Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
But you believe that:
So surely my choice of words is of no matter?
Anyway, enough squabling. Back to the topic. Its not looking good is it?
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warned yesterday, after two bleak reports showed that activity in the country's vital services sector has slumped to its lowest level since 2001 and the credit squeeze on businesses is worsening.
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn - Telegraph
John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc
Department store operator John Lewis Partnership saw sales slump by 8.3pc over the week to June 28, with some of its large out-of-town shops seeing sales fall by as much as 25pc.
The retailer said that shopping centres in the south of England fared particularly badly. Sales at the retailer have now dropped for seven out of the last eight weeks.
The bad figures from John Lewis back up claims by Sir Stuart Rose, the Marks & Spencer chairman, that the downturn affecting retailers is market-wide and deep-rooted.
John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc - Telegraph
Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away
Bradford & Bingley shares tumbled this morning after US private equity firm Texas Pacific Group walked away from a deal to inject money into the bank, forcing the ailing lender to fall back on investors for an emergency cash injection.
The shares had fallen more than 10pc by late morning trading, leaving them down more than 90pc this year.
Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away - Telegraph
So thats the economy, the retailers and the banks all in deep trouble. Airlines live in the economy operate as Fast Moving Consumer Goods sellers and are nearly always in huge debt to the banks.
WWW
Little Johnny isnt going to listen to you....nor anyone else for that matter.
Anyway, enough squabling. Back to the topic. Its not looking good is it?
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warned yesterday, after two bleak reports showed that activity in the country's vital services sector has slumped to its lowest level since 2001 and the credit squeeze on businesses is worsening.
Britain is edging closer to recession, economists warn - Telegraph
John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc
Department store operator John Lewis Partnership saw sales slump by 8.3pc over the week to June 28, with some of its large out-of-town shops seeing sales fall by as much as 25pc.
The retailer said that shopping centres in the south of England fared particularly badly. Sales at the retailer have now dropped for seven out of the last eight weeks.
The bad figures from John Lewis back up claims by Sir Stuart Rose, the Marks & Spencer chairman, that the downturn affecting retailers is market-wide and deep-rooted.
John Lewis sees sales tumble as much as 25pc - Telegraph
Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away
Bradford & Bingley shares tumbled this morning after US private equity firm Texas Pacific Group walked away from a deal to inject money into the bank, forcing the ailing lender to fall back on investors for an emergency cash injection.
The shares had fallen more than 10pc by late morning trading, leaving them down more than 90pc this year.
Bradford & Bingley shares tumble after TPG walks away - Telegraph
So thats the economy, the retailers and the banks all in deep trouble. Airlines live in the economy operate as Fast Moving Consumer Goods sellers and are nearly always in huge debt to the banks.
WWW
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Surrey
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You're both right really. On the one hand, if you've got the opportunity to follow a dream, then you're gonna follow it, whatever the circumstances.
On the other hand, WWW is just informing us of the well documented economic situation we face at present (just in a somewhat provocative style!)
At the end of the day, wannabes have to understand that if they want to do this, they're probably gonna be waiting around for a while before that first job offer comes up. And that could be costly if you've got Mr HSBC up your a*se!!
Thanks for the laughs guys, everyone loves seeing two grown men arguing in public!!
On the other hand, WWW is just informing us of the well documented economic situation we face at present (just in a somewhat provocative style!)
At the end of the day, wannabes have to understand that if they want to do this, they're probably gonna be waiting around for a while before that first job offer comes up. And that could be costly if you've got Mr HSBC up your a*se!!
Thanks for the laughs guys, everyone loves seeing two grown men arguing in public!!
Shall we have a group hug?
WWW
ps I agree the evidence is all around us now so it does seem that we are pointing out the obvious. Please bear in mind that this thread was started and my position was taken back in early February. At that point most people thought I was mad to have sold my house in expectation of a crash and that the economy was about to recover from a slight credit crunch..
