Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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I was chatting to a friend at the weekend that has just bought a house on an interest only mortgage. I said "are you mad?" His logic behind it was that renting was throwing his money away and at least this way he owns his own house. I was quick to point out that actually the bank owns it and he is in essence paying the bank his rent (which has now gone up 150 a month to when he rented) all the while his home is losing value. Interest only mortgages only make sense in an economic upturn and even then i dont agree with them.
But this is where we get back on to the subject of responsible lending, he is a seasonal cabin crew member with a far from busy roster that will be laid off over the winter and yet a bank saw fit to lend him 110k on a 40 year mortgage????? In my oppinion it is madness from both partys to have gone ahead with this in the current climate, as i said in my last post, these mistakes have been made before and they will be made again.
Expecting the goverment to make anything better is laughable. They have a massive defocit (spelling??) from the lack of stamp duty and are expecting it to worsen with the new payback scheme for the 10p tax law. On top of this there is growing pressure to cut fuel tax, they have frozen the idea of raising road tax and fuel tax which were all part of the budget but they will likely increase borrowing and spending in a last gasp attempt to stay in power while in the process wrecking any chance of a speedy recovery from the now inevitable recession. Unfortunately the voting public (being the only ones with time on there hands (DHSS)) will all carry on voting Labour as they were brought up believing that they are the peoples party. The working mans party, how wrong they were and how their hands must be burning now(though sadly not enough for their small minds to notice).
Rant over.
Paz
But this is where we get back on to the subject of responsible lending, he is a seasonal cabin crew member with a far from busy roster that will be laid off over the winter and yet a bank saw fit to lend him 110k on a 40 year mortgage????? In my oppinion it is madness from both partys to have gone ahead with this in the current climate, as i said in my last post, these mistakes have been made before and they will be made again.
What about the Governments and their policies?
Rant over.
Paz
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Philpaz,
Interest only mortgages are not as bad as they seem, particularly if your on a 'no ties' base rate tracker. Rates have fallen recently and are predicted to either fall again, or at the very least stay the same, til the remainder of the year. If the base rate rises, jump ship.
Interest only mortgages are not as bad as they seem, particularly if your on a 'no ties' base rate tracker. Rates have fallen recently and are predicted to either fall again, or at the very least stay the same, til the remainder of the year. If the base rate rises, jump ship.
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I can understand the logic when house prices are rising as your investment is rising but when they are falling its madness but the same logic applies to all mortgages i suppose. I just thought that if he thinks rent is throwing money away then his logic is slightly flawed, as he is paying out more money on a mortgage that will inevitably become negative equity. If/When he does decide to re-mortgage to a repayment scheme they will value his property and he may well end up with a 110%+ mortgage that will attract a not so desirable interest rate (being sub prime). At least if he was on a repayment scheme he would have the possibility of paying off the equity that he had lost.
I'm not a big fan of Interest only schemes but i'm sure that in the property boom there are people that saved a small fortune by buying houses that increased in value buy several factors. I personally am still of the (old fashioned) oppinion that a house is a home not an investment, and as such would rather be paying off my debt rather than tending to my investment.
Call me crazy...
Paz
I'm not a big fan of Interest only schemes but i'm sure that in the property boom there are people that saved a small fortune by buying houses that increased in value buy several factors. I personally am still of the (old fashioned) oppinion that a house is a home not an investment, and as such would rather be paying off my debt rather than tending to my investment.
Call me crazy...
Paz
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I think its each case on its own merits. I renewed my mortgage recently and deliberately went for a base rate tracker. I have no ties or penalties for an early redemption. I have aleady seen my mortgage repayments decrease within the last couple of months, hopefuly(a big hope admittedly!) the base rate may just drop a further 0.25% by the end of the year. The moment however it starts to rise, i'll be jumping ship for something else.
The final nail in the coffin for all of us will be if mortgage rates rise like they did in the last recession. Its in everyone's interest's that it doesnt, time will tell though....!
