Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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A & C
I don't think Nich is on here now - his last account (Nich_Av or whatever) seems to have been deleted and I think his previous one was suspended.
I will miss him as he brings a certain entertainment factor to what is otherwise a very sober topic
I don't think Nich is on here now - his last account (Nich_Av or whatever) seems to have been deleted and I think his previous one was suspended.
I will miss him as he brings a certain entertainment factor to what is otherwise a very sober topic
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WWW
The reason that the agent was so keen to knock £50 grand off the price was to get some money into his bank!
At the moment estate agents are dropping left right & centre. In the good times Any old lagg with a car, mobile phone and shop front can set up as an estate agent. These people pushed up the price of houses and are in part to blame for the high price of property.
Now comes the positive feedback they can't now sell at the inflated prices they could last year and need to sell at any price to get some money through the door.
The thing that I find most pleasing is that the good estate agents will be able to ride this out but the "wide boys" will go broke.
The bottom line is if you sell a house now you will buy another at an equily depressed price so no overall loss, if it is a roof over your head you are wanting the "value" of that roof is not much of an issue, however if you are one of the millons of Brits who see the house as some sort of investment and have borrowed far to much in the hope of making a quick buck then you are deep in the doo-doo.
At the moment estate agents are dropping left right & centre. In the good times Any old lagg with a car, mobile phone and shop front can set up as an estate agent. These people pushed up the price of houses and are in part to blame for the high price of property.
Now comes the positive feedback they can't now sell at the inflated prices they could last year and need to sell at any price to get some money through the door.
The thing that I find most pleasing is that the good estate agents will be able to ride this out but the "wide boys" will go broke.
The bottom line is if you sell a house now you will buy another at an equily depressed price so no overall loss, if it is a roof over your head you are wanting the "value" of that roof is not much of an issue, however if you are one of the millons of Brits who see the house as some sort of investment and have borrowed far to much in the hope of making a quick buck then you are deep in the doo-doo.
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Astute financial planning is essential for those wannabes who are about to embark on such training - I agree, training in the current climate is NOT impossible, however, one would seriously suggest that individuals carefully account for All costs; for example, examine surplus costs closely; examination fees, living costs, not to mention fuel and travelling costs, they all add up to a rather large sum over 12 - 15 months.....!
The following is a brief article on the importance of Oil prices...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/06/bcnservice206.xml
The following is a brief article on the importance of Oil prices...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/06/bcnservice206.xml
Last edited by Rugbyears; 10th May 2008 at 21:33.
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Hollingworth, I welcome your enthusiasm.
I'm pretty busy now so I can't waist much time arguing with 15 year old would-be economists.
It's useless to analyse today's market conditions and to deduce that it's a bad time to start training. If all of you who are "trying to warn" would have done that 2 years ago I would be applauding you... I'm on the record on another forum for predicting a strong slowdown in 2008 back in February 2007, against reports that flight schools were fuller than ever, that the industry was flourishing and that it was the best time to start...
Oil prices are rising, alright, but ever considered why?
Let's look at who's feeding and winning from these "crude is gonna hit 200 by x-mas" rumours:
Exxon profits up 17 percent:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/new...up-17-percent/
Shell profits up 12 percent:
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...LB063520080429
and a funny quote:
Rumours and false predictions by people who have influence... I've got my theories about this recession and the people who are feeding it.
Whatever this is all about, it is unimportant because people starting training today will be ready 2 years or later from now, and the recession and all associated rumours will be long gone by then. My prediction from what I know is that there will be a huge pilot shortage 2 to 5 years from now followed by another recession which will see many established European carriers go down. This is not an instinctive prediction unlike what we're used to read here and there, but the result of deep analysing.
As the young kids on this forum are very keen on bending and blowing my words and paragraphs, I'll be more precise regarding the content of the mentioned upcoming pilot shortage:
If there will be a pilot shortage, it doesn't mean that major carriers will beg 250 hour pilots to join them, far from that.
Instead it will be regional carriers, bizjet operators and other lower-paying operators who will have a hard time keeping their cockpit personnel.
