Rex,
It is imperative that you do your own research and risk assessment, as I have a vested interest in you deciding to train and no matter how hard I try to be objective, I can't be totally so from inside the industry. The price of oil is hammering all industries right now and you do need to keep an eye on it.
Good news reports are definitely fewer and farther between right now. I fear more for our current students than for those who will start in the next 12-24 months though.
The high oil price is going to hit the US harder than anywhere else. Lenient US bankruptcy law has allowed unhealthy airlines to keep operating and the result is a good 15-20% over capacity. US carriers are attempting to reduce their capacity quickly, but not all will be able to downsize quick enough. Some will go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which allows reorganizing and restructuring of debt. This is the form of bankruptcy that prevents Economic Darwinism from doing it's job. Others will be forced into Chapter 7 bankruptcy, also known as liguidation.
If you need some WWW counter balance, here are a few stories from this week that effect the UK market:
FlyBe antcipating record profits:
http://www.abtn.co.uk/Flybe_anticipates_record_profits
AA, BA and Iberia seeking to form alliance to take advantage of Open Skies:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac3382cc-4881-11dd-a851-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
Below is a bunch of news from the US, much of it upbeat as far as traffic projections, so it is just a matter of how much of the increased fuel cost can be passed on to the consumer vs. how much demand will decrease as a result of the higher fares.
Here's a mixed report showing good news for first four months of 2008, but expressing concerns going forward:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33365.html
American Airlines, the world's largest airline, reported a June load factor of 85.5 percent, a decline of 1.7 points versus the same period last year. Traffic decreased 3.1 percent and capacity decreased 1.2 percent year over year:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33360.html
Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL) today reported a June consolidated (mainline plus regional) load factor of 83.6 percent, 2.1 points below the June 2007 consolidated load factor, and a mainline load factor of 84.1 percent, 2.0 points below the June 2007 mainline load factor:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33351.html
Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) announced today that the Company flew 6.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in June 2008, a 0.7 percent increase from the 6.8 billion RPMs flown in June 2007:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33349.html
International tourism in emerging & developing markets has grown at an average rate of 6-8% over the past decade. Twice the rate of industrialized countries:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33272.html
The U.S. Department of Commerce today announced international visitation to the United States rose 15 percent, and visitor spending increased by 20 percent in the first quarter of 2008 over last year. In March 2008, visitation to the United States climbed substantially to 4.7 million, an increase of 19 percent over March 2007:
http://www.airlinenewsresource.com/article33270.html
_________________
Mike Griffith
Senior Training Advisor APP First Officer