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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 17th Jun 2009, 17:09
  #2521 (permalink)  
 
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KLM recruits pilots for down-to-earth duties

Two jobs the pilots are being asked to cover are “baggage recovery agents” in the arrivals hall and “hospitality agents” in the airline’s business class lounges.
For those who do not want to stray too far from their usual jobs, there are also vacancies to operate the bridges that connect aircraft to the terminal buildings. Or, for a more physical challenge, pilots can be in charge of taking oversize hand luggage and pushchairs from passengers before they board.
FT.com / Companies / Airlines - KLM recruits pilots for down-to-earth duties

interesting
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Old 19th Jun 2009, 10:52
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Airbus and Boeing concur on likelihood of 2010 recovery

Airbus and Boeing may have endured their worst Paris air show for a generation sales-wise, but both were unanimous in their belief that the end of the gloom is in sight.
"It feels like we're bouncing off the bottom," says Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Scott Carson. "It feels to us like the middle of next year is when we will see growth return to the industry."
Airbus's chief executive Tom Enders concurs: "We think [orders] will pick up again next year."
Carson cites the latest economic data that Boeing tracks for his upbeat view, but caveats this with the warning that "there is certainly no certainty in being able to predict the future".
However, both airframers have effectively written off 2009 from an orders perspective. Carson says the industry faces "a different year" to the boom times during each of the 12 months that preceded it, while Enders says that it is "obvious" that orders will come down dramatically from the 900 it booked in 2008.
Airbus and Boeing concur on likelihood of 2010 recovery
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Old 19th Jun 2009, 12:25
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We seem to always read the same articles quant
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Old 19th Jun 2009, 12:27
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It seems that in the last recession everyone was seeing green shoots but this time around we're very much bumping along the bottom.

The UK government is borrowing £30,000,000,000 a MONTH at the moment. Something is going to give. It will be structural.


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Old 19th Jun 2009, 17:04
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The above post about KLM asking flight crew to take up other jobs as bridge operators and baggage reclaim staff is troubling. My brother (BA Cabin Crew) has just showed me his lovely email from Willy Walsh asking him to volunteer to work shifts for free and this is bad enough......but for KLM to ask guys and girls that have invested tens of thousands of pounds of their own money in their training to now go and lugg bags around is a joke. Generally I'm ALWAYS first to muck in when the proverbial hits the fan but there has to be a line drawn somewhere. As for volunteer work for a month, its all a bit rich for Mr Walsh to bleat on about giving up one month's salary himself if everyone else will...he earns £61,000 a MONTH, my brother earns little over £1000....rediculous idea. Whats that to him! How about he gives up 6 months salary, I doubt it would adversely affect his personal fortune and I'm sure he could just about cover the bill's with the remaning £366,000!!! Sorry guys....soap box back in the cupboard!

Generally I would be the first to bash the doom mongers but I would have to agree with WWW on this one...we are just bumbling along the bottom with no genuine sign of growth for now. I think a W shaped recession is on the way, we're at the bottom right now with things getting marginally better but I fear it may swan dive again.

As for the level of borrowing hitting £30,000,000,000 a MONTH.....f*** me how long is this country going to be crippled trying to repay the money....I heard an interesting comment quoted on PM's question time the other day.....aparantly a large percentage of the increased public spending is actually going on servicing the ever increasing debt interest rather than putting more nurses on wards and coppers on the street. What a mess we're in! Nice work Gordie!

As for the orders placed at the Paris Air Show......Roll's Royce signed up Gulf Air for a £920m engine order and accompanying maintenance contract....and Airbus got an order for £1.2b from Qatar Airways....both orders are good news for the UK economy.....Airbus make their wings in Chester and Rolls Royce Engines are made up near Derby I believe. Boeing suffered though, they have had 65 orders placed so far this year but have had 65 orders cancelled....so actually they have netted zero sales for 2009 so far


Last edited by Flying Squid; 19th Jun 2009 at 17:24.
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Old 19th Jun 2009, 18:15
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Dont have the quotes but papers yesterday were talking about the inevitable interest rate rise coming soon.

