Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Perhaps we should start a second thread, something along the lines of 'vote to close the "Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us" ramble. Leave it open for 2 days and let the majority decide
Sean Dillon - you are a long time critic and I don't much like you either but this thread IS the most important one on the Wannabes forum because every day I get pm's and emails asking just how some teenager should best waste their parents re-mortgage.. So it stays.
If I cared about a PPRuNe popularity contest I'd be really upset and halfway through my second hankie by the harsh words on this thread. But guess what - I'm a big boy and you can just f%c5 off this forum, stay, pick a fight or be quiet. I really don't care and neither does 99% of the audience.
But I speak the truth. I was right. I am right. I will be right. And at the end of the day I'll still be here ten years from now just as I was here ten years ago. Unlike those that slag me off. The weren't here. They won't be.
Oh and, of course, there is always the option of not clicking, not scrolling and not reading a thread that you find not interesting... you 5uckwit.
The sun still shines chaps.
WWW
If I cared about a PPRuNe popularity contest I'd be really upset and halfway through my second hankie by the harsh words on this thread. But guess what - I'm a big boy and you can just f%c5 off this forum, stay, pick a fight or be quiet. I really don't care and neither does 99% of the audience.
But I speak the truth. I was right. I am right. I will be right. And at the end of the day I'll still be here ten years from now just as I was here ten years ago. Unlike those that slag me off. The weren't here. They won't be.
Oh and, of course, there is always the option of not clicking, not scrolling and not reading a thread that you find not interesting... you 5uckwit.
The sun still shines chaps.
WWW
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Some interesting material found on the OAA forum:
ask.oxfordaviation.net :: View topic - Employment Outlook for 2009 and Beyond
ask.oxfordaviation.net :: View topic - Employment Outlook for 2009 and Beyond
Rex,
It is imperative that you do your own research and risk assessment, as I have a vested interest in you deciding to train and no matter how hard I try to be objective, I can't be totally so from inside the industry. The price of oil is hammering all industries right now and you do need to keep an eye on it.
Good news reports are definitely fewer and farther between right now. I fear more for our current students than for those who will start in the next 12-24 months though.
The high oil price is going to hit the US harder than anywhere else. Lenient US bankruptcy law has allowed unhealthy airlines to keep operating and the result is a good 15-20% over capacity. US carriers are attempting to reduce their capacity quickly, but not all will be able to downsize quick enough. Some will go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows reorganizing and restructuring of debt. This is the form of bankruptcy that prevents Economic Darwinism from doing it's job. Others will be forced into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as liguidation.
If you need some WWW counter balance, here are a few stories from this week that effect the UK market:
FlyBe antcipating record profits: http://www.abtn.co.uk/Flybe_anticipates_record_profits
AA, BA and Iberia seeking to form alliance to take advantage of Open Skies: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac3382cc-4881-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Below is a bunch of news from the US, much of it upbeat as far as traffic projections, so it is just a matter of how much of the increased fuel cost can be passed on to the consumer vs. how much demand will decrease as a result of the higher fares.
Here's a mixed report showing good news for first four months of 2008, but expressing concerns going forward: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33365.html
American Airlines, the world's largest airline, reported a June load factor of 85.5 percent, a decline of 1.7 points versus the same period last year. Traffic decreased 3.1 percent and capacity decreased 1.2 percent year over year: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33360.html
Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) today reported a June consolidated (mainline plus regional) load factor of 83.6 percent, 2.1 points below the June 2007 consolidated load factor, and a mainline load factor of 84.1 percent, 2.0 points below the June 2007 mainline load factor: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33351.html
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) announced today that the Company flew 6.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in June 2008, a 0.7 percent increase from the 6.8 billion RPMs flown in June 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33349.html
International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8% over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33272.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce today announced international visitation to the United States rose 15 percent, and visitor spending increased by 20 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over last year. In March 2008, visitation to the United States climbed substantially to 4.7 million, an increase of 19 percent over March 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33270.html
_________________
Mike Griffith
Senior Training Advisor APP First Officer
It is imperative that you do your own research and risk assessment, as I have a vested interest in you deciding to train and no matter how hard I try to be objective, I can't be totally so from inside the industry. The price of oil is hammering all industries right now and you do need to keep an eye on it.
Good news reports are definitely fewer and farther between right now. I fear more for our current students than for those who will start in the next 12-24 months though.
