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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 11th May 2009, 10:58
  #2341 (permalink)  
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On reflection, JB007 - I think I will take off what remains of my rose tints, and go along with your assessment....

I know loads of boys and girls down here in the sandpit who would come back in a trice if the UK/Europe was more promising... and they'll get the seats first, as you rightly say...

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Old 11th May 2009, 11:13
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I'm back working in the city, following completion of my training. For me personally, this has been a perfect illustration of both the need for and relief of having, a good backup plan. Alright, I'm very fortunate in that I have 15 years of [relatively] senior business management behind me, so I don't have debt either. As good a place to be as a newbie can hope for at the moment I'd say.

However, whilst a sidenote I'd reiterate to anyone looking to train right now, what I really wanted to say is that my gut feel - based on my experience of the city - is that there is a cautious optimism starting to return. I repeat, this is my opinion and not based on any facts, but generally working in the city, you do develop a reasonable feel for this.

This is a modicum of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy prognosis, but as twinaisle and GSB state, there is a long, long hill to climb back to anything like prosperity. Further, I have experience in general business, but not the aviation world - one thing which is very clear is that there are certain rules and idiosyncrasies that effect aviation, that won't apply in the field of my experience, thereby reducing what one can take from it.
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Old 11th May 2009, 11:15
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Actually, I don't think they will. The only people being hired at the moment in the UK are:

Easy Jet taking on ab-initio cadets to do summer flying programs via CTC
Ryanair taking on cadets who fund their TR and line training

In the future, Long Haul requirements will of course be met via experienced F/Os, but it ain't happening on SH.

Experience, it seems, counts for very little - which will come as a rude awakening for those summer pilot with 400hrs on type. I wonder how all those XL pilots must feel. If it comes to BA enforcing CR on the bottom of the seniority list, it will be a poor outlook even for them (unless you are 777/747 rated and don't mind going abroad for your contract).
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Old 11th May 2009, 13:45
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That is a point I've made a couple of times now. Historically Wannabes were at the bottom of the pile of CV's on the Chief Pilots desks and experienced unemployed pilots were at the top. It therefore took a while into the recovery before jobs for low time pilots started to emerge.

However, it may be different this time.

If low time Wannabes are willing to pay for their own type rating, work extended periods 'on trial' on low wages or work seasonally then they may actually be the most desireable CV to hire. They would be flexible about moving to any base in any country as they don't have the kids or family home consideration. Their very high debt commitments keeps them very dependent on their company pay cheque every month.

The 20 yr old with £80k worth of debt willing to work for crumbs might actually finding a 'job' easier than those experienced pilots such as those ex-XL guys still looking for work.

Crazy world,



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Old 11th May 2009, 13:55
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Now if that happens in the future its discrimination. Low houred wannabees hired over experienced crew. I wonder if they would get away with it?
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Old 11th May 2009, 14:16
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Its not descimination if both have the qualifications required for the job. It is just based on an economic decision.

Will sure make for a nice atmosphere on the flight deck.
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Old 11th May 2009, 14:27
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Unfortunately its more like evolution rather than discrimination. When I started my PPL back in 2001 it was all about going instructing, then landing a turbo prop job and then making the "huge" leap to an all singing all dancing glass cockpit jet. That was the mantra that every FTO and recruiter spoke. Very very few jumped straight into the RHS of a jet, mainly the top Oxford/Jerez graduates that got picked up by BA.

Now days airlines are run by beancounters for the benefit of the stakeholders and not the training department. Whilst the chief instructor may rue the old days and roll their eyes at the loss of experience unfortunately they are given a set of rules to play with.

The reliability of new airframes and the backup safety systems that are in place today mean that aircraft don't just hit hills or fall out of the sky anymore. Its all a numbers game. With an ATPL and over 1500 hours on type my RHS job is not safe anymore and I would be foolish to think so. Who is to say that a wet leaser doesn't call up my company tomorrow undercutting us just to keep themselves busy. These wet leasers could be full of the 400hr line training brigade trying to buy themselves hours.
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Old 11th May 2009, 17:50
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If low time Wannabes are willing to pay for their own type rating, work extended periods 'on trial' on low wages or work seasonally then they may actually be the most desireable CV to hire. They would be flexible about moving to any base in any country as they don't have the kids or family home consideration. Their very high debt commitments keeps them very dependent on their company pay cheque every month.
Sounds to me like you have a gripe with Ryanair and other such airlines. If they are willing to speculate in order to accumulate and it suits the airlines then why not? Why else and how else would you fund yourself through any route of training, be it modular or integrated, if you were not sure that you'd have a job at the end? Ryanair are very clever in that regard. Their system means a lot will be encouraged to train because they know they have a good chance, all be it at an extra cost. But in the long run you get hours, experience and well paid.... Do you mind me asking what your backround and aspirations are in the aviation world?
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Old 11th May 2009, 18:12
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My aspiration is to become the next moderator after WWW joins the ayslum!
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Old 11th May 2009, 18:26
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But in the long run you get hours, experience and well paid....
No you get shafted.
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Old 11th May 2009, 18:44
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flying_shortly




