid the recession. It said that total traffic for April had risen by 0.9 per cent as market conditions continued to be “very challenging”.
In contrast, economy-class traffic rose 5.2 per cent, boosted by Easter falling in April this year, but total load factor, a measure of how full aircraft are, dropped 2.6 per cent to 78.1 per cent. Cargo traffic was down 14.8 per cent.
BA flew nearly 2.8 million passengers in the month, up 1.3 per cent on the 2.7 million it carried in the same period last year. The increase was largely down to more passengers in Britain and Europe, where it carried almost 1.7 million passengers, up 1.4 per cent. The airline also flew more people in the Americas and Africa and the Middle East. There was another sharp fall in Asia, with numbers falling 9.1 per cent in the month to 142,000.
The airline said that its shares had fallen amid concerns about swine flu but had recovered in recent days as fears ease and hopes build that it could be closer to a merger deal with Iberia, the Spanish carrier.
In contrast, economy-class traffic rose 5.2 per cent, boosted by Easter falling in April this year, but total load factor, a measure of how full aircraft are, dropped 2.6 per cent to 78.1 per cent. Cargo traffic was down 14.8 per cent.
BA flew nearly 2.8 million passengers in the month, up 1.3 per cent on the 2.7 million it carried in the same period last year. The increase was largely down to more passengers in Britain and Europe, where it carried almost 1.7 million passengers, up 1.4 per cent. The airline also flew more people in the Americas and Africa and the Middle East. There was another sharp fall in Asia, with numbers falling 9.1 per cent in the month to 142,000.
The airline said that its shares had fallen amid concerns about swine flu but had recovered in recent days as fears ease and hopes build that it could be closer to a merger deal with Iberia, the Spanish carrier.
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Load Factors - last 6 months view
As a regular SLF traveller, I have actually seen a change in the last 6 months to 9 months. Load factors have INCREASED.
My experiences are a mix of short and long haul, primarily with BA, easyJet and Ryanair. BA and easyJet flights have been between 95% to 100% full - mostly 100% full. The worst load factor I have encountered was on a Ryanair flight which was approx 70% full. Having travelled for the last 20 years and I can not recall a period where I have seen such a step up in load factors - it certainly was not this full a year or so back.
I checked the schedules and routes etc to see if flights have been chopped and thus load factors increased as there are less flights to a specified destination - but I don't see it. There appear to be, if anything, more destinations, especially in the low cost route networks.
Airports appear just as busy as always - I don't see any decline, especially having waited so many hours of my life in queues !!
I don't see a down-turn from a passenger perspective - my SLF experience is the inverse.
GSS
My experiences are a mix of short and long haul, primarily with BA, easyJet and Ryanair. BA and easyJet flights have been between 95% to 100% full - mostly 100% full. The worst load factor I have encountered was on a Ryanair flight which was approx 70% full. Having travelled for the last 20 years and I can not recall a period where I have seen such a step up in load factors - it certainly was not this full a year or so back.
I checked the schedules and routes etc to see if flights have been chopped and thus load factors increased as there are less flights to a specified destination - but I don't see it. There appear to be, if anything, more destinations, especially in the low cost route networks.
Airports appear just as busy as always - I don't see any decline, especially having waited so many hours of my life in queues !!
I don't see a down-turn from a passenger perspective - my SLF experience is the inverse.
GSS
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GSS,
The passenger numbers have been good, of that there is little doubt. The problem is with the yield from the sold seats.
Any muppet can fill an aircraft with passengers, it's the ability to make a profit out of the aircraft that is difficult. Whilst the flights have been full you don't know what passengers have paid for their seats and thus the profit margin available to the airline operator.
Add together the ridiculous costs associated with BAA airports, the daylight robbery of the Airport Passenger Duty tax (£60 for the 'privilege' of leaving the UK?) and the pressure on the profitable part of the ticket is an ever increasing spiral.
Don't let passenger numbers cloud the fact that the airline industry is still in severe economic decline. The absence of premium traffic is hurting the bigger carriers as they desperately try to restructure to take advantage of the 'bulk' economy travellers over the next year or two. Both VA and BA are operating aircraft configured towards the high yield business/first passenger with, subsequently, less seats for economy thus reducing the yield.
Time will tell, but it's still going to be painful for a year or two I feel. As VA and BA mull the spectre of compulsory or voluntary redundancy during their restructuring I think the out look for 'wannabees' is not looking very rosy at all.
The passenger numbers have been good, of that there is little doubt. The problem is with the yield from the sold seats.
