Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Originally Posted by Flightless Falcon
i find it hard to understand how people can put times on when to go training and advice wannabes of this, when the economy experts including Alistair Darling cant even put a date or time period for how long this crappy economic situation will last for...
governments incompetence and self serving attitude.
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Good news everyone
WWWeasly wakka wakka welsh was wrong.
I can now confirm that oil will be below USD90 before the end of the year. Also, Gordon Brown will still be PM and his approval ratings will soar to 5 pc.
You are all still okay to buy property for now, prices will reverse and show an upturn from June next year.
HRH Harry will also be severely chastised and forced by an act of parliment to repay the taxpayers.
Good luck everyone, chin up, stay positive and look to the future.
I can now confirm that oil will be below USD90 before the end of the year. Also, Gordon Brown will still be PM and his approval ratings will soar to 5 pc.
You are all still okay to buy property for now, prices will reverse and show an upturn from June next year.
HRH Harry will also be severely chastised and forced by an act of parliment to repay the taxpayers.
Good luck everyone, chin up, stay positive and look to the future.
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Yep you're right good news oil at blah blah blah....
Would somebody care to explain how as a newly qualified fATPL with zero operational experience quite how you plan to leapfrog 450 zoom/futura experienced 73/75 & 767 pilot who will probably take the next two years to employ as their target employers are all looking for economic savings and redundancys and extra productivity from their current staff...
This is also assuming that we don't have any other airline casualties between now and then - which is at best unlikely andassuming the vast majority of the 450 will not wish to give up life as they know it and move to the sand pit.
To harp on about the oil price here when its already taken its toll on these people at best is a kick in the nuts.
3 to 4 years at least for it to pick up just as between 2001 and 2005, for those who have only subscribed to these hallowed pages since 2005 dig up some threads from the real dark times of 2002 and get a feel for what to expect...
The jobs section in flight this week was like a pamphlet and its nowhere near bottomed out yet
Would somebody care to explain how as a newly qualified fATPL with zero operational experience quite how you plan to leapfrog 450 zoom/futura experienced 73/75 & 767 pilot who will probably take the next two years to employ as their target employers are all looking for economic savings and redundancys and extra productivity from their current staff...
This is also assuming that we don't have any other airline casualties between now and then - which is at best unlikely andassuming the vast majority of the 450 will not wish to give up life as they know it and move to the sand pit.
To harp on about the oil price here when its already taken its toll on these people at best is a kick in the nuts.
3 to 4 years at least for it to pick up just as between 2001 and 2005, for those who have only subscribed to these hallowed pages since 2005 dig up some threads from the real dark times of 2002 and get a feel for what to expect...
The jobs section in flight this week was like a pamphlet and its nowhere near bottomed out yet
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Oil back below 100$/barrel
Sadly, as someone pointed out, the economy is something unpredictable.
But this decrease after the summer was predicted.
That makes the likes of WWW that predicted oil at surreal 200$/barrel by christmas look ridiculous.
Now they are predicting that it will be better in 2011 basing their assumptions on....? ...... ? ..... ? nil.
Do you even know why I mentioned 2011 while you were cheering the high oil prices and the housing crisis?
A little course on market prognoses:
Predicitions have to factor hundreds of factors taking into account different countries and markets. Any forgotten, miscalculated under or over estimated factor can change the picture by a certain factor depending on its importance. Every factor should therefore be given an adequate importance or "weight". Then there's the unpredictable that makes up most of the margin of error. Unknown factors can not be given a weight or an order of importance and therefore different realistic scenario's should be simulated giving for each scenario a result. The percentage of unpredictable can be calculated and together with the rest, be factored in the margin of error.
There's too many factors involved into predicting the pilot job market for 2009-2010 already. And even then, it can make such a huge difference because no one has all the information available at hand and the unpredictable is too big. The housing crisis in the UK is a very light factor for airlines compared to the dollar mini-bubble that is making some real damage.
For those in the UK that want to make a quick buck, monitor currency markets at this time. The euro currency is the best way to go. When the dollar mini-bubble bursts, the pound is likely to increase alot slower than the euro.
The governments are using the media and are probably trying to play the same games in Europe as the government did in the U.S. about potential recessions perhaps in a bid to slow down the excessive inflation.
But this decrease after the summer was predicted.
That makes the likes of WWW that predicted oil at surreal 200$/barrel by christmas look ridiculous.
Now they are predicting that it will be better in 2011 basing their assumptions on....? ...... ? ..... ? nil.
Do you even know why I mentioned 2011 while you were cheering the high oil prices and the housing crisis?
A little course on market prognoses:
Predicitions have to factor hundreds of factors taking into account different countries and markets. Any forgotten, miscalculated under or over estimated factor can change the picture by a certain factor depending on its importance. Every factor should therefore be given an adequate importance or "weight". Then there's the unpredictable that makes up most of the margin of error. Unknown factors can not be given a weight or an order of importance and therefore different realistic scenario's should be simulated giving for each scenario a result. The percentage of unpredictable can be calculated and together with the rest, be factored in the margin of error.