Do you mind me asking what your backround and aspirations are in the aviation world?
The aspirations of others who are astounded by what you have written, are that they have the understanding, that you clearly do not have, of a long and PROSPEROUS working life...

You 'Pay-to-Work' Pilots are simply wrong...
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Old 11th May 2009, 21:23
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Flying_Shortly - as a Captain with a large airline and 10,000-odd hours in my logbook, my only aspiration, is to go part time and do something more interesting with my life. I've also been a Modular and Integrated flying instructor and had this role on here from back when email was a novelty.

What is happening now is pure exploitation based on nothing more than Wannabes continued willingness to self fund their career. Just how they manage to keep paying more and earning less each year is a mystery to me. The money at the end of it doesn't really justify it.

The more people go down the route of paying not only for a jet type rating but then working for peanuts on extended trial the worse things will become. Six months, a year, down the line and suddenly there's a new batch of Wannabes coming out of the system to replace you.

Eventually I suppose market forces will mean that there just aren't enough people willing AND able to fund themselves all the way through CPL/IR, ATPL, Multi, Type Rating, MCC, Line training and six months work experience followed by six months at Burger King followed by another summers work experience! <deep breath>

I just thought that by this stage in the house price crash, credit crunch and recession the market forces would have acted by now. The worlds an incredible place I guess.

Any Wannabe choosing to throw themselves headlong into this tragedy needs their Class One revoking.


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Old 11th May 2009, 21:32
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I am proceeding with ATPL training (Module 1 of theory for the mo) but will do the rest over 5 yrs. It's taken me 10yrs so far to get all the training that I have currently and I don't mind another 5. I have no debts and have managed my finances. I feel sorry for those who have just graduated, with very little chance of work and massive debts. Lets hope they can manage the repayments....

Patience and time is the key.
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Old 11th May 2009, 23:19
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The wages gained through flying are worth it. The average, even starting with Ryanair, are good by any standard. It beats what you'd get in most other industries for the same effort. How you get there and by what means is the business of the person involved. Don't you think?

I don't understand your concerns. Maybe, you might explain a bit better... Surely, you can't be against young people aspiring to a good job. Do you feel insecure in your position? How do you propose one enters the pilot job market by not paying for their training? With your logic nobody would work at all; risk of job loss, low wage by your reckoning and exploitation of the worker. How are you going to change things other than waffling on these forums?
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Old 12th May 2009, 04:46
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flying_shortly clearly you have an axe to grind but i suspect you will not find any sympathy with your current position are you a pilot?

www, JB etc are experienced pilots telling you how it is and it's people like you that are degrading my future terms and conditions (as well as your own! ). No i am not a pilot however i work for an airline and speak to pilots everyday and the message is the same.

If paying for a TR is what you want to do then please go ahead as no one here will stop you

I do understand that this is the way the wind is blowing and in one way or another you will pay through either a reduced salary or a bond but as long as the payment is not upfront and you are working off the cost of the TR i am ok with it

Some good news:

Hopes are mounting that the worst of the recession is over for Britain, after influential organisations and investors said that there were clear signs of economic recovery. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said yesterday there were indications that the country was experiencing a “pause in the economic slowdown”.
The multibillionaire investor George Soros echoed the positive forecast, saying that a meltdown of the world’s financial system had been averted. Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank, said that some countries had already moved beyond the worst of their recessions.
Activity in the British housing market has also picked up. Estate agents said that there were more inquiries from new buyers last month than at any time in the past ten years, as they were tempted out by the low prices and good weather. The upbeat mood was also evident on the high street, where like-for-like sales jumped by 4.6 per cent in April.
Worst of the recession may be over for Britain, says OECD - Times Online

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Old 12th May 2009, 04:48
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Flying shortly if you can't see that spending c£100k on integrated training + a type rating to join the likes of Ryanair is nuts all I can say is good luck to you.

