Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Gazprom predicts oil will reach $250
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23928598-3...nclick_check=1
Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, on Tuesday predicted oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009.
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Heli port before only posting negative and only including this, you forgot to list the link from yesterday where Arjun Narayan Murti from Goldman Sachs estimated oil price to be around 75$ within xx years. 
It's easy to only focus on the negative, but only tell half the truth IMO is wrong
It's easy to only focus on the negative, but only tell half the truth IMO is wrong
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http://borsen.dk/okonomi/nyhed/133588/newsfeeds_rss/
Its in Danish but if you use an translator you'll see that
""Vores langsigtede vurdering over de næste 20 år er, at oliepriserne vil falde tilbage til 75 dollar per tønde. Spørgsmålet er, hvor længe de forbliver høje," siger Arjun Narayan Murti ifølge avisen."
Our longterm estimate over the next 20 years is, that oilprices will continue to fall back to 75 dollars pr barrell. Question is, how long they will stay at this high level", says Arjun Narayan Murti accordingly.
The article is from the Danish "Børsen" which is a financial paper.
I saw the article too on an english website, but I cannot find that anylonger
Its in Danish but if you use an translator you'll see that
""Vores langsigtede vurdering over de næste 20 år er, at oliepriserne vil falde tilbage til 75 dollar per tønde. Spørgsmålet er, hvor længe de forbliver høje," siger Arjun Narayan Murti ifølge avisen."
Our longterm estimate over the next 20 years is, that oilprices will continue to fall back to 75 dollars pr barrell. Question is, how long they will stay at this high level", says Arjun Narayan Murti accordingly.
The article is from the Danish "Børsen" which is a financial paper.
I saw the article too on an english website, but I cannot find that anylonger
The markets are rife with banks in trouble stories this afternoon. Markets are down, Washington Mutual, Leham, RBS, HBOS, Alliance & Leicester all down >8%. The UK builders like Barratt are down [92%] from last year, Persimmon have stopped building (UK's largest builder), unemployment ticking up, interest rates set to rise whilst house sales plunge the most in 30 years.
They've taken down the Wannabe warning signs and replaced them with 18ft high neon flashing versions with scantily clad ladies handing out flyers in the streets whilst taking out television ads and sponsoring Man U. MAJOR RECESSION happening now - data to follow, several airline bust shortly, DO NOT BORROW large sums to fund training - it will NOT pay off.
WWW
They've taken down the Wannabe warning signs and replaced them with 18ft high neon flashing versions with scantily clad ladies handing out flyers in the streets whilst taking out television ads and sponsoring Man U. MAJOR RECESSION happening now - data to follow, several airline bust shortly, DO NOT BORROW large sums to fund training - it will NOT pay off.
WWW
Oil will end the day higher from when I post this - I guarantee it.
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WWW,
What would your advice be to those that have recently completed their training, just about to starting paying back loans and due to start their first airline job very soon....?
What would your advice be to those that have recently completed their training, just about to starting paying back loans and due to start their first airline job very soon....?
my advice would be to keep everything crossed (fingers, toes, arms, legs) and hope you get that first jet job you talk of. (why do people automatically think they'll go straight into an airliner job after training? There are many people who never get there even after spending thousands)
I'd make sure you have a backup plan/job to be able to pay the loans off. You really dont want to go bankrupt do you?
Good luck.
I'd make sure you have a backup plan/job to be able to pay the loans off. You really dont want to go bankrupt do you?
Good luck.
Umm, congratulations on securing a first job. Sit tight and hope you get to keep it. Don't buy a house for the next 24 months and research personal insolvency legislation just in case things go wrong.
WWW
WWW
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I doubt anyone just finishing training or securing their first job would be in a position to buy a house (unless Mummy and Daddy help). 24 months!! More like 84 (when the CTC loan is paid back). Shame because by then prices will be back up and I for one will be laughing all the way to the bank.
Oil back at $90/barrel!!!
did a quick google search for todays oil price and got this link:-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7068642.stm
Great News!!!
What a shock, then saw the date!!!
Try this site:-
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7068642.stm
Great News!!!
What a shock, then saw the date!!!
Try this site:-
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
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cheers SAB nice to hear someone saying something positive amongst all this negativity but i remain sceptical that the price will drop down that low. The reason for this is i also work for Goldman sachs london and every analyst in my office says the price of oil will permanently be above $100.
Anyhow lets see...
Oil rises on crude supply concern
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7447956.stm
Anyhow lets see...
Oil rises on crude supply concern
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7447956.stm
$137.30 for US sweet crude as I type 
The trouble will really start in the UK when Sterling takes a hammering against the dollar as this will spark a sharp (further) increase in the UK fuel price and and the price of all our imported goods and materials. As a net importer of some margin this will drive inflation through the roof.
