Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Hmm, an MP saying soothing things about the economy- that's me sold then. The Government versions don't want to be held accountable for the massive asset price bubble they have let inflate over the last decade. Their deregulation of lending gave us a 280% rise in house prices, fueled a feel-good factor that allowed three Labour terms for the first time ever. As that bubble now bursts the Opposition MP's cannot crow too much as nobody wants to vote for a public sector employee jumping up and down telling people that financial ruin lied ahead for them.
I seem to recall stating my belief that UK house prices would collapse in the summer last year. Most said no way. Well now mortgage approvals for house purchase were down by nearly 50% year-on-year in March. The British Bankers’ Association said that the number (35,417) was the lowest since it started records in 1997. Think about that for a minute. Half as many people arranged a mortgage. That means half as many houses were sold (not many do so without a mortgage). Or to put it another way, demand has fallen in half.
You don't need to have studied much economics to know what happens to prices when demand fall in half.
And so it has come to pass.
A great many people in the UK live well beyond their means based on easy credit and house price inflation. With both of these now gone they will default on their debts (the banks needing bailouts) and they will also rapidly draw in their spending horns. This will hit the airlines.
Look how low the savings ratios are in the UK these days, much much worse than the last recession, many people have NO safety net, nothing for a rainy day, no nest egg, no contingency, nothing:
I don't believe they will be able to fiddle the figures enough to avoid a technical recession. Even if they did it won't matter. Rising costs and lowering confidence are already facts that will guarantee lower loads and lower yields.
There won't be a massive crisis in Wannabeism until and unless an AOC airline goes under and makes its pilots redundant. Then its game over overnight.
WWW
I seem to recall stating my belief that UK house prices would collapse in the summer last year. Most said no way. Well now mortgage approvals for house purchase were down by nearly 50% year-on-year in March. The British Bankers’ Association said that the number (35,417) was the lowest since it started records in 1997. Think about that for a minute. Half as many people arranged a mortgage. That means half as many houses were sold (not many do so without a mortgage). Or to put it another way, demand has fallen in half.
You don't need to have studied much economics to know what happens to prices when demand fall in half.
And so it has come to pass.
A great many people in the UK live well beyond their means based on easy credit and house price inflation. With both of these now gone they will default on their debts (the banks needing bailouts) and they will also rapidly draw in their spending horns. This will hit the airlines.
Look how low the savings ratios are in the UK these days, much much worse than the last recession, many people have NO safety net, nothing for a rainy day, no nest egg, no contingency, nothing:
I don't believe they will be able to fiddle the figures enough to avoid a technical recession. Even if they did it won't matter. Rising costs and lowering confidence are already facts that will guarantee lower loads and lower yields.
There won't be a massive crisis in Wannabeism until and unless an AOC airline goes under and makes its pilots redundant. Then its game over overnight.
WWW
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Doom and Gloom
Unemplyment falling
Interest rates no where near 15% as they were is the last recesion (90s)
Inflation in target
House prices rising in some areas (Scotland) falling in others (Wales) flat in most places
People queuing up in droves to have their cars HAND WASHED at the weekend - that's no recession!
Anyway all this doom and gloom sells papers; one real issue is that its been so cold in recent weeks that the BBC have had to shelve their global warming stories and have had focus on the economy (doom and gloom stories)
"Its been a turbulent day on the exchanges and we have been forced to leave the ERM" (interest rates at 15% thats a real recession) - this is chicken feed
Interest rates no where near 15% as they were is the last recesion (90s)
Inflation in target
House prices rising in some areas (Scotland) falling in others (Wales) flat in most places
People queuing up in droves to have their cars HAND WASHED at the weekend - that's no recession!
Anyway all this doom and gloom sells papers; one real issue is that its been so cold in recent weeks that the BBC have had to shelve their global warming stories and have had focus on the economy (doom and gloom stories)
"Its been a turbulent day on the exchanges and we have been forced to leave the ERM" (interest rates at 15% thats a real recession) - this is chicken feed
However the increase in the price of fuel is very real and is hurting every airline particularly those operating older less fuel efficient machines.