Just ask yourself how you would feel after 2 years working at Ryanair when you have barely dented your massive pile of debt and you are flying very few hours because the company is preferring to use the "cheaper" newbies who are working for peanuts during a "trial period"..... you may have a slightly different perspective then.

Try looking at how much you are paid post cost of servicing debt/paying back training costs.... doesn't look so great then.
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Old 12th May 2009, 04:53
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flying_shortly please read the following thread:

http://www.pprune.org/interviews-job...laid-bare.html

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Old 12th May 2009, 08:10
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Personally, I sympathise and empathise with Flying_Shortly. This IS the way the wind is blowing!

A lot of people seem to be criticising new pilots without considering the position we find ourselves in. It's all very well to tell us to forget a career in Aviation until 2012 when the Industry picks up but for many of us that's not possible and not sensible until we've tried every avenue to get work. By all means, advise people to delay their training until things improve, but people who are already trained are faced with limited options.

REALITY CHECK FOR NEW PILOTS

1. The FI, Air Taxi, Turbo-prop, Jet route is still possible. You will still have to beg/borrow/earn £50,000 to pay for your training. Fortunately, this route is open to everyone because no-one will assess yor suitability for the ultimate Jet job. During the 5-10 years it will take to get to the Jet you will earn less than a secretary for most of the time. From this will come your living costs and loan repayments. In order to get a Jet job you will need a bit of luck and might still have to fork out for a Type Rating. You will gain favour with many on Pprune who believe this is the honourable route for wannabes wishing to become commercial pilots.

2. The Integrated course direct to Jet route is still possible. You will have to pass psychometric and aptitude tests and then beg/borrow/steal £70,000+ to pay for your training. Obtaining this loan will be difficult and very risky for your future. It seems the majority of graduates from these schemes do not obtain permanent employment, but this is speculation because few would bother coming onto Pprune to carp about it. Those who get jobs will be on reasonable wages; probably commensurate with the wages earned by modern day electricians or brickies. Provided they don't succomb to flexi-crew policies and bite the bullet after 6 months, these lucky pilots will earn decent money in the future.

3. The Modular or Integrated to Ryanair/Easyjet route is now possible, and fashionable. Naturally, as with the other routes, you will have to find the money for your training. That's £50,000 - £70,000. With Ryanair you will have to get through an interview and sim check; with CTC/Easyjet you will have an interview, psychometric and aptitude testing. Sure, this is not easy, but for the 'lucky' few you get a possibility of a job flying a Jet. The cost of your Type Rating will be borne by you. With Ryanair it's by getting a loan; with CTC/Easyjet it's by having low wages. Either way, your job security is low. As with Option 2. above, you risk flexi-crew policies but have reasonable prospects.

4. Join the Armed Forces. You won't pay for your training, except, possibly with your life in some foreign field. But that's very unlikely and you'll get to fly lovely aircraft for 10 years before you get fed up with service life and want a cushy Civvie job. You're then faced with getting your ATPLs and taking the plunge into the commercial job market. Unfortunately, your prospects are not as good as they would have been 20 years ago. Unless you're lucky and get picked up by one of the larger carriers (who aren't currently recruiting at all) you will be vying for a job with a low-cost carrier who may view you as too 'institutionalised' to fit into the company.

5. Now, this is the best option but is akin to winning the lottery. You get LUCKY and a friend or family member who happens to be Chief Pilot somewhere. This could be a Legacy Carrier, in Bizjets, or with any other airline or small/regional operator. In any case, you will have to have paid for all your training at a cost of £50-70,000+ and are unlikely to be charged for your Type Rating. Will you have job security? Probably not. The bean-counters won't care who you know and you risk flexi-crew policies etc. Nevertheless, your future is likely to be lucrative once you get past the first few years of low wages due to your training bond.

So, surely we're looking at choosing an option that best fits our individual circumstances. Each newly qualified pilot has a dream to become a commercial pilot. Many might not want the RHS in a Jet. Many do. And their dream is as valid as the dream once held by all the professional pilots on this forum. The Industry has changed, probably for the worst. That is not my fault; nor is it Flying Shortly's fault. We're just dealing with our reality and giving ourselves the best chance we can.


Edited to confirm that these are just my views.

Last edited by Mikehotel152; 12th May 2009 at 08:26.
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Old 12th May 2009, 08:17
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A word for those 'starting out' from someone who has been flying for the past 23 years. Not a 'wannabe' and I have no 'aspirations' as I have achieved everything I set out to do.

