Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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A thought for discussion, as I would like to know peeps opinion.
When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??
I would argue that despite these bods being attractive to airlines they may not fit the airlines demograhics. Surely new blood, content with being an FO for 7 years, will still be needed. Otherwise, in the long term, airlines may have snags on their hands when the old and bolds die or retire to the Pitts special and the senior FOs want command. Noboody is left filling the RHS with the verve, commitment and ambition of someone who will pull out all the stops and work their little cotton socks off like a newbie would.
Of course the recruitment will thin out but it won't stop. Completely. Newbies will just have to try harder, be more patient and keep the faith a little more.
The RN and the RAF both screwed up when they turned off their recruitment taps thinking they were awash with pilots, only to find out that a few years later they needed to over recruit (I know I was there!). This recruitment process always seems to go in cycles. We are obviously just coming down off a peak at the moment to a slow trickle but eventually it will come back up again.
Also have we all been keeping an eye on EASA? There are very serious proposals (likely to happen) that will prevent ex military guys (even fast jet guys, multi engine etc) simply accrediting their military experience towards an ATPL. They will have to start from scratch. This may free up some more RHS space?
The future may not be bright but I don't think we are returning to the dark ages, no matter how many crappy headlines we read.
Just my 2 pence worth for today, now back to AGK Systems Urghhhhhhh......
When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??
I would argue that despite these bods being attractive to airlines they may not fit the airlines demograhics. Surely new blood, content with being an FO for 7 years, will still be needed. Otherwise, in the long term, airlines may have snags on their hands when the old and bolds die or retire to the Pitts special and the senior FOs want command. Noboody is left filling the RHS with the verve, commitment and ambition of someone who will pull out all the stops and work their little cotton socks off like a newbie would.
Of course the recruitment will thin out but it won't stop. Completely. Newbies will just have to try harder, be more patient and keep the faith a little more.
The RN and the RAF both screwed up when they turned off their recruitment taps thinking they were awash with pilots, only to find out that a few years later they needed to over recruit (I know I was there!). This recruitment process always seems to go in cycles. We are obviously just coming down off a peak at the moment to a slow trickle but eventually it will come back up again.
Also have we all been keeping an eye on EASA? There are very serious proposals (likely to happen) that will prevent ex military guys (even fast jet guys, multi engine etc) simply accrediting their military experience towards an ATPL. They will have to start from scratch. This may free up some more RHS space?
The future may not be bright but I don't think we are returning to the dark ages, no matter how many crappy headlines we read.
Just my 2 pence worth for today, now back to AGK Systems Urghhhhhhh......
Whatever happens there will be jobs going and I am going to do my best to get one of them. The more wannabes who are so uncommitted as to be put off by the doom and gloom of people like WWW the better. 
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Surf the chaos
It would do no harm for any prospective pilot to take a very long term, objective view... and look at this business of investing stacks of money into flying as just that: An investment.
Coming straight out of uni and blowing 60-80K or whatever with no back-up plan is crazy. Far more sensible would be to attempt to run two projects or more simultaneously:
Lets face it, one could blow the cost of a new house (once prices have corrected down by 30-40%) on getting a Professional Pilots Licence and lose ones medical the next day. Unlikely, but if not this, then there could be another 9/11 type event that scuppers your prospects.
Just my opinion.
Coming straight out of uni and blowing 60-80K or whatever with no back-up plan is crazy. Far more sensible would be to attempt to run two projects or more simultaneously:
- A small business that can be expanded or scaled down as market conditions (or other projects) dictate.
- A serious stable career-type employment
- Flying training
Lets face it, one could blow the cost of a new house (once prices have corrected down by 30-40%) on getting a Professional Pilots Licence and lose ones medical the next day. Unlikely, but if not this, then there could be another 9/11 type event that scuppers your prospects.
Just my opinion.
The jury on their model is still out, and cannot be compared to Oasis and MAXjet in any way.