There is no doubt that plenty of folk are going to be completely and utterly phinancially in the near future.

Keep the hatches battened down . . . . . .
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Old 19th Jun 2009, 20:57
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3 years ago the political debate was about how Gordon Browns government was going to be a record 41 BILLION in debt on budget day. This sum in now borrowed not annually but every 6 weeks.

It is borrowed from the future by selling government debts today (gilts).

It is effectively a promise sold today that future governments will be able and willing to tax future UK workers and hand that money PLUS INTEREST to the gilt holder at the pre-agreed rate.

Todays government is mortgaging tomorrows taxpayer at the rate of £30bn a month. With roughly 35 million taxpayers that is about £800 a month each. Plus interest.

If your monthly tax bill went up by £1000 a month would you cope? No. So it will have to be spread. Over a generation. Like a mortgage. So we'll end up paying 175% of the amount borrowed just like you do on a 25yr mortgage at 5%.

Your taxes will go up, harshly, and stay up.


They have to.



“The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it.”

John Kenneth Galbraith , economist, author, Money: Whence it came, where it went - 1975, p15




"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."

Lord Acton (1834-1902) English historian



"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."

Mayer Amschel Rothschild, International Banker




"When a government is dependent upon bankers for money,
they and not the leaders of the government control the situation,
since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes.

Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism
and without decency; their sole object is gain."

Napoleon Bonaparte




"If all the bank loans were paid, no one could have a bank deposit, and there would not be a dollar of coin or currency in circulation. This is a staggering thought. We are completely dependent on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash, or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system. When one gets a complete grasp of the picture, the tragic absurdity of our hopeless situation is almost incredible -- but there it is."

Robert Hemphill. Credit Manager, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta




“’The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was ever invented.

Banking was conceived in iniquity and born in sin. Bankers own the Earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough money to buy it back again...

Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, and they ought to disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in. But if you want to continue to be slaves of the banks and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit’.”

Sir Josiah Stamp Director, Bank of England 1928-1941
(reputed to be the 2nd richest man in Britain at the time
)

Josiah Stamp

Josiah Stamp, 1st Baron Stamp - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia




I don't like to but it is relevant;


A definite factor in getting a lie believed is the size of the lie. The broad mass of the people, in the simplicity of their hearts, more easily fall victim to a big lie than to a small one.'

Adolf Hitler





The current spending blitz is equal to what would be required to fight world war two at the time. The world war two debt was paid off finally just a few years ago. The banks need people in debt. The banks need nations in debt. Cue the X-files theme...


;-)


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Old 20th Jun 2009, 07:40
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I expect 2 - 3 years time to be the nadir.

It is the coming winter and winter on 2010-11 that history tells us will bring the most significant airline failures. Historically airlines go bust after, sometime a couple of years after, the recession has ended. Many - most - airlines are currently burning their cash reserves to continue operating. The name of the game is to stay in it until enough rivals exit the marketplace and the opportunity for yields return.

In this money bleeding competition those airline that had nothing but debt to start with have already died right at the starting bell. At the moment the competition is in full swing. Plenty of airlines are looking pasty and feint and the harsher winter market conditions will see a some of them die. Next year Europe and the UK will see rocketing unemployment as the recession enters its nasty phase. The money bleeding competition will continue and by the winter after next even some of the largest, healthiest players, will be getting very dizzy.



I think being an airline pilots wannabe is a little like playing the stockmarkets. Don't focus on trying to time the booms as its impossible and the market is irrational. Instead try to avoid the busts which have somewhat more predictable characteristics. This is one of the biggest busts for decades.

A brief perusal of the last recession of the early 1990's




1990

1990 - Inflation 9% for the year - not looking so good.