WWW
ps I agree the evidence is all around us now so it does seem that we are pointing out the obvious. Please bear in mind that this thread was started and my position was taken back in early February. At that point most people thought I was mad to have sold my house in expectation of a crash and that the economy was about to recover from a slight credit crunch..
Thread Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Now it is obvious the slowdown is upon us I agree the original title is less appropriate.... maybe rename the thread to "how to survive the downturn".... then young plonkers would want to secure a £100k pilot training scheme debt on mum and dads house can at least still get a bit of help about how life actually works in the real world.... then maybe everyone will be happy 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Top Draw, Right Hand Side
Age: 38
Posts: 224
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yeah did anyone see news at ten last night? what a laugh. The government has hung themselves this time! Announcing that they've voted to keep the massive unreceipted expense allowances (what a surprise!!!) for second home furnishings and various goodies from John Lewis has likely pissed off the enitre nation in one fowl swoop! Pigs in a trough!!!
Sorry to stray from the point, back to the doom and gloom......
Sorry to stray from the point, back to the doom and gloom......
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: UK
Posts: 254
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
At the end of the day WWW does have a point, HOWEVER, i dont think it has been mentioned once on here that regardless of what is going on economically. Us wannabes are still REQUIRED to get the QUALIFICATIONS in order to get a flying job! It does not matter how bad it is, the CAA still have the time limits for passing this and passing that! They havent said ' ok guys and girls the economy is in bits lets relax the training regs a bit and let people take longer to rain or take a break from training!
Lets look:
18 months to complete all ATPL's from date of first pass
36 months to complete all flying training from the date of the last exam pass
Yes three years seems a long time, but for those of us like me who took the exams 1.5 years ago! The clocks ticking!! We didnt know then that this was comming.
Just a bit of food for thought. Now for the stary eyed kids now beginning integrated courses, fully knwing whats going on..... well thats another matter!!
Lets look:
18 months to complete all ATPL's from date of first pass
36 months to complete all flying training from the date of the last exam pass
Yes three years seems a long time, but for those of us like me who took the exams 1.5 years ago! The clocks ticking!! We didnt know then that this was comming.
Just a bit of food for thought. Now for the stary eyed kids now beginning integrated courses, fully knwing whats going on..... well thats another matter!!
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Moody's says business models of many airlines 'are unsustainable'
In a deeply pessimistic assessment of the American airline industry, Moody's, the credit ratings agency, said yesterday that the business models of many carriers were “unsustainable”. The agency's analysts said that US airlines were particularly vulnerable to high oil prices and even large carriers could be forced into bankruptcy.
The record high price of oil has increased operating costs for airlines around the world and many are struggling to survive.
The record high price of oil has increased operating costs for airlines around the world and many are struggling to survive.
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Madrid
Age: 47
Posts: 67
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
777 driver in LA
You too are sitting in the deck chair and coming up with your "opinion" , your in no better position than anybody (WWW) to know. Nobody can know for sure there can only be a broad expectation. We manage a large fund here from Spain in Stocks , i can tell you that we made ( and will continue to ) a packet shorting airline stocks , homebuilders , banks and buying oil. A While back people laughed when i predicted oil to continue to climb ( it was about 90 dollars then ). We have a target of 175 USD a barrell with a stronger dollar than we are seeing now. 160 Dollars we think within 20 days.
The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )
I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.
When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...
If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.
No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.
The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )
I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.
When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...
If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.
No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.
Last edited by thirtysomething; 6th Jul 2008 at 00:09.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Can airlines survive $200-a-barrel oil?
It wasn’t too long ago that the prospect of crude oil prices hitting $100 a barrel seemed unthinkable. Now with oil prices having smashed through the $140-a-barrel barrier, some are predicting that it could go as high as $200.
Can any airlines really survive $200-a-barrel oil, and how would oil at these prices alter the landscape of the global airline industry?
Already the global airline industry has found itself in crisis mode as carriers struggle to come to terms with record high oil prices. IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said at the industry body’s annual meeting in Istanbul in June that, based on an average oil price of $107 per barrel, the world’s airlines would incur a loss of $2.3 billion in 2008.