Reducing Plog Fuel , Lower Flap settings for Landings , Single Engine Taxi after landings , all Sop's bought into my Airline recently to save on the Fuel Bill .
The article in the Times is pretty spot on.
ps i fly with WWW , he lets me have first choice on the crew meals , laughs at my jokes and i get a free economics lesson
Reducing Plog Fuel , Lower Flap settings for Landings , Single Engine Taxi after landings , all Sop's bought into my Airline recently to save on the Fuel Bill .
The article in the Times is pretty spot on.
ps i fly with WWW , he lets me have first choice on the crew meals , laughs at my jokes and i get a free economics lesson
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Good article from Grass Strip Basher, sums it up nicely.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3810477.ece
Again a lot of reason to take a very conservative approach to flight training, and also a lot of reason to take the "90% of our students get a job within 6 months" story's with a pinch of salt. This seems to be a thing of the past.
Also my compliments to the 'mainstream media'. Every person embarking training now can be blamed themselves for not having done enough research before their training, if it does turn out to be a mess.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3810477.ece
Again a lot of reason to take a very conservative approach to flight training, and also a lot of reason to take the "90% of our students get a job within 6 months" story's with a pinch of salt. This seems to be a thing of the past.
Also my compliments to the 'mainstream media'. Every person embarking training now can be blamed themselves for not having done enough research before their training, if it does turn out to be a mess.
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I think one thing that isn't mentioned enough in this thread is that flight training is a completely suicidal idea anyway.
Excuse my lack of experience but from what I can see from my training path is that even if times were as good as a few years back I am still spending around £30,000 to become a PPL instructor, maybe earning £10,000 - £11,000 a year! On top of that, because my ATPL will expire without an IR I am pretty much forced after 3 years to spend another £10,000 to get one, then add an MCC which on completion means I can then wait up to a year to get another low paid job, if my training hasn't expired by then.
The point I am trying to make is that anybody spending 50,000 just so they can start sending out the odd CV in the hope of a airline job is nuts, especially if they are taking out huge loans to do so. We know it and anyone we tell our plans too knows it, but we do it anyway! So regardless how bad things get and how much doom and gloom is forecast, I can be sure that myself and everyone else learning on here is going to carry on anyway, because we were all absolutely mad in the first place and a bit of common financial sense isn't going to stop us now.
Excuse my lack of experience but from what I can see from my training path is that even if times were as good as a few years back I am still spending around £30,000 to become a PPL instructor, maybe earning £10,000 - £11,000 a year! On top of that, because my ATPL will expire without an IR I am pretty much forced after 3 years to spend another £10,000 to get one, then add an MCC which on completion means I can then wait up to a year to get another low paid job, if my training hasn't expired by then.
The point I am trying to make is that anybody spending 50,000 just so they can start sending out the odd CV in the hope of a airline job is nuts, especially if they are taking out huge loans to do so. We know it and anyone we tell our plans too knows it, but we do it anyway! So regardless how bad things get and how much doom and gloom is forecast, I can be sure that myself and everyone else learning on here is going to carry on anyway, because we were all absolutely mad in the first place and a bit of common financial sense isn't going to stop us now.
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Dont worry!! I have it on good faith that all will be fine in the coming year (and for the next few years at that!).
Spend your precious pounds on flying because I'm soon to reveal a hidden oilfield that has 50 trillion barrels of that lovely black, silky, delicious wannabe loving liquid! So its on Mars, who cares!!
Haha, today we laugh, tomorrow we fly!!
Spend your precious pounds on flying because I'm soon to reveal a hidden oilfield that has 50 trillion barrels of that lovely black, silky, delicious wannabe loving liquid! So its on Mars, who cares!!
Haha, today we laugh, tomorrow we fly!!
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www.rbs.com/content/economic/downloads/world/pitfalls.pdf
Crude is over valued about $30 is speculation and not driven by fundamentals.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/
Global marco analysis - very good site written by one of the worlds top economists.
