Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

[lilpilot]

There will be no retirement bubble.

The number of ATPL(A) holders that will reach age 60 in the next 5 years is steady around the 300's/year.

The CAA issued 1218 ATPL(A)'s and 1146 CPL(A)'s and 1869 PPL (A)'s in 2007.

There is an ample supply of pilots way ahead of any newbie starting training now.

All that being said, by no way should anyone give up their dream of flying, but do take a reality check before taking out a large loan or signing away your parents house. Find the cheapest flying club or flight school within reach. Pay as you go and stay debt free.

[Slick]

Is it not possible to go and get a US,NZ, Australian, South African or Canadian licence and instruct for a thousand hours or so? thats surely cheeper isnt it? Can you still convert it later? Or do you all have to be airline pilots or nothing nowdays?

Rgds

[G-SPOTs Lost]

Quote:
Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble"

This is why i am enrolled on an OAA course later on this year, i think jobs will be few and far between in the coming years but the airlines that do have any vacancies for 'noobs' like me will go to the integrated providers first (hopefully )

[heli_port]

Or do you all have to be airline pilots or nothing nowdays?

For me i have to be an airline pilot, i suspect that will hold true for most 'noobies'

[Re-Heat]

BA retirement bubble finished 5 years ago.

[eikido]

Do you guys think you'll increase your chances of getting a job if you also have a background as a civil engineer with some experience and still young?

Eikido

[scroggs]

Originally Posted by Thirtysomething

777 driver in LA
You too are sitting in the deck chair and coming up with your "opinion" , your in no better position than anybody (WWW) to know. Nobody can know for sure there can only be a broad expectation. We manage a large fund here from Spain in Stocks , i can tell you that we made ( and will continue to ) a packet shorting airline stocks , homebuilders , banks and buying oil. A While back people laughed when i predicted oil to continue to climb ( it was about 90 dollars then ). We have a target of 175 USD a barrell with a stronger dollar than we are seeing now. 160 Dollars we think within 20 days.

The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )

I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.

When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...

If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.

No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.

I love economists! Only now are they beginning to speculate that 'there are huge problems ahead'! Give me strength...

One of the truisms of economic downturns is that by the time we've noticed we're in one, we're already on the way out. The fundamental economic problems that precipitated the current downturn peaked in late 2006. Few economists, hedge fund managers and retail investors (the 'people who know') were doing anything but riding the crest of that wave, and predicting growth would continue into the forseeable future. Hey ho.

Now, of course, all of those experts are predicting that we're at the lip of the abyss and the only way is down from here on in. Well, I'm not predicting any instant recovery, but if the 'economists' have noticed we're in trouble, then things are looking up!

There are still too many imponderables to predict when things will pick up in our industry. The wider economy is likely to be coming out of its current problems in six months to a year, but the airline industry is somewhat uniquely vulnerable to oil prices. Other oil users can far more easily adopt alternatives or new technology; safety regulation and development lead times make such adaptation difficult for aviation. The oil price is likely to remain extremely high until the world's demand has reduced to a point where there is significant production headroom, and that alternatives can be relied upon to take a significant and increasing share of the enrgy supply market. That may take 5 years or more, and in the meantime aviation will hurt. Even after that, the cost of aviation fuel is unlikely to return to the historic lows of the '80s and '90s.

As heli_port's latest link suggests, $200 oil makes the current airline business unviable. Fares would have to rise to a point where the structure would have to shrink very significantly for a balance to be regained. However, that's if aviation fuel reaches and stays at or above $2000 per tonne. I don't believe that will happen. If it gets there, the economic pressure to develop and market cheaper alternatives will be irresistable, and rapid. Already, the investment in alternatives is several times what it was only a few months ago. Life - including aviation - will go on. But there is pain to be endured in the meantime.