Any muppet can fill an aircraft with passengers, it's the ability to make a profit out of the aircraft that is difficult. Whilst the flights have been full you don't know what passengers have paid for their seats and thus the profit margin available to the airline operator.
Add together the ridiculous costs associated with BAA airports, the daylight robbery of the Airport Passenger Duty tax (£60 for the 'privilege' of leaving the UK?) and the pressure on the profitable part of the ticket is an ever increasing spiral.
Don't let passenger numbers cloud the fact that the airline industry is still in severe economic decline. The absence of premium traffic is hurting the bigger carriers as they desperately try to restructure to take advantage of the 'bulk' economy travellers over the next year or two. Both VA and BA are operating aircraft configured towards the high yield business/first passenger with, subsequently, less seats for economy thus reducing the yield.
Time will tell, but it's still going to be painful for a year or two I feel. As VA and BA mull the spectre of compulsory or voluntary redundancy during their restructuring I think the out look for 'wannabees' is not looking very rosy at all.
Well I actually sign off the loadsheets and fly the schedules.
Aircraft are being parked up all day long doing nothing. Loads aren't great. Look at the BRS apron on a Tuesday and you'll see aircraft with cobwebs on them.
Alex you can call me the sage of bugger-all until you are blue in the face mate. Because I offered my opinions, which proved absolutely correct, months and years ahead of others. In the teeth of dissent and ridicule. Those Wannabes that took note have benefitted. That is the bottom line.
I did selectively cut and paste (is there any other way?). The relevant point is that the material has proved correct. The financial 'experts' I quoted were the experts that were correct. My opinion is not fact and no amount of confident assertion by me can change that. Wannabes are not looking for fact. They seek informed opinion. Opinion free from being rooted in the flight training industry. Opinion based on decades of experience in the industry. My opinion was freely offered on a public discussion forum and you're contention about it having been right or wrong is merely failure to concede you were on the wrong side of the debate. There was a house price crash and there was a recession.
If you want to confine the debate to UK low cost airlines and ignore the wider Wannabe market that is fine. Lets start with the prospects of BMIBaby, the profitability of Globespan and the the precarious reliance on mail contracts of Jet2.
Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.
WWW
Aircraft are being parked up all day long doing nothing. Loads aren't great. Look at the BRS apron on a Tuesday and you'll see aircraft with cobwebs on them.
Alex you can call me the sage of bugger-all until you are blue in the face mate. Because I offered my opinions, which proved absolutely correct, months and years ahead of others. In the teeth of dissent and ridicule. Those Wannabes that took note have benefitted. That is the bottom line.
I did selectively cut and paste (is there any other way?). The relevant point is that the material has proved correct. The financial 'experts' I quoted were the experts that were correct. My opinion is not fact and no amount of confident assertion by me can change that. Wannabes are not looking for fact. They seek informed opinion. Opinion free from being rooted in the flight training industry. Opinion based on decades of experience in the industry. My opinion was freely offered on a public discussion forum and you're contention about it having been right or wrong is merely failure to concede you were on the wrong side of the debate. There was a house price crash and there was a recession.
If you want to confine the debate to UK low cost airlines and ignore the wider Wannabe market that is fine. Lets start with the prospects of BMIBaby, the profitability of Globespan and the the precarious reliance on mail contracts of Jet2.
Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.
WWW
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Outside the low cost world - the one where every bit of the profit lies with those who pay extra to turn left on entry to the aircraft - there is a disastrous slump.
Aircraft parked by the score. If you get out of this particular ghetto and cruise the rest of the site and beyond you can see and make your own judgements. At a time when a company like Singapore parks 17 widebodies anyone who quotes load factors is simply parroting egregious airline spin.
Singapore has excellent load factors now for the headline writers don't they?
And it's repeated across the world - often masked as 'retirements' or the more sophisticated trumpeted reductions in average fleet age. What it really means is an average of 11 pilots per parked aircraft on the street. Many of you arrived on this forum when Toulouse and Seattle were jostling to see who'd hit the 300 orders in a year mark.
The stark reality is this: When cancellations are added to the figures Boeing has only sold one aircraft this year and 10,000 workers have already been laid off.
The minnows and weak go early at these times. However, apparently strong airlines often go later. Those with fleets parked for much of the day have great load factors too. You love quoting them to cheer yourselves up. The freighting world isn't decimated in the true sense of the word - it's far worse than that because only one word matters for us actually doing the job and those looking in.
Only yield matters - everything else is smoke and mirrors. You might suggest that the websites and ads from the FTO's are blowing that smoke up your respective butts - I couldn't possibly comment.
