Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
WWW, I couldn't agree more to what you've just said over the last few pages. Some people don't realise that just because it worked out good for them it doesn't mean that it'll work out just as well for everyone else. Yes, it's good to have a positive mental attitude but it wont save you from hitting the ground at 100 miles an hour when you've just realised you've jumped out the aircraft without your parachute. (please don't correct me on the terminal v speed of a human falling to earth)
S88
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S88
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hmmm
Ok.....so my earlier post about the downturn potentially not affecting Australia may have been a bit premature...
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-23349,00.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...-23349,00.html
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Interesting thread... WWW makes sensible observations and I think we should all look at the situation without hysteria or emotion. Plan now to save a lot of pain in the future months.
For me, I have been considering the option of doing the CPL then doing an FI course and working with the aim of staying current and building experience.
This would mean delaying the IR to save the potential revalidation costs in 12m assuming recuitment will slow to a crawl by the end of the summer. I am modular and have no debt.
I just can't decide if this is a good bet or just push on with the IR & MCC and see what the market is like come Sept / Oct - any opinions or advice welcome!
For me, I have been considering the option of doing the CPL then doing an FI course and working with the aim of staying current and building experience.
This would mean delaying the IR to save the potential revalidation costs in 12m assuming recuitment will slow to a crawl by the end of the summer. I am modular and have no debt.
I just can't decide if this is a good bet or just push on with the IR & MCC and see what the market is like come Sept / Oct - any opinions or advice welcome!
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Wodka,
I have decided to do CPL and FI whilst holding off the IR for approx 12 months.
My concern now though is that there will be less interest in the GA sector with less bods having the money to learn to fly and poss a reduction in the requirement for FIs. Fortunately I am only on a career break from the RN and can pick up the phone and scream "I'm a Naval Officer get me outta here!" anytime.
I will pop out the system with the FI in Oct/Nov time - also not ideal!! Ahh Well, life would be dull if we just kept the status quo year in year out.
Ground School is killing me. 320 P of F questions practised on the BGS QB today. Arrrrgghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Oh and BTW I am 32 so time is also not on my side. Hey Ho.
MFWF
I have decided to do CPL and FI whilst holding off the IR for approx 12 months.
My concern now though is that there will be less interest in the GA sector with less bods having the money to learn to fly and poss a reduction in the requirement for FIs. Fortunately I am only on a career break from the RN and can pick up the phone and scream "I'm a Naval Officer get me outta here!" anytime.
I will pop out the system with the FI in Oct/Nov time - also not ideal!! Ahh Well, life would be dull if we just kept the status quo year in year out.
Ground School is killing me. 320 P of F questions practised on the BGS QB today. Arrrrgghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Oh and BTW I am 32 so time is also not on my side. Hey Ho.
MFWF
You sound fairly well positioned compared to many. I'm sure it'll work out fine and these days 32 is young. The days when airlines were striving to find recruits that would stay with them for 30 years are gone. If they get the bonded time plus a couple of years out of you then they'll be happy with that.
WWW
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If you really want to enter into this game (the flying one that is) then please please please choose a low risk strategy. Don't go out and take on any significant debt that you can't service comfortably. Stick to the day job and chip away at the study and position yourself nicely for when the times get good again in the next few years.
If you want further evidence of a impending downturn, just today FR have announced that they are going to be grounding 20 a/c for the winter. Sure they will continue to take on 250hr wannabes BUT that is for the sole reason that you are a source of profit to them. Once you are line trained and on your Brookfield contract then don't be surprised if the phone doesn't ring and there isn't a roster for you to fly. If you have large debts and no fallback plan then you will be screwed when the work dries up. And that assumes that you get a flying job in the first place! Tread carefully.
