Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
bitmore I agree overall he hasn't been good for the industry but as I said its a bit stupid to blame one man in this whole state of affairs.
The attack on pilots conditions started well before MOL came on the scene and unfortunately it started with the arrival of accountants in airlines. Look at the US after deregulation of the market. The current pilot market in the states is woeful and we have that to look forward to! Its probably fortunate that its taken so long to get here but slowly but surely we are heading that way. We even have new names for furloughing! Pay for type rating and line training etc all have been in the states for ages are now commonplace here now as well.
Who to blame? Pilots for allowing it to happen or management for doing what their employees allowed them to do, or passengers for wanting the cheapest possible seat at all costs? Or perhaps wannabes willing to sell their soul for the fabled chance to sit in a jet or FTO's for selling a dream at ridiculous costs so that the guy then had no option but to take the only offer on the table?
If you could answer that you would be a great man. Personally I think we all have to share some of the blame!
Now as WWW said back to topic.
PS WWW good job on trying to teach the new guys on the perils of spending mum and dads houses on dreams sold by a car salesman
The attack on pilots conditions started well before MOL came on the scene and unfortunately it started with the arrival of accountants in airlines. Look at the US after deregulation of the market. The current pilot market in the states is woeful and we have that to look forward to! Its probably fortunate that its taken so long to get here but slowly but surely we are heading that way. We even have new names for furloughing! Pay for type rating and line training etc all have been in the states for ages are now commonplace here now as well.
Who to blame? Pilots for allowing it to happen or management for doing what their employees allowed them to do, or passengers for wanting the cheapest possible seat at all costs? Or perhaps wannabes willing to sell their soul for the fabled chance to sit in a jet or FTO's for selling a dream at ridiculous costs so that the guy then had no option but to take the only offer on the table?
If you could answer that you would be a great man. Personally I think we all have to share some of the blame!
Now as WWW said back to topic.
PS WWW good job on trying to teach the new guys on the perils of spending mum and dads houses on dreams sold by a car salesman
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Gentlemen i want to remind you that it takes 2 to tango! MOL maybe an 
but the pilots who jumped right in to pay for their TR are not exactly free of sin either 
Anyhow back to the thread, www i wanna thank you and the rest for making me see the light and hold off my training for 4-5 years
sshheeesshhh were in a mess 
but the pilots who jumped right in to pay for their TR are not exactly free of sin either Anyhow back to the thread, www i wanna thank you and the rest for making me see the light and hold off my training for 4-5 years
sshheeesshhh were in a mess
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A friendly welcome?
Hello all,
I am new here and having read thoroughly (more or less) this entire thread i have one simple question - mostly aimed at those who seem to be in the know e.g. WWW et al.
When?
Having endured (and i mean endure!) as a graduate in the financial services for the past 1.5 years - i have now decided to leave the rat race having realised that no one (short of being a disgraced bank chief) will make money there these next few years.
Disgruntled?
Only slightly... I have managed to accrue some valuable experience and contacts in finance and have even managed to pay half of my student loan back as well as saving a tidy £20,000 - all whilst maintaining most of my integrity and bearing fostered by my alma mata (the #1 UAS)
So being a recent graduate + 2.5 years UAS experience (60-70 hours grob + wings) and £20,000 in the bank earning close to negative interest - when do you recommend i take up OAA and 'follow the dream' ???
I should throw this in here now, a friend of mine left to study OAA 1.5 years ago and after months of interviews scored a wonderful job at a recognised airport flying routes into europe - evidence that there is hope for anyone tenacious enough to go toe to toe with the interview boards!!
p.s. any advice on what my flying options are are ofcourse welcome!
I am new here and having read thoroughly (more or less) this entire thread i have one simple question - mostly aimed at those who seem to be in the know e.g. WWW et al.
When?
Having endured (and i mean endure!) as a graduate in the financial services for the past 1.5 years - i have now decided to leave the rat race having realised that no one (short of being a disgraced bank chief) will make money there these next few years.
Disgruntled?