First officers will "use" these operators to acquire the initial experience but better pay, better career prospects and better company stability will drive many of them towards a legacy carrier job after less than 2-3 years. Regional operators will have to raise the salary bar of captains beyond that of legacy carriers to keep their captains but also to convince some first officers to stay for an upgrade.
Farnborough will show us that the industry is hungry, very hungry. Expect several 100+ orders by Middle-East carriers, some strong orders from Asia and some surprising orders from Africa. Also, the recession is perfect timing for a huge order from Ryanair, O'Leary still has to make his promise of low-cost longhaul true and A350XWB slots are starting to fill while B787 slots are already full until at least 2017, assuming that Boeing can ramp-up production as expected and that it doesn't take longer. I assume O'Leary was waiting for the B787-1000 but that is not likely to come before 2018, if ever, so he'll have no choice but to order A350XWB or B777 if he wants to go longhaul before 2020.
One last point I'd like to mention. The B787 will start being delivered from 2010. That will bring an enormous amount of affordable used B767ER/A330's to the market, enabling many smaller carriers to grow, some others to start-up.
NO, commercial aviation will not go down in this rumour-fed recession and high oil price crisis. I do feel comfortable about that when I see oil-sheiks investing in aviation.
I'm pretty busy now so I can't waist much time arguing with 15 year old would-be economists.
It's useless to analyse today's market conditions and to deduce that it's a bad time to start training. If all of you who are "trying to warn" would have done that 2 years ago I would be applauding you... I'm on the record on another forum for predicting a strong slowdown in 2008 back in February 2007, against reports that flight schools were fuller than ever, that the industry was flourishing and that it was the best time to start...
Oil prices are rising, alright, but ever considered why?
Let's look at who's feeding and winning from these "crude is gonna hit 200 by x-mas" rumours:
Exxon profits up 17 percent:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/new...up-17-percent/
Shell profits up 12 percent:
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...LB063520080429
and a funny quote:
It said production averaged 3.52 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the first three months of the year, compared with 3.51 million boepd in the same period last year.
Analysts had predicted output would fall to 3.40 million boepd
Analysts had predicted output would fall to 3.40 million boepd
Whatever this is all about, it is unimportant because people starting training today will be ready 2 years or later from now, and the recession and all associated rumours will be long gone by then. My prediction from what I know is that there will be a huge pilot shortage 2 to 5 years from now followed by another recession which will see many established European carriers go down. This is not an instinctive prediction unlike what we're used to read here and there, but the result of deep analysing.
As the young kids on this forum are very keen on bending and blowing my words and paragraphs, I'll be more precise regarding the content of the mentioned upcoming pilot shortage:
If there will be a pilot shortage, it doesn't mean that major carriers will beg 250 hour pilots to join them, far from that.
Instead it will be regional carriers, bizjet operators and other lower-paying operators who will have a hard time keeping their cockpit personnel.
First officers will "use" these operators to acquire the initial experience but better pay, better career prospects and better company stability will drive many of them towards a legacy carrier job after less than 2-3 years. Regional operators will have to raise the salary bar of captains beyond that of legacy carriers to keep their captains but also to convince some first officers to stay for an upgrade.
Farnborough will show us that the industry is hungry, very hungry. Expect several 100+ orders by Middle-East carriers, some strong orders from Asia and some surprising orders from Africa. Also, the recession is perfect timing for a huge order from Ryanair, O'Leary still has to make his promise of low-cost longhaul true and A350XWB slots are starting to fill while B787 slots are already full until at least 2017, assuming that Boeing can ramp-up production as expected and that it doesn't take longer. I assume O'Leary was waiting for the B787-1000 but that is not likely to come before 2018, if ever, so he'll have no choice but to order A350XWB or B777 if he wants to go longhaul before 2020.
One last point I'd like to mention. The B787 will start being delivered from 2010. That will bring an enormous amount of affordable used B767ER/A330's to the market, enabling many smaller carriers to grow, some others to start-up.
NO, commercial aviation will not go down in this rumour-fed recession and high oil price crisis. I do feel comfortable about that when I see oil-sheiks investing in aviation.
Last edited by nich-av; 11th May 2008 at 00:49.
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http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/2008-05-02-01.htm
So there is still a growth, or what ?? 