Looking at past economic crises, and factoring in the additional factor of exceptional fuel prices, I suspect we are looking at a period of 5 years of zero or negative overall growth in the airline industry worldwide. Some areas will continue to expand - the Far and Middle East, mainly - but the West's airlines are going to contract. The USA may get hit harder than Europe, but that doesn't mean we can be complacent. Several airlines are likely to go down, and pilots will be made unemployed. There will be a very subdued market for new pilots over that period - for 5 years from now, remember. 5 years. That's how long I think you need to think in terms of.

Of course, it may all be fine by next summer - lots of new oil discoveries, and everyone flying as much as they always did. Are you going to bet £50,000+ on that?

Scroggs

[cavortingcheetah]

Of course the US has missed its chance to dominate the world of aviation in the western world. It would under today's circumstances, and probably tomorrow's, have been able to do this had Mr Bush been permitted by the rather short sighted Democrat Congress, to develop the Alaska oil fields in a manner favourable to the environment. Instead of such a careful plan being put into action, thus providing almost unlimited oil for the US industrial base, the fields up north are now far more likely to have to be intruded into in a manner than is hurried, costly and seriously damaging to the cherished, if sometimes hardly democratic ethos (or should that be ethoi in the classic Greek plural?) of those who profess to prefer to run with green feet but who are not above keeping quite warm in winter.

[thirtysomething]

Scroggs we shorted in late November of last year. By no means everybody was telling you all was ok or all was good , in fact the first rumblings that all wasnt came last July.

I think your missing the point though, that while a small body of people can make various predictions aka WWW or 777, you or me if you look towards the market its a broader look at what many many institutional investors and non armchair economists think and if you watch it over the next few days / weeks you will see it get a whole lot worse . thats my point. You will see the real economy get worse behind the market and recover after the market and well my contention is that we are nowhere close to the worst ( despite what LEH or GS say ) . Were the papers telling you 3 months ago to buy while everything was cheap ? Half the news you watch about the " bottom being in " is the markets way of creating retail demand as positions are being unwound. You only have to look over the last six months to see that now. Today alone the housing sector and many of the largest mortgage companies lost another huge chunk in valuation ( SLM - 11% and FRE - 18% ).. in one day.

It doesnt take an economist to tell you there are rumours circulating in the hallways about cutbacks in your workforce or going belly up but it will be economists who tell your airline when to start recruiting again and if the market is anything to go by that will be a very long time. When that begins i contend that there will be quite a pool of qualified pilots ( which is why i didnt bother turning up at Bristol even though i have paid for it ). I have been connected in a number of ways in my sport to aviation since 9/11 and watched many many good pilots lose everything.

Isnt it just crazy that many airlines are not even trading at the value of their assets ( airframes ) .

This is more my point, it might be interesting to you to take a look at recruitment numbers in your own company over the last 8 years and compare them to a chart of say the DOW, SP500 or FTSE over that same time period.

[scroggs]

I didn't mention any figures other than a possible fuel price. I don't doubt that you've traded well and made a stack out of the problems we've been discussing; so have many others. Trouble is, the profits you've made (and those of the banks that precipitated this mess) have largely been paid for by the poor suckers who borrowed money from people much cleverer, sharper and more ruthless than them. Now the clever people have realised that the suckers never had the money to pay them back directly, so they'll get it by wrecking the world's financial system - and millions of jobs worldwide in the process. But that's the way of the world and I'm in no position to change it.

Yes, there's worse to come. But for most of the economy, the pain will be much shorter than it will be for aviation. That's the key point, at least in the context of this forum.

Many of our wannabes are directly analagous to those who took those sub-prime loans a few years back. They're going to borrow money at interest rates they don't really understand, against security they don't really own, backed by prospects of employment which are rapidly diminishing, and they're going to do it because some smooth-talking flight schools and airlines tell them, 'it'll all be ok'. Well, it won't be ok. The sums don't stack up, but the potential life-wrecking problems certainly do. This is not the time to spend any money, especially money that's not yours, on flying training.

Scroggs

[thirtysomething]

I do apologise, I did not initially understood your reference to the 50K. I will edit that out.

[v6g]

Originally Posted by scroggs

Many of our wannabes are directly analagous to those who took those sub-prime loans a few years back.

That's BANG ON!

