Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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I would think sooner rather than later grass. I was talking to a very good friend of mine that works in the loans department for HSBC and they are looking seriously at stopping OAA/CTC loans 
House prices 'fell 0.9% in June'
BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'fell 0.9% in June'
House prices 'fell 0.9% in June'
UK house prices fell by 0.9% on average last month, according to the latest survey from the Nationwide.
BBC NEWS | Business | House prices 'fell 0.9% in June'
Annual house price falls worst since 1992 - Times Online
Annual house price falls worst since 1992 The Times
UK house prices in grip of slump that experts expect to deepen The Telegraph
The growing evidence is now growing fact. Be assured that house prices are a close correlation to airline prosperity. Things are DIRE.
DIRE.
WWW
Annual house price falls worst since 1992 The Times
UK house prices in grip of slump that experts expect to deepen The Telegraph
The growing evidence is now growing fact. Be assured that house prices are a close correlation to airline prosperity. Things are DIRE.
DIRE.
WWW
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HSBC Loans stopping.......
The only way this will happen is if house prices fall to a level that means any security over the loan becomes a bit shaky. As long as HSBC's money is safe I rekon they'll carry on with it, the amount of money they make out of those loans vs the risk that they face with them means that it's only logical to carry on. However it wouldn't surprise me if they some how changed the way that the loan scheme works. Perhaps they'll reduce the amount of money on offer or maybe shorten the repayment term. Who knows. One thing is for sure....the next year or so looks to be pretty interesting for everyone connected to aviation!
The only way this will happen is if house prices fall to a level that means any security over the loan becomes a bit shaky. As long as HSBC's money is safe I rekon they'll carry on with it, the amount of money they make out of those loans vs the risk that they face with them means that it's only logical to carry on. However it wouldn't surprise me if they some how changed the way that the loan scheme works. Perhaps they'll reduce the amount of money on offer or maybe shorten the repayment term. Who knows. One thing is for sure....the next year or so looks to be pretty interesting for everyone connected to aviation!
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Absolutely, it won't take many defaulted payments to cock the whole thing up. I wasn't aware that they still offered any unsecured loans. When I first approached HSBC to sort out my loan they made it pretty clear that any loan offered would have to be secured. If they are still offering anything unsecured then that's bound to change pretty soon.
To be fair I only have experience with the Cabair/HSBC relationship. I'm sure each of the FTO's that HSBC support have a slightly different deal for their students.
To be fair I only have experience with the Cabair/HSBC relationship. I'm sure each of the FTO's that HSBC support have a slightly different deal for their students.
This is the fox in the chicken coup.
Very soon some graduates from the various bank-funded schemes that claim sponsorship status (I'm looking at you Dibden) will not find a job. Certainly not one that will pay them a living wage plus loan repayment.
As soon as the first unlucky youungster with no dependents, no assets and a big loan realises that he or she can go bankrupt and have it over with in less than 24 months then the flood gates will open. Bank loans will evaporate in the middle of the afternoon that the judges insolvency judgement is handed down.
You cannot persue a debt against a man who has nothing, no means to pay and a court protecting him.
You certainly can't take his little blue CAA license book away from him.
The banks will work this out eventually.
The schemes as they stand will die on their arse.
WWW
Very soon some graduates from the various bank-funded schemes that claim sponsorship status (I'm looking at you Dibden) will not find a job. Certainly not one that will pay them a living wage plus loan repayment.
As soon as the first unlucky youungster with no dependents, no assets and a big loan realises that he or she can go bankrupt and have it over with in less than 24 months then the flood gates will open. Bank loans will evaporate in the middle of the afternoon that the judges insolvency judgement is handed down.
You cannot persue a debt against a man who has nothing, no means to pay and a court protecting him.
You certainly can't take his little blue CAA license book away from him.
The banks will work this out eventually.
The schemes as they stand will die on their arse.
