Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Opinion!
A lot of opinions flying about on this thread with WWW at one end of the scale and Nic-Av at the other (and me somewere in the middle).
I would not take advice from my plumber on medical issues so why the hell should you take advice from any professional pilots (well WWW and me) on financial issues?
It is for you to make up your own minds about entering aviation, I have done the airline gone bust thing with a jet job in the morning and on the dole in the afternoon, but unlike some of my other pilots I did no sit about bleating on about "fighting for my job". I accepted the situation and with a positive attitude got employment to pay the bills and then went about finding another flying job.
I have had a great time aviation, undoubtedly I could have made more money in some other profession but it would not have been as much fun. For me the risks have paid off for you they may not.
However if you don't take the risks you will forever be one of life's spectators and die wishing you had done more with your time.
But all of this is just my opinion
I would not take advice from my plumber on medical issues so why the hell should you take advice from any professional pilots (well WWW and me) on financial issues?
It is for you to make up your own minds about entering aviation, I have done the airline gone bust thing with a jet job in the morning and on the dole in the afternoon, but unlike some of my other pilots I did no sit about bleating on about "fighting for my job". I accepted the situation and with a positive attitude got employment to pay the bills and then went about finding another flying job.
I have had a great time aviation, undoubtedly I could have made more money in some other profession but it would not have been as much fun. For me the risks have paid off for you they may not.
However if you don't take the risks you will forever be one of life's spectators and die wishing you had done more with your time.
But all of this is just my opinion
http://www.erinaceous.com/index.php
Employing 5000 staff in the property services industry they called in the Administrators this morning. Thats many more staff than were working at Rover Cars when it went under.
We are moving into the job loss phase now. Fear and panic in the housing market will see accelerated losses and very possibly a run on another bank or building society and yes I am looking at you in the bowler hat.
The rapidly broadening realisation amongst the general population is that the credit crunch is not going to be confined to the rarified and removed world of high finance and hedge fund. This realisation will result in reduced spending decisions. All airlines have high fixed costs and a rapid drop in sales on tiny margins means they often go from bumper year to crisis at amazing speed.
By all means continue to deploy your training plan. Perhaps research personal bankruptcy/IVA laws though so you know what your options might be if you do find yourself entering the jobs market during a recession. Perhaps you could structure your finances NOW to protect your assets if the worst comes to the worst and you end up unemployed and severely in debt.
WWW
Employing 5000 staff in the property services industry they called in the Administrators this morning. Thats many more staff than were working at Rover Cars when it went under.
We are moving into the job loss phase now. Fear and panic in the housing market will see accelerated losses and very possibly a run on another bank or building society and yes I am looking at you in the bowler hat.
The rapidly broadening realisation amongst the general population is that the credit crunch is not going to be confined to the rarified and removed world of high finance and hedge fund. This realisation will result in reduced spending decisions. All airlines have high fixed costs and a rapid drop in sales on tiny margins means they often go from bumper year to crisis at amazing speed.
By all means continue to deploy your training plan. Perhaps research personal bankruptcy/IVA laws though so you know what your options might be if you do find yourself entering the jobs market during a recession. Perhaps you could structure your finances NOW to protect your assets if the worst comes to the worst and you end up unemployed and severely in debt.
WWW
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WWW if your read the companies press release it states in its letter...
"The administrators of the Company expect to effect a sale of the Insurance
division of the Group, Erinaceous Insurance Services Limited, to a company owned by the Company's lenders.
i.e ... they let them go bust so they could pick up the holding
The Residential Management division (Residential Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries) and Property Maintenance division (Erinaceous Property
Maintenance Limited) also remain outside of any insolvency process and continue to trade as normal"
i.e. ... trade as normal, implying no job losses
Maybe you should check the facts on this particular Company if using it to make a point, before shouting "JOB LOSSES" on here.
