Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Oil price hits record above $142
The price of crude oil has surged to a record, breaking through $142 a barrel, amid concerns about the ability of producer nations to meet demand.
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil price hits record above $142
Oil Price Surges To A New All-Time High
Oil Price Surges To New High Of Just Under $142 A Barrel After Libyan Threat |Sky News|Business
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For once a good article from CNN debunking the myth that the current oil price rise is caused by speculators.
In defense of oil 'speculators' - Jun. 27, 2008
In defense of oil 'speculators' - Jun. 27, 2008
chrisbl "Oil will be $200 Barrel by Christmas."
Chris I would be very interested in what makes you belive this. You just make a statement with no suport, which makes little sense to me.
I have no idea if you are right or wrong but would love to know the facts as you see it.
Chris I would be very interested in what makes you belive this. You just make a statement with no suport, which makes little sense to me.
I have no idea if you are right or wrong but would love to know the facts as you see it.
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The euro went over 1.58 against the dollar today.
That partially explains today's surge to 142.
Assuming that the dollar retains its actual value against other currencies and that oil would rise to 200$, the world's entire economy would be grounded. The only airlines flying around would be Emirates, Gulf Air, and their likes.
But before anything like that happens, oil countries will swich oil trading to a new currency, leaving the US to their mercy. OPEC has the power to do that.
If oil goes over 150$ before the September OPEC meeting, you can count on that happening.
That partially explains today's surge to 142.
Assuming that the dollar retains its actual value against other currencies and that oil would rise to 200$, the world's entire economy would be grounded. The only airlines flying around would be Emirates, Gulf Air, and their likes.
But before anything like that happens, oil countries will swich oil trading to a new currency, leaving the US to their mercy. OPEC has the power to do that.
If oil goes over 150$ before the September OPEC meeting, you can count on that happening.
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chrisbl i personally don't believe it will this year. I think around christmas time we will be looking at a price around the $180 margin. All the traders in my office believe this but then they have been wrong before 
In 2009 they believe $250 is achievable
Libya’s oil cut threat sends out jitters
FT.com / In depth - Libya’s oil cut threat sends out jitters
Airlines: Flight plans hit by fuel price
FT.com / Reports - Airlines: Flight plans hit by fuel price
In 2009 they believe $250 is achievable
Libya’s oil cut threat sends out jitters
FT.com / In depth - Libya’s oil cut threat sends out jitters
Analysts on Friday dismissed a threat by Libya to cut its oil production in response to legislation that would allow the US to sue Opec members for manipulating international oil prices.
The Libyan threat caused oil prices to jump above $142 a barrel for the first time on Friday, serving as a stark reminder of the nervousness in the oil market due to the small amount of spare production capacity available to absorb any supply shock.
The Libyan threat caused oil prices to jump above $142 a barrel for the first time on Friday, serving as a stark reminder of the nervousness in the oil market due to the small amount of spare production capacity available to absorb any supply shock.
FT.com / Reports - Airlines: Flight plans hit by fuel price
Europe-based carriers, too, including British Airways, warn that capacity must be trimmed.
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Speculation (the rise &fall)
Most of you are of the opinion that the crash in the UK house market is a result of the over speculation and price hype by estate agents to a point that the market could no longer suport the over inflated prices.
Do we not see exactly the same pressure in the oil market? I cant see oil ever falling to the $80/barrel mark but the speculation bubble will eventualy burst.
Do we not see exactly the same pressure in the oil market? I cant see oil ever falling to the $80/barrel mark but the speculation bubble will eventualy burst.
The key difference is that the House Price Bubble was played by amateurs whereas the Oil Price Bubble is played by professionals.
You don't see many 22yr old hair dressers from Leeds swapping their BuyToDebt "portfolios" for a 6 month Contract-For-Difference on the price of Light Sweet Texas do you?
The oil price also has a fundamental behind it which is lack of refining capacity and the costs of exploration to satisfy the needs of the industrial revolutions taking place on a quarter of the globe.
Whereas house prices were simply a function of relaxed lending practice coupled with classic bubble mentality that made people believe that it was a one way bet. Some believed it so much they created unlimited liability trading companies out of it who used massive gearing and debt to speculate on the market (Buy To Let). As these idiots go bust or have to panic sell their 'portfolios' they are crashing the housing market far faster than it ever crashed in the last crash of the early 1990's. 40% of UK average house prices from peak to trough is now looking highly likely. Worse than last time. And faster.
I can't see a barrel of oil doing anything like that i.e. going to $84. I hope it does though. I really do.
WWW
You don't see many 22yr old hair dressers from Leeds swapping their BuyToDebt "portfolios" for a 6 month Contract-For-Difference on the price of Light Sweet Texas do you?
The oil price also has a fundamental behind it which is lack of refining capacity and the costs of exploration to satisfy the needs of the industrial revolutions taking place on a quarter of the globe.
Whereas house prices were simply a function of relaxed lending practice coupled with classic bubble mentality that made people believe that it was a one way bet. Some believed it so much they created unlimited liability trading companies out of it who used massive gearing and debt to speculate on the market (Buy To Let). As these idiots go bust or have to panic sell their 'portfolios' they are crashing the housing market far faster than it ever crashed in the last crash of the early 1990's. 40% of UK average house prices from peak to trough is now looking highly likely. Worse than last time. And faster.