[scroggs]

Ah, I see - that's a reference to how much commercial flight training costs in UK, not a comment on your (or anyone else's) profits!

Scroggs

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Whilst I'm pleased that the wind of opinion has turned my way I'm rather worried that it marks the approach of a hurricane.

Over the last 6 months things have gotten worse, faster, than I expected and I started sleeping in a cave I'm such a bear.

WWW

[lazy george]

And i say its good to have scroggs back . Welcome back pal!

[scroggs]

Thank you George. Don't get too used to it; my life is too busy elsewhere these days. I hope it stays that way!

WWW, I'm not sharing any caves with you, mate! Frankly, if I didn't work in this industry I wouldn't give two hoots about the wider economy, house prices and all that baloney. Too many heartbeats are wasted worrying about money and whether we have enough of it, whether we have a fast enough car, big enough house, the right clothes and all that sh!t. Life's too short to spend wrapped up in all that stuff. And it's certainly too short to start a working career with worries about a debt you may never be able to repay.

If I lose my house because I lose my job because guys like thirtysomething get my life caught up in their attempts to enrich themselves by causing and capitalising on panic, I'll be pissed off - but I'll still have my family, my bike and my health. That's worth more than all the rest put together.

Scroggs

[cirruscrystal]

Training key question

Having been through the flight training cluster f*** and seen all my colleagues from it progress onto their old careers of IT, building and suchlike. Through a contact of my families i have been lucky beyond my doing to be employed in aviation. The only keyphrase for any potential pilot trainee in my view is:

Complete your training to FATPL if you are happy in the knowledge that you won't get a job.

Going by the number of CVs we are recieving on a weekly basis i can tell you that it is the truth. You might be very lucky though at some point shortly after graduating and be offered somthing. That in my view is the long and short of anyone considering completing the journey to FATPL.

[thirtysomething]

Scroggs,

Thats a rather misguided comment. The people who lose their homes are the people who should not have bought them in the first place , certainly not on 100%+ valuations. Boom and bust are as old as crushing grapes to make wine. Sub prime was only the excuse to get the inevitable bust on the road, this slowdown is about a whole lot more than sub prime but about peoples use of credit in general. Credit everything , forget about saving was the great mantra of the last few years. To suggest that people are the helpless victims and didnt know they were spending beyond their means is narrow. Are people in foreclosure blaming the bank if they lose that home ? Really ?? As a kid on credit ( i got my first TV on credit ) I knew i was taking a risk that i could not pay it back. Luckily McDonalds didnt go bust at the time.

The " system " , nor anybody like me has responsibility for such folly and as for the banks that lent them money , well thats called a writedown or loss so they got and are getting their own medicine. Mostly American banks.. Although a few on this side of the pond too like the Rock.

It is not the systems, nor people like me as you put it ..fault that hundreds if not thousands will mortgage their ( parents ) house listening to some crap from a flight school about a pilot shortage, leaving themselves in long term debt with no prospects either... doesnt mean people wont do it though. But thats " credit " right?

The one area that I do think the current " system " is to blame for though is oil. If " they " managed to change the system so their could be less speculation I do not believe it would be as bad. That and / or send China back to the dark ages and rickshaws. Incidentally I dont own oil but USO.

The purpose of my post was to add something by way of information to the thread , i think thats done now , as best as I can do it. My money is made not because of who I am but becuase of the blind risk most people took. Your apology is accepted.

[jens40202]

Taking the Shine Off Aviation

Looking back at the last 30years, flying as a career has really gone south! The spread in wages vs. other industries have certainly narrowed and the perks of a flying job diminishing (B scales, longer hours, kneejerk lay-offs,etc.). Makes you wonder if it's still worthwhile.......

[heli_port]

Recession 'looming' for UK firms

The UK is facing a serious risk of recession within months, the findings of a survey of almost 5,000 small and medium-sized businesses suggest. The British Chambers of Commerce's (BCC) quarterly report found the credit crunch and rising costs had dented the most important sectors of the economy.

BBC NEWS | Business | Recession 'looming' for UK firms