The final nail in the coffin for all of us will be if mortgage rates rise like they did in the last recession. Its in everyone's interest's that it doesnt, time will tell though....!
IF the banks had been constrained by the LAW as they once were, to only lend 3.5 times your proven actual salary for a mortgage then there would be no credit crisis and no sub-prime.
The lawyers who live in the politicians pockets allowed the bankers to do this.
It suited each party.
Google MONEY AS DEBT and click on the first return - its a uTube clip and it might just show you how the world is really run. Its here:
Money As Debt
Just stick the first 3 mins and it gets really informative - its the red pill.
WWW
The lawyers who live in the politicians pockets allowed the bankers to do this.
It suited each party.
Google MONEY AS DEBT and click on the first return - its a uTube clip and it might just show you how the world is really run. Its here:
Money As Debt
Just stick the first 3 mins and it gets really informative - its the red pill.
WWW
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All very interesting points of view and none of them are wrong in a way. It seems to have turned out though that banks didnt quite understand the risks ( E.g Callan in Lehman or the Rock or Bear Stearns B and B ) . The banks are not in the business of losing money or going bust,, but both are happening and i think there will be more bellies up in the "shark tank". The typical scenario before a pop is always excess of both greed an optimism leading to poor judgement ( the Nasdaq has never made it back to its all time highs of 2001 the best example of excess there is ) , humans should know better but dont and generally gravitate to playing a losing game. Not learning from history and all that.
WWW you are right , but there also would not be aviation as you / we know it as everything since 2001 has been built on credit so it suited everybody. The bubble that is now popping was created and saved us from times being much worse after the 2001 downturn. These times are not avoidable as bubbles are created by one mechanism or another and have done so going back a very long time. The risk is now that we are due what i call a super pop or depression. Not possible you say ? My sister who is doing economics in Trinity college Dublin said that all her text books and her professors were saying a bank run was a thing of the past... that was late last year.
That conversation is a whole other topic for jet blast in a way. Here comes the pop to the upside I talked about, If you see oil break below 100 a barrel then things change.
I think the best piece of advise I have seen here is do an FATPL if your happy theres little to no chance of getting a job,, getting one is a bonus. I wanted some sort of odds and I didnt see them so i stuck with what im doing for now and i think by the time its time to get cracking ill be too old.
The other one was about timing it a bit better than the start of a recession.
Everything is my opinion and reserve the right to be wrong which is why i say look to the averaged or longer term trend ( months ) in the market to see reasoned opinion from the pros. The market generally leads the real economy by about nine months which fits with what were starting to see now. Rumbles started in late 2007 but its now that airlines are starting to scale back ( do accept oil has made things worse though ). Like the video , its worth sticking it out just to see how credit and magic money is behind everything and why reductions in the number of mortgage approvals or the " credit squeeze " is bad bad news.
WWW you are right , but there also would not be aviation as you / we know it as everything since 2001 has been built on credit so it suited everybody. The bubble that is now popping was created and saved us from times being much worse after the 2001 downturn. These times are not avoidable as bubbles are created by one mechanism or another and have done so going back a very long time. The risk is now that we are due what i call a super pop or depression. Not possible you say ? My sister who is doing economics in Trinity college Dublin said that all her text books and her professors were saying a bank run was a thing of the past... that was late last year.
That conversation is a whole other topic for jet blast in a way. Here comes the pop to the upside I talked about, If you see oil break below 100 a barrel then things change.
I think the best piece of advise I have seen here is do an FATPL if your happy theres little to no chance of getting a job,, getting one is a bonus. I wanted some sort of odds and I didnt see them so i stuck with what im doing for now and i think by the time its time to get cracking ill be too old.
The other one was about timing it a bit better than the start of a recession. Everything is my opinion and reserve the right to be wrong which is why i say look to the averaged or longer term trend ( months ) in the market to see reasoned opinion from the pros. The market generally leads the real economy by about nine months which fits with what were starting to see now. Rumbles started in late 2007 but its now that airlines are starting to scale back ( do accept oil has made things worse though ). Like the video , its worth sticking it out just to see how credit and magic money is behind everything and why reductions in the number of mortgage approvals or the " credit squeeze " is bad bad news.