The slowdown in the demand growth continues the sharp downward trend which began in December 2007 as the impact of the US credit crunch began to be felt in the airline industry.
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The UK economy grew by 0.6% last quarter.
A bbc reporter, Robert P has normally a good grasp of things...Read his blog
Worst over - or not?
* Robert Peston
* 1 May 08, 07:20 AM
Fill your boots with sub-prime, asset-backed securities.
That's the implication of the Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Report.
Actually it would not put it as starkly as that, since the Bank of England is not - as far as I am aware - authorised by the FSA to give investment advice.
But the big message of its latest Financial Stability Report is that the cost and availability of credit, on the one hand, and the price of certain investments - such as securities linked to subprime - now exaggerate the risks in the global economy, where for years they were understating them.
Some will say that the Bank is stating the obvious. But as a public statement, this represents a significant change of emphasis. For years, the Bank argued the reverse, quite correctly - and more's the pity that it was systematically ignored by the City.
Subprime lending was, during the credit market euphoria of the previous few years, the extreme case of banks ignoring the golden rule that they should never lend without checking that the relevant borrowers can repay.
But what a difference nine months make: the pendulum has swung so far that financial institutions are currently assuming that losses on subprime will be on a scale without any precedent.
The Bank of England thinks their fears are exaggerated. It now believes that the market price of subprime investment products overstates likely future losses on subprime lending by about 100 per cent.
How so?
Well, because of the collapse of trading and liquidity in that market, prices imply that losses for providers of subprime loans will eventually be $400bn. But the Bank calculates that actual losses should turn out to be less than $200bn, when all the potential defaulters have handed back their keys and their respective properties have been seized and sold.
That means anyone prepared to buy subprime now and hold it to maturity would make a mint (more than $200bn if you were to buy the lot).
It also means that banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland which have been savagely marking their subprime exposure to the depressed market price may well be writing back those charges as handsome gains, in the coming years.
As you can imagine, I urged the Bank - on behalf of us poor taxpayers - to turn itself into a public-sector prop desk or hedge fund and go massively long of CDOs, ABSs and all the rest.
And if it succeeds in knocking 15 percentage points or so off the national debt from the future subprime gains, surely no one will begrudge me my 20%, hedge-fund style cut of the spoils for suggesting the big play.
No one could accuse the Bank of England of insider trading, since it has perhaps gone beyond the call of duty to create the conditions in which banks and financial traders see sense about the real risks out there - by launching its £50bn-plus scheme to allow banks to swap unfinanceable mortgages securities for the equivalent of cash.
Oddly, the Bank doesn't wish to put its analysis to sharp commercial use. As I said, the point of its subprime calculation is to persuade banks and other financial players that they are now too fearful of the risks of lending and investing, where before they were systematically ignoring those risks.
Or, again to stress the point, if all manner of loans were too cheap and easy to obtain prior to last August - and stoked up that financial bubble for which we're all now paying - credit is now disproportionately expensive and tight.
For the Bank, this is grounds for modest optimism, in the sense that it hopes banks and controllers of huge pools of liquidity (notably the massive US money managers such as Fidelity and Legg Mason) will gradually realise they are being neurotic about the outlook and will start to lend to our banks again at longer maturities than overnight and at reasonable prices.
But the Bank acknowledges that there is a substantial residual risk of lenders not seeing sense. In which case, lenders would bring about the very thing they fear most by continuing to restrict the availability of credit - viz the collapse of over-stretched borrowers and further falls in asset prices which would generate incremental, spectacular loan losses.
The kernel of all our problems remains what it was, a chronic shortage of liquidity in the banking system. And normal conditions should at some point return. But the Bank cannot predict when that will happen nor be confident there won't be another banking or markets accident in the meantime.
Which means that if you see the Governor propping up the bar in your local hostelry, it's probably not worth asking him for an investment tip.
A bbc reporter, Robert P has normally a good grasp of things...Read his blog
Worst over - or not?
* Robert Peston
* 1 May 08, 07:20 AM
Fill your boots with sub-prime, asset-backed securities.
That's the implication of the Bank of England's latest Financial Stability Report.
Actually it would not put it as starkly as that, since the Bank of England is not - as far as I am aware - authorised by the FSA to give investment advice.