The high oil price is going to hit the US harder than anywhere else. Lenient US bankruptcy law has allowed unhealthy airlines to keep operating and the result is a good 15-20% over capacity. US carriers are attempting to reduce their capacity quickly, but not all will be able to downsize quick enough. Some will go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows reorganizing and restructuring of debt. This is the form of bankruptcy that prevents Economic Darwinism from doing it's job. Others will be forced into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as liguidation.
If you need some WWW counter balance, here are a few stories from this week that effect the UK market:
FlyBe antcipating record profits: http://www.abtn.co.uk/Flybe_anticipates_record_profits
AA, BA and Iberia seeking to form alliance to take advantage of Open Skies: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac3382cc-4881-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Below is a bunch of news from the US, much of it upbeat as far as traffic projections, so it is just a matter of how much of the increased fuel cost can be passed on to the consumer vs. how much demand will decrease as a result of the higher fares.
Here's a mixed report showing good news for first four months of 2008, but expressing concerns going forward: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33365.html
American Airlines, the world's largest airline, reported a June load factor of 85.5 percent, a decline of 1.7 points versus the same period last year. Traffic decreased 3.1 percent and capacity decreased 1.2 percent year over year: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33360.html
Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) today reported a June consolidated (mainline plus regional) load factor of 83.6 percent, 2.1 points below the June 2007 consolidated load factor, and a mainline load factor of 84.1 percent, 2.0 points below the June 2007 mainline load factor: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33351.html
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) announced today that the Company flew 6.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in June 2008, a 0.7 percent increase from the 6.8 billion RPMs flown in June 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33349.html
International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8% over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33272.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce today announced international visitation to the United States rose 15 percent, and visitor spending increased by 20 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over last year. In March 2008, visitation to the United States climbed substantially to 4.7 million, an increase of 19 percent over March 2007: http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33270.html
_________________
Mike Griffith
Senior Training Advisor APP First Officer
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High handed to say the least!
WWW your last post is he most high handed and patronsing that I have seen in a long time.
Quote:most important one on the Wannabes forum because every day I get pm's and emails asking just how some teenager should best waste their parents re-mortgage.. So it stays.
It is not for you to judge if way that someone spends their money is a waste life is about going out and making what of it you can, not sitting down and meekly cowering to the self appointed good and great.
Having left a crapp school with 2 GCSE's and careers advice to "do something in a factory" I discovered that if you work hard at something you can make a sucsess of it and now thirty-four years later I have a command, current A320 and B73NG type ratings and the lifestyle that I want.
None of this was achived by listening to the self apointed good & great like yourself, if I had I would still be sweeping factory floors.
I happen to agree with you that borrowing money at the moment is not wise and a self financed modular route is probably the best at the present time.
So it is time for you to put away the high handed all knowing sky god attitude and come over with a little more practical advice for the guys who will be your First Officers over the next few years, we know that some will fall by the wayside along the path to the airline flight deck but I know of no one who has regretted trying to improve them selfs but there are a lot of people pushing brooms who have not achived anywere near full potental because they listened to the likes of you telling them that they would never make a go of it.
Quote:most important one on the Wannabes forum because every day I get pm's and emails asking just how some teenager should best waste their parents re-mortgage.. So it stays.
It is not for you to judge if way that someone spends their money is a waste life is about going out and making what of it you can, not sitting down and meekly cowering to the self appointed good and great.
Having left a crapp school with 2 GCSE's and careers advice to "do something in a factory" I discovered that if you work hard at something you can make a sucsess of it and now thirty-four years later I have a command, current A320 and B73NG type ratings and the lifestyle that I want.
None of this was achived by listening to the self apointed good & great like yourself, if I had I would still be sweeping factory floors.
I happen to agree with you that borrowing money at the moment is not wise and a self financed modular route is probably the best at the present time.
So it is time for you to put away the high handed all knowing sky god attitude and come over with a little more practical advice for the guys who will be your First Officers over the next few years, we know that some will fall by the wayside along the path to the airline flight deck but I know of no one who has regretted trying to improve them selfs but there are a lot of people pushing brooms who have not achived anywere near full potental because they listened to the likes of you telling them that they would never make a go of it.
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Ahh the old you if don't like it, don't read it post.
If you truly arn't all that bothered if anyone reads your monotonous pessimistic lectures, why bother to waste your highly valuable time with them in the first place old chap? And might I add not just post them the once, but many times over and over.
I'm not buying this 'helping young wannabes' routine either, you come across as the kind of person who despises young wannabes.
