Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Clanger32 - I think you misunderstood the gist of my comment. Your comments on the characteristics of the 737 are true as far as I know but that doesn't mean basic stick 'n rudder techniques don't apply equally as well to the 737 as they do to smaller aeroplanes. That said, there are obvious exceptions to the rule.
Back to WWW and his words of wisdom.
Back to WWW and his words of wisdom.
Banking and Finance only? No flying? Aarrrrgh! Ok, fine, here's a poignant and interesting quote from a book I'm reading: The year reached almost the end of its third quarter under the promise and appearance of increasing prosperity, particularly in the United States. Extraordinary optimism sustained an orgy of speculation. Books were written to prove that economic crisis was a phase which expanding business organization and science had at last mastered. “We are apparently finished and done with economic cycles as we have known them”, said the President of the New York Stock Exchange... But…a sudden and violent tempest swept over Wall Street. The intervention of the most powerful agencies failed to stem the tide of panic sales. A group of leading banks constituted a millard-dollar pool to maintain and stabilize the market. All was vain.
The whole wealth so swiftly gathered in the paper values of previous years vanished. The prosperity of millions of American homes had grown upon a gigantic structure of inflated credit, now suddenly proved phantom. Apart from the nationwide speculation in shares which even the most famous banks had encouraged by easy loans, a vast system of purchase by instalment of houses, furniture, cars and numberless household conveniences and indulgences had grown up. All now fell together. The mighty production plants were thrown into confusion and paralysis…Today the grievous pangs of falling wages and rising unemployment afflicted the whole community, engaged till this moment in the most active creation of all kinds of desirable articles for the enjoyment of millions.
…A general contraction of trade in the face of unemployment and declining production followed…The general crisis brought with it acute monetary difficulties, and paralysed internal credit. This spread ruin and unemployment far and wide throughout the globe...The entire banking system of the [USA] was thrown into confusion and temporary collapse. Howeve, nobody starved in the English-speaking world.
Who said it?
Handling skills vs Airline flying.
Having had more than my fair share of flying with F/O's (and even Captains) who are essentially "skill less" away from pushing buttons, my feeling are that it is very disapointing and gives me no confidence in where this is going.
So little confidence in fact that even on long haul flights I find I cannot leave some of these guys alone at all. I am therefore confined to the "box" the entire flight. Many will think this is over-reacting but I can assure you that through experience, not to mention witnessing pilots who simply cannot fly a circuit, I have learned the hard way how some guys can get you into serious trouble very quickly when left alone!
My feelings are that the old way of building experience through pistons, charter, turbo-prop, small jet etc produced a much more rounded pilot. Applying oneself and hand flying the aircraft becomes second nature. 90% of your time can then be focused of the management of the a/c.
Unfortunately I see less and less of these qualities these days. What I see is newbees straight into a 737 and then up for command in 3 years. I cannot imagine where the confidence emenates from? Arrogance and ignorance together is a dangerous mix!
Having had more than my fair share of flying with F/O's (and even Captains) who are essentially "skill less" away from pushing buttons, my feeling are that it is very disapointing and gives me no confidence in where this is going.
So little confidence in fact that even on long haul flights I find I cannot leave some of these guys alone at all. I am therefore confined to the "box" the entire flight. Many will think this is over-reacting but I can assure you that through experience, not to mention witnessing pilots who simply cannot fly a circuit, I have learned the hard way how some guys can get you into serious trouble very quickly when left alone!
My feelings are that the old way of building experience through pistons, charter, turbo-prop, small jet etc produced a much more rounded pilot. Applying oneself and hand flying the aircraft becomes second nature. 90% of your time can then be focused of the management of the a/c.
Unfortunately I see less and less of these qualities these days. What I see is newbees straight into a 737 and then up for command in 3 years. I cannot imagine where the confidence emenates from? Arrogance and ignorance together is a dangerous mix!
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Ah, bugger, FrenchScotPilot got it...
Churchill was indeed referring to the crash of 1929. Isn't it sad how history repeats itself.
Churchill was indeed referring to the crash of 1929. Isn't it sad how history repeats itself.
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it will happen again and again
As far as I can tell, economics (and things like commercial aviation, funnily enough), as practised by the western world right now has to have periods of slump to correct for any periods of runaway expansion.
Boom and bust are dirty words in many quarters (well, bust is, anyway
), but it's the way the western world does it business right now, and for the last few decades. The trick seems to be a) figuring out when to get on the wheel for maximum personal benefit, and b) spotting when the tits up point is coming and putting yourself in a position to ride it out at a minimum personal loss.Of course, if the cycle doesn't come around again one day, what then?
Sleep tight, campers
JR
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I would like to warn you that it will take 6 years to recover to the same economic situation in 2008.
not only this, but, the worse will come for wanabe pilots. I expect 60%of TRTOs will be bust during these next 2-3 years.
general motor will be out soon with Chrysler, and more companies will go down.
if you are looking to start your training now, don't. Lot of chance that your school will shut down right after your deposit.