Only slightly... I have managed to accrue some valuable experience and contacts in finance and have even managed to pay half of my student loan back as well as saving a tidy £20,000 - all whilst maintaining most of my integrity and bearing fostered by my alma mata (the #1 UAS)
So being a recent graduate + 2.5 years UAS experience (60-70 hours grob + wings) and £20,000 in the bank earning close to negative interest - when do you recommend i take up OAA and 'follow the dream' ???
I should throw this in here now, a friend of mine left to study OAA 1.5 years ago and after months of interviews scored a wonderful job at a recognised airport flying routes into europe - evidence that there is hope for anyone tenacious enough to go toe to toe with the interview boards!!
p.s. any advice on what my flying options are are ofcourse welcome!
Last edited by FOD_FATHER; 24th Mar 2009 at 18:06. Reason: identity
At the top of this page I posted a table which shows that previous severe economic crisis have house prices taking 5 years to reach their nadir.
I'd take house prices as a reasonable proxy for airline profitability and aim to be job hunting 5 years from the start of the house price crash. Which would be Sept 2012. Three and a half years from now to graduation. Start an Integrated therefore in 2 years time at the earliest. Start modular now but don't do a Multi, IR or ATPL exam for a couple of years.
Its not a brilliant, deeply reasoned plan but its something to hang your hat on.
The trick is not to acquire the time-expiring and expensive elements of your training too soon before the chance of a job becomes reasonable.
WWW
I'd take house prices as a reasonable proxy for airline profitability and aim to be job hunting 5 years from the start of the house price crash. Which would be Sept 2012. Three and a half years from now to graduation. Start an Integrated therefore in 2 years time at the earliest. Start modular now but don't do a Multi, IR or ATPL exam for a couple of years.
Its not a brilliant, deeply reasoned plan but its something to hang your hat on.
The trick is not to acquire the time-expiring and expensive elements of your training too soon before the chance of a job becomes reasonable.
WWW
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I'm not sure about timelines, but my better half works in The City. Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight. For that last year these chaps have been rather melancholy. Of course, these are the same people who managed to get it wrong in the first place. 
PS. Crossing with another thread, I recently secured two FI job offers with relative ease. Not exactly airline flying but, in the current environment, it is free flying.
PS. Crossing with another thread, I recently secured two FI job offers with relative ease. Not exactly airline flying but, in the current environment, it is free flying.
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I agree, i would also gauge house prices to be a reasonable and likely indicator of a households expendable cash thus the UK's economy and therefore an airline's profitability.
In which case, my next question is which courses/school? and is modular really the way forward?
I have interviews/selection for CTC and OAA both next month. This is for full time on-site based courses - shall i tell them "no thank you, but see you in 3 years time?"
On an economic note, I have never known a time where the idea of air travel was more prevalent and rife than it is now. With package holidays and prices of flights becoming increasingly competitive and the emergence of cheaper oil/fuel (oil futures) - when coupled with the sheer volume of people just wanting to throw in the towel and escape the UK holiday (over worked families)/travel (unemplyable grads)/permanently relocate (the disgruntled!!) surely this surge is helping somewhat to bolster the airline's balance sheets - after all they cant be operating in the red when they fill all the seats - can they?
p.s. this also works the other way round - as the prospect of foreigners visitng the UK increases due to advantageous exchange rates - again the airlines should be in line to benefit...?
Perhaps we can all spend our way from this mess?!!
(a foolish believer...)
In which case, my next question is which courses/school? and is modular really the way forward?
I have interviews/selection for CTC and OAA both next month. This is for full time on-site based courses - shall i tell them "no thank you, but see you in 3 years time?"
On an economic note, I have never known a time where the idea of air travel was more prevalent and rife than it is now. With package holidays and prices of flights becoming increasingly competitive and the emergence of cheaper oil/fuel (oil futures) - when coupled with the sheer volume of people just wanting to throw in the towel and escape the UK holiday (over worked families)/travel (unemplyable grads)/permanently relocate (the disgruntled!!) surely this surge is helping somewhat to bolster the airline's balance sheets - after all they cant be operating in the red when they fill all the seats - can they?
p.s. this also works the other way round - as the prospect of foreigners visitng the UK increases due to advantageous exchange rates - again the airlines should be in line to benefit...?