There's too many factors involved into predicting the pilot job market for 2009-2010 already. And even then, it can make such a huge difference because no one has all the information available at hand and the unpredictable is too big. The housing crisis in the UK is a very light factor for airlines compared to the dollar mini-bubble that is making some real damage.
For those in the UK that want to make a quick buck, monitor currency markets at this time. The euro currency is the best way to go. When the dollar mini-bubble bursts, the pound is likely to increase alot slower than the euro.
The governments are using the media and are probably trying to play the same games in Europe as the government did in the U.S. about potential recessions perhaps in a bid to slow down the excessive inflation.
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Would somebody care to explain how as a newly qualified fATPL with zero operational experience quite how you plan to leapfrog 450 zoom/futura experienced 73/75 & 767 pilot who will probably take the next two years to employ as their target employers are all looking for economic savings and redundancys and extra productivity from their current staff...
Futura leaves a big hole in the Spanish market, a hole that other airlines will fill in no time. Futura had 19 aircraft, of which probably 1 might have been used as replacement aircraft.
450 pilots is therefore an unrealisticly high number. On short/medium haul ops, 14 pilots per aircraft is a good average bringing the total down to about 19 x 14 = 266 pilots, almost half your number.
Of those 266 pilots, 133 are supposedly captains, 50 experienced F/O's.
Other Spanish airlines, Ryanair and Easyjet will fight for those 183 pilots and would recruit them even if that results in a small surplus of pilots. The LCC's have probably stopped recruitment (even if they are still increasing capacity) simply because they are waiting for such airline failures so that they can go up and grab those experienced but desperate pilots.
Really because some tend to think that Ryanair and Easyjet prefer to recruit ab-initio's to make extra money on the 25 000€ they pay. I think that it's rather because they have no choice and want to cover the cost of the TR and to some extent, line training. But such occasions as Futura is what they are really waiting for. Highly experienced pilots that will not cost much to train and that would accept the working conditions very easily are available for grabs...
Of course that impacts the job market of ab-initio's for a few months.
But there's many captains from Ryanair and Easyjet leaving for Dubai right now so I wouldn't worry too much.
Also, it looks like most of the 19 aircraft were leased. The aircraft will retun to the lessor and be forwarded to other airlines where new jobs will be created and pilots will be needed.
Just a point of order. I never predicted oil at $200 and was actually being widely vilified for saying that the oil price is a sideshow.
Its the HPC led recession that has been the object of my fears.
Both are getting worse.
Oil is a sideshow.
WWW
Its the HPC led recession that has been the object of my fears.
Both are getting worse.
Oil is a sideshow.
WWW
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scanafrica wrote:
Looks like you were right sa:
Oil rises on Opec production curb
up up and away
I can now confirm that oil will be below USD90 before the end of the year.
Oil rises on Opec production curb
Oil prices have risen to $104 a barrel in Asian trade, reversing earlier losses, after OPEC agreed to return to its late 2007 production levels.
up up and away
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The price is extremely volatile. You can watch it fluctuate anywhere in a $5 to $6 rate of change in as little as a 24 hour basis. Theres no surprise that todays announcement from Opec has caused a slight rise. Just as when the 2 recent hurricanes theatened output levels in the Gulf of Mexico, traders quickly pushed prices higher in the region of a $5 increase. No sooner had the weather sorted itself and the price fell sub $100. Having just looked at the price just now, its back at $103 with bent crude slightly less. It will be interesting to see what the close of trade brings today and over the next few days, that may give some indication as to where the trend is going, certainly for the interim period.
www,
I cant get my head around this 'sideshow' idea you keep referring to. Todays figures suggest soaring fuel costs have attributed to £3 billion losses with airlines this year. In 2001 fuel amounted to roughly 12% of total operating costs, that figure has now risen to roughly 35%. More airlines have already gone bust this year alone than ever did in the wake of 2001, yet worldwide load factor has increased by 1.9% in the last year so what on earth is the overiding factor that has caused such devastation??? Certainly forecasts are predicting further losses in 2009 and decreasing passenger deman due to ecenomic slowdown but you can hardly call oil a sideshow.
www,
I cant get my head around this 'sideshow' idea you keep referring to. Todays figures suggest soaring fuel costs have attributed to £3 billion losses with airlines this year. In 2001 fuel amounted to roughly 12% of total operating costs, that figure has now risen to roughly 35%. More airlines have already gone bust this year alone than ever did in the wake of 2001, yet worldwide load factor has increased by 1.9% in the last year so what on earth is the overiding factor that has caused such devastation??? Certainly forecasts are predicting further losses in 2009 and decreasing passenger deman due to ecenomic slowdown but you can hardly call oil a sideshow.