Apart from being a start up airline trying to undercut the legacy carriers on price whilst offering an alternative to their Business or First products. The mechanics of it are irrelevant. Whatever - a rip roaring success it does not appear to be.
When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??
In every other downturn it has. I would concede that it might be different this time. Most airlines have come up with the idea that a FO can be recruited and persuaded to pay for his own type rating either up front or via a loan and reduced salary. They are often then tied to the airline, in debt and get paid less. They can't afford to leave and they are cheap labour. It MIGHT be the case that these employees will be more attractive than experienced rated guys newly unemployed who would qualify for full rate renumeration and would have career options as soon as the industry recovered. Its a thought. Not a nice one for anyone worried that their airline might be on shaky financial ground... they might find themselves being a less attractive recruit than a cadet. We shall just have to wait and see. Which we will.
Whatever happens there will be jobs going and I am going to do my best to get one of them. The more wannabes who are so uncommitted as to be put off by the doom and gloom of people like WWW the better
Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.
Again people choose to label me Mr Doom & Gloom as if to imply its a personality trait that can be perhaps disregarded. If I'm on approach to say Barcelona and there is a wall of thunderstorms ahead. There is a CB over the field the wind is gusting to the maximum crosswind and the runway is under standing water. The night is dark and its rough as old boots. The first Alternate weather is worse than forecast and out of limits. The second alternate is filling up rapidly with diversions from Barcelona and it ain't sunny there either. My weather radar is a wall of red and magenta and the last two aircraft have gone around on approach but three got in during the last 20 minutes.
Am I Captain Doom & Gloom if I brief the pax that the approach will be rough and that a go around and diversion is a distinct possibility? Getting the cabin secure early and reviewing the fuel policy and windshear go-around with the FO is just scaremongering him right? Working out the actual below legal fuel for a distant bolt hole runway with good weather is just pointless speculation yes?
NO. In the job to which Wannabes aspire you are paid to consider the worst case, the most likely case and the inbetween AND then make a good judgement call. My posts on this topic serve merely as the weather radar, the ATIS and the Ops Manual.
They are things to be considered.
WWW
Apart from being a start up airline trying to undercut the legacy carriers on price whilst offering an alternative to their Business or First products. The mechanics of it are irrelevant. Whatever - a rip roaring success it does not appear to be.
When all these fully qualified spammed up experienced Captains and FOs hit the market when countless number of airlines hit the wall over the next 2 years does this really mean the end to newbie recruitment??
In every other downturn it has. I would concede that it might be different this time. Most airlines have come up with the idea that a FO can be recruited and persuaded to pay for his own type rating either up front or via a loan and reduced salary. They are often then tied to the airline, in debt and get paid less. They can't afford to leave and they are cheap labour. It MIGHT be the case that these employees will be more attractive than experienced rated guys newly unemployed who would qualify for full rate renumeration and would have career options as soon as the industry recovered. Its a thought. Not a nice one for anyone worried that their airline might be on shaky financial ground... they might find themselves being a less attractive recruit than a cadet. We shall just have to wait and see. Which we will.
Whatever happens there will be jobs going and I am going to do my best to get one of them. The more wannabes who are so uncommitted as to be put off by the doom and gloom of people like WWW the better
Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.
Again people choose to label me Mr Doom & Gloom as if to imply its a personality trait that can be perhaps disregarded. If I'm on approach to say Barcelona and there is a wall of thunderstorms ahead. There is a CB over the field the wind is gusting to the maximum crosswind and the runway is under standing water. The night is dark and its rough as old boots. The first Alternate weather is worse than forecast and out of limits. The second alternate is filling up rapidly with diversions from Barcelona and it ain't sunny there either. My weather radar is a wall of red and magenta and the last two aircraft have gone around on approach but three got in during the last 20 minutes.
Am I Captain Doom & Gloom if I brief the pax that the approach will be rough and that a go around and diversion is a distinct possibility? Getting the cabin secure early and reviewing the fuel policy and windshear go-around with the FO is just scaremongering him right? Working out the actual below legal fuel for a distant bolt hole runway with good weather is just pointless speculation yes?