Rob
Aircraft parked by the score. If you get out of this particular ghetto and cruise the rest of the site and beyond you can see and make your own judgements. At a time when a company like Singapore parks 17 widebodies anyone who quotes load factors is simply parroting egregious airline spin.
Singapore has excellent load factors now for the headline writers don't they?
And it's repeated across the world - often masked as 'retirements' or the more sophisticated trumpeted reductions in average fleet age. What it really means is an average of 11 pilots per parked aircraft on the street. Many of you arrived on this forum when Toulouse and Seattle were jostling to see who'd hit the 300 orders in a year mark.
The stark reality is this: When cancellations are added to the figures Boeing has only sold one aircraft this year and 10,000 workers have already been laid off.
The minnows and weak go early at these times. However, apparently strong airlines often go later. Those with fleets parked for much of the day have great load factors too. You love quoting them to cheer yourselves up. The freighting world isn't decimated in the true sense of the word - it's far worse than that because only one word matters for us actually doing the job and those looking in.
Only yield matters - everything else is smoke and mirrors. You might suggest that the websites and ads from the FTO's are blowing that smoke up your respective butts - I couldn't possibly comment.
Rob
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As regular BC passenger, I have reduced my travel by 50% and now dig out the best bargains even if I sacrifice flexibility.
The fact that BA are charging almost twice as much as Emirates to fly to Australia in BC explains why BA are taking a hammering. Beside which BAs aircraft are dirty sheds with cabin crew who just moan all the time. I can do without that thank you.
The fact that BA are charging almost twice as much as Emirates to fly to Australia in BC explains why BA are taking a hammering. Beside which BAs aircraft are dirty sheds with cabin crew who just moan all the time. I can do without that thank you.
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reduced my travel by 50% and now dig out the best bargains even if I sacrifice flexibility
Rob
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Lufthansa’s BMI bid hit by cash row
THE Lufthansa takeover of BMI British Midland has been thrown into doubt by a row with Sir Michael Bishop, the British airline’s founder, over the injection of fresh money into the company.
The German flag carrier has demanded that Bishop, one of the UK’s best-known airline entrepreneurs, take part in a recapitalisation of BMI to avoid the risk of it breaching regulatory rules on capital reserves.
Bishop is understood to have told Lufthansa he will not play ball and that there is no risk of a breach. Both sides are now seeking legal advice on how to resolve the wrangle.
The German flag carrier has demanded that Bishop, one of the UK’s best-known airline entrepreneurs, take part in a recapitalisation of BMI to avoid the risk of it breaching regulatory rules on capital reserves.
Bishop is understood to have told Lufthansa he will not play ball and that there is no risk of a breach. Both sides are now seeking legal advice on how to resolve the wrangle.
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CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?
end of the "depression"?
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CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?
end of the "depression"?
So, whilst it may look as if we are actually scraping the bottom of this recession as far as the numbers go, we have a long way to go with a steep climb. Once out we will see a sea of financial mire that is the Governments abysmal financial handling of the past decade with public debt of 100% of GDP which will scare off investors in Britain and make it a long uphill struggle to get the public finances in check. Until they are private business, especially such supposed environmental demons as airlines who are easily taxed and targeted by loud, small, vocal campaigner groups, will continue to be heavily taxed.
Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.
Scourge of Bad Airline Management!
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I'm as guilty as anyone of wanting to see the world through rose tinted specs, especially in these troubled times. But from where I sit in airline management, the future looks far from rosy in the short-medium term, and I would suggest to all you "don't worry, it is not as bad as you think" merchants out there that you pay heed to PPrune Towers and WWW....
What we are seeing is the calm (believe it or not) before the storm.
Turn downs like this have the effect of "de chaving" low cost flights. The first stages of this process are already with us - premium cabins getting walloped as customers get more price sensitive, and businesses pull away from travel to cut costs. Then the ripple effect starts. First class punters fly Business. Business fly Premium. Premium fly economy. Economy fly low cost. And many low cost punters don't fly. Not a major issue for the low costs, they feel this effect last. But from the numbers, and from what WWW is reporting (and let's face it, he should know!) the low costs are starting to feel it. Uh oh.
Couple this with the thought that this should be the BEST part of the year - summer is coming up, people are starting (or rather should be starting) to book their holidays - and if they are not, god help us in the Autumn, when things really get hairy.
Will there be more carriers going to the wall? Yes. I have no doubt about it. I have my own thoughts on who, but I will keep those thoughts to myself, since I would hate to read on here about someone predicting the demise of my employer. Will the industry contract further? Yes. We will bounce back, we always do - but IMHO it won't be this year or even next. If you want to train and join the employment queue, carry on, but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.
