I'm as guilty as anyone of wanting to see the world through rose tinted specs, especially in these troubled times. But from where I sit in airline management, the future looks far from rosy in the short-medium term, and I would suggest to all you "don't worry, it is not as bad as you think" merchants out there that you pay heed to PPrune Towers and
WWW....
What we are seeing is the calm (believe it or not) before the storm.
Turn downs like this have the effect of "de chaving" low cost flights. The first stages of this process are already with us - premium cabins getting walloped as customers get more price sensitive, and businesses pull away from travel to cut costs. Then the ripple effect starts. First class punters fly Business. Business fly Premium. Premium fly economy. Economy fly low cost. And many low cost punters don't fly. Not a major issue for the low costs, they feel this effect last. But from the numbers, and from what WWW is reporting (and let's face it, he should know!) the low costs are starting to feel it. Uh oh.
Couple this with the thought that this should be the BEST part of the year - summer is coming up, people are starting (or rather should be starting) to book their holidays - and if they are not, god help us in the Autumn, when things really get hairy.
Will there be more carriers going to the wall? Yes. I have no doubt about it. I have my own thoughts on who, but I will keep those thoughts to myself, since I would hate to read on here about someone predicting the demise of my employer. Will the industry contract further? Yes. We will bounce back, we always do - but IMHO it won't be this year or even next. If you want to train and join the employment queue, carry on, but time it so that you are ready to fly in 2011, and you won't be far wrong.
Also - when you do get a job in 2011, remember that the next upturn will be followed, as sure as night follows day, by another downturn. This is one of the most cyclical industries in the world, so please have something to fall back on. It terrifies me that guys and girls in their low 20s are happy to take on shedloads of debt to train as a pilot, with no way of paying this off if they can't get a job that provides them with a steady income for 10+ years after....
Chin up boys and girls. We will recover. Just not for a while....
TA