"The administrators of the Company expect to effect a sale of the Insurance
division of the Group, Erinaceous Insurance Services Limited, to a company owned by the Company's lenders.
i.e ... they let them go bust so they could pick up the holding
The Residential Management division (Residential Management Group Limited and its subsidiaries) and Property Maintenance division (Erinaceous Property
Maintenance Limited) also remain outside of any insolvency process and continue to trade as normal"
i.e. ... trade as normal, implying no job losses
Maybe you should check the facts on this particular Company if using it to make a point, before shouting "JOB LOSSES" on here.
Its a fair point. Calling in the Administrators doesn't necessarily mean there will be job losses and doubtless there is value to be had in a restructure. I think you'd be very worried if you worked there though? This isn't a local chain of estate agents laying off a few sales staff (though 4,000 will be this year according to their own trade body).
WWW
WWW
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You grasp the failure of this company as evidence of the crash theory that you are so keen to promote but the company had had a less than clean reputation for some years.
If you had been at Shoreham Airport (one of the company's investments) you would have picked up on rumours about the company a long time back.
The fact of the matter is this company was likely to have gone to the wall at any time and the economic slow down just made the failure sooner rather than later.
Further to that I am told that fraud is being investigated, if this is so the failure of the company might well be down to some one with there hands in the till if this turns out to be the case it hardly supports your economic crash theory.
If you had been at Shoreham Airport (one of the company's investments) you would have picked up on rumours about the company a long time back.
The fact of the matter is this company was likely to have gone to the wall at any time and the economic slow down just made the failure sooner rather than later.
Further to that I am told that fraud is being investigated, if this is so the failure of the company might well be down to some one with there hands in the till if this turns out to be the case it hardly supports your economic crash theory.
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How about this one...
Credit crunch continues to bite business says Ernst & Young
~Profit warnings top 100 for second consecutive quarter~
Research released by Ernst & Young today reveals that UK plc saw no respite in the first quarter of 2008 as profit warnings reached 114; the highest first quarter figure since 2001 and up 11 per cent from Q1 2007.
Keith McGregor, Restructuring partner at Ernst & Young comments: “Profit warnings remained above the 100 mark for the second quarter in a row, driven by the deepening impact of the credit crunch and a record number of retail warnings. The last time UK plc issued more than 100 profit warnings in consecutive quarters it was 2001, when the end of the technology-led boom meant painful readjustment. The hangover from the credit-boom could be equally severe especially as some sectors are warning on current poor trading but may have failed to factor in the impact of a sustained downturn in demand.”
“The credit crunch will become real and personal to borrowers this year, especially the two million mortgage holders coming off fix-rate deals. The base rate is expected to continue to fall gradually in 2008, but the same inflationary pressures that will limit the ability of the Bank of England to lower rates, will also eat into the benefit of any rate cut for the consumer. The period of economic uncertainty may even persuade individuals to increase savings from their historic lows, leaving retailers with even less of the disposable income pie.”
You don't have to look far for more and more evidence that things are deteriorating at an astonishing rate...
Credit crunch continues to bite business says Ernst & Young
~Profit warnings top 100 for second consecutive quarter~
Research released by Ernst & Young today reveals that UK plc saw no respite in the first quarter of 2008 as profit warnings reached 114; the highest first quarter figure since 2001 and up 11 per cent from Q1 2007.
Keith McGregor, Restructuring partner at Ernst & Young comments: “Profit warnings remained above the 100 mark for the second quarter in a row, driven by the deepening impact of the credit crunch and a record number of retail warnings. The last time UK plc issued more than 100 profit warnings in consecutive quarters it was 2001, when the end of the technology-led boom meant painful readjustment. The hangover from the credit-boom could be equally severe especially as some sectors are warning on current poor trading but may have failed to factor in the impact of a sustained downturn in demand.”
