Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise. This is why a goverment guarantee of toxic assets doesn't neccessarily mean a loss to the taxpayer of that amount.
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This is why a goverment guarantee of toxic assets doesn't neccessarily mean a loss to the taxpayer of that amount.
however my chums that work within certain financial insitutions in the city disagree with the above and think the taxpayer will lose money 
A truly awful budget as i'm going to be taxed at 50%
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Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise. This is why a goverment guarantee of toxic assets doesn't neccessarily mean a loss to the taxpayer of that amount.
Hopefully not too long, but I stand by my opinion of late 2009 / early 2010 that I stated a few months' ago on this forum.
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Boeing and Airbus lose orders as airlines cut back
Boeing lost more aircraft orders than it gained during the first three months of this year as struggling airlines cut spending.
The American aerospace group said that it had booked orders for 28 new aircraft but lost 32. Profits in the first quarter of this year halved to $610 million (£420 million).
Since the end of last month Boeing's order book has moved back into the positive after Gulf Air confirmed an order for an extra eight 787 Dreamliners, worth about $2 billion at list prices.
Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, sold 22 aircraft in the first quarter but lost orders for 14.
The American aerospace group said that it had booked orders for 28 new aircraft but lost 32. Profits in the first quarter of this year halved to $610 million (£420 million).
Since the end of last month Boeing's order book has moved back into the positive after Gulf Air confirmed an order for an extra eight 787 Dreamliners, worth about $2 billion at list prices.
Airbus, the European aircraft manufacturer, sold 22 aircraft in the first quarter but lost orders for 14.
Comment: Taste of fear
There is no magic formula for getting through this crisis except the tedious but essential attention to detail at every level. As one chief executive observes: "Managing in a downturn is a completely different skill." The to-do list in the past year or so, for virtually all types of carrier, has run down cost cuts, pay freezes, job cuts and capacity reduction. Apart from the first line of the list, this is not natural territory for low-cost carrier managers.
Interesting stuff
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Early days but if this Swine Flu outbreak gathers pace it could be another nasty knock to the aviation industry..... 
SARS was a bloomin nightmare for Asia!
SARS was a bloomin nightmare for Asia!
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Thomson cancels Mexico holidays
Holiday operators Thomson and First Choice have cancelled their flights to Mexico due to the outbreak of the swine flu virus that has claimed 152 lives.
The companies, both owned by TUI Travel, said they has cancelled planned flights to Cancun from Manchester and Gatwick airports.
The companies, both owned by TUI Travel, said they has cancelled planned flights to Cancun from Manchester and Gatwick airports.
BBC NEWS | Business | Thomson cancels Mexico holidays
A picture paints a thousand words..
Selection stages have been reduced. Fees increased. These people are desperate for Wannabes to keep on signing up to the dream. The dream is now a nightmare. No jobs, just being pimped to various airlines for trial periods. Barely paid then discarded for the next batch.
This time it will be much much worse than the terrible times for pilots in the 5 years of the early 1990's house price crash (note during those 5 years house prices rose in one third of all months - leading every time to claims of green shoots and recovery..)
No recovery until after the Olympics I'm afraid. Keeping your ATPL and IR(M) current until all that time is what needs to occupy the wannabe mind. For those wishing to escape the currency cost its simple, don't get current for a few years and therefore don't start the clock ticking.
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Selection stages have been reduced. Fees increased. These people are desperate for Wannabes to keep on signing up to the dream. The dream is now a nightmare. No jobs, just being pimped to various airlines for trial periods. Barely paid then discarded for the next batch.
This time it will be much much worse than the terrible times for pilots in the 5 years of the early 1990's house price crash (note during those 5 years house prices rose in one third of all months - leading every time to claims of green shoots and recovery..)
No recovery until after the Olympics I'm afraid. Keeping your ATPL and IR(M) current until all that time is what needs to occupy the wannabe mind. For those wishing to escape the currency cost its simple, don't get current for a few years and therefore don't start the clock ticking.
