CAC40 and the DJ is going up since several weeks now.
end of the "depression"?
Possibly a bit of optimism in the banking sector but don't forget that consumer optimism and their ability to spend lags a looooooong way behind. The difficulty that current airlines are facing is a dramatic loss of forward bookings, especially in the premium cabins and thus a loss of forward, 'projectable' yield. This leads to difficulty in securing short term credit and an increase in the interest rate payable on current loans. A short upswing on the stock market does not alleviate this. Don't forget that 'short term credit' for an airline includes the ability to pay for services such as ground handling, fuel and landing fees on account. Toward the end of Alitalias woes they were having to pay cash up front for all these things. Difficult and embarrassing to do!
So, whilst it may look as if we are actually scraping the bottom of this recession as far as the numbers go, we have a long way to go with a steep climb. Once out we will see a sea of financial mire that is the Governments abysmal financial handling of the past decade with public debt of 100% of GDP which will scare off investors in Britain and make it a long uphill struggle to get the public finances in check. Until they are private business, especially such supposed environmental demons as airlines who are easily taxed and targeted by loud, small, vocal campaigner groups, will continue to be heavily taxed.
Air Europe and Dan Air went bust AFTER the recession.
Sadly I think we will still see a few more after a low yield summer followed by another stark winter. Q4 2010-2011 could well see the start of a pickup however. Wait and see.