NO. In the job to which Wannabes aspire you are paid to consider the worst case, the most likely case and the inbetween AND then make a good judgement call. My posts on this topic serve merely as the weather radar, the ATIS and the Ops Manual.
They are things to be considered.
WWW
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WWW
It would seem that your doom & gloom views are becoming confussed in your post above point 1 states that EZY are shedding Boeing and A321 aircraft more quickly and yet by point 3 you go on to say that Meanwhile EZY and RYR keep filing profits and keep growing.
These statments of yours seem to be at odds with each other, if you can't hang your doom and gloom theory together over a few paragraphs why should we put to much store by anything else you say?
The whole of my life has been plagued be the experts who have told me that I would ever amount to any more that "factorty fodder" and could come up with a thousand reasons to back up there pesimistic views of my career prospects and you appear to have the same cant do attitude.
Well it would seem that with a now as a Captain of a jet airliner, Licenced aircraft engineer and owner of a small aviation business I have rather proved the merchants of gloom and doom like yourself wrong.
Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.
These statments of yours seem to be at odds with each other, if you can't hang your doom and gloom theory together over a few paragraphs why should we put to much store by anything else you say?
The whole of my life has been plagued be the experts who have told me that I would ever amount to any more that "factorty fodder" and could come up with a thousand reasons to back up there pesimistic views of my career prospects and you appear to have the same cant do attitude.
Well it would seem that with a now as a Captain of a jet airliner, Licenced aircraft engineer and owner of a small aviation business I have rather proved the merchants of gloom and doom like yourself wrong.
Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.
Christ I hope you are never the engineer working on my aircraft if you can't understand that EZY are expanding, posting profits and plan to dispose of part of the fleet at an accelerated rate in the light of the clear economic crisis at hand. Its not exactly hard to grasp.
Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.
So if I keep a positive attitude on my hypothetical approach to Barcelona then things will be alright will they? No need to plan the contigencies then - just focus on keeping that attitude positive, perhaps I could smile a lot and pick up the paper??!
It is not very sad for me. I've got a pretty safe seat and a house price crash will work in my favour. I'm not depressed or worried. I'm trying to HELP wannabes. Don't spare a moment being sad for me - save your sympathy for those heavily in debt, at risk of losing their home and unable to find a flying job or go back to their old career.
WWW
Life is all about keeping a positive attitude but what I cant undertand is how someone like yourself who worked his way up via the GA route now has such a black view of the aviation business. It must be very sad for you to have worked so hard achived your goal only to find that things are in your view so bad.
So if I keep a positive attitude on my hypothetical approach to Barcelona then things will be alright will they? No need to plan the contigencies then - just focus on keeping that attitude positive, perhaps I could smile a lot and pick up the paper??!
It is not very sad for me. I've got a pretty safe seat and a house price crash will work in my favour. I'm not depressed or worried. I'm trying to HELP wannabes. Don't spare a moment being sad for me - save your sympathy for those heavily in debt, at risk of losing their home and unable to find a flying job or go back to their old career.
WWW
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Just seen your last post!
Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.
Sorry to tell you that I got my first airline flying job at the start of 1991, the pay was above average for a first job, but you are right about one thing I did have to go to the end of the earth to find it..................... It was Birmingham based!
Whatever happens?! What about a Depression on the scale of the 1930's? In the 1990's recession you could not get a job for love nor money in this country and many had to go to the four corners of the earth to find one at any price.
Sorry to tell you that I got my first airline flying job at the start of 1991, the pay was above average for a first job, but you are right about one thing I did have to go to the end of the earth to find it..................... It was Birmingham based!
Lovely anecdotal - thanks. Cock all use to most wannabes though as you were the exception that proved the rule.
WWW
WWW
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I don't believe that WWW has a black view on this, I would say he is just a realist.