To go back to the original topic yes there does appear to be a downturn upon us but no one here has a crystal ball. Most highly experienced economists haven't much of a clue as to what lies around the corner.
All we do know in respect of the airlines is that some of the largest are posting record profits for last year and alot are still recruiting, and recruiting freshly trained pilots as well as experienced ones. Is this about to change? Probably, maybe yes. Will we all be working in the local fast food outlet soon? No.
Also I think most wannabes who borrow vast amounts of cash to train do so knowing the risk and most are well prepared for a long wait to get into the RHS.
Maybe there should be a similar thread where WWW and a couple of his equally deplorable 'mates' can decide to stop trying to dominate this site and let others discuss things without the same old same old I know more than you palaver.
Being a member of a site for 10 years doesn't make you any more knowing or better than the next member. I notice your a 737 captain, what would you say If a very senior 747 captain came on here and took a similar attitude towards you?
Regards,
Hank
If you truly arn't all that bothered if anyone reads your monotonous pessimistic lectures, why bother to waste your highly valuable time with them in the first place old chap? And might I add not just post them the once, but many times over and over.
I'm not buying this 'helping young wannabes' routine either, you come across as the kind of person who despises young wannabes.
To go back to the original topic yes there does appear to be a downturn upon us but no one here has a crystal ball. Most highly experienced economists haven't much of a clue as to what lies around the corner.
All we do know in respect of the airlines is that some of the largest are posting record profits for last year and alot are still recruiting, and recruiting freshly trained pilots as well as experienced ones. Is this about to change? Probably, maybe yes. Will we all be working in the local fast food outlet soon? No.
Also I think most wannabes who borrow vast amounts of cash to train do so knowing the risk and most are well prepared for a long wait to get into the RHS.
Maybe there should be a similar thread where WWW and a couple of his equally deplorable 'mates' can decide to stop trying to dominate this site and let others discuss things without the same old same old I know more than you palaver.
Being a member of a site for 10 years doesn't make you any more knowing or better than the next member. I notice your a 737 captain, what would you say If a very senior 747 captain came on here and took a similar attitude towards you?
Regards,
Hank
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MIKECR
WWW - your last post there just signs, seal and delivers exactly why this thread should be closed. As a Mod, personal insults are unacceptable.
WWW - your last post there just signs, seal and delivers exactly why this thread should be closed. As a Mod, personal insults are unacceptable.
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Whether or not you agree with WWW's style (and why it should bother you is beyond me), the facts speak for themselves. Wannabes would be wise to heed them or burned they will get.
The percentage of those that graduated in 2001/02 who actually got jobs flying is not high. It won't be different this time around, in fact it will be far far worse.
In aviation you will come across all manner of people on the flight deck, some who will have the communications skills of a monkey, that won't make what they say wrong however and you can't ignore facts cos you don't like the delivery.
Objective reasoning, and binning the emotional reaction to styles you don't like, might well save you a whole lot of money. One day you'll be thankful.
The percentage of those that graduated in 2001/02 who actually got jobs flying is not high. It won't be different this time around, in fact it will be far far worse.
In aviation you will come across all manner of people on the flight deck, some who will have the communications skills of a monkey, that won't make what they say wrong however and you can't ignore facts cos you don't like the delivery.
Objective reasoning, and binning the emotional reaction to styles you don't like, might well save you a whole lot of money. One day you'll be thankful.
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This moderator wants to make a point:
He finds it ridiculous that people head into integrated flight training by securing loans on lunatic amounts of money.
The ability to take out a loan is the only real life advantage of the integrated system (except for some who offer real job prospects).
But an individual with common sense and good judgement should know better than gambling his/her parent's capital because "it's easier" instead of going for the safer but harder way of working hard to achieve his goal.
I admire people like member UAV who works 2 jobs to achieve his/her dream of flying a jet some day. I have many close friends who are in similar situations and I have a deep admiration for them all.
As I told this moderator several times already, media articles showing "how bad things are" are inappropriate because of the following reasons:
-many pilots on this forum are not starting wannabe's, many are already done with training, some are half-way there. Putting bad news on them puts unneeded pressure on them with the risk of affecting motivation.
-what is there today in the US may not affect Europe's airline 2 years from now, supposing that the moderator is intending to warn people who are about to start now and thus, be ready 2 years from now.
-too much speculation, misinformation and confusion to see what is really going on. Some media are reporting the end of the world.