I agree that you shouldn’t listen to financial journalists as they generally know nothing, but when you have top economists and top hedge fund managers talking doom and gloom backed up by market figures then i tend to listen ..
I guess we only have to wait 6-12 months and we can see who's been right about the situation.. :-)
I personally will be sending gloating PM's to everyone who's posted the typical arrogant PPRUNE comments ;-)
Crude is over valued about $30 is speculation and not driven by fundamentals.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/
Global marco analysis - very good site written by one of the worlds top economists.
I agree that you shouldn’t listen to financial journalists as they generally know nothing, but when you have top economists and top hedge fund managers talking doom and gloom backed up by market figures then i tend to listen ..
I guess we only have to wait 6-12 months and we can see who's been right about the situation.. :-)
I personally will be sending gloating PM's to everyone who's posted the typical arrogant PPRUNE comments ;-)
PPRuNe Handmaiden
Grassy,
Winter and early Spring was a mixed bag. Some days very busy, other days, not so. What probably effected the flying rate was the early Easter and school holidays. I believe it is a bit below expected rates but it is still more than last year.
May should be busy, Cannes Film Festival, Monaco Grand Prix and the soccer championships.
Summer is typically busier than Winter.
Still flying people for day shopping trips.
Looking to hire probably about 100 pilots this year. (Don't know if that includes cadets)
Remember, there's no recession if you're in a job (and don't have crippling debt).
Winter and early Spring was a mixed bag. Some days very busy, other days, not so. What probably effected the flying rate was the early Easter and school holidays. I believe it is a bit below expected rates but it is still more than last year.
May should be busy, Cannes Film Festival, Monaco Grand Prix and the soccer championships.
Summer is typically busier than Winter.
Still flying people for day shopping trips.
Looking to hire probably about 100 pilots this year. (Don't know if that includes cadets)
Remember, there's no recession if you're in a job (and don't have crippling debt).
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Just because you don't like the sound of something doesn't mean it is wrong.
It doesn't help that easy access to credit encourages people to spend money, and money they haven't and wouldn't normally have access to. People are far more likely to spend £50k if they do not have to work, scrimp or make sacrifices for it. Maybe, paying it back after you have spent/enjoyed it is far easier to do. You cannot truly appreciate money or the value of it in this current culture.
How can anyone expect the majority of people in their teens/twenties to understand what £50k really is if their parents have given it to them (from equity), or a bank has loaned it to them rather than working and earning it for themselves?
Noone saves anymore, everything is needed now. This is everywhere is society and it is going to go tits up, even if only because enough people are thinking it and therefore tightening their belts. It needs a correction because it fundamentally doesn't make any sense.
I am not an economist, but I own a (fairly) successful business unrelated to aviation. We are fairly well insulated against a downturn but we are being more selective with our spending and this is being replicated in hundreds of thousands of businesses around the UK. Plus, I have recently been looking at houses as I was considering moving, but I have held off because I don't want to buy something to find that it loses £200k of its value over the next 12 months. This wasn't a consideration in a rising market and 12 months ago I would have moved. This type behaviour has an effect elsewhere in the economy.
As usual it is easier to knock people who put a huge amount of time into helping others on this site. WWW may be a bit short
(I did meet him once at the first Wannabes thingy near Gatwick) but I have always had a lot of time for him and he tells it as he sees it and I don't believe he has anything other than good intentions. In my limited experience, this can't be said about many people in life.
If you are desperate to do flight training, why not do it piecemeal rather than all at once? It has to be the sensible way to do it. It sounds great "learning to fly for a year" but there are massive consequences not least having to pay back a frightening amount of money once the course is over. In the currrent climate it just doesn't stack up to me. Take your advice from the right sources and those are normally the ones who have been there and done it. This is why I have never listened to any sex education from a priest.
Anyway, just another opinion to be ignored from an old before his time 36 yr old
It doesn't help that easy access to credit encourages people to spend money, and money they haven't and wouldn't normally have access to. People are far more likely to spend £50k if they do not have to work, scrimp or make sacrifices for it. Maybe, paying it back after you have spent/enjoyed it is far easier to do. You cannot truly appreciate money or the value of it in this current culture.