“The credit crunch will become real and personal to borrowers this year, especially the two million mortgage holders coming off fix-rate deals. The base rate is expected to continue to fall gradually in 2008, but the same inflationary pressures that will limit the ability of the Bank of England to lower rates, will also eat into the benefit of any rate cut for the consumer. The period of economic uncertainty may even persuade individuals to increase savings from their historic lows, leaving retailers with even less of the disposable income pie.”
You don't have to look far for more and more evidence that things are deteriorating at an astonishing rate...
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WWW
WWw - out of interest, what's your estimated break-even point with selling your house? Ie: what percentage drop in the market do you need to cover the costs of selling and then buying (ignoring the personal hassle factor, just plain numbers).
I've been considering doing the same.
I've been considering doing the same.
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I assume when calculating the "break even point" one would factor in the wasted money spent on rent in the interim period? Ok, i suppose you could say that the large portion of a mortgage payment is to cover the interest leaving a relitively small portion to actually cover the repayment.
Oh I've been shorting this company for some time. My view is that only three parts of the business (insurance, the residential management unit and the property maintenance division) look likely to be spun out. The rest is toast.
Americas 4th largest bank needing $8bn of emergency funding today. UK manufacturers are seeing costs rising by a record 20.4 per cent in March (factory gate prices hit at 17-year high). Philips followed GE from last week in announcing a slump in profits this morning (28%).
It doesn't matter if you are selling money, making widgets or designing white goods - all sectors of the economy are suffering. The airline sector just can't escape this.
WWW
Americas 4th largest bank needing $8bn of emergency funding today. UK manufacturers are seeing costs rising by a record 20.4 per cent in March (factory gate prices hit at 17-year high). Philips followed GE from last week in announcing a slump in profits this morning (28%).
It doesn't matter if you are selling money, making widgets or designing white goods - all sectors of the economy are suffering. The airline sector just can't escape this.
WWW
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WWW- points are very valid and aspiring pilots would do well to listen to his words of wisdom instead of going on the attack (thank god I don’t have to sit next to any of you on a 12hr flight)
I work as a consultant in the hedge fund industry and know of a lot of people are actually canceling yacht orders… haha ..
Macro economically the outlook does not look bright at all. LIBOR spreads against bank of England base rate is massive, US and UK gov auctions were 3 times over subscribed last month. Banks are basically hording cash as their balance sheets have taken a massive hit. The entire UK economy will suffer, home lending, business lending , finance leading , business investment all will be effected.
I think its fair to say all of the airlines will have killed their expansion plans…. There’s that number being banded around that lot’s of pilots will be retiring soon which will create a massive pilot shortage. If the airlines still lack pilots after the cut backs I’m sure you guys will do great J …
I think you need to take the wider global economic outlook into consideration before signing up to that 50k HSBC loan (If u can still get it ) then looking for a job (that might not be there) and still having the £1000 per month loan repayments for seven years.
I really don’t know how you guys manage to pay back £1000 a month on £30k a year the sums just don’t add up. For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!
I work as a consultant in the hedge fund industry and know of a lot of people are actually canceling yacht orders… haha ..
Macro economically the outlook does not look bright at all. LIBOR spreads against bank of England base rate is massive, US and UK gov auctions were 3 times over subscribed last month. Banks are basically hording cash as their balance sheets have taken a massive hit. The entire UK economy will suffer, home lending, business lending , finance leading , business investment all will be effected.
I think its fair to say all of the airlines will have killed their expansion plans…. There’s that number being banded around that lot’s of pilots will be retiring soon which will create a massive pilot shortage. If the airlines still lack pilots after the cut backs I’m sure you guys will do great J …
I think you need to take the wider global economic outlook into consideration before signing up to that 50k HSBC loan (If u can still get it ) then looking for a job (that might not be there) and still having the £1000 per month loan repayments for seven years.
I really don’t know how you guys manage to pay back £1000 a month on £30k a year the sums just don’t add up. For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!
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Not meaning to stick my oar in, where it is not wanted nor needed; however I do not agree as some have said, that this thread is in anyway useful to the so-called 'wannabes'. (not intended as a dig at any individual)
Personally I feel it would be a good move to transfer this thread over to 'Jet Blast'.