We are heading for a recession whether people want to believe it or not, all the signs are there. Going into flight training with your eyes wide open is the the only way to move forward in the present conditions and definitely having a back up plan is the safest option. I have to admit although I don't like the thought, that hiring of pilots over the next few years is going to get more difficult, this industry is cyclical.
I would never try to disuade any wannabes from training but be prepared for a hard couple of years ahead. I for one am battering down the hatches and preparing a backup plan just incase things don't go the way I want them to
We are heading for a recession whether people want to believe it or not, all the signs are there. Going into flight training with your eyes wide open is the the only way to move forward in the present conditions and definitely having a back up plan is the safest option. I have to admit although I don't like the thought, that hiring of pilots over the next few years is going to get more difficult, this industry is cyclical.
I would never try to disuade any wannabes from training but be prepared for a hard couple of years ahead. I for one am battering down the hatches and preparing a backup plan just incase things don't go the way I want them to
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Frontier Airlines has just gone bust - still operating under C11, but for how long, who knows. 62 aircraft & hence crews potentially on the job market soon...
WWW - structure your arguments - what you mean is the GB A321s that do not fit the strategy are going, but that the A319 strategy continues, still replacing older B737s, albeit the whole company is growing at a reduced rate from the heady days of the past.
WWW - structure your arguments - what you mean is the GB A321s that do not fit the strategy are going, but that the A319 strategy continues, still replacing older B737s, albeit the whole company is growing at a reduced rate from the heady days of the past.
GB A321 which did fit the strategy last week do not this week and are going to be disposed of. The 737's are going to be pensioned off at an accelerated rate. The fleet expansion is being scaled back. Recruitment is therefore no longer required and overcrewing is likely. Structured enough for you?
Bottom line - the recruitment door just snapped shut at the UK's second largest airline.
Guess what happens next to all the small and marginal airlines..
This industry can turn on a dime. Take NO comfort from those full order books in Toulouse and Seattle.
WWW
Bottom line - the recruitment door just snapped shut at the UK's second largest airline.
Guess what happens next to all the small and marginal airlines..
This industry can turn on a dime. Take NO comfort from those full order books in Toulouse and Seattle.
WWW
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Positive attitude
I guess that for WWW the glass is alway half empty. From what I remember the people who had the most problems getting a job back in the 1990's had that sort of attitude, the problem is that it comes across at interview and puts you to the bottom of list when it comes to job offers.
I have no doubt that things are going to get tough in the aviation business and you have to ask the question who would you want to work for you, the guy who sees the glass as half empty or the guy who sees it as half full?
As for the EZY A321 issue could this not have more to do with the fact that the ex-GB aircraft have the V2500 engine and not the CFM56? This is not an issue when flying the aircraft but in maintenance terms it requires a lot more trainning and logistic support to maintain two engine types. I would think that this is the reason for EZY shedding these aircraft rather that the economic situation.
I have no doubt that things are going to get tough in the aviation business and you have to ask the question who would you want to work for you, the guy who sees the glass as half empty or the guy who sees it as half full?
As for the EZY A321 issue could this not have more to do with the fact that the ex-GB aircraft have the V2500 engine and not the CFM56? This is not an issue when flying the aircraft but in maintenance terms it requires a lot more trainning and logistic support to maintain two engine types. I would think that this is the reason for EZY shedding these aircraft rather that the economic situation.
No. The A321's were planned to be operated by EZY. The plan has changed in the last week. Belts are being tightened. Stop trying to spin it any other way - I work for the company and I know a bit more about it than you. The CEO has stated that there will be blood on the carpet and that other airlines will be going bust soon.
I cannot spell it out more clearly than that.
I don't have a half glass empty attitude, I'm not miserable and I don't think the world will end. We are going to have a 1990's recession. It probably won't hurt me much and as I've sold to rent my house at the top of the market the HPC will bring me huge gain. I'm prepared for the coming storm.
Are you?
WW
I cannot spell it out more clearly than that.