If you want further evidence of a impending downturn, just today FR have announced that they are going to be grounding 20 a/c for the winter. Sure they will continue to take on 250hr wannabes BUT that is for the sole reason that you are a source of profit to them. Once you are line trained and on your Brookfield contract then don't be surprised if the phone doesn't ring and there isn't a roster for you to fly. If you have large debts and no fallback plan then you will be screwed when the work dries up. And that assumes that you get a flying job in the first place! Tread carefully.
Christ on a bike! 20 a/c over the winter? Wasn't it 9 last winter?
This whole thing about taking on SSTR cadets when there is no flying for them to do really is starting to stink (if its the case).
WWW
This whole thing about taking on SSTR cadets when there is no flying for them to do really is starting to stink (if its the case).
WWW
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Jesus that is a HUGE number of aircraft to be sitting around all winter... at the rough 6 crews per a/c thats 120 FO's and 120 CP's effectively off roster.
This could actually play into Ryanair's hands as their annual productivity over the rolling 12m period will plummet if they spread the work around the whole pilot base (assuming no redundancies) ... meaning they could stop recruitment knowing they can hammer there existing pilots over the summer.
If... as said they continue to recruit during this period, the only reason I could see possible for this would be the introduction of more a/c in the summer alongside the restored grounded a/c meaning that crews were required to be in place and trained before the new aircraft arrived.
This could actually play into Ryanair's hands as their annual productivity over the rolling 12m period will plummet if they spread the work around the whole pilot base (assuming no redundancies) ... meaning they could stop recruitment knowing they can hammer there existing pilots over the summer.
If... as said they continue to recruit during this period, the only reason I could see possible for this would be the introduction of more a/c in the summer alongside the restored grounded a/c meaning that crews were required to be in place and trained before the new aircraft arrived.
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I agree with WWW, everyone should start thinking about stopping training.
You are right, even Ryanair is grounding their aircraft for the winter.
Anyway you forgot to mention that Aer Lingus ordered 12 aircraft: http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...0_a330300.html
Airlines come and airlines go.
Why would Ryanair need to mention that they need to ground 20 aircraft for the winter? Answer: Free advertising and making other airlines panic.
So why did they buy 10 more aircraft 18 months ago for delivery in 2008 when they knew back then that the oil prices would climb? Is MOL such a bad forecaster? Not sure about that but MOL is certainly a good advertiser.
Read this: appeared in the guardian 08/02/2008
http://truckdriver.blog-city.com/htt...8economics.htm
http://news.manta.com/articles/descr...130000148-0304
Business is like politics.
Don't let yourself be manipulated.
You are right, even Ryanair is grounding their aircraft for the winter.
Anyway you forgot to mention that Aer Lingus ordered 12 aircraft: http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...0_a330300.html
Airlines come and airlines go.
Why would Ryanair need to mention that they need to ground 20 aircraft for the winter? Answer: Free advertising and making other airlines panic.
So why did they buy 10 more aircraft 18 months ago for delivery in 2008 when they knew back then that the oil prices would climb? Is MOL such a bad forecaster? Not sure about that but MOL is certainly a good advertiser.
Read this: appeared in the guardian 08/02/2008
The head of Ryanair and scourge of environmentalists is a hard man to love, but Michael O'Leary's statement this week that he would welcome a recession has forced us to question the assumption that it would be bad news for everyone. O'Leary's thinking is entirely selfish: he hopes a recession will force weaker rivals out of business and dissuade governments from introducing green taxes.
http://news.manta.com/articles/descr...130000148-0304
Business is like politics.
Don't let yourself be manipulated.
Last edited by nich-av; 11th Apr 2008 at 19:57.
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He didn't "Block your account". I raised an objection about our continued use of allowing a username that promotes your business. We don't normally let that happen as our advertisers are expected to pay for advertising. In fact the moderator of this site advocated your position to some extent, so I think you owe him an apology.
Your access would have been restricted while the the changes were effected. However despite this inconvenience you can now resume where you left off.
Your access would have been restricted while the the changes were effected. However despite this inconvenience you can now resume where you left off.
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I understand that.