How can anyone expect the majority of people in their teens/twenties to understand what £50k really is if their parents have given it to them (from equity), or a bank has loaned it to them rather than working and earning it for themselves?
Noone saves anymore, everything is needed now. This is everywhere is society and it is going to go tits up, even if only because enough people are thinking it and therefore tightening their belts. It needs a correction because it fundamentally doesn't make any sense.
I am not an economist, but I own a (fairly) successful business unrelated to aviation. We are fairly well insulated against a downturn but we are being more selective with our spending and this is being replicated in hundreds of thousands of businesses around the UK. Plus, I have recently been looking at houses as I was considering moving, but I have held off because I don't want to buy something to find that it loses £200k of its value over the next 12 months. This wasn't a consideration in a rising market and 12 months ago I would have moved. This type behaviour has an effect elsewhere in the economy.
As usual it is easier to knock people who put a huge amount of time into helping others on this site. WWW may be a bit short
(I did meet him once at the first Wannabes thingy near Gatwick) but I have always had a lot of time for him and he tells it as he sees it and I don't believe he has anything other than good intentions. In my limited experience, this can't be said about many people in life.If you are desperate to do flight training, why not do it piecemeal rather than all at once? It has to be the sensible way to do it. It sounds great "learning to fly for a year" but there are massive consequences not least having to pay back a frightening amount of money once the course is over. In the currrent climate it just doesn't stack up to me. Take your advice from the right sources and those are normally the ones who have been there and done it. This is why I have never listened to any sex education from a priest.
Anyway, just another opinion to be ignored from an old before his time 36 yr old
A & C weren't you disparaging listening to financial journalists just some hours ago? To quote you:
As we all know the standard of reporting in the papers on aviation matters is appauling[sic] so why should the standard of reporting on financial issues be any different ?
Time to get some opinion from another sorce[sic]?............ I think so!!
But if you want to trade headlines from tomorrows press I'll counter with The Telegraph:
UK house prices will fall almost 20pc in next two years
By Angela Monaghan
Last Updated: 11:34am BST 25/04/2008 http://tinyurl.com/693xge
UK house prices will fall by almost 20pc over the next two years, according to analysts at Capital Economics. The economics consultancy has slashed its forecasts for UK prices and now expects them to fall 8pc this year and 10pc in 2009, down from its original expectation of a 5pc fall in 2008...
If there is one graph I could ask you all to spend just 30 seconds looking at and considering it would be this one:
You see clearly here that the sequence of events is thus. A big increase in the ratio of earnings to house prices. Then there is a correction. This correction brings on a recession. The steepness of the rise in house price to earnings ratios roughly correlates with the length of the recession.
Now look where we are today. The average house price is at 7 times average earnings (much higher than the USA and anywhere else). House prices have fallen for 6 months in a row (and are accelerating). What bit comes next based on the graph above? Starts with an R.
I'm trying to paint with a slightly broader brush in this debate. There's not a great deal of point in getting hung up on this months stock rally/slump or this weeks job losses/gains etc etc. But Wannabes need to be able to stand back and survey the horizon.
I believe firmly that this time will be no different to the last times and that the last times are clearly illustrated in the graph above.
If this is true then Wannabes need to carefully plan in order to prosper. Which is what we all want at the end of the day..
WWW
As we all know the standard of reporting in the papers on aviation matters is appauling[sic] so why should the standard of reporting on financial issues be any different ?
Time to get some opinion from another sorce[sic]?............ I think so!!
But if you want to trade headlines from tomorrows press I'll counter with The Telegraph:
UK house prices will fall almost 20pc in next two years
By Angela Monaghan
Last Updated: 11:34am BST 25/04/2008 http://tinyurl.com/693xge
UK house prices will fall by almost 20pc over the next two years, according to analysts at Capital Economics. The economics consultancy has slashed its forecasts for UK prices and now expects them to fall 8pc this year and 10pc in 2009, down from its original expectation of a 5pc fall in 2008...