I don't have a half glass empty attitude, I'm not miserable and I don't think the world will end. We are going to have a 1990's recession. It probably won't hurt me much and as I've sold to rent my house at the top of the market the HPC will bring me huge gain. I'm prepared for the coming storm.
Are you?
WW
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This is a becoming brawn vs brains thread. WWW is putting forward a very logical evidence based argument that draws on past economic climates and current trends. Unfortunately WWW, you are fighting the masses that are reluctant to admit that things aren't rosy, and that maybe the facts do point to a recession. Some seem so busy arguing the colour of the water, they can't see that huge wave heading right this way. Arguing over the sale fo a few aircraft is completely irrelevant, we're talking about the rise and fall of the global economy!
WWW isn't saying we should all find a strong rope, he's pointing out prefectly valid observations. He is also not sensationalising or fabricating the basis for his argument, unlike some with the "think positive" idealism based on nothing more than an instinct to avoid blackening their view of the world.
That being said, where would PPRuNe be if everyone agreed
WWW isn't saying we should all find a strong rope, he's pointing out prefectly valid observations. He is also not sensationalising or fabricating the basis for his argument, unlike some with the "think positive" idealism based on nothing more than an instinct to avoid blackening their view of the world.
That being said, where would PPRuNe be if everyone agreed
Thank you Kerosine.
This is ominous for airlines who derive significant revenue from First and Business customers:
http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/b...ews/7766.cntns
More Jobs Go As Firms Tighten Their Belts
The next few weeks don't look like being a great time to be working in the finnacial markets. With the likes of Merrill Lynch and UBS Investment Bank said to be on the verge of laying off thousands more, Royal Bank of Scotland / ABN AMRO have started to wield the axe (some 200 already said to have gone in London this week, with Reuters reporting that 40 ABN roles are likely to be cut in the Nordic region soon) and staff at Bear Stearns should start to learn of their fate next week, with some being laid off as early as Friday.
Bloomberg has also now reported that Goldman Sachs is 'eliminating posts in its mortgage and investment banking units as the credit contraction saps..
The numbers are small. But they always are at the start. Its not just first time buyers and people on the economic periphery that will stop flying in the months to come.
WWW
This is ominous for airlines who derive significant revenue from First and Business customers:
http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/b...ews/7766.cntns
More Jobs Go As Firms Tighten Their Belts
The next few weeks don't look like being a great time to be working in the finnacial markets. With the likes of Merrill Lynch and UBS Investment Bank said to be on the verge of laying off thousands more, Royal Bank of Scotland / ABN AMRO have started to wield the axe (some 200 already said to have gone in London this week, with Reuters reporting that 40 ABN roles are likely to be cut in the Nordic region soon) and staff at Bear Stearns should start to learn of their fate next week, with some being laid off as early as Friday.
Bloomberg has also now reported that Goldman Sachs is 'eliminating posts in its mortgage and investment banking units as the credit contraction saps..
The numbers are small. But they always are at the start. Its not just first time buyers and people on the economic periphery that will stop flying in the months to come.
WWW
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I agree, Kerosine. I have no reason to disbelieve WWW's input; simply because it's based on sound logic regarding events now, and in the past.
I just thought I'd point out the poor analogy which I think over-simplifies something that isn't simple.
I just thought I'd point out the poor analogy which I think over-simplifies something that isn't simple.
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This 'slowdown' could make the the last one look like a rounding error. It's the end of decades of credit expansion. Debt, debt, debt, it was bound to end in tears.
The glass half-full crowd are being led by Gordon Brown & Alastair Darling which should be cause for major concern.
My employer when not losing millions on a new building has claimed that at $120/bbl oil there is no profit to be made. Might be time to sell the gold for some tinned food
.
The glass half-full crowd are being led by Gordon Brown & Alastair Darling which should be cause for major concern.
My employer when not losing millions on a new building has claimed that at $120/bbl oil there is no profit to be made. Might be time to sell the gold for some tinned food
.