I don't want to hide either you know, I think it should be fair that everyone knows that I may not be objective in some regards.
I apologise for the inconvenience.
Don't bother, our managers are looking into you guys for ads, I'm just there to test your nerves.
I don't want to hide either you know, I think it should be fair that everyone knows that I may not be objective in some regards.
I apologise for the inconvenience.
Don't bother, our managers are looking into you guys for ads, I'm just there to test your nerves.
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Nich Av ,
I thought the mods were extremely generous in allowing you to advertise for free as long as they did.
But you do have a point. At least we know your continual objections to SSTRs and suggestions that fATPLs should indulge in a pointless and expensive hour building course instead has a commercial interest if you use your company name.
I thought the mods were extremely generous in allowing you to advertise for free as long as they did.
But you do have a point. At least we know your continual objections to SSTRs and suggestions that fATPLs should indulge in a pointless and expensive hour building course instead has a commercial interest if you use your company name.
Last edited by Artie Fufkin; 11th Apr 2008 at 20:05.
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There's always you 4 or 5 guys criticising anything here about me and my company.
I wonder what motivates you?
It's a shame that we cant have a civilised conversation without becoming personal. Stay focused on the topic, bring up some interesting stuff, discuss, chill-out. If you have anything personal to say use the PM.
No need to bluff around saying how bad we are (when you don't even have a clue), just to show everyone how good you are at it. It's not like it's gonna earn you the legion d'honneur.
You support expensive SSTR's and integrated FTO's?
I support low-cost flight training and anything that goes with it and anything that would bring any expensive school to lower their prices.
Why? Because I know what it takes for a middle-class student to pay for aviation training. Haven't I risked my life on the roads driving for a car rental agency during the day while working night shifts at an airport hotel and going to my theory PPL lessons in the evening? On average I didn't sleep for the 4 first days of a new week.
Mates of mine work as cab drivers, dish washers, waiters, cabin crew,etc.. to get there.
Why should you bash anyone working for a good cause?
I wonder what motivates you?
It's a shame that we cant have a civilised conversation without becoming personal. Stay focused on the topic, bring up some interesting stuff, discuss, chill-out. If you have anything personal to say use the PM.
No need to bluff around saying how bad we are (when you don't even have a clue), just to show everyone how good you are at it. It's not like it's gonna earn you the legion d'honneur.
You support expensive SSTR's and integrated FTO's?
I support low-cost flight training and anything that goes with it and anything that would bring any expensive school to lower their prices.
Why? Because I know what it takes for a middle-class student to pay for aviation training. Haven't I risked my life on the roads driving for a car rental agency during the day while working night shifts at an airport hotel and going to my theory PPL lessons in the evening? On average I didn't sleep for the 4 first days of a new week.
Mates of mine work as cab drivers, dish washers, waiters, cabin crew,etc.. to get there.
Why should you bash anyone working for a good cause?
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Interesting discussion as to what I think is causing this recession, ie Wall Street analysts and their negative predictions diffused in the media:
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3930630/
and another one that mirrors this topic, some saying it's not a good time to become a pilot, others saying we're on the edge of the pilot supply cliff.
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3931565/
I personally think we're on the edge of the cliff and though I know very well that flight schools have been using this argument abusively to market training at higher prices, this is becoming real.
Read the cover of the magazine www.airliners.tv
I think that this recession will only temporarily delay the effect (for as long as it lasts).
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3930630/
and another one that mirrors this topic, some saying it's not a good time to become a pilot, others saying we're on the edge of the pilot supply cliff.
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3931565/
I personally think we're on the edge of the cliff and though I know very well that flight schools have been using this argument abusively to market training at higher prices, this is becoming real.
Read the cover of the magazine www.airliners.tv
I think that this recession will only temporarily delay the effect (for as long as it lasts).
Last edited by nich-av; 12th Apr 2008 at 02:16.