WWW
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WWW - I'm pretty sure the scheme's of old have already died on their arse as a result of guys deliberately going bankrupt. I don't know that they will offer £60k unsecured anymore. When I asked HSBC why they wanted my loan to be 100% secured they basically said that too many people have defaulted on repayments soon after training so it's obviously made them nervous. Hence my surprise to hear of any loans being offered unsecured. Infact, not only did they insist upon having 100% security against the borrowing, they also insited on having a legal charge over my life insurance policy!
It will be a shame if HSBC do call a day on these loans but I fear a few bad apples could really screw it up for everyone else once and for all if they are still offering unsecured loans.
It will be a shame if HSBC do call a day on these loans but I fear a few bad apples could really screw it up for everyone else once and for all if they are still offering unsecured loans.
Are we talking about loans arranged by CTC for cadets whom they intend to place with airlines?
I am aware that personal loans have died. It is the death of loans arranged by the FTO that I have in mind.
WWW
I am aware that personal loans have died. It is the death of loans arranged by the FTO that I have in mind.
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Ah think we've crossed wires. My loan is to train with Cabair. The CTC thing works slighty differently I believe, not sure how but I know it's set up differently.
The bog standard PSL available for trainee pilots now has to be 100% secured I think. I can't speak for the other FTO's but that's certainly the case with Cabair.
The bog standard PSL available for trainee pilots now has to be 100% secured I think. I can't speak for the other FTO's but that's certainly the case with Cabair.
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Watchdog cuts oil supply forecast
Global oil supplies will grow more slowly than expected over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted.
BBC NEWS | Business | Watchdog cuts oil supply forecast
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Global oil supplies will grow more slowly than expected over the next five years, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted.
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a very interesting topic. Am doing my atpl's now and cannot believe that youngsters are getting these huge loans to fund training.
The safest and most intelligent way is to get a job, go modular and have a fall back plan. As pilots/future pilots we are supposed to be intelligent individuals able to weigh up decisions and always have a back up plan. Get a career, dont get loans, even if you think you can pay them now, you may not in the future.
In my case I am working 7 days a week,2 jobs (next day off is Aug Bank Holiday!) and should have enough money in 12 months to complete the fAtpl, when I get a job it will taste so much sweeter through the hard work I have put in, and if it doesn't I have a good fall back career, keep my license valid, and in the worst case if it doesn't pay off for me I know in my heart I have tried and it will have cost me nothing but time, I will be debt free.
It is very interesting to debate where the economy is going to end up - I work for a large retail company setting the budgets/profit targets to be met for the up coming seasons and certainly we are not predicting declines in sales. I know a number of retailers that are also achieving growths (some massive) and others that are suffering the downturn. The same will happen in aviation, it doesn't take a genius to see that the strongest buisness models are the loco's and the legacy carriers will struggle the most, especially those dictated to by unions.
I agree with Nichibei that traffic volume is best indictator to demand for pilots, not share prices. I think he does speak a lot of sense, he maybe biased due to his own interests (am 90% certain i will contact his school in the future!)
AZ going under is a big worry for me - but they have been on the brink for the last 10 years, and if they do other airlines will take up the slack by flying their routes and hopefully more a/c to do so.
Play Safe, have a back up, stay away from banks - they gain while you lose.
The safest and most intelligent way is to get a job, go modular and have a fall back plan. As pilots/future pilots we are supposed to be intelligent individuals able to weigh up decisions and always have a back up plan. Get a career, dont get loans, even if you think you can pay them now, you may not in the future.
In my case I am working 7 days a week,2 jobs (next day off is Aug Bank Holiday!) and should have enough money in 12 months to complete the fAtpl, when I get a job it will taste so much sweeter through the hard work I have put in, and if it doesn't I have a good fall back career, keep my license valid, and in the worst case if it doesn't pay off for me I know in my heart I have tried and it will have cost me nothing but time, I will be debt free.