Last edited by thirtysomething; 9th Jul 2008 at 00:17.
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WWW,
I now understand why I am so poor. I have no debt! I have also failed to help the economy and create wealth by refusing to take out loans.
When I opened my first bank account, I was not offered overdraft facilities. 10 years later, I opened another account and was offered overdraft facilities. Three months ago I opened three more accounts and was asked how much overdraft I required. How times have changed. The look of shock from the banks when I now say I don't want overdrafts, is the same look of shock, when I first asked for the facility 30 years ago.
Looks like Bradford and Bingly are next to go down the tubes. But if the government bail them out with borrowed money, that should create more wealth in the economy..... Wont it?
I now understand why I am so poor. I have no debt! I have also failed to help the economy and create wealth by refusing to take out loans.
When I opened my first bank account, I was not offered overdraft facilities. 10 years later, I opened another account and was offered overdraft facilities. Three months ago I opened three more accounts and was asked how much overdraft I required. How times have changed. The look of shock from the banks when I now say I don't want overdrafts, is the same look of shock, when I first asked for the facility 30 years ago.
Looks like Bradford and Bingly are next to go down the tubes. But if the government bail them out with borrowed money, that should create more wealth in the economy..... Wont it?
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I think flying and owning a PPL with an IMC is one of the best things for anybody considering this ATPL route. Dont give OFT and others all of your crispies, keep them, buy a share in an aircraft and get your kicks flying when you like and under your say so, DONT GET SUCKED INTO THE ATPL BLACKHOLE and end up eating dog food, feeling bitter.
I do agree that, recession or not, the potential job market has been oversold by all the FTOs for the past couple of years. Ultimately, as others have said, they all exist to make a profit and the more students they can get through their doors the better.
On top of this, employees of these organisations rely on the airline industry as much as we (as student pilots) will be relying on it for our first jobs. They're not going to portray an overly negative picture and shoot themselves in the foot. Even if, in the short term, they turn out a glut of students who fail to find jobs, they've been paid for the training regardless...
No one can predict the future. We've been told for years that a recession is due. Is this it? Who can say.
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From my personal experience, the front office staff that i work with are only interested in doing the next deal, the more deals they did the more money they bought into our bank and hence better bonuses (i can testify to that 
). Management didn't really understand what us 'youngens' were doing and on several occassions when we were launching different 'debt products' i and others did say that if the lending stopped we would be in trouble! They didn't care less what the outcome was and now the "
is hitting the fan" they are looking for people to blame.
Management, the FSA & the Bank of england didn't understand these complex products until it was too late
Right now we need to take the lessons learnt from this mess, and never repeat it but somehow i think they will be forgotten in the long run when another genius quant comes up up with another way to sell debt..
Right back to some stories of note:
1) Oil prices fall by more than $5
2) More job cuts at UK housebuilders
3) Back to the '70s?
4) High-speed trains seize short-haul market as fuel cost cripples the airlines
5) Southwest allies with Canada's WestJet in landmark pact
). Management didn't really understand what us 'youngens' were doing and on several occassions when we were launching different 'debt products' i and others did say that if the lending stopped we would be in trouble! They didn't care less what the outcome was and now the " is hitting the fan" they are looking for people to blame.Management, the FSA & the Bank of england didn't understand these complex products until it was too late
Right now we need to take the lessons learnt from this mess, and never repeat it but somehow i think they will be forgotten in the long run when another genius quant comes up up with another way to sell debt..
Right back to some stories of note:
1) Oil prices fall by more than $5
The impact of a global economic slowdown on demand for oil has caused prices to fall by more than $5, with London seeing the largest drop.
Bovis Homes and Redrow have become the latest UK housebuilders to announce a sweeping reduction in their workforces.
4) High-speed trains seize short-haul market as fuel cost cripples the airlines
The lounge was thronged with bleary-eyed and grumpy suits looking in vain for seats. The endless queue for coffee snaked past whimpering children and inconsiderate backpackers. As the PA speakers announced imminent departure, the throng became a mêlée at the exit - an escalator had jammed.