Last edited by MIKECR; 10th Sep 2008 at 09:00.
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WWW;
You should get Danny to give you a signature, something like "Listen You T***TS, I did not predict a $200 Barrel" , or before long you'll be the blamed for the entire industry slow down.
MIKECR;
Not totally sure if this is what WWW means when he says oil is a side show but I take it to mean that oil isn't the big issue here, it is the global economic problems that we are facing and closer to home the serious financial mess Gordon Clown has the country and it's people into. The scale of Brown’s broken economy | Coffee House
If like me you believe that spending in all sectors is going to be seriously reduced if no one has any spare money to spend, then industries such as the airlines are going to be badly effected. The government is running out of relatively short term quick fixes. They or someone else are going to have to sort out the mess they've got us into and that will take sometime. Oil is just a thorn in their side.
You should get Danny to give you a signature, something like "Listen You T***TS, I did not predict a $200 Barrel" , or before long you'll be the blamed for the entire industry slow down.
MIKECR;
Not totally sure if this is what WWW means when he says oil is a side show but I take it to mean that oil isn't the big issue here, it is the global economic problems that we are facing and closer to home the serious financial mess Gordon Clown has the country and it's people into. The scale of Brown’s broken economy | Coffee House
If like me you believe that spending in all sectors is going to be seriously reduced if no one has any spare money to spend, then industries such as the airlines are going to be badly effected. The government is running out of relatively short term quick fixes. They or someone else are going to have to sort out the mess they've got us into and that will take sometime. Oil is just a thorn in their side.
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I cant get my head around this 'sideshow' idea you keep referring to. Todays figures suggest soaring fuel costs have attributed to £3 billion losses with airlines this year. In 2001 fuel amounted to roughly 12% of total operating costs, that figure has now risen to roughly 35%. More airlines have already gone bust this year alone than ever did in the wake of 2001, yet worldwide load factor has increased by 1.9% in the last year so what on earth is the overiding factor that has caused such devastation???
How long does it take people to realise that any monkey can fill a plane - to do so profitably is an entirely different matter!
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Re Heat,
Thankyou, at least somebody realises where im coming from! Oil has already proved to be a bigger killer than any recession. Airlines will continue to go under for the timebeing, perhaps even one one of the big boys, but the fact remains...oil is not a sideshow. 12 % operating costs spiralling to 35% operating costs just about says it all. As Re Heat rightly says, you can fill a plane with seats but flying it at a loss will only last or so long before its tatties ove the side. Yes, the ecenomic downturn will also take its toll, but to put oil to some 'after thought' type problem is ridiculous
Thankyou, at least somebody realises where im coming from! Oil has already proved to be a bigger killer than any recession. Airlines will continue to go under for the timebeing, perhaps even one one of the big boys, but the fact remains...oil is not a sideshow. 12 % operating costs spiralling to 35% operating costs just about says it all. As Re Heat rightly says, you can fill a plane with seats but flying it at a loss will only last or so long before its tatties ove the side. Yes, the ecenomic downturn will also take its toll, but to put oil to some 'after thought' type problem is ridiculous
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Errrmmm...I know this is only one school but no, you can't get into Oxford (at least) in 6 weeks time. Even given the horrendous current market situation and continual doom and gloom (rightly, in fairness) STILL the earliest you can start at Oxford appears to be the February course...
ask.oxfordaviation.net • View topic - 2008 APPFO Courses Full
ask.oxfordaviation.net • View topic - 2008 APPFO Courses Full
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I don't think it's going to be anywhere near the scale of the problem that the airlines are facing in the mean time. It'll probably mean a relatively small increase in air fares and will be listed seperately to the cost of the ticket so people don't feel like they are paying anymore for their ticket just more in tax. (eg. I expect you know people who say, hey I got a really cheap flight for a quid, but the air port taxes were £30 it still cost them £31 in all but phsycologically they only paid a quid for the flight ).
Personally I don't think it will impact significantly on passenger numbers or that it will have the desired effect, it'll just be another revenue raiser, I expect MoL will manage to make money from it some how
Personally I don't think it will impact significantly on passenger numbers or that it will have the desired effect, it'll just be another revenue raiser, I expect MoL will manage to make money from it some how
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Soooooooooooo. Nobody seems to care about the EU airliners paying for CO2 emission taxes in 4 years. Isn't that even worse than oil price being sky high?
Eikido
Eikido
They are trying it now in AMS, and many many airlines are pulling out of there. Even El Al is considering moving its decades long (and corrupt) cargo operation down south to LGG.
If it happens, aviation will be discriminated compared with other industries. It will negatively impact some countries that rely alot on aviation and tourism and tthose countries will veto against it.
The EU is getting too much power anyways.
Some countries are about to do something about that...
Last edited by nich-av; 11th Sep 2008 at 02:36.