Sorry guys, I work with the best economists and the futur is not rosy at all.
not only this, but, the worse will come for wanabe pilots. I expect 60%of TRTOs will be bust during these next 2-3 years.
general motor will be out soon with Chrysler, and more companies will go down.
if you are looking to start your training now, don't. Lot of chance that your school will shut down right after your deposit.
Sorry guys, I work with the best economists and the futur is not rosy at all.
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err hello its called pay as you go! Mind you I think your right about TRTO's going bust, no bank will lend the money to do a type rating shortly, so its going to be down to the airlines to pay for ratings again which means less ratings will be completed especially in this environment!
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Sorry guys, I work with the best economists and the futur is not rosy at all.
Using the last recession as a guide house prices took from 1989 to 1996 to stage an inflation adjusted recovery to growth. John Major was talking about green shoots of recovery several years before sustained economic growth at levels above a single % year seen.
There were several stock market rallies and every third month house prices actually rose.
18 months in, history suggests we have quite a way to go yet. The really unpleasant phase is the unemployment spike which hasn't yet happened. It is starting to happen. See for example BT's announcement of yesterday making 10% of its employees redundant. Large employers up and down the land are starting to do this. Proper jobs, decent incomes, breadwinners all losing their jobs or desperately fearing it. Never mind a few poxy part time posts as Woolies. As I said earlier, in the last recession Dan Air and Air Europe (both in the top four biggest UK airlines at the time) went bust AFTER the recession technically ended.
We're a long way from a safe runway right now.
WWW
There were several stock market rallies and every third month house prices actually rose.
18 months in, history suggests we have quite a way to go yet. The really unpleasant phase is the unemployment spike which hasn't yet happened. It is starting to happen. See for example BT's announcement of yesterday making 10% of its employees redundant. Large employers up and down the land are starting to do this. Proper jobs, decent incomes, breadwinners all losing their jobs or desperately fearing it. Never mind a few poxy part time posts as Woolies. As I said earlier, in the last recession Dan Air and Air Europe (both in the top four biggest UK airlines at the time) went bust AFTER the recession technically ended.
We're a long way from a safe runway right now.
WWW
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As I said earlier, in the last recession Dan Air and Air Europe (both in the top four biggest UK airlines at the time) went bust AFTER the recession technically ended.
Dan Dair went bust because the industry started to boom!
Most of their business was charter work, which went when Tour Operators started up their own Airlines.. in droves. Added to that they had a hotch potch of different, old and uneconomical to maintain aircraft which added to their inevitable demise.
Air Europe (started by 2 Dan Air Directors!!), went down because their business plan was a sham. Under capitalised and chasing the wrong markets, with,… a parent Co which went bust for similar reasons.
Not good examples!
I do accept that times are hard and not a good time to start an integrated course.
By the way WWW, you asked, somewhat sarcastically, some time ago, how house prices were doing in Scotland.
Again, an example of reading what you want to read.
With a ‘half full’ approach to life, the BBC (slightly more accurate generally than the local evening rag you quoted), state that house prices in 7 Scottish regions are up. That said overall prices are down 6 to 8% YonY, not quite the 40% predicted and overall have still been a good investment for those not in for the short term.
Still, I agree it’s not good.
City house prices drop by 10 per cent - Edinburgh Evening News
I thought house prices in Edinburgh never went down? Curious.
Yeah - Dan and Air Europe had their faults as airlines and after a recession they both went bust. There are several household name airlines in the UK with equally faulty business plans.
Either this time its different or this recession will result in a few more, and bigger, airline failures. Time will tell all. I remember that life was VERY VERY tough for Wannabes and unemployed pilots right through to 1995. Which in todays money would be 2012.
WWW
WWW
City house prices drop by 10 per cent
Published Date: 05 May 2009
HOUSE prices in Edinburgh have fallen by 10 per cent in the last year.
Published Date: 05 May 2009
HOUSE prices in Edinburgh have fallen by 10 per cent in the last year.
I thought house prices in Edinburgh never went down? Curious.
Yeah - Dan and Air Europe had their faults as airlines and after a recession they both went bust. There are several household name airlines in the UK with equally faulty business plans.
Either this time its different or this recession will result in a few more, and bigger, airline failures. Time will tell all. I remember that life was VERY VERY tough for Wannabes and unemployed pilots right through to 1995. Which in todays money would be 2012.
WWW
WWW
With the current budget deficit, public spending cuts of 20% are going to be required to get government spending under control. That'll be a couple of million jobs lost then. Therefore we could be looking at unemployment hitting 5 million
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Comments are now becoming foolish, I accept there are those who offer a sound and logical view point, such as WWW and others. Nevertheless, such statements as 5 Mil unemployed is way way from the mark. Frankly scare tactics!
Come on chaps keep posts sensible...
Come on chaps keep posts sensible...