Southwest Airlines has inked a memorandum of understanding with Canadian low-cost carrier WestJet that will pave the way for the two Boeing 737 operators to initiate codeshare flights across both networks by late next year.
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God how I love reading all the comments.
cirruscrystal...the CVs you receive...are you getting any fresh CTC/Oxford guys applying for jobs? (Just curious as to what these guys are expecting after paying £60-70k)
I shall give it my best shot and hopefully with friends in the airline, they can make recommendations nearer the time. I do know for sure I could get instructing at my local airport.
You must be mad, as i posted before working for a small charter company based, we are having an increasing number of speculative CVs from numerous type rated and experienced pilots, aswell as usual newbies..
In my view, go ahead with the training if your main concern is not having regrets that you didnt try to achieve your dream, which in itself is a fair motivation. Do not go ahead if you want a job in aviation as you will not get one is the stark truth - Instructing, airlines - NO, Charter definately no due to CAA regs.
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Rons22
With reference to the number of CPLs and ATPLs issued in 2005/6/7 you need to realise that the ATPL is the next level from the CPL. i.e. you hold a CPL (fATPL) and once it’s unfrozen it will become an ATPL, this will count on the CAAs figures are two licence issues so its not as bad as you think!
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The AOC we have adopted has min of 700 PIC (200 ME) so newly qualified pilots are not eligible atall. You will find that this is the nomral minimum for charter as air taxi requires this under CAA regs. One cannot gain safety pilot time as the aircraft are single pilot operation, as are most charters so limits charter entry generally to experienced.
I am sure that you might be able to pickup some work instructing if you have a good relationship with your school.
My thoughts on it all are that if one can afford the training and it is a concern that regrets will be had later in life then should definately complete. It is not a career to follow if already in a good career in my view as aspirations can more than be achieved by flying privately and as someone said you wont get a job, you might be one of the lucky say 5-10% and you will. Even PPL training is now being hauled back due to economic situation and less people spending on private flying training.
From the guys i trained with and have kept in contact with, i am the only one employed in aviation, everybody else has gone back to old careers. All of them perfectly able and good pilots i am sure. I am only working part time with charter company and continue to work as a teacher part time, to provide properly for my family and keep the sensible career open.
I am sure that you might be able to pickup some work instructing if you have a good relationship with your school.
My thoughts on it all are that if one can afford the training and it is a concern that regrets will be had later in life then should definately complete. It is not a career to follow if already in a good career in my view as aspirations can more than be achieved by flying privately and as someone said you wont get a job, you might be one of the lucky say 5-10% and you will. Even PPL training is now being hauled back due to economic situation and less people spending on private flying training.
From the guys i trained with and have kept in contact with, i am the only one employed in aviation, everybody else has gone back to old careers. All of them perfectly able and good pilots i am sure. I am only working part time with charter company and continue to work as a teacher part time, to provide properly for my family and keep the sensible career open.
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The AOC we have adopted has min of 700 PIC (200 ME) so newly qualified pilots are not eligible atall. You will find that this is the nomral minimum for charter as air taxi requires this under CAA regs. One cannot gain safety pilot time as the aircraft are single pilot operation, as are most charters so limits charter entry generally to experienced.
I am sure that you might be able to pickup some work instructing if you have a good relationship with your school.
My thoughts on it all are that if one can afford the training and it is a concern that regrets will be had later in life then should definately complete. It is not a career to follow if already in a good career in my view as aspirations can more than be achieved by flying privately and as someone said you wont get a job, you might be one of the lucky say 5-10% and you will. Even PPL training is now being hauled back due to economic situation and less people spending on private flying training.
From the guys i trained with and have kept in contact with, i am the only one employed in aviation, everybody else has gone back to old careers. All of them perfectly able and good pilots i am sure. I am only working part time with charter company and continue to work as a teacher part time, to provide properly for my family and keep the sensible career open.