If there is one graph I could ask you all to spend just 30 seconds looking at and considering it would be this one:
You see clearly here that the sequence of events is thus. A big increase in the ratio of earnings to house prices. Then there is a correction. This correction brings on a recession. The steepness of the rise in house price to earnings ratios roughly correlates with the length of the recession.
Now look where we are today. The average house price is at 7 times average earnings (much higher than the USA and anywhere else). House prices have fallen for 6 months in a row (and are accelerating). What bit comes next based on the graph above? Starts with an R.
I'm trying to paint with a slightly broader brush in this debate. There's not a great deal of point in getting hung up on this months stock rally/slump or this weeks job losses/gains etc etc. But Wannabes need to be able to stand back and survey the horizon.
I believe firmly that this time will be no different to the last times and that the last times are clearly illustrated in the graph above.
If this is true then Wannabes need to carefully plan in order to prosper. Which is what we all want at the end of the day..
WWW
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The FT headline is just the opinion of the guy who wrote it (just as I noted the statments by an MP are his) but if it was left to you none of this fact would have been made this thread.
The FT says a 10% drop in house prices so one more time you take the blackest report.
All you seem to want to post is graphs that start at the top left and end at the bottom right.
We all know that the economy is slowing but a bit of balance is needed to show that it is all not as black as you paint it or as bright as Nick-Av sees it.
I,m just sitting some place in the middle living my no credit life and trying to keep balanced view of things.
The FT says a 10% drop in house prices so one more time you take the blackest report.
All you seem to want to post is graphs that start at the top left and end at the bottom right.
We all know that the economy is slowing but a bit of balance is needed to show that it is all not as black as you paint it or as bright as Nick-Av sees it.
I,m just sitting some place in the middle living my no credit life and trying to keep balanced view of things.
Having a balanced view is precisely the point. On the one hand you have the entire flight training industry, the government and the house price industry all pumping out a relentlessly upbeat spin. I'm sure you're old enough and ugly enough to come to a balanced view but this site is used by an awful lot of younger Wannabes. For them to get some balance they need to consider the risks, the evidence of risk and the possible outcomes of risk. Which is what this thread does and which is fairly unique.
I've posted one graph showing personal savings rates that went from top left to bottom right. And another that doesn't do that but which illustrates a really important lesson from history which informs us in the present going into the future.
You seem resentful of this. I don't know why.
I'll put the bear argument - you and others put the bull. I won't censor you or be offended.
This is early 1990 though.
WWW
I've posted one graph showing personal savings rates that went from top left to bottom right. And another that doesn't do that but which illustrates a really important lesson from history which informs us in the present going into the future.
You seem resentful of this. I don't know why.
I'll put the bear argument - you and others put the bull. I won't censor you or be offended.
This is early 1990 though.
WWW
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So you're an eighteen year old wannabe, just finishing A levels. You've got no life experience but good exam grades, and you want to be an airline pilot. Researching the industry, you read the flying magazines - particularly articles on how to become a commercial pilot. And what will the advice be? "There's never been a better time to train", "retirement bulge", "growth in Asia", "pilot shortage" etc etc. By an amazing coincidence, the magazines' back pages are chock full of flying school adverts, inviting you to get into massive debt to follow your dream. Phone any of the schools for 'advice' and you'll get the same message; "pilot shortage", "90% of our graduates get jobs within six months" etc etc.
What no-one tells you is that when this industry hits a downturn, as it does every 7-10 years or so, there are virtually no jobs for newly qualified pilots, nor will there be for a couple of years. Some airlines will go bust, flooding the job market with experienced pilots. As a newbie, you'll be lucky to find a job instructing - never mind flying a 737. And - unless you have extremely rich parents - you'll be trying to service a massive debt and struggling to stay current. It's not a nice situation, and it has happened before - most recently in 2001, and 1990 before that.
But as a youngster you won't know any of this. Chances are you'll be a little bit green and trusting, and when flying schools tell you what you want to hear, you're likely to believe them.
That's why WWW's message is so important. People need to understand what they're getting into, and the implications if it all goes wrong. Personally I don't believe the prospects are quite as bad as WWW thinks, but the potential is certainly there for the aviation industry to catch a cold.