Perhaps we can all spend our way from this mess?!!
(a foolish believer...)
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I have just recently moved into an apartment on a new development. I happen to know that the builders halted the development in June 2008.
I would like to be optimistic - and I may be reading too much into it - but building restarted last Monday.
Any positive sign is very welcome at the moment - no matter how small.
I would like to be optimistic - and I may be reading too much into it - but building restarted last Monday.
Any positive sign is very welcome at the moment - no matter how small.
Now I hate to dampen spirits but two point swim to the fore of my furrowed brow.
1) Easter is the MAJOR highlight of the property selling/buying year. More property changes hand in Easter than at any other time. It is the July/August of the of the airline industry. It is the Boxing Day of the High Street retailers. If nothings moving at Easter then woe for the rest of the year. As such all reports of upturns, sales, increasing interest need to be taken in context.
2) Just like the stock market has little rallies all the way down the collapsing slope so does the housing market. In the early 1990s house prices took over 6 years to go from peak to trough but there weren't ever more than two consecutive quarters of decline for most of that period. Its a process of falls and slight recoveries, followed by steeper falls. Green shoots, false dawns - all part of the usual picture I'm afraid. Gross mortgage lending in Feb 2009 was still the dropping and still back in the 1950's. The number of sales (mostly of 45% discounted flats to bargain hunting landlords) is unimportant compared to the monthly gross lending figure. The huge Vested Interests in the property market will spin any pebble of positive data and they're good at it. After all, they were very convincing to most people that there couldn't possibly be a crash...
The property market is screwed, still going down and won't stop until we're 40% off.
WWW
1) Easter is the MAJOR highlight of the property selling/buying year. More property changes hand in Easter than at any other time. It is the July/August of the of the airline industry. It is the Boxing Day of the High Street retailers. If nothings moving at Easter then woe for the rest of the year. As such all reports of upturns, sales, increasing interest need to be taken in context.
2) Just like the stock market has little rallies all the way down the collapsing slope so does the housing market. In the early 1990s house prices took over 6 years to go from peak to trough but there weren't ever more than two consecutive quarters of decline for most of that period. Its a process of falls and slight recoveries, followed by steeper falls. Green shoots, false dawns - all part of the usual picture I'm afraid. Gross mortgage lending in Feb 2009 was still the dropping and still back in the 1950's. The number of sales (mostly of 45% discounted flats to bargain hunting landlords) is unimportant compared to the monthly gross lending figure. The huge Vested Interests in the property market will spin any pebble of positive data and they're good at it. After all, they were very convincing to most people that there couldn't possibly be a crash...
The property market is screwed, still going down and won't stop until we're 40% off.
WWW
'Sick' aviation industry on a flight path to $4.7bn losses, warns IATA
The aviation industry is "structurally sick" and heading for a $4.7bn (£3.2bn) net loss this year, the director general of the International Air Transport Association has warned.
By Alistair Osborne, Business Editor
Last Updated: 8:07PM GMT 24 Mar 2009
Giovanni Bisignani said that, in the space of just three months, IATA had revised down December's forecast of $2.5bn losses to reflect "the rapid deterioration of global economic conditions".
Industry revenues are now expected to fall by 12pc, or $62bn, to $467bn in 2009 – far worse than the decline seen after the 2001 terrorist attacks when revenues fell $23bn to $306bn, a 7pc decli....
'Sick' aviation industry on a flight path to $4.7bn losses, warns IATA - Telegraph
Hells teeth. You couldn't get it spelled out any more clearly really.
WWW
ps - did someone around here last year say that the oil price was a sideshow and that it would be falling demand that was going to be the main event or am I getting confused?
The aviation industry is "structurally sick" and heading for a $4.7bn (£3.2bn) net loss this year, the director general of the International Air Transport Association has warned.
By Alistair Osborne, Business Editor
Last Updated: 8:07PM GMT 24 Mar 2009
Giovanni Bisignani said that, in the space of just three months, IATA had revised down December's forecast of $2.5bn losses to reflect "the rapid deterioration of global economic conditions".