(as usual I would say, remember the bluff of the millenium? year 2000: "computers may not work anymore due to inability of computers to adapt to the new time scale")
The reality is that Q1 ended with a slight growth even in the US. Airline traffic and capacity figures look pretty good in Europe, only minus point is that airline CEO's shouldn't expect a huge bonus at the end of the year.
The foreclosure crisis was launched by a government... that says enough in the actual context.
As I told you before dear moderator, if you really want to make flight training affordable, risk-free and if you really want to help motivated individuals no matter whether rich or poor, to get their licenses at a resonable price, then start your own affordable flight training program.
It takes more than pushing tabs on a computer.
Ps: AA, BA, IB are not intending to merge because of Openskies. It's a desperate move to attempt to save eachother. BA is particularily doing bad. I think that UK airlines relying too much on tatl routes will be hurt badly. Others like BMI will fight their way out.
Other than that, I agree with the OAA guy's general assessment that the US is going to see some bankruptcies.
I was told yesterday by a FAA guy that only 4% of student pilots at Embry-Riddle are Americans...
Flight schools are getting empty because many locals can't afford to fly anymore with avgas prices where they are; only schools that can accommodate foreign students are full-up.
Standing at PHL (yes, I fly USAir with ticket prices where they are) I saw more pilots than passengers in the terminals. Turboprops taxied on one engine and flights with too few passengers booked on them were simply cancelled (yes, happened to me twice...in a day), pax transferred to hotels (it was a nice hotel, 4*, thanks USAir).
Local (Ohio, USA) student pilots close to finishing training have a positive attitude, many of them think that the high fuel cost would see a surge in turbo-props, thus resulting in jobs for them... not sure what to tell them (I usually nod) but I know that the last thing I would do is to make them lose their hopes and motivation.
He finds it ridiculous that people head into integrated flight training by securing loans on lunatic amounts of money.
The ability to take out a loan is the only real life advantage of the integrated system (except for some who offer real job prospects).
But an individual with common sense and good judgement should know better than gambling his/her parent's capital because "it's easier" instead of going for the safer but harder way of working hard to achieve his goal.
I admire people like member UAV who works 2 jobs to achieve his/her dream of flying a jet some day. I have many close friends who are in similar situations and I have a deep admiration for them all.
As I told this moderator several times already, media articles showing "how bad things are" are inappropriate because of the following reasons:
-many pilots on this forum are not starting wannabe's, many are already done with training, some are half-way there. Putting bad news on them puts unneeded pressure on them with the risk of affecting motivation.
-what is there today in the US may not affect Europe's airline 2 years from now, supposing that the moderator is intending to warn people who are about to start now and thus, be ready 2 years from now.
-too much speculation, misinformation and confusion to see what is really going on. Some media are reporting the end of the world.
(as usual I would say, remember the bluff of the millenium? year 2000: "computers may not work anymore due to inability of computers to adapt to the new time scale")The reality is that Q1 ended with a slight growth even in the US. Airline traffic and capacity figures look pretty good in Europe, only minus point is that airline CEO's shouldn't expect a huge bonus at the end of the year.
The foreclosure crisis was launched by a government... that says enough in the actual context.
As I told you before dear moderator, if you really want to make flight training affordable, risk-free and if you really want to help motivated individuals no matter whether rich or poor, to get their licenses at a resonable price, then start your own affordable flight training program.
It takes more than pushing tabs on a computer.
Ps: AA, BA, IB are not intending to merge because of Openskies. It's a desperate move to attempt to save eachother. BA is particularily doing bad. I think that UK airlines relying too much on tatl routes will be hurt badly. Others like BMI will fight their way out.
Other than that, I agree with the OAA guy's general assessment that the US is going to see some bankruptcies.
I was told yesterday by a FAA guy that only 4% of student pilots at Embry-Riddle are Americans...
Flight schools are getting empty because many locals can't afford to fly anymore with avgas prices where they are; only schools that can accommodate foreign students are full-up.
Standing at PHL (yes, I fly USAir with ticket prices where they are) I saw more pilots than passengers in the terminals. Turboprops taxied on one engine and flights with too few passengers booked on them were simply cancelled (yes, happened to me twice...in a day), pax transferred to hotels (it was a nice hotel, 4*, thanks USAir).
Local (Ohio, USA) student pilots close to finishing training have a positive attitude, many of them think that the high fuel cost would see a surge in turbo-props, thus resulting in jobs for them... not sure what to tell them (I usually nod) but I know that the last thing I would do is to make them lose their hopes and motivation.