It is very interesting to debate where the economy is going to end up - I work for a large retail company setting the budgets/profit targets to be met for the up coming seasons and certainly we are not predicting declines in sales. I know a number of retailers that are also achieving growths (some massive) and others that are suffering the downturn. The same will happen in aviation, it doesn't take a genius to see that the strongest buisness models are the loco's and the legacy carriers will struggle the most, especially those dictated to by unions.
I agree with Nichibei that traffic volume is best indictator to demand for pilots, not share prices. I think he does speak a lot of sense, he maybe biased due to his own interests (am 90% certain i will contact his school in the future!)
AZ going under is a big worry for me - but they have been on the brink for the last 10 years, and if they do other airlines will take up the slack by flying their routes and hopefully more a/c to do so.
Play Safe, have a back up, stay away from banks - they gain while you lose.
Hi Guys and Girls,
Just looking for advice. A friend of mine is due to start at OAA in 5 weeks. He's got the finance on a loan secured by his parents house. I've tried to make it clear to him that I think he's making a bad move starting at Oxford during what seems to be a very rough few years for the industry. He's only 18 and I've suggested maybe he goes to work for a few years, gets some experience from the university of life and maybe saves some cash for when/if the industry starts to pick up again. Now I'm no fool, I have plenty of industry experience, but am I being harsh or am I doing the right thing?
What do you suggest?
S88
Just looking for advice. A friend of mine is due to start at OAA in 5 weeks. He's got the finance on a loan secured by his parents house. I've tried to make it clear to him that I think he's making a bad move starting at Oxford during what seems to be a very rough few years for the industry. He's only 18 and I've suggested maybe he goes to work for a few years, gets some experience from the university of life and maybe saves some cash for when/if the industry starts to pick up again. Now I'm no fool, I have plenty of industry experience, but am I being harsh or am I doing the right thing?
What do you suggest?
S88
Let him be fodder to the machine gun of reality. He will be upholding a noble tradition which keeps flying instructors in Farra trousers and David Clarke headsets.
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UAV - I'm not exactly a youngster compared to many people I've come across in FTO's to date but I know what you're getting at. I worked my arse off to make sure I have a back up career to fall back on should all go tits up. Ensuring that I could always make the repayments regardless of the outcome in aviation was a massive part of my financial planning. My parents have been amazingly supportive and were willing to put their house down as security because they know that I can pay it back. The last thing I would do is repay them by dumping £60k's worth of debt on their doorstep.
However if I were 18 again and looking to borrow this much money without a back up plan.....not a chance I would get into flight training given the current economic climate. I was already commited to it with deposits and flights booked etc just before the economy started going haywire. Scary times ahead folks....hold onto your hats!
However if I were 18 again and looking to borrow this much money without a back up plan.....not a chance I would get into flight training given the current economic climate. I was already commited to it with deposits and flights booked etc just before the economy started going haywire. Scary times ahead folks....hold onto your hats!
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Student 88
Tell your mate to get a job, save some money and go modular! by the time he has finished his traning he should be well placed to ge a job as we are coming out of this economic downturn.
I have always recomended spending your own money rather than the banks at a price.................... its about the only thing that you will find WWW and myself agreeing on !!
I have always recomended spending your own money rather than the banks at a price.................... its about the only thing that you will find WWW and myself agreeing on !!
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He's got the finance on a loan secured by his parents house
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Could the massive untapped Oil fields in Iraq eventually herald a return to sub $100 a barrel levels?
Cathay expects ‘disappointing’ 2008 results
FT.com / Companies / Transport - Cathay expects disappointing 2008 results
HONG KONG, July 2 (Reuters) - Cathay Pacific warned on Wednesday of ”disappointing” first-half earnings after Asia’s third most valuable carrier was forced to pay 60 per cent more for jet fuel in the first six months, on average
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I agree with Nichibei that traffic volume is best indictator to demand for pilots, not share prices. I think he does speak a lot of sense
Perhaps you thinking only of deliveries, and not what is being sent to the desert.