But the big message of its latest Financial Stability Report is that the cost and availability of credit, on the one hand, and the price of certain investments - such as securities linked to subprime - now exaggerate the risks in the global economy, where for years they were understating them.
Some will say that the Bank is stating the obvious. But as a public statement, this represents a significant change of emphasis. For years, the Bank argued the reverse, quite correctly - and more's the pity that it was systematically ignored by the City.
Subprime lending was, during the credit market euphoria of the previous few years, the extreme case of banks ignoring the golden rule that they should never lend without checking that the relevant borrowers can repay.
But what a difference nine months make: the pendulum has swung so far that financial institutions are currently assuming that losses on subprime will be on a scale without any precedent.
The Bank of England thinks their fears are exaggerated. It now believes that the market price of subprime investment products overstates likely future losses on subprime lending by about 100 per cent.
How so?
Well, because of the collapse of trading and liquidity in that market, prices imply that losses for providers of subprime loans will eventually be $400bn. But the Bank calculates that actual losses should turn out to be less than $200bn, when all the potential defaulters have handed back their keys and their respective properties have been seized and sold.
That means anyone prepared to buy subprime now and hold it to maturity would make a mint (more than $200bn if you were to buy the lot).
It also means that banks such as Royal Bank of Scotland which have been savagely marking their subprime exposure to the depressed market price may well be writing back those charges as handsome gains, in the coming years.
As you can imagine, I urged the Bank - on behalf of us poor taxpayers - to turn itself into a public-sector prop desk or hedge fund and go massively long of CDOs, ABSs and all the rest.
And if it succeeds in knocking 15 percentage points or so off the national debt from the future subprime gains, surely no one will begrudge me my 20%, hedge-fund style cut of the spoils for suggesting the big play.
No one could accuse the Bank of England of insider trading, since it has perhaps gone beyond the call of duty to create the conditions in which banks and financial traders see sense about the real risks out there - by launching its £50bn-plus scheme to allow banks to swap unfinanceable mortgages securities for the equivalent of cash.
Oddly, the Bank doesn't wish to put its analysis to sharp commercial use. As I said, the point of its subprime calculation is to persuade banks and other financial players that they are now too fearful of the risks of lending and investing, where before they were systematically ignoring those risks.
Or, again to stress the point, if all manner of loans were too cheap and easy to obtain prior to last August - and stoked up that financial bubble for which we're all now paying - credit is now disproportionately expensive and tight.
For the Bank, this is grounds for modest optimism, in the sense that it hopes banks and controllers of huge pools of liquidity (notably the massive US money managers such as Fidelity and Legg Mason) will gradually realise they are being neurotic about the outlook and will start to lend to our banks again at longer maturities than overnight and at reasonable prices.
But the Bank acknowledges that there is a substantial residual risk of lenders not seeing sense. In which case, lenders would bring about the very thing they fear most by continuing to restrict the availability of credit - viz the collapse of over-stretched borrowers and further falls in asset prices which would generate incremental, spectacular loan losses.
The kernel of all our problems remains what it was, a chronic shortage of liquidity in the banking system. And normal conditions should at some point return. But the Bank cannot predict when that will happen nor be confident there won't be another banking or markets accident in the meantime.
Which means that if you see the Governor propping up the bar in your local hostelry, it's probably not worth asking him for an investment tip.
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Can I sum up this whole thread??
"There may or may not be further trouble ahead for the financial and housing markets - some people fervently think there will be, others are not convinced. Anyone who is thinking of entering training now should probably be quite careful that they can financially afford to do this and should think very carefully before committing themselves to a large bank loan. Wise planning and a bit of luck should land you in the right place at the right time however, be prepared for the job market to slow down and expect a possibly protracted period of unemployment prior to finally landing that first job once your training has been completed"
Can we close it now???
"There may or may not be further trouble ahead for the financial and housing markets - some people fervently think there will be, others are not convinced. Anyone who is thinking of entering training now should probably be quite careful that they can financially afford to do this and should think very carefully before committing themselves to a large bank loan. Wise planning and a bit of luck should land you in the right place at the right time however, be prepared for the job market to slow down and expect a possibly protracted period of unemployment prior to finally landing that first job once your training has been completed"
Can we close it now???