Industry revenues are now expected to fall by 12pc, or $62bn, to $467bn in 2009 – far worse than the decline seen after the 2001 terrorist attacks when revenues fell $23bn to $306bn, a 7pc decli....
'Sick' aviation industry on a flight path to $4.7bn losses, warns IATA - Telegraph
Hells teeth. You couldn't get it spelled out any more clearly really.
WWW
ps - did someone around here last year say that the oil price was a sideshow and that it would be falling demand that was going to be the main event or am I getting confused?
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"I'm not sure about timelines, but my better half works in The City. Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight. For that last year these chaps have been rather melancholy."
I can tell you the focus in the city at the moment is firmly on surviving the next round of jobs cuts that will be coming in the next 2-3 weeks.
It is end of the first financial quarter and the knife is about to fall again. With headcount already down c30-40% at most big investment banks another 10% means that if you were "average" last year (in a pool of individuals with "3A stars" and a 1st class degree as many folks have) you are now sat in the firing line.... on a positive note we are probably 2/3rds of the way through the job cuts in the city so surviving the next wave of headcount reduction will be a relief for many.
As for the bear market rally... the last time we saw 7-8% moves in a day on the major market indices like we saw this week was back in the Great Depression. Volatility is a sign of uncertainty in markets and whilst I hate to p8ss on your parade this is a bear market rally.... just that.... give me the 1-2% moves on a daily basis that we are used to in "normal" times.
When we have paid down or inflated away c20-30% of the debt we have accumulated we will be in better shape. Buy a house now if you like.... if you can get 30-40% off the asking price
I can tell you the focus in the city at the moment is firmly on surviving the next round of jobs cuts that will be coming in the next 2-3 weeks.
It is end of the first financial quarter and the knife is about to fall again. With headcount already down c30-40% at most big investment banks another 10% means that if you were "average" last year (in a pool of individuals with "3A stars" and a 1st class degree as many folks have) you are now sat in the firing line.... on a positive note we are probably 2/3rds of the way through the job cuts in the city so surviving the next wave of headcount reduction will be a relief for many.
As for the bear market rally... the last time we saw 7-8% moves in a day on the major market indices like we saw this week was back in the Great Depression. Volatility is a sign of uncertainty in markets and whilst I hate to p8ss on your parade this is a bear market rally.... just that.... give me the 1-2% moves on a daily basis that we are used to in "normal" times.
When we have paid down or inflated away c20-30% of the debt we have accumulated we will be in better shape. Buy a house now if you like.... if you can get 30-40% off the asking price
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Interestingly, she tells me that there is an optimistic feeling that commencement of recovery is in sight.
Airline losses forecast to hit $4.7bn in 2009
The outlook for airlines is worsening, says the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which is doubling its estimate of the industry's losses in 2009 to $4.7 billion (£3.1 billion), due to rapidly deteriorating economic conditions.
Demand for air travel is falling everywhere, says IATA, except in the Middle East but even there - where traffic is expected to grow by 1 per cent - losses will mount because of a 3.8 per cent increase in airline capacity.
Across the globe, IATA is forecasting that airlines will suffer a $62 billion decline in revenue in 2009 to $467 billion, almost three times the decline registered after the September 11 attacks and the health scares in Asia.
Between 2000 and 2002, the airline industry suffered a $23 billion fall in revenue.
Demand for air travel is falling everywhere, says IATA, except in the Middle East but even there - where traffic is expected to grow by 1 per cent - losses will mount because of a 3.8 per cent increase in airline capacity.
Across the globe, IATA is forecasting that airlines will suffer a $62 billion decline in revenue in 2009 to $467 billion, almost three times the decline registered after the September 11 attacks and the health scares in Asia.
Between 2000 and 2002, the airline industry suffered a $23 billion fall in revenue.
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Fair point Lurking... banking is like engineering... there are many different areas of speciality. Unfortunately this moronic government lumps them all in together and blames "bankers" per se as the source of all evil to direct attention away from their own failings.
For example in engineering you have mechanical, chemical, production, civil engineers etc etc... in banking you have retail bankers, corporate bankers, wealth management advisors, hedge funds, investment banks, private equity, even specialist charity bankers etc etc.... all very very different roles.