YS
Personally I feel it would be a good move to transfer this thread over to 'Jet Blast'.
YS
v6g I plan on 30% nominal house price falls.
The only real cost per month is:
Your released equity in the bank earning interest (around £430 a month per £100k)
PLUS
The mortgage interest you used to pay per month (around £500 a month per £100k)
PLUS
The monthly saving in Buildings and Life insurance premiums
PLUS
Whatever you budgeted for house maintenance per month
MINUS
Your new monthly rent.
In my case its a massive monthly saving to rent from a dumb BTL landlord than from the Halifax. In the current ridiculous house market it if laughably easy to rent a house that would cost you double to buy using a mortgage. Landlords are subsidising their tennants in the hope of future capital growth. Which is now capital shrinking. Which is why we have a nasty crisis. If they want to let me rent their house for (a lot) less than it costs them to buy off the bank then I'm not going to complain.
When it comes to buying you are a chain free buyer able to gaurantee to exchange within 6 weeks. That is worth tens of thousands of pounds when it comes to negotiation time. Find a distressed seller and it can be worth more than that.
Its just a little late to STR now but probably still worth it. You'd be amazed at how nice estate agents are to you when you are chain free with a chunky deposit
WWW
YellowSub - I can't think of anything more important to a Wannabes career than whether they start out in a recession or a boom. Given the amount of discussion on which school to go to (as if it matters) I think we can afford one thread on the looming crisis..
The only real cost per month is:
Your released equity in the bank earning interest (around £430 a month per £100k)
PLUS
The mortgage interest you used to pay per month (around £500 a month per £100k)
PLUS
The monthly saving in Buildings and Life insurance premiums
PLUS
Whatever you budgeted for house maintenance per month
MINUS
Your new monthly rent.
In my case its a massive monthly saving to rent from a dumb BTL landlord than from the Halifax. In the current ridiculous house market it if laughably easy to rent a house that would cost you double to buy using a mortgage. Landlords are subsidising their tennants in the hope of future capital growth. Which is now capital shrinking. Which is why we have a nasty crisis. If they want to let me rent their house for (a lot) less than it costs them to buy off the bank then I'm not going to complain.
When it comes to buying you are a chain free buyer able to gaurantee to exchange within 6 weeks. That is worth tens of thousands of pounds when it comes to negotiation time. Find a distressed seller and it can be worth more than that.
Its just a little late to STR now but probably still worth it. You'd be amazed at how nice estate agents are to you when you are chain free with a chunky deposit
WWW
YellowSub - I can't think of anything more important to a Wannabes career than whether they start out in a recession or a boom. Given the amount of discussion on which school to go to (as if it matters) I think we can afford one thread on the looming crisis..
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"For £1000 a month I could fly one or two hours in the Jet Provost and drive to the airfield in a Porsche!"
...ha ha some of us may have decided to just that for the next year or so...
As for is this thread useful well if it acts as a forum to also highlight to wanabees which airlines are struggling then why not?? (But then again I started it so I may be biased...)
...ha ha some of us may have decided to just that for the next year or so...
As for is this thread useful well if it acts as a forum to also highlight to wanabees which airlines are struggling then why not?? (But then again I started it so I may be biased...)
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It probably is one of the best times to train presuming this recession will be over in a few years, also probably the worst time to be getting into the associated debt though.
Rex - I'll start work on that time machine just after I've fixed my crystal ball.
I concede that words of warning a while back would have been timely. That's why I have been making grisly noises about the economy here for some time. Over six months ago I posted here:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...7&postcount=95
My views have hardened since then as the situation has deteriorated further and faster than I thought likely.
I think that a lot of people are expecting at worst a slowdown on the scale we saw post Sept11th which resulted in Wannabes basically having no job opportunities for around 2 years. And yes there were plenty of exceptions to that but for most guys with <500hrs there was a total drought of jobs as some airlines went bust and others froze.