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Rex Banner & Plastic 787,
I don’t think it’s any coincidence that you two are slating this thread, given that from your previous posts it seems you’re both in the process of taking out huge loans for flight training.
Obviously no one can be sure how things will pan out but I think it’s abundantly clear to anyone with half a brain cell that now is certainly not the time to be going into an integrated course with a £50k debt.
If you're not interested don’t bother reading the thread, it’s only going to tell you exactly what you don’t want to hear.
I don’t think it’s any coincidence that you two are slating this thread, given that from your previous posts it seems you’re both in the process of taking out huge loans for flight training.
Obviously no one can be sure how things will pan out but I think it’s abundantly clear to anyone with half a brain cell that now is certainly not the time to be going into an integrated course with a £50k debt.
If you're not interested don’t bother reading the thread, it’s only going to tell you exactly what you don’t want to hear.
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Laf nice summary. Plastic and others, clearly this thread is upsetting you so why don't you stop reading it 
Plastic i see the reason now why you are getting upset by reading some of your other posts. Dude IN MY OPINION this is the wrong time to be taking out such a massive loan.
Plastic i see the reason now why you are getting upset by reading some of your other posts. Dude IN MY OPINION this is the wrong time to be taking out such a massive loan.
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I see plastic but seriously just stop reading this thread. You do what you feel is right. I agree with your last comment but it's all about risk management, get it wrong and the conseqences can be very bad. Good luck 
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Is it not the purpose of this thread is to engage in a healthy debate, arguing the finer points of individual thought and opinion as to current financial influences in our industry? If you do not agree with a particular post or way of thinking, then it is up to you to structure a valid argument, clearly stating the reason why you disagree with a particular opinion.
Please, if you find this topic both boring as well as biased, then I foresee two options for you. First option, articulate your opinion - Second option, simply do not frequent this thread.
Please, if you find this topic both boring as well as biased, then I foresee two options for you. First option, articulate your opinion - Second option, simply do not frequent this thread.
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I found this thread boring and haven't checked it for weeks. Now that it has turned to arguments about whether or not it should even be here, it has slipped from merely boring to overwhelmingly tedious. Reaching for the face curtain now...
pot, kettle, black?
Plastic787, no need to feel sorry for me. I have the patience of a saint.
If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. And please, don't think that I'm telling you what to do. All I can say is listening to people state random facts like "This is fast becoming by far the most boring (not to mentioned biased either way) and therefore unreadable thread on pprune." is dull and unnecessary. I don't think that the most subscribed to thread in the Wannabes PPT Forum can be considered boring. Hopefully many others will agree with me when I say you clearly have nothing to offer this thread. Why bother to continue adding to it?
Good luck with your training. I'm sure you'll do great.
S88
If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. And please, don't think that I'm telling you what to do. All I can say is listening to people state random facts like "This is fast becoming by far the most boring (not to mentioned biased either way) and therefore unreadable thread on pprune." is dull and unnecessary. I don't think that the most subscribed to thread in the Wannabes PPT Forum can be considered boring. Hopefully many others will agree with me when I say you clearly have nothing to offer this thread. Why bother to continue adding to it?
Good luck with your training. I'm sure you'll do great.
S88
Last edited by student88; 11th May 2008 at 16:11. Reason: Freddie Star ate my Hamster
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I think the thread serves it's purpose well. It will not stop those who are determined to start training (nor should it in my opinion) but many, including myself will take the advice seriously.
I, for example, have changed my plans slightly, involving taking an FI rating directly after my CPL and waiting with my IR, that way if it all goes belly up, I can continue my current job and instruct part time until the worst blows over.
I was never going to, at the age of 33, blow 50K on an integrated course. so modular or integrated was never an issue for me but I can see the logic in starting ground school via DL and continuing working and saving, rather than going into serious debt with an integrated. I think this is the most pertinent point that had been raised by WWW and others.
It don't think it's a a case of people foretelling the future, rather of people in the industry advising wannabes to tread with caution just now, and maybe adjust their training plans accordingly.