Can any airlines really survive $200-a-barrel oil, and how would oil at these prices alter the landscape of the global airline industry?
Already the global airline industry has found itself in crisis mode as carriers struggle to come to terms with record high oil prices. IATA director general Giovanni Bisignani said at the industry body’s annual meeting in Istanbul in June that, based on an average oil price of $107 per barrel, the world’s airlines would incur a loss of $2.3 billion in 2008.
There is so much speculation about where the world economy is going over the short and long term. One thing is definite and that is no one really knows, everyone has their educated or un-educated opinion as it may be but the only sure thing is things will not stay the same! Interesting that flybe's breakeven point is $176 a barrel. Perhaps the medium term solution for aviation in Europe is turbo props! From my reading it seems the summer is always a slow time for recruitment, it will be very interesting to see what happens in October/November when a lot of airlines will start thinking about pilot requirement for the next year. I'm the first person to look at the negative side of something I'll admit, however I don't believe the industry will collapse. I am fairly sure that capacity will be reduced within the US and EU airlines and a fair few smaller airlines will go bankrupt or merge with larger carriers.
I think the bigger issue than just the price of oil is the energy demands and supplies of the world. There needs to be some decisions made very soon, about where we are going to get our power from for the next 30 - 50 years. In Britain, our nuclear plants are coming to the end of their lifespan and I for one support the building of new ones. I believe the price of Oil will go down eventually, look at the dot com bubble in the 90's and the housing market. Massive unsustainable growth that eventually goes poop.
I think the bigger issue than just the price of oil is the energy demands and supplies of the world. There needs to be some decisions made very soon, about where we are going to get our power from for the next 30 - 50 years. In Britain, our nuclear plants are coming to the end of their lifespan and I for one support the building of new ones. I believe the price of Oil will go down eventually, look at the dot com bubble in the 90's and the housing market. Massive unsustainable growth that eventually goes poop.
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Age: 43
Posts: 228
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Let me summarise my thoughts on the whole flying situation right now.
I'm glad i'm not an Integrated student and have gone down the Modular route with a job as a backup and no debts (yet!!).
The storm will clear, when, who knows, but for now, play your cards right, keep plugging away and "luck" will have it's way.
WWW, is submitting some good posting, whilst I'm not bothering to read all these postings, I already know the state of the market. Welcome to reality.
My tip is stop reading too much on Pprune, get on with other things in your life, life isn't just about flying!
Try to remain positive people and don't do silly things
I'm glad i'm not an Integrated student and have gone down the Modular route with a job as a backup and no debts (yet!!).
The storm will clear, when, who knows, but for now, play your cards right, keep plugging away and "luck" will have it's way.
WWW, is submitting some good posting, whilst I'm not bothering to read all these postings, I already know the state of the market. Welcome to reality.
My tip is stop reading too much on Pprune, get on with other things in your life, life isn't just about flying!
Try to remain positive people and don't do silly things
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Location: Location:
Age: 53
Posts: 1,110
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Cirrus Clouds
And perhaps more to the point if I was on an interview panel and listened to that reasoned opinion I would be mighty impressed and more than likely offer you the job. Full Marks......
That being opposed to some dope who listened to the Oxford Marketing bull**** and managed to get his parents house in to hock to the tune of £75k.
Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble"
And perhaps more to the point if I was on an interview panel and listened to that reasoned opinion I would be mighty impressed and more than likely offer you the job. Full Marks......
That being opposed to some dope who listened to the Oxford Marketing bull**** and managed to get his parents house in to hock to the tune of £75k.
Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble"
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Age: 43
Posts: 228
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
OAT would be my place to go if I were doing an Integrated course, but let's just say, I've got quite a bit of "sales" experience 
.
I would still get on with training, but going for the safer/less risky option.
.I would still get on with training, but going for the safer/less risky option.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Having said that integrated might be the way to go because of all the Vietnam Vets approaching 60 and the BA retirement "bubble"
)