My own view is that we face a 1990 - 1993 style recession rather than a 2002 - 2003 slowdown. That is a very different beast. In the months following Sept 11th in the UK you saw Ryanair and easyJet go to Boeing and Airbus and place orders for nearly 250 new aircraft. Deliveries started within a year. Both operated cadet schemes of some form and both soaked up a lot of pilots displaced from other airlines.
At this time easyJet has shut the recruitment door and Ryanair is planning to ground 20 aircraft over the winter. In both cases UK expansion is only planned to be limited and there may be none at all.
Just these two companies being in a different recruitment mode this time will see even a post Sept 11th slowdown me MUCH more painful for Wannabes than last time. A full blown recession would be an order of magnitude worse.
There are things people can do. Even if they are embarked on an Integrated course there is nothing to stop you cancelling the SSTR you were toying with doing. Nothing to stop you contacting your creditors NOW before you get to the repayment phase and seeing if terms and conditions can be improved. You can make plans for personal insolvency by perhaps spending any savings you have now rather than using a loan to preserve them for a rainy day. If you are going to go bust then its best to have spent all your money.
You might be able to choose between a full time and part time groundschool course. You might be able to ask your employer if part time working or a career break is available which given business belt tightening it might be. This might allow you to keep your old job in some form even whilst you acquire your licenses at a slower rate. You might be able to look at training abroad rather than in the UK (something I'm not a big fan of) as it can save a lot of money in the early training days given the Dollar rate.
There are lots of things to ponder. I hope this thread helps people to ponder.
I certainly think quite a few people will decide not to train or that the credit allowing them to do so will be removed. I think that a great many people will no longer be able to release money by selling their house or gettiing their parents to remortgage. I think that therefore competition for jobs may be less tough in 18 months from now.
I'm perfectly delighted that this view has been expressed as this thread is all about exploring the issues for others benefit.
I just happen to think there won't be any jobs for people to compete for as I expect some airlines to go bust in the meantime.
Which is sad and scary.
WWW
I concede that words of warning a while back would have been timely. That's why I have been making grisly noises about the economy here for some time. Over six months ago I posted here:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...7&postcount=95
My views have hardened since then as the situation has deteriorated further and faster than I thought likely.
I think that a lot of people are expecting at worst a slowdown on the scale we saw post Sept11th which resulted in Wannabes basically having no job opportunities for around 2 years. And yes there were plenty of exceptions to that but for most guys with <500hrs there was a total drought of jobs as some airlines went bust and others froze.
My own view is that we face a 1990 - 1993 style recession rather than a 2002 - 2003 slowdown. That is a very different beast. In the months following Sept 11th in the UK you saw Ryanair and easyJet go to Boeing and Airbus and place orders for nearly 250 new aircraft. Deliveries started within a year. Both operated cadet schemes of some form and both soaked up a lot of pilots displaced from other airlines.
At this time easyJet has shut the recruitment door and Ryanair is planning to ground 20 aircraft over the winter. In both cases UK expansion is only planned to be limited and there may be none at all.
Just these two companies being in a different recruitment mode this time will see even a post Sept 11th slowdown me MUCH more painful for Wannabes than last time. A full blown recession would be an order of magnitude worse.
There are things people can do. Even if they are embarked on an Integrated course there is nothing to stop you cancelling the SSTR you were toying with doing. Nothing to stop you contacting your creditors NOW before you get to the repayment phase and seeing if terms and conditions can be improved. You can make plans for personal insolvency by perhaps spending any savings you have now rather than using a loan to preserve them for a rainy day. If you are going to go bust then its best to have spent all your money.
You might be able to choose between a full time and part time groundschool course. You might be able to ask your employer if part time working or a career break is available which given business belt tightening it might be. This might allow you to keep your old job in some form even whilst you acquire your licenses at a slower rate. You might be able to look at training abroad rather than in the UK (something I'm not a big fan of) as it can save a lot of money in the early training days given the Dollar rate.