For this reason UK Interest Rates will be raised to defend the currency. This will send the house price market into full collapse leading to a recession of the scale of the 1990's with several large airline failures and massive consolodation.
Welcome to 1990 - Aceeee'd!!
(blows whistle, don's white gloves and heat responsive T-shirt)
WWW
The trouble will really start in the UK when Sterling takes a hammering against the dollar as this will spark a sharp (further) increase in the UK fuel price and and the price of all our imported goods and materials. As a net importer of some margin this will drive inflation through the roof.
For this reason UK Interest Rates will be raised to defend the currency. This will send the house price market into full collapse leading to a recession of the scale of the 1990's with several large airline failures and massive consolodation.
Welcome to 1990 - Aceeee'd!!
(blows whistle, don's white gloves and heat responsive T-shirt)WWW
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WWW
I actually think your view is optimistic. Factory and farm gate price inflation is now into double figures. So far much of this has been absorbed. When it hits the high street, which it will, I see a recession on a scale of that of the 70's, possibly worse. The big fear is the rising food prices, something people cant economise that much on, so spending on other goods and services will take a big hit. The next bad news to come, is likely to be rising unemployment, later this year maybe. I see in today's news that the EU is to take action over the way the UK government has been spending and borrowing. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7447531.stm Whether or not the EU is correct, it's a clear indicator that our economy is not just miss-managed, but is in a bad way.
I actually think your view is optimistic. Factory and farm gate price inflation is now into double figures. So far much of this has been absorbed. When it hits the high street, which it will, I see a recession on a scale of that of the 70's, possibly worse. The big fear is the rising food prices, something people cant economise that much on, so spending on other goods and services will take a big hit. The next bad news to come, is likely to be rising unemployment, later this year maybe. I see in today's news that the EU is to take action over the way the UK government has been spending and borrowing. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7447531.stm Whether or not the EU is correct, it's a clear indicator that our economy is not just miss-managed, but is in a bad way.
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WWW, may I suggest you moderate yourself
You do have to start questioning the "little mans" motives/what's really going on in his head/life satisfaction levels when it comes to his constant and never ending ramblings/predictions/airlines going bust...it's all really very odd...it goes further than Moderating this forum...
Welcome back Scroggs!
A sound, well reasoned aviator...
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Whilst the press has been engaging in endless discussion over who to blame for the current oil crisis, whether it's those nasty Arabs, the greedy politicians, the big bad oil companies or those evil speculators, one thing happened today that got surprisingly little attention - BP published their annual "Statistical Review of World Energy 2008". It's a rather dry document with very few words but lots of numbers. Published every year it's the closest thing the world has to an authoritative assessment of the state of the world energy market.
Buried in the numbers in the spreadsheet reveals that last year saw a decline of 0.2% in global oil production. Even juicy OPEC saw a decline of 1.2%. The only region to increase production was Russia (3.9%) but they've since admitted that they've hit their peak. Looking back at past years data (the document goes back to 1965) shows that never before has every region of the world showed either declines or negligibly-tiny growth.
Still, one point of data doth not a trend make, but there's no mistaking that 2006 was a peak in global oil production. Of course, only time will tell if this was "a peak" or "the peak" and besides, global production also showed declines in 2002, 2001, 1999, 1991, 1985, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980 & 1975 - indeed some much larger than 2007's.
Comparing the global consumption vs production figures against the inflation-adjusted price reveals a more worrying trend: unlike during previous oil crises, consumption today is steadily greater than production and the divergence is increasing. This was not the case in previous crises when production rapidly increased to above consumption whereas today, production is flat (or slightly decreasing).
Oh well, on the upside, yesterday I passed my motorcycle knowledge test!
Buried in the numbers in the spreadsheet reveals that last year saw a decline of 0.2% in global oil production. Even juicy OPEC saw a decline of 1.2%. The only region to increase production was Russia (3.9%) but they've since admitted that they've hit their peak. Looking back at past years data (the document goes back to 1965) shows that never before has every region of the world showed either declines or negligibly-tiny growth.
Still, one point of data doth not a trend make, but there's no mistaking that 2006 was a peak in global oil production. Of course, only time will tell if this was "a peak" or "the peak" and besides, global production also showed declines in 2002, 2001, 1999, 1991, 1985, 1983, 1982, 1981, 1980 & 1975 - indeed some much larger than 2007's.
Comparing the global consumption vs production figures against the inflation-adjusted price reveals a more worrying trend: unlike during previous oil crises, consumption today is steadily greater than production and the divergence is increasing. This was not the case in previous crises when production rapidly increased to above consumption whereas today, production is flat (or slightly decreasing).
Oh well, on the upside, yesterday I passed my motorcycle knowledge test!