Back in the good 'ol days when a company required pilots it looked for licensed, rated pilots as its first choice. When those weren't available then the company looked at licensed, qualified pilots and, under the companies own steam, type rated them, based trained them if required and then line trained them to operate the companies aircraft on the line for the company to generate revenue. No 'pay for type rating', no 'bond' just required training for a qualified professional to be able to do their job.

As Flying_Shortly has so optimistically pointed out, in some companies the wages are, indeed, very good. This has led to an increase in the 'low houred' pilots seeking jobs with the airlines. Nothing at all wrong with that, everyone has to start somewhere. As the competition for jobs heated up a few organisations discovered that the natural wish to 'fly a big jet' could come with a hefty price attached. Thus was the paid for type rating born. The accountants wring their hands with glee and the board enjoy the raking in of money for a service that they, previously, had to pay for.

So, not only are junior pilots paying for their type rating, line training etc. They are then bonded at a lower wage for 5 years so that the companies involved can fully extract their blood. Add to this the 'pay for line training' and you have a disastrous recipe for the future. This has been seen time and time again in the Helicopter world where the masses of 'will fly gas turbine helicopters for free' brigades have driven the T's & C's of the normal line flying through the floor.

Where will career satisfaction go? What will be career progression when there is another pilot, more junior than you and with more money that wants your seat? Airline T's & C's are dictated by a pilots wish to move up from the light GA aircraft to the twin to the Turbo prop to the regional jet to the LH jet. This normally comes with a wage increase and a better lifestyle. Remove that wish to progress by flattening the wage curve and removing the lifestyle issues and the airlines will have no need to maintain good terms and conditions as their current pilot workforce will have nowhere to 'upgrade' to. The thrill of 'flying a jet' wears off after a while, trust me.

Airlines are cutting costs in every department. Anything that gives them the ability to CHARGE pilots to come to work to generate revenue for them has got to be fundamentally wrong. Add to that the requirement to pay for uniforms, ID cards, airport parking, meals during the duty day, water, tea and coffee etc. and you have one almighty mess that will take years to sort out.

I fly for a large national airline and we have many FO's from a certain employer who operates a scheme like the one above. They are the lucky ones, they say so themselves, as they have managed to get out into a reputable carrier. Sometimes, in a large airline, we lose sight of how it can be in these outfits and these FO's bring back a sense of how bad the system at the bottom has become.

To sum up, with the current downturn, pilots are looking for ever more desperate ways to get on the first rung of the ladder. That is human nature and in some respects has to be admired for tenacity. Sadly it is also human nature of some to take financial advantage of the same pilots for the gain of the company board members and investors. Until this unsavoury practice is knocked on the head and companies required to provide, safe, adequate training for their operators then there will continue to be an ever increasing pressure on the T's & C's throughout the industry. Sadly the 'wannabees' of today will be the Captains of tomorrow lamenting the loss and demise of a great industry.

You pays your money and takes your choice.
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Old 12th May 2009, 10:57
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wobble - A fantastic post. Thankyou for some sanity
However, the one thing I think that is missing from your post is the "how" you stop the rot. Unfortunately - regardless of the reality - airline flying is still perceived by those that don't know as aspirational and brilliantly paid.

Anyone that's involved in training or further down line knows the truth is far from this, but it's also way too easy for those who have only ever worked in aviation to perceive that it's better elsewhere.

To my mind, a very large chunk of the problem lies in that inherently pilots do not form a cohesive workforce. You rarely fly with the same crew twice and therefore there is a lack of loyalty to anyone other than yourself....the person you screw over by acting in your own interests (metaphorically - I doubt any individual pilot has the ability to screw over anyone literally) is just some faceless entity you will never meet. It's much harder to act in a selfish manner if the person you screw over is the good mate from the office you go for a beer with on a Friday night.

The problems all stem from a root cause of supply and demand...there are too many people willing to do the job, hence advantage CAN be taken of them. If there were only ever as many people available as needed, Ts and Cs would be far better.

For as long as we live in a "free" world, then it's impossible to stop the countless throngs of people wanting to train for the licence, so there will be the oversupply of new pilots until the Ts and Cs become so bad that people stop wanting to do it, unless something else is done.

Personally, I think that there needs to be more barriers to entry - without wishing to start the modular Vs Integrated debate, you can start training without even having a single GCSE pass if you have the money - that has to be wrong? and if we accept that and demand at least a base level of education as a pre-requisite to the issue of a CPL/ATPL then you've at least moved in the right direction to the redress of Ts and Cs
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