There are lots of things to ponder. I hope this thread helps people to ponder.
I certainly think quite a few people will decide not to train or that the credit allowing them to do so will be removed. I think that a great many people will no longer be able to release money by selling their house or gettiing their parents to remortgage. I think that therefore competition for jobs may be less tough in 18 months from now.
I'm perfectly delighted that this view has been expressed as this thread is all about exploring the issues for others benefit.
I just happen to think there won't be any jobs for people to compete for as I expect some airlines to go bust in the meantime.
Which is sad and scary.
WWW
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Ah Ha ! real money based trainning.
WWW it s good to see that you have mentioned that it might be better to do a modular course over a longer period than get into mega loan situation.
It has long been my contention that the price diference between an integrated course and a modular one is a large price to pay for a bit of help finding a job at the end of the trainning.
Forget all the hype about requireing to be "selected" to get on an integrated course it is all about the trainning company getting your business.
I find myself in agreement with WWW (now thats a change!) about taking a little more time and working wile doing the course part time, this way you can pay as you go with cash that is yours not the banks and this way you might only have to get a loan for the a part of the course (such as the IR).
This is the way that I went about the fATPL, the morgage got paid I only went into a little debt (£7500 in todays money) and I even managed a small holiday during all this.
Of late there has been too much of a rush to spend someone elses money my training was based largley on sound finances and a lot of long hours doing two jobs to pay for it. At the time a few of the guys at the flying club had a bit of a snigger at my slow progress but when the late 80's slump hit I was the one who did not loose the house and car
May be my attitude is a bit old fashoned but 20 years on I enjoy debt free life.
It has long been my contention that the price diference between an integrated course and a modular one is a large price to pay for a bit of help finding a job at the end of the trainning.
Forget all the hype about requireing to be "selected" to get on an integrated course it is all about the trainning company getting your business.
I find myself in agreement with WWW (now thats a change!) about taking a little more time and working wile doing the course part time, this way you can pay as you go with cash that is yours not the banks and this way you might only have to get a loan for the a part of the course (such as the IR).
This is the way that I went about the fATPL, the morgage got paid I only went into a little debt (£7500 in todays money) and I even managed a small holiday during all this.
Of late there has been too much of a rush to spend someone elses money my training was based largley on sound finances and a lot of long hours doing two jobs to pay for it. At the time a few of the guys at the flying club had a bit of a snigger at my slow progress but when the late 80's slump hit I was the one who did not loose the house and car
May be my attitude is a bit old fashoned but 20 years on I enjoy debt free life.
Thanks for the personal anecdote. Such an old fashioned attitude will be once again the height of fashion by this time next year.
WWW
WWW
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This is an interesting side effect from WWW earlier post on erinacious... where are you doing your training?? Shock horror a kock-on impact to aviation....
http://forums.flyer.co.uk/viewtopic....er=asc&start=0
http://forums.flyer.co.uk/viewtopic....er=asc&start=0
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Dubai airport announced a 15% increase in passengers during the 1st quarter of 2008 compared to 2007.
I foresee that many European pilots will be hired by the Middle-East in the next decade.
Qantas chief executive Dixon said that the airline industry will be okay.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-industry.html
I foresee that many European pilots will be hired by the Middle-East in the next decade.
Qantas chief executive Dixon said that the airline industry will be okay.
Airlines are in a better position to combat a potential down cycle than earlier in the decade, says Qantas head Geoff Dixon, who believes those companies have steadily improved their ability to handle downturns in the last six-to-eight years.
PPRuNe Handmaiden
Qantas is shifting much of their work to Jet *. Qantaslink are parking aeroplanes because of a lack of suitable pilots. Well, a lack of suitable pilots who'll work for the money offered.
The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.
Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)
My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)
If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.
NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.
The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.
Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)
My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)
If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.
NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.