Employment - unemployment became the issue again when after 44 months of successive falls unemployment started to rise again in April 1990 to 1,606,600. Pace of increase quickened from there on. But unemployment still lower than many of competitors (France 8.9%, Italy 9.6%); couldn't match performance of Germany Japan and US though (same old story?).



1991

1991 - Still recession. Despite continuous promises from politicians - no recovery in sight. Growth for the year -2% (that's a minus, not a dash!). Unemployment heading up as well, for the same reason - 2.6m out of work by the end of 1991, but inflation is coming down - 4.6% for the year, so perhaps the recession had a positive effect!

Growth in Europe was slowing rapidly, though UK still beat them all (in the wrong direction). Gradual shift away from Thatcherism, with less emphasis on public spending cuts and the first stages in the abandonment of the Poll Tax.


1992

1992 - Still recession - still various protestations of recovery from politicians! GDP declined by 1 %. Combined effect of the recession raised unemployment to 2.87m - more than 50% of them out of work for more than 6 months, and a third for more than a year. Businesses collapsed at a rate of about 1,200 per week.

But inflation fell to 3% - helped by interest rate cuts. House prices continue to fall, and `negative equity' to rise.

Election year - won surprisingly (?) by Tories. PSBR rising rapidly as recession continues and fuelled by pre-election spending increases - £38bn for 1992.

Interest rates cut further to 7% by end of the year, but partly thanks to UK's departure from the ERM - "Black Wednesday" 16th September 1992. Government raised interest rates to 15% at one stage of Black Wednesday to try to defend the £. Concerns about the UK economy and the French referendum on Maastricht send pound down to its bottom limit. Fears that sterling would be devalued fuelled significant selling of the £ and buying of the Deutschmark. As a result of departure from ERM, interest rates are cut significantly.

Business failures ended the year at 62,767.



1993

1993 - Recovery - GDP growth at 1.75% for the year. Investment still very low at 15.2% of GDP (public and private investment).

Earnings growth well down, but unemployment peaked at over 3m in January, though fell to 2.81m by end of the year. Inflation fell to a 30 year low of 1.2% - one of lowest rates in Europe (only Denmark and Irish Republic lower).

PSBR - £50bn - help! Spending increases of £30.7bn and tax falls of £20.2bn to blame. Much of it recession, but by no means all.



1994

1994 - Recovery, but still a lack of a real `feel-good' factor. Growth is healthy at 4%, and the output gap is closing considerably from the recession of the early `90's. However, investment remains stubbornly low, particularly for this stage of the cycle - only 15% of GDP (peaked in '89 at 20% of GDP).

Inflation remains low at just over 2%.

Unemployment falling well to under 2.5m. OECD produced a major report analysing worldwide unemployment.




From a Wannabes perspective you didn't want to be job hunting until 1995 at best. By 1997 things were starting to really hum and by 1999 jobs were everywhere. ALL the risk is on entering the marketplace TOO EARLY.


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Old 20th Jun 2009, 14:32
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Ok, I apologise for getting a bit strong but your comment about there ever being a pilot shortage in the next 2-3 years riled me, your comment about the Middle East riled me and your comment about the trainees laid off being 50 -60 year olds riled me. You have perhaps been ill informed.

Your reasoning for starting training is almost identical to the reason I did, almost to the word so I can see you aren't out to annoy. But things you need to understand are:

How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.
How about never giving up on anything that you can't go a day without thinking about?

That accounts for about 5-10% of it. You missed out on the other two biggest factors - LUCK and TIMING.

Pessimism and hopeless attitudes do not help man or beast
Too true. But realism helps promote the age old adage of 'prevention is the best form of cure' - pre-empt and prevent. Optimism CAN lead to failure of the highest order - the higher you go, the harder you fall. You could end out broken if you go into this too optimistic.