I am sure that you might be able to pickup some work instructing if you have a good relationship with your school.
My thoughts on it all are that if one can afford the training and it is a concern that regrets will be had later in life then should definately complete. It is not a career to follow if already in a good career in my view as aspirations can more than be achieved by flying privately and as someone said you wont get a job, you might be one of the lucky say 5-10% and you will. Even PPL training is now being hauled back due to economic situation and less people spending on private flying training.
From the guys i trained with and have kept in contact with, i am the only one employed in aviation, everybody else has gone back to old careers. All of them perfectly able and good pilots i am sure. I am only working part time with charter company and continue to work as a teacher part time, to provide properly for my family and keep the sensible career open.
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thanks cirruscrystal for making me feel so much better! 
there will always be an aviation industry and pilots new 'will' be required. I'm not giving up yet! Maybe when I'm 50 I'll consider not starting a career in an airline 
That is my only concern but is just a concern, having at least 700+hrs TT and having sufficent ME hrs. It's all £££££ but only one life.
Can someone give me this weeks winning lottery numbers?
I'll be entirely grateful and spend it wisely
there will always be an aviation industry and pilots new 'will' be required. I'm not giving up yet!
Maybe when I'm 50 I'll consider not starting a career in an airline That is my only concern but is just a concern, having at least 700+hrs TT and having sufficent ME hrs. It's all £££££ but only one life.
Can someone give me this weeks winning lottery numbers?
I'll be entirely grateful and spend it wisely
http://thecrownblogspot.************...rs-jowell.html
This is very speculative but if you watch the start of this clip Andrew Neil, hosting The Daily Politics show today, he says house prices are down 11% year on year which is not true. Its just under 7%. BUT the Halifax house price figures for June are STILL not published. Its never been later than the 3rd of the month.. They should have been out nearly a week ago. Why the delay?
Is it that the month of June has seen a 4% fall in the average house price?!
Did Andrew Neil speak of a currently embargoed report?
All will be revealed before tomorrows MPC meeting I suspect. If its anything above the record 2.5% monthly fall we say a few weeks ago you will see PANIC level drops in consumer confidence.
Perhaps the US points to what is to come - Levi jeans saw their profits drop 98% for the last quarter compared to the same quarter in 2007. Americans are down to cutting out their spending on denim.. Now THAT'S bad.
I think the evidence of the downturn is clear for all and uncontested. What we may have now is evidence of a full, sharp, sustained, Recession.
WWW
This is very speculative but if you watch the start of this clip Andrew Neil, hosting The Daily Politics show today, he says house prices are down 11% year on year which is not true. Its just under 7%. BUT the Halifax house price figures for June are STILL not published. Its never been later than the 3rd of the month.. They should have been out nearly a week ago. Why the delay?
Is it that the month of June has seen a 4% fall in the average house price?!
Did Andrew Neil speak of a currently embargoed report?
All will be revealed before tomorrows MPC meeting I suspect. If its anything above the record 2.5% monthly fall we say a few weeks ago you will see PANIC level drops in consumer confidence.
Perhaps the US points to what is to come - Levi jeans saw their profits drop 98% for the last quarter compared to the same quarter in 2007. Americans are down to cutting out their spending on denim.. Now THAT'S bad.
I think the evidence of the downturn is clear for all and uncontested. What we may have now is evidence of a full, sharp, sustained, Recession.
WWW
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Aviation workers face tough times
More pilot news
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For any open job you're competing against 6,000 or 7,000 people from across the country," said John Stemmler, head of the Frontier Airline Pilots Association. "So you're going to be up against some stiff competition."
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Crude rises on Iran missile tests
Crude oil prices have risen on news that Iran successfully test-fired long and medium-range missiles.
In London, Brent crude rose by over $2 to $138.50 a barrel, while US light, sweet crude rose by the same amount to $138.12 a barrel.
In London, Brent crude rose by over $2 to $138.50 a barrel, while US light, sweet crude rose by the same amount to $138.12 a barrel.