Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
It is apparent to many that things are as bad as I was predicting 18 months ago. Not so many people realise that things are going to get worse still and in fact the really painful phase is still ahead rather than behind us. The next 18 months when the unemployment balloons from 2 to 3 million is the part which is most painful and most destructive. Even sound companies will be taken down.
Remember than in every recent recession several airlines, both large and small, have gone bust. This recession will be no different. The very early failures of XL and a few transatlantic business airlines were not IT. IT is still to happen.
The difference this time is that the industry may very well decide that it will continue to hire Wannabes. But they will not be paid, will be for a fixed term contract and may well have to pay their own type ratings. The costs of this model on top of £80k basic training fees would seem to be prohibitive but its amazing how deeply into debt Wannabes seem able and prepared to go.
Only a fool would train now.
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Remember than in every recent recession several airlines, both large and small, have gone bust. This recession will be no different. The very early failures of XL and a few transatlantic business airlines were not IT. IT is still to happen.
The difference this time is that the industry may very well decide that it will continue to hire Wannabes. But they will not be paid, will be for a fixed term contract and may well have to pay their own type ratings. The costs of this model on top of £80k basic training fees would seem to be prohibitive but its amazing how deeply into debt Wannabes seem able and prepared to go.
Only a fool would train now.
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Who knows really? But it has to be at least a year. If I could turn back the clocks I would look to come out Nov/Dec 2012......maybe later. And I wouldn't do it integrated. I would very possibly not have done it at all. I would however have the PPL/IR for pleasure. But that's me. There is only one way this industry is going. I would strongly recommend not busting your balls to find a way to train integrated right now, even if it is a 'sponsorship'.
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Financial and Aeronaughtical.
In order to make a decision you need to take on board all advice and opinions, all knowledge and facts. PPRUNE is a tool to aide that. So ask away.
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Fair enough and no, given the standard of some individuals training they probably wouldn't.
It isn't meant to be positive or negative, just realistic, and, as I am sure you and anyone else who isn't delusional or who doesn't have a reason to give you false confidence will know, now is a REALLY negative time in all (I am sure not ALL) industry, especially aviation.
It isn't meant to be positive or negative, just realistic, and, as I am sure you and anyone else who isn't delusional or who doesn't have a reason to give you false confidence will know, now is a REALLY negative time in all (I am sure not ALL) industry, especially aviation.
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Thats what I was doing, trying to get some information, no such thing as a stupid question apparently. Whatever route I take it would not be for at least another year anyway, I might also not do the integrated way it is however the way that appeals to me the most currently. I came into some money a while ago, which is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on which way you look at it so any loan that I would take out for training would not be huge. Which is another reason that integrated, and also the nature of it appeals to me. Asking questions and peoples opinions on here is part of my research
Also don't get the joke.
Also don't get the joke.
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Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, just because you have it doesn't mean you have to blow it. You don't get a better product by going integrated. Approved Modular at somewhere like FTE is just as good and cheaper.
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Of course I understand that, like I said i'm and in no way committed to integrated but it does seem an appealing way to do it. The intensive and full time nature of it would suit the way that I like to work.
I suppose the reason I asked is because I read a lot of don't train now, if you have to do it go modular and take it nice and slow. There isn't much advice for people who are thinking about an integrated course as to some ballpark ideas about when they may be a viable option once more. I was intresting in hearing views about that, it may be the case that it is just to difficult to say but if you don't ask......
I suppose the reason I asked is because I read a lot of don't train now, if you have to do it go modular and take it nice and slow. There isn't much advice for people who are thinking about an integrated course as to some ballpark ideas about when they may be a viable option once more. I was intresting in hearing views about that, it may be the case that it is just to difficult to say but if you don't ask......
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next time it'll be aero-naughty-antics. Sun/Mirror readers' and editors' own style of 'fun' for headings. Perverting English - that's what I call it.
Now I know why aviation is so alluring to all the teenagers and in many cases blocks any traces of critical thinking left.
I was forced to postpone my plans to finish up my rotary training until further notice (who knows when..) due to recent changes in economy and only postponing my planned airplane training meant to start this autumn only because of my Uni studies.
But then, I have deep sympathy for all the wannabe jet jockeys and recent 200h+ grads now and over next few years. I would not waste my hard-earned money on CPL/MEIR, UK CAA fees for ATPL theory and other fairly pointless stuff right now. (= in other words, the idea of being sensible modular student)
Yeah, do train. Do save for your PPL, see if you like it. Have fun on weekends/time off, take your friends up, helping you with rental fees.
If you really want to fly for living, you research your career. Nothing stops you from flying for fun until then. So you postpone ATPL theory with CPL/IR module until better times.
Makes sense? It should.
ukdy:
Well, separating wheat from chaff MAY include reading first post of a very long thread. You're not around PPRuNe long enough or haven't read most of this thread to find out that the OP (original poster) was having a laugh about similar thread and this is just unofficial 'Part 2' of it. It's probably meant to catch an eye of starry-eyed wannabe as well.
Now I know why aviation is so alluring to all the teenagers and in many cases blocks any traces of critical thinking left.
I was forced to postpone my plans to finish up my rotary training until further notice (who knows when..) due to recent changes in economy and only postponing my planned airplane training meant to start this autumn only because of my Uni studies.