I am someone who believes in hope and faith and what is meant to be is meant to be
Careful you do not apply that to an aircraft. I have heard stories from VERY reliable sources of pilots, in your favorite place the Middle East, who were quoted as very capable aviatiors, having an emergency and just letting go of the controls and saying 'it is in the hands of Allah now'. The pilot instructing very quickly took control. Now I know that is not what you perhaps meant but you can see how being fatalistic demonstrates a lack of understanding of the bigger picture.

Don't ignore the facts that don't fit with your dream - it's a dangerous game.
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Old 20th Jun 2009, 17:36
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BA asking people to work for free and cutting wages, KLM asking pilots to work as baggage handlers, who knows what else is going on in other airlines. All this is happening in the summer!

Imagine what will happen to the airlines in the winter, especially with rising oil prices and interest rates

My ATPL training will be done at a leisurely pace without borrowing and with the knowledge that i may never get a flying job. If BA go under then i may as well stop the training and buy a microlight.
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Old 20th Jun 2009, 17:59
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Prophead, good to hear someone in training with a more sensible, realsitic view on things.

All this is happening in the summer!

Imagine what will happen to the airlines in the winter, especially with rising oil prices and interest rates
Too true.
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Old 20th Jun 2009, 18:17
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I bumped into a Terminator earlier on today, he said he was looking for an easyjet captain aged approx 34yrs & miserable. something to do with Judgment day?!
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Old 20th Jun 2009, 23:13
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How about determination. Drive. Energy. Willpower. Persistence. Fearlessness. Self-confidence. Resolve.
How about never giving up on anything that you can't go a day without thinking about?

Total waste of time to an industry that doesn't care.

Join BALPA or face apathy.


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Old 20th Jun 2009, 23:38
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Total waste of time to an industry that doesn't care.

Join BALPA or face apathy.
AMEN! ( I wish it wasn't the truth!)
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Old 21st Jun 2009, 07:28
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It was close to midnight when Willie Walsh finally emerged from Waterside, British Airways’ sprawling Heathrow headquarters. The airline’s chief executive blinked in the lights of the waiting television crews, cleared his throat, and started to speak, his voice trembling.
“I am sorry to say that despite our efforts today we have been unable to secure further funding from our banks. The cash drain we sustained as a result of the rolling programme of industrial action by cabin crew and ground staff means we can no longer continue as a going concern. British Airways has this evening been put into administration.”
Could British Airways really go bust or not? - Times Online

Branson to ministers: let BA go bust

Sir Richard Branson has rubbed salt in British Airways’ wounds by declaring BA practically worthless, and urging the government to resist any attempts to bail it out.
Branson’s comments will incense BA management, which this week will hold vital talks with cabin crew and ground staff over pay cuts, lay-offs and changes to working conditions aimed at saving £100m a year.
Branson to ministers: let BA go bust - Times Online

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Old 21st Jun 2009, 10:12
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Miserable?

My lifes a dream mate.

Its real life for Wannabes thats depressing.


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Old 21st Jun 2009, 12:02
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Its real life for Wannabes thats depressing.
I'm sorry WWW but i am one of those wannabes you speak off and i am quite happy thank you very much

I'll wait for the upturn even though that maybe 3-5 years away in the meantime i'll complete my training and keep current
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Old 21st Jun 2009, 12:09
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With the greatest respect though quant, you say you started on £50K a year as a quant so you aren't the average wannabe. The average wannabe feels they MUST train integrated and tap someone up with the burden of a huge debt.
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Old 21st Jun 2009, 15:43
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With the greatest respect though quant, you say you started on £50K a year as a quant so you aren't the average wannabe. The average wannabe feels they MUST train integrated and tap someone up with the burden of a huge debt.
fair enough however i define an average wannabe to be someone that aspires to get into the left hand seat..

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Old 21st Jun 2009, 16:31
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Yeah but we aren't talking about ambitions, we are talking about ones ability to fund training and risk manage the whole process.
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