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Whilst my doctor friends tell me this Swine Flu outbreak is a little over blown it seems it still has the ability to kick the airline industry in the "soft and dangly" bits..... arguably could not be happening at a worse time... there will be more airline failures/layoffs..... 
Swine flu: Companies impose travel ban on staff - Telegraph
Swine flu: Companies impose travel ban on staff - Telegraph
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What's wrong Alex things not working out for wanabees as rosey as the picture you had been painting??
Please please share with us all the good news for wanabees that you have been gathering in recent weeks about rising traffic numbers and a "growing pilot shortage" etc etc......
How about the latest IATA stats for March for starters.... Load Factors Drop as Passenger Demand Falls - Freight Stabilises
Please please share with us all the good news for wanabees that you have been gathering in recent weeks about rising traffic numbers and a "growing pilot shortage" etc etc......
How about the latest IATA stats for March for starters.... Load Factors Drop as Passenger Demand Falls - Freight Stabilises
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Excellent picture.
I love the the little light "Beacon of Hope" attracting little fishes only to find themselves in the path of being eaten up whole!
I take it the beacon of hope is the FTO right!
I love the the little light "Beacon of Hope" attracting little fishes only to find themselves in the path of being eaten up whole!
I take it the beacon of hope is the FTO right!
All airlines ?unprofitable? in first quarter | Personal Investor | Citywire
Yes Alex, I'm back, and this time with treble the bandwidth!
;-)
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All airlines ‘unprofitable’ in first quarter
By Nicholas Paler | 09:06:12 | 28 April 2009
UK airlines saw shares drop in early trading after a warning from Citigroup that all the carriers in Europe would be loss-making in the first quarter of 2009.
In a note which further punished the sector following yesterday's swine flu outbreak, Citi said it expected to see record losses across the board when airlines revealed their first three months of trading, because of a sharp fall in business travel and air cargo, a passenger decline and the timing of the Easter holiday.
Citi – which added there may be a possible recovery in 2010 – also said most airlines would likely make a loss in 2009 as a whole, with easyJet and Ryanair among just four profitable businesses.
Citi said: 'We expect a collective operating loss of €1.8 billion in 1Q09. Underlying revenue decline expected to be 10%, driven by 20-25% revenue falls in B2B, an 8% overall passenger decline and later timing of Easter.
'All airlines are expected to have been unprofitable.'
It also warned of more cost cutting and capacity reductions to come, adding that of the three UK listed airlines, British Airways may need to raise financing via an equity raising by 2010.
Citi added legacy fuel hedges – where airlines have agreed a deal to buy oil at a certain price which is higher than current levels – were another burden on the sector.
While leaving its rating unchanged on BA and Ryanair, Citi also cut easyJet to a ‘hold’ from a ‘buy’.
By Nicholas Paler | 09:06:12 | 28 April 2009
UK airlines saw shares drop in early trading after a warning from Citigroup that all the carriers in Europe would be loss-making in the first quarter of 2009.
In a note which further punished the sector following yesterday's swine flu outbreak, Citi said it expected to see record losses across the board when airlines revealed their first three months of trading, because of a sharp fall in business travel and air cargo, a passenger decline and the timing of the Easter holiday.
Citi – which added there may be a possible recovery in 2010 – also said most airlines would likely make a loss in 2009 as a whole, with easyJet and Ryanair among just four profitable businesses.
Citi said: 'We expect a collective operating loss of €1.8 billion in 1Q09. Underlying revenue decline expected to be 10%, driven by 20-25% revenue falls in B2B, an 8% overall passenger decline and later timing of Easter.
'All airlines are expected to have been unprofitable.'
It also warned of more cost cutting and capacity reductions to come, adding that of the three UK listed airlines, British Airways may need to raise financing via an equity raising by 2010.
Citi added legacy fuel hedges – where airlines have agreed a deal to buy oil at a certain price which is higher than current levels – were another burden on the sector.
While leaving its rating unchanged on BA and Ryanair, Citi also cut easyJet to a ‘hold’ from a ‘buy’.
Yes Alex, I'm back, and this time with treble the bandwidth!
;-)
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