But then, I have deep sympathy for all the wannabe jet jockeys and recent 200h+ grads now and over next few years. I would not waste my hard-earned money on CPL/MEIR, UK CAA fees for ATPL theory and other fairly pointless stuff right now. (= in other words, the idea of being sensible modular student)
Yeah, do train. Do save for your PPL, see if you like it. Have fun on weekends/time off, take your friends up, helping you with rental fees.
If you really want to fly for living, you research your career. Nothing stops you from flying for fun until then. So you postpone ATPL theory with CPL/IR module until better times.
Makes sense? It should.
ukdy:
Well, separating wheat from chaff MAY include reading first post of a very long thread. You're not around PPRuNe long enough or haven't read most of this thread to find out that the OP (original poster) was having a laugh about similar thread and this is just unofficial 'Part 2' of it. It's probably meant to catch an eye of starry-eyed wannabe as well.
Its really this simple.
In the boom times train at the fast, expensive, place and get yourself quick into a hungry for pilots airlines.
In the bust times train at the slow, cheap, place and get yourself as-and-when into anything that flies which isn't a school and might lead onto an airline.
We are in a bust.
Soon there will 15,000hr Boeing training captains applying for your job flying rubber dog poos out of Doncaster.
Really.
WWW
ps AND you would be a fool to start commercial training now. A fool.
In the boom times train at the fast, expensive, place and get yourself quick into a hungry for pilots airlines.
In the bust times train at the slow, cheap, place and get yourself as-and-when into anything that flies which isn't a school and might lead onto an airline.
We are in a bust.
Soon there will 15,000hr Boeing training captains applying for your job flying rubber dog poos out of Doncaster.
Really.
WWW
ps AND you would be a fool to start commercial training now. A fool.
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The W.H.O has today raised the threat level of a Swine Flu pandemic to 5 (out of 6). Knowing how the World's press like to hype things up, even without a serious outbreak it probably won't be long before people start to rethink their travel plans. If there is a pandemic declared then the governments of the World will be rethinking the travel plans of all of us.
Not really a great time to be investing £50-£100k in a CPL.
Not really a great time to be investing £50-£100k in a CPL.
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Swine flu is a sideshow - this is the real issue at hand (FT):
"US economy shrinks 6.1 per cent
The US economy continued to contract in the first quarter of this year as business investment collapsed in the face of eroding global demand.
Preliminary commerce department figures showed on Wednesday that US gross domestic product declined by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, after declining by 6.3 per cent during the fourth quarter of last year. The decline was worse than the 4.7 per cent that economists expected and marks a slight improvement from the fourth quarter contraction, which was the sharpest since 1982."
I notice that my predictions of a few months' ago (recession until Q1 2010 at least) seem to be playing out exactly as I thought...
"US economy shrinks 6.1 per cent
The US economy continued to contract in the first quarter of this year as business investment collapsed in the face of eroding global demand.
Preliminary commerce department figures showed on Wednesday that US gross domestic product declined by 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, after declining by 6.3 per cent during the fourth quarter of last year. The decline was worse than the 4.7 per cent that economists expected and marks a slight improvement from the fourth quarter contraction, which was the sharpest since 1982."
I notice that my predictions of a few months' ago (recession until Q1 2010 at least) seem to be playing out exactly as I thought...
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Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise.
Classic distressed assets are illiquid until the market bottom is reached. You are right - many will return to reasonably value, but the profile of the valuation certainly plays out for worse first.
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Not all toxic assets will have to be written off. They don't neccesarily represent defaulted mortgages, they may be long term mortgage backed securities or CDOs of currently low or uncertain value. They affect balance sheets in the short term, and the banks want to get rid of them, but their value may increase as liquidity improves and property prices rise.
very true
and
totally misguided
Shome consistency please, or are there two RE-HEATs?
If you're saying that the value only increases as liquidity improves, I think I said that.
Last edited by Alex Whittingham; 30th Apr 2009 at 08:54.
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True to your comment that the losses in some won't arise, and untrue to the comment of liquidity = rising prices first.
Yes, apologies - it was a confusing response, but you quote out of context - I first said "Very true, Alex, but of course you have to find the bottom of the market first - that only occurs when you have liquidity, and we have not yet reached that point. You don't generally see price rises in illiquid markets that are in distress.".
Didn't help that I forgot that I had already responded though, I admit.
Yes, apologies - it was a confusing response, but you quote out of context - I first said "Very true, Alex, but of course you have to find the bottom of the market first - that only occurs when you have liquidity, and we have not yet reached that point. You don't generally see price rises in illiquid markets that are in distress.".
Didn't help that I forgot that I had already responded though, I admit.
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Embraer sees "faint signals" of new commercial activity
Embraer is cautiously optimistic that it has seen the worst of the global economic crisis and that its commercial aviation business will start improving in a few months.
The Brazilian airframer is seeing "faint signals of some activity", said Embraer president and chief executive Fred Curado during a conference call to discuss the firm's first quarter net loss of $23.4 million.
The commercial landscape is "definitely more encouraging than the last time we spoke", he adds.
The Brazilian airframer is seeing "faint signals of some activity", said Embraer president and chief executive Fred Curado during a conference call to discuss the firm's first quarter net loss of $23.4 million.
The commercial landscape is "definitely more encouraging than the last time we spoke", he adds.
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And yet yesterday Cessna shelved production of its new mid size aircraft.
Cessna loss is competitors? gain
Cessna loss is competitors? gain