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If you don't like the message WWW sends then prove him wrong... post why the outlook is so good and make him look silly..... please do share all the good news (quite why 3 airlines merging is good for pilot jobs is a bit beyond me)
I agree WWW's style is more than a little "tabloid" at times but if you don't think the outlook for the aviation industry and its impact on jobs for new wannabees is important then please explain why rather than just resorting to personal attacks... in short please stay on topic.
A the moment you are just coming across as "I don't like what is happening in the world so will ignore it and chastise anyone who dare point it out"..... that does come across as a bit pathetic.
So come on then lets have to good news... I and no doubt everyone else would love to hear it......
...enter tumbleweed stage left....
and oh yeah rubbish traffic numbers out of BA... but don't worry everything is going to be fine.
I agree WWW's style is more than a little "tabloid" at times but if you don't think the outlook for the aviation industry and its impact on jobs for new wannabees is important then please explain why rather than just resorting to personal attacks... in short please stay on topic.
A the moment you are just coming across as "I don't like what is happening in the world so will ignore it and chastise anyone who dare point it out"..... that does come across as a bit pathetic.
So come on then lets have to good news... I and no doubt everyone else would love to hear it......
...enter tumbleweed stage left....
and oh yeah rubbish traffic numbers out of BA... but don't worry everything is going to be fine.
Last edited by Grass strip basher; 4th Jul 2008 at 09:31.
You don't get over 50,000 thread views without a bit of tabloid reporting
I think quite a few of you would be suprised by the correspondence I get from youngsters who have NO IDEA there might be even a teensy bit of trouble in the economy. They are still getting their parents to remortgage the house in the belief that £50,000 a year airline jobs are just there for the taking.
This is just one thread. If you understand the airline business and the economic conditions or the present day then you really needn't be reading this.
I will be delighted to contribute to the Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us thread when its time comes - which it will.
WWW
I think quite a few of you would be suprised by the correspondence I get from youngsters who have NO IDEA there might be even a teensy bit of trouble in the economy. They are still getting their parents to remortgage the house in the belief that £50,000 a year airline jobs are just there for the taking.
This is just one thread. If you understand the airline business and the economic conditions or the present day then you really needn't be reading this.
I will be delighted to contribute to the Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us thread when its time comes - which it will.
WWW
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At one time in the distant past it was an interesting read. Its now however a never ending ad nauseum scroll of posts that continually repeat each other. On the occasions that i've clicked on this thread just in case someone may have posted something interesting, alas its the same old broken record. The thread does nothing but go round in circles. I think we're all perfectly aware of the immediate ecenomic outlook, its splashed across the papers, media, news...its evident even at the supermarkets. WWW - your not going to stop people training. As much as you'd like to, it aint gonna happen. Little Johnny isnt going to listen to you....nor anyone else for that matter.
now somebody change the record............
now somebody change the record............
Well Mike, why don't you just relax and let me manage the editorial policy of the Wannabe forums and you think of something new and interesting to say?
Or, you could continue to bitch and moan about a thread you admit you continue to check and complain about its contents and my style.
Either is fine by me.
Really.
WWW
ps I know you are sitting in a couple of holding pools waiting for that first job offer. I understand that me posting negative news about airline prospects perplexes you. You are shooting the messenger though.
Or, you could continue to bitch and moan about a thread you admit you continue to check and complain about its contents and my style.
Either is fine by me.
Really.
WWW
ps I know you are sitting in a couple of holding pools waiting for that first job offer. I understand that me posting negative news about airline prospects perplexes you. You are shooting the messenger though.
Laughing Out Loud at that JB! 
WWW
WWW
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I check it in the vain hope that someone may have actually posted something worthy to read. That hasnt happened for some considerable time now.
And I would probably suggest that it is you who needs to think up something new and interesting to say. You've been like a broken record ever since this thread started. As for your style, lastnight you told someone to fu*k off and called someone else a fu*wit.......charming!
And I would probably suggest that it is you who needs to think up something new and interesting to say. You've been like a broken record ever since this thread started. As for your style, lastnight you told someone to fu*k off and called someone else a fu*wit.......charming!
Well - I'm on holiday and was just back from a splendid evening out so I may have been a little more blunt than usual...
Perhaps you should dock my pay?
WWW
Perhaps you should dock my pay?
WWW