Regards D-G
I, for example, have changed my plans slightly, involving taking an FI rating directly after my CPL and waiting with my IR, that way if it all goes belly up, I can continue my current job and instruct part time until the worst blows over.
I was never going to, at the age of 33, blow 50K on an integrated course. so modular or integrated was never an issue for me but I can see the logic in starting ground school via DL and continuing working and saving, rather than going into serious debt with an integrated. I think this is the most pertinent point that had been raised by WWW and others.
It don't think it's a a case of people foretelling the future, rather of people in the industry advising wannabes to tread with caution just now, and maybe adjust their training plans accordingly.
Regards D-G
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This is a good thread. It is always good to discuss future with other people before you commit to spending £60k on integrated versus £35k on modular training.
Employees in some flight schools read these threads a lot during their non-flying time and always try to belittle anyone who says anything other than "Its never been a better time to become a professional pilot.
Market is buoyant and is predicted to stay strong for next ten years."
I have six mates who completed pilot training. One is flying for FlyBe and was happy to accept £30k paycut (he was IT manager before in one of the UK airlines).
One paid for Ryanair scheme and is close to becoming FO. Four others are shop assistants and have been for last few years despite the buoyant market.
Point of the story. It is a gamble so make sure you have backup profession.
Employees in some flight schools read these threads a lot during their non-flying time and always try to belittle anyone who says anything other than "Its never been a better time to become a professional pilot.
Market is buoyant and is predicted to stay strong for next ten years." I have six mates who completed pilot training. One is flying for FlyBe and was happy to accept £30k paycut (he was IT manager before in one of the UK airlines).
One paid for Ryanair scheme and is close to becoming FO. Four others are shop assistants and have been for last few years despite the buoyant market.
Point of the story. It is a gamble so make sure you have backup profession.
Last edited by john.o.pilot; 11th May 2008 at 20:52.
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Who will you instruct if this thread serves it's purpose?
I have my concerns about the decreasing number of youngsters engaging into a cockpit career. Look at flight schools today, you rarely see 18-22 year old students... most are over 25. The interest is clearly not there anymore.
This in an industry growing at 5% per year... (well a bit less these few months). Luckily, industry consolidation has limited the impact of pilot shortage until now and a few years to come.
But should we be concerned?
I'm sure that once we' re in the middle of the upcoming pilot shortage, and that all the media starts talking about it, people will queue up at flight schools to start training...by the time these people get their CPL IR ME, the next round of recessions will hit, leading to overcapacity.
Saturation stimulates shortage, which in turn stimulates saturation.
This thread is interesting to have an idea where the actual industry stands for people who already have their CPL IR ME, but gives no clue as to whether people starting now will find a job easily 2 years from now.
Taking huge loans to pay expensive schools while some schools give you the possibility to get the same for half the price? Recession or not, it's mad... but the people making such decisions have their reasons, and it's not a single thread on a single website that will change people's mind.
You got to love FTO marketing:
I just read somewhere: "98% of our school's commercial pilot program graduates have found an airline job".
Can you find the irony in this advertisement?
Employees in some flight schools read these threads a lot during their non-flying time and always try to belittle anyone who says anyhting other than "Its never been a better time to become a professional pilot.
There will commonly be a pilot shortage in any 5 year timeframe. the question is only: how long will it take for a graduate to find a job? It can not be predicted accurately by anyone, unfortunately: starting in the middle of a pilot shortage does not necessarily mean that one would graduate in the middle of it, since training lasts 2 years on average...
Best solution?
Find a job and go modular with a local FTO. After graduation keep the job while sending applications and hour builing/instructing.
Starting today or starting tomorrow, next week or in 5 years, is not going to change you odds by much anyway. The sooner you start, the sooner you'll find a RHS job.
Last edited by nich-av; 11th May 2008 at 18:49.
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adios
like I said, I doubt anyone will stop training because of a thread on pprune. But if there are not even part time instructor jobs I will continue my present job without the need for an expensive IR renewal and I'll be ready when the worst is by.
Personally I don't think it will be as bad as some think. but who knows, which is why I am being just slightly more cautious than I was just a few months back!
Personally I don't think it will be as bad as some think. but who knows, which is why I am being just slightly more cautious than I was just a few months back!