Wannabes - particularly those whose memories don't stretch back to the last downturn - need to carefully consider their 'plan B'. Unpalatable as it is, they need to hear a bit of pessimism, because they sure as hell won't hear it from the flight training industry.
What no-one tells you is that when this industry hits a downturn, as it does every 7-10 years or so, there are virtually no jobs for newly qualified pilots, nor will there be for a couple of years. Some airlines will go bust, flooding the job market with experienced pilots. As a newbie, you'll be lucky to find a job instructing - never mind flying a 737. And - unless you have extremely rich parents - you'll be trying to service a massive debt and struggling to stay current. It's not a nice situation, and it has happened before - most recently in 2001, and 1990 before that.
But as a youngster you won't know any of this. Chances are you'll be a little bit green and trusting, and when flying schools tell you what you want to hear, you're likely to believe them.
That's why WWW's message is so important. People need to understand what they're getting into, and the implications if it all goes wrong. Personally I don't believe the prospects are quite as bad as WWW thinks, but the potential is certainly there for the aviation industry to catch a cold.
Wannabes - particularly those whose memories don't stretch back to the last downturn - need to carefully consider their 'plan B'. Unpalatable as it is, they need to hear a bit of pessimism, because they sure as hell won't hear it from the flight training industry.
Last edited by G SXTY; 26th Apr 2008 at 18:26.
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G SXTY
Amongst the general speculative press cutting's, G SXTY adds a post that is worth reading to a Wannabe! The message here is correct and spot on.
That and redsnail's
...the two go hand in hand...
I got made redundant in the 90's from 2 charter airlines no-longer in business (they won't be forgotten though, best times ever). I slowley trained for an ATPL in 2001 to 2003, very nervously I might add...and here I am, possibly under threat from redundancy in 2008...the point is i'll still be here in 7 to 10 years time still loving taking a Boeing into the skies, day or night. I am just one of thousands who have been in the UK industry for more than 15 years - the world keeps turning and we just keep living and earning...it sort's itself out! Always has, always will...
To Every Wannabe; Welcome to Aviation, this is now your life, get used to it!
An injection of Glass Half Full...how can it not be any other way, we are paid to fly...
Amongst the general speculative press cutting's, G SXTY adds a post that is worth reading to a Wannabe! The message here is correct and spot on.
That and redsnail's
Remember, there's no recession if you're in a job (and don't have crippling debt).
I got made redundant in the 90's from 2 charter airlines no-longer in business (they won't be forgotten though, best times ever). I slowley trained for an ATPL in 2001 to 2003, very nervously I might add...and here I am, possibly under threat from redundancy in 2008...the point is i'll still be here in 7 to 10 years time still loving taking a Boeing into the skies, day or night. I am just one of thousands who have been in the UK industry for more than 15 years - the world keeps turning and we just keep living and earning...it sort's itself out! Always has, always will...
To Every Wannabe; Welcome to Aviation, this is now your life, get used to it!
An injection of Glass Half Full...how can it not be any other way, we are paid to fly...
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WWW
If I may pick your brains? Why is it that big companies always try and maximise profits and squueze every penny out of you until something gives, and we go into a recession. ie a boom and bust economy cycling every seven years or so.
Would it not be better for banks and other big companies to plan for a more moderate sustained growth that could continue for years and avoid the bust.
I suppose human nature and greed makes us want the big bucks now, but a slower more sustained expansion may avoid the "bust" and over time would probably even itself out.
I,m probably talking rubbish but its just an idea I had.
If I may pick your brains? Why is it that big companies always try and maximise profits and squueze every penny out of you until something gives, and we go into a recession. ie a boom and bust economy cycling every seven years or so.
Would it not be better for banks and other big companies to plan for a more moderate sustained growth that could continue for years and avoid the bust.
I suppose human nature and greed makes us want the big bucks now, but a slower more sustained expansion may avoid the "bust" and over time would probably even itself out.
I,m probably talking rubbish but its just an idea I had.