This moderator wants to make a point:
He finds it ridiculous that people head into integrated flight training by securing loans on lunatic amounts of money.
The ability to take out a loan is the only real life advantage of the integrated system (except for some who offer real job prospects).
But an individual with common sense and good judgement should know better than gambling his/her parent's capital because "it's easier" instead of going for the safer but harder way of working hard to achieve his goal.
I admire people like member UAV who works 2 jobs to achieve his/her dream of flying a jet some day. I have many close friends who are in similar situations and I have a deep admiration for them all.
As I told this moderator several times already, media articles showing "how bad things are" are inappropriate because of the following reasons:
-many pilots on this forum are not starting wannabe's, many are already done with training, some are half-way there. Putting bad news on them puts unneeded pressure on them with the risk of affecting motivation.
-what is there today in the US may not affect Europe's airline 2 years from now, supposing that the moderator is intending to warn people who are about to start now and thus, be ready 2 years from now.
-too much speculation, misinformation and confusion to see what is really going on. Some media are reporting the end of the world.
(as usual I would say, remember the bluff of the millenium? year 2000: "computers may not work anymore due to inability of computers to adapt to the new time scale")
The reality is that Q1 ended with a slight growth even in the US. Airline traffic and capacity figures look pretty good in Europe, only minus point is that airline CEO's shouldn't expect a huge bonus at the end of the year.
The foreclosure crisis was launched by a government... that says enough in the actual context.
As I told you before dear moderator, if you really want to make flight training affordable, risk-free and if you really want to help motivated individuals no matter whether rich or poor, to get their licenses at a resonable price, then start your own affordable flight training program.
It takes more than pushing tabs on a computer.
Ps: AA, BA, IB are not intending to merge because of Openskies. It's a desperate move to attempt to save eachother. BA is particularily doing bad. I think that UK airlines relying too much on tatl routes will be hurt badly. Others like BMI will fight their way out.
Other than that, I agree with the OAA guy's general assessment that the US is going to see some bankruptcies.
I was told yesterday by a FAA guy that only 4% of student pilots at Embry-Riddle are Americans...
Flight schools are getting empty because many locals can't afford to fly anymore with avgas prices where they are; only schools that can accommodate foreign students are full-up.
Standing at PHL (yes, I fly USAir with ticket prices where they are) I saw more pilots than passengers in the terminals. Turboprops taxied on one engine and flights with too few passengers booked on them were simply cancelled (yes, happened to me twice...in a day), pax transferred to hotels (it was a nice hotel, 4*, thanks USAir).
Local (Ohio, USA) student pilots close to finishing training have a positive attitude, many of them think that the high fuel cost would see a surge in turbo-props, thus resulting in jobs for them... not sure what to tell them (I usually nod) but I know that the last thing I would do is to make them lose their hopes and motivation.