I can't see a barrel of oil doing anything like that i.e. going to $84. I hope it does though. I really do.
WWW
the baril before end of 2008. want bet?Join Date: May 2008
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How to see world economy through two crises
Two storms are buffeting the world economy: an inflationary commodity-price storm and a deflationary financial one. Last week I argued that exchange-rate regimes were a link between these distinct events. This week, let us look at how to sail on these storm-tossed seas.
FT.com / In depth - How to see world economy through two crises
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Some truely awful data out on the UK mortgage market from the Bank of England this morning... all ye who still think "everything is going to be fine" really are now pissing into a hurricane.... the storm is a coming folks
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New low for UK mortgage approvals
The number of new mortgages being approved for house purchase in Britain has dropped heavily for another month.
The Bank of England said 42,000 homes were approved in May, a 28% fall compared with the previous month and 64% down on a year ago.
This is the lowest since the Bank began reporting the figures in 1993 and lower than many analysts' predictions. Mortgage lending has slumped owing to the credit crunch with institutions reducing their willingness to lend.
The Bank of England said 42,000 homes were approved in May, a 28% fall compared with the previous month and 64% down on a year ago.
This is the lowest since the Bank began reporting the figures in 1993 and lower than many analysts' predictions. Mortgage lending has slumped owing to the credit crunch with institutions reducing their willingness to lend.
BBC NEWS | Business | New low for UK mortgage approvals
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Dont Panic
Dont panic guys it will blow over ... but how soon?
I hope there wont be too many job losses due to this massive fuel surge though.
MOL said that at over $130 Ryanair would be in loss on TV
I hope there wont be too many job losses due to this massive fuel surge though.
MOL said that at over $130 Ryanair would be in loss on TV
The house price crash of the early 1990's ran from 1989 through to 1994. House prices only started to rise in 1996. All in real terms.
4 years of house price crash and 3 years of recession - John Majors green shoots of recovery kept taking an awful long time to appear. Airlines lead into a downturn but also into a recovery. By 1998 BA were generating massive profits and new Airlines were starting up all over the place and prospering.
2013 looks like a good time to start flying training based on the last recession we saw. Of course, history does not repeat itself - it does rhyme though.
Be in no doubt of the basic chronology. A house price and debt bubble bursts. The causes a recession. The recession makes the house price crash worse. The recession deepens. Airlines go bust. Wannabe go to soup kitchens.
You've already felt the tremours with Oasis, MaxJet, SilverJet, EuroManx and Eos. A big quake is certain for the Autumn/Winter 08/09. It might be enough to set off a Tsunami.
Overnight Dollar Libor just climbed to 3.61% over a spot of 2.5%. This is a huge rise. The Fed has got the printing presses running on overdrive, ignoring inflation and those Sheiks ain't going to lower the price of their crude in exchange for ever more worthless Dollars. And why should they? I wouldn't. The US might default.
WWW
4 years of house price crash and 3 years of recession - John Majors green shoots of recovery kept taking an awful long time to appear. Airlines lead into a downturn but also into a recovery. By 1998 BA were generating massive profits and new Airlines were starting up all over the place and prospering.
2013 looks like a good time to start flying training based on the last recession we saw. Of course, history does not repeat itself - it does rhyme though.
Be in no doubt of the basic chronology. A house price and debt bubble bursts. The causes a recession. The recession makes the house price crash worse. The recession deepens. Airlines go bust. Wannabe go to soup kitchens.
You've already felt the tremours with Oasis, MaxJet, SilverJet, EuroManx and Eos. A big quake is certain for the Autumn/Winter 08/09. It might be enough to set off a Tsunami.
Overnight Dollar Libor just climbed to 3.61% over a spot of 2.5%. This is a huge rise. The Fed has got the printing presses running on overdrive, ignoring inflation and those Sheiks ain't going to lower the price of their crude in exchange for ever more worthless Dollars. And why should they? I wouldn't. The US might default.
WWW
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Now for some good news: The second most expensive international research project in the world (I guess you have to disregard all the Black Ops US Defence projects in this contest) is stable fusion power generation. The scientists hope to have it working by 2050-60 - and scientists are never wrong with theories as you know 
. If it works then there will be enough energy to sustain ten billion people at a Western energy consumption level per citizen for 5,000,000,000 years and by then the Earth has been swallowed by the sun (helium has a far smaller density than hydrogen). So, no worries lads, you'll get that job sooner or later and 40 years is no time to wait for this nice job
. If it works then there will be enough energy to sustain ten billion people at a Western energy consumption level per citizen for 5,000,000,000 years and by then the Earth has been swallowed by the sun (helium has a far smaller density than hydrogen). So, no worries lads, you'll get that job sooner or later and 40 years is no time to wait for this nice job
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Oil breaks new ground above $143
Crude oil prices have surged to near $144 a barrel as oil-producing nations and the world's largest oil firms meet in Madrid to discuss soaring prices.
BBC NEWS | Business | Oil breaks new ground above $143
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So are any of the big training schools now introducing "fuel surcharges" yet on top of the published prices for their courses?? Will be interesting to see when that starts to filter in