Also - when you do get a job in 2011, remember that the next upturn will be followed, as sure as night follows day, by another downturn. This is one of the most cyclical industries in the world, so please have something to fall back on. It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after....
Chin up boys and girls. We will recover. Just not for a while....
TA
What we are seeing is the calm (believe it or not) before the storm.
Turn downs like this have the effect of "de chaving" low cost flights. The first stages of this process are already with us - premium cabins getting walloped as customers get more price sensitive, and businesses pull away from travel to cut costs. Then the ripple effect starts. First class punters fly Business. Business fly Premium. Premium fly economy. Economy fly low cost. And many low cost punters don't fly. Not a major issue for the low costs, they feel this effect last. But from the numbers, and from what WWW is reporting (and let's face it, he should know!) the low costs are starting to feel it. Uh oh.
Couple this with the thought that this should be the BEST part of the year - summer is coming up, people are starting (or rather should be starting) to book their holidays - and if they are not, god help us in the Autumn, when things really get hairy.
Will there be more carriers going to the wall? Yes. I have no doubt about it. I have my own thoughts on who, but I will keep those thoughts to myself, since I would hate to read on here about someone predicting the demise of my employer. Will the industry contract further? Yes. We will bounce back, we always do - but IMHO it won't be this year or even next. If you want to train and join the employment queue, carry on, but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.
Also - when you do get a job in 2011, remember that the next upturn will be followed, as sure as night follows day, by another downturn. This is one of the most cyclical industries in the world, so please have something to fall back on. It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after....
Chin up boys and girls. We will recover. Just not for a while....
TA
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British Airways axes 100 pilots to save £20m
British Airways is getting rid of more than 100 pilots with pay-offs of up to £150,000 each because of a huge fall in passenger numbers.
The move will save BA some £20million in salary, National Insurance and pension costs.
Managers wrote to 500 of BA's 3,200 pilots offering voluntary redundancy or unpaid leave.
It is understood 130 put their names forward.
They are being offered a year's salary in severance pay.
Nearly 500 managers took redundancy in December and 300 office and support staff will have left by June 1.
In March, the number of BA business and First Class passengers fell by 13 per cent.
This month it is expected to announce an annual operating loss of £150million.
The move will save BA some £20million in salary, National Insurance and pension costs.
Managers wrote to 500 of BA's 3,200 pilots offering voluntary redundancy or unpaid leave.
It is understood 130 put their names forward.
They are being offered a year's salary in severance pay.
Nearly 500 managers took redundancy in December and 300 office and support staff will have left by June 1.
In March, the number of BA business and First Class passengers fell by 13 per cent.
This month it is expected to announce an annual operating loss of £150million.
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"It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after...."
I believe this is the first "proper" downturn since this method of funding pilot training was introduced. In the early nineties I think BA and co still were running fully sponsored schemes. It will be absolute carnage for the likes of BBVA who are currently financing the likes of OAA and FTE cadets.... or should I say it will be carnage for many of the parents who have to step in and pay the monthly interest payments to keep their house!!! The sooner the banks stop providing insane amounts of financing for these courses the better off everyone will be.
I have said it before and will say it again most 18-20 yr olds don't have a clue what a burden 80-100k of debt will have on the next 10-15 years of their lives.... many are no doubt about to learn the hard way.
I believe this is the first "proper" downturn since this method of funding pilot training was introduced. In the early nineties I think BA and co still were running fully sponsored schemes. It will be absolute carnage for the likes of BBVA who are currently financing the likes of OAA and FTE cadets.... or should I say it will be carnage for many of the parents who have to step in and pay the monthly interest payments to keep their house!!! The sooner the banks stop providing insane amounts of financing for these courses the better off everyone will be.
I have said it before and will say it again most 18-20 yr olds don't have a clue what a burden 80-100k of debt will have on the next 10-15 years of their lives.... many are no doubt about to learn the hard way.
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I have said it before and will say it again most 18-20 yr olds don't have a clue what a burden 80-100k of debt will have on the next 10-15 years of their lives.... many are no doubt about to learn the hard way.
why would they care? do you know personal bankrupt?
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They will also care when their desperation for paid work slashes new entry T's & C's and subsequent career climb companies T's & C's to such a point where their income won't even service their debt.
Keeps your eyes open kiddies, it's happening right now.
Keeps your eyes open kiddies, it's happening right now.
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...but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.
Do not contemplate training now or in the next 18 months at least!