In many ways blaming certain bankers for the collapsing financial system is like blaming the plumber who put in a toilet when a factory burns down..... pathetic
Also I can tell you that EVERYONE who was in someway repsonsible for this mess is already out of a job.... except for 1 individual.... I even know his address.... 10 Downing street....
For example in engineering you have mechanical, chemical, production, civil engineers etc etc... in banking you have retail bankers, corporate bankers, wealth management advisors, hedge funds, investment banks, private equity, even specialist charity bankers etc etc.... all very very different roles.
In many ways blaming certain bankers for the collapsing financial system is like blaming the plumber who put in a toilet when a factory burns down..... pathetic
Also I can tell you that EVERYONE who was in someway repsonsible for this mess is already out of a job.... except for 1 individual.... I even know his address.... 10 Downing street....
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Unfortunately this moronic government lumps them all in together and blames "bankers" per se as the source of all evil to direct attention away from their own failings.
1) those that created the credit products and sold them to house buying punters who couldn't afford them
2) those who de-risked those products
3) those who unwittingly bought extremely risky products
4) those that saw the whole thing unfolding and betted against those risks.
1, 2 and 4 were in the US, 3 were most US and European banks. Given that most of the the people who created and traded these products couldn't see what was unfolding (those that did kept quiet, they were making billions), it is highly doubtful that any government could have done anything about it other than change the rules which was never going to happen.
As an aside, Alex's posts strike a cord with me, he is absolutely correct that experts are by and large fake, charlatans who feign knowledge but who in reality are clueless and consequentially dangerous. They all got it wrong, even Mr Buffet so what chance does some unknown minor league fund manager or some witty Times report have. Give up with the literal news links and read between the lines.
Personal opinion: Europe is in a bad way, the UK appears finished the US will come out of this first and strongest. But don't underestimate the banks, they'll make things work for them and subsequently for you and I...eventually. In the world of finance and industry, the government always has been and always will be nothing more than a new F/O on the jump seat hanging on to the tail.
I've been a life long labour voter but not anymore! Conservatives are my party of choice.
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Sociolistes don't disagree with a word you have said.
Unfortunately it is the government though that sets the rules.... unfortunately the average IQ of government official is someway below that of the average bank employee.
Agree UK is screwed for a number of years... even the BoE is admitting it (see Kings comments yesterday). Avaiation industry is in a mess... even the IATA admit it.
This game in "the City" is all about information.... some get it faster than others due to better access etc. Whether you are an "expert" or not is irrelevent.... you take the information you get and interpret it yourself and make your own mind up. Pprune is just another source of "information" take it or leave it....
My gripe with Alex's posts is that often they provide little "information".... other than to say "you aren't experts"....maybe but at least folks try and provide information from a variety of sources that enable folks to formulate their own view.
Also he works for a flight training organisation with a vested interest in getting bums on seats to pay the mortgage..... he could offer insights as to number of students passing through the system, conversations he has with airlines as to likely recruitment needs etc.... but he chooses not to.... maybe because it wouldn't be good for business.
Unfortunately it is the government though that sets the rules.... unfortunately the average IQ of government official is someway below that of the average bank employee.
Agree UK is screwed for a number of years... even the BoE is admitting it (see Kings comments yesterday). Avaiation industry is in a mess... even the IATA admit it.
This game in "the City" is all about information.... some get it faster than others due to better access etc. Whether you are an "expert" or not is irrelevent.... you take the information you get and interpret it yourself and make your own mind up. Pprune is just another source of "information" take it or leave it....
My gripe with Alex's posts is that often they provide little "information".... other than to say "you aren't experts"....maybe but at least folks try and provide information from a variety of sources that enable folks to formulate their own view.
Also he works for a flight training organisation with a vested interest in getting bums on seats to pay the mortgage..... he could offer insights as to number of students passing through the system, conversations he has with airlines as to likely recruitment needs etc.... but he chooses not to.... maybe because it wouldn't be good for business.
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Brown
If GB annoys you at least you know that someone (party politics aside) has said what you might like to say 
Click play on the video.
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