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So why did they buy 10 more aircraft 18 months ago for delivery in 2008 when they knew back then that the oil prices would climb? Is MOL such a bad forecaster? Not sure about that but MOL is certainly a good advertiser.
6 airlines bust in 2 weeks, and surely Alitalia to follow within a week or two as well...
- ATA
- Oasis HK
- Aloha
- Frontier
- Skybus
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He is an asset trader as well - he aims to offload older 737-800s to replace them with newer ones, so his fleet is always newer, and he makes a huge profit on being able to provide aircraft to the secondary market.
We have been in a similar situation to the actual situation 4 years ago with an epicenter in Europe unlike today in USA
Read this article published in June 2004:
The soaring price of petrol has added to the financial squeeze. Ryanair, EasyJet and BmiBaby have so far chosen to protect their cut-price reputation rather than joining British Airways in imposing a levy on ticket prices to cover high oil costs. But a long-term increase in fuel prices could force them to edge up fares, and now may be the time for customers to cash in on low prices.
Casualties are already piling up. In April, Planet Air called in liquidators after flying for 14 months from Leeds Bradford airport. Then last month, Birmingham-based Duo went bust, leaving 50,000 passengers with forward bookings as unsecured creditors.
In Ireland, Shannon-based SkyNet grounded its fleet on May 25, two weeks after sacking half its pilots. It was the third Irish low-cost operator, after JetGreen and JetMagic, to cease trading this year.
Elsewhere in Europe, the failures are numerous. Goodjet, Flying Finn and Ciao Fly have briefly graced the continent's skies before shutting down.
The succession of strugglers has left consumer watchdogs with a headache. Unlike tour operators, low-cost airlines have no obligation to lodge a bond protecting passengers if they go out of business. Travellers with advance bookings can be left out of pocket or worse, stranded hundreds of miles from home.
Alitalia's crisis has nothing to do with the recession, but it is very dangerous indeed.
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The troubles at Alitalia etc etc haven’t ‘just happened’ overnight.
All sectors of industry are littered with brands which are no more.
Why?... Because their markets were talking themselves into recession?
No,… it is simply because other Brands got better, bigger, smarter and adapted to consumer trends and economic situations.
Take the motor industry. Where are Austin, Rover, Hillman, Triumph etc etc.? They, and dozens of other brands disappeared when the number of cars on the road was a tiny fraction of what we see today.
Fact is, they hadn’t adapted to change and had become financially unviable.
Times change and brands die That does not mean that industries die!
There are more people flying now than when Alitalia and all the other Airlines, which are no more, started to get into trouble. They did NOT go bust over night!!. Their problems have been there for years!
I’ll put money on the fact that, come back in a years time, and we will have seen year on year increase in passenger numbers and no fewer pilots.
EZY, Ryan Virgin etc etc make money….loads of it. It will take more than the gloom and doom we are seeing here to put them into a loss situation or, even to get close to dipping into their somewhat large reserves.
They may well make less profit and their share price may drop for a while but, will they stop efforts to expand and increase turnover? I think not!!
An economic downturn is a challenge. The weak will get weaker and the strong will get stronger. Market size will increase, but the players may change…that is not a new concept! We will make every effort not to head backwards, it’s not in human nature.
The easiest way towards a recession is to talk your way into it. It’s a chain reaction!
You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.
The worst thing to come out of the 90’s for wannabes was that BA got financially smart, scrapped their sponsorship programme and started to make money.
Now don’t get me wrong! I accept that we are in difficult times. But Hey,what’s new in this business!
Anyway, if you are worried, go modular, take your time. Get an FI job (there are LOADS of them), build some hours… put yourself further up the food chain. But that’s an other argument all together!!!
All sectors of industry are littered with brands which are no more.
Why?... Because their markets were talking themselves into recession?
No,… it is simply because other Brands got better, bigger, smarter and adapted to consumer trends and economic situations.
Take the motor industry. Where are Austin, Rover, Hillman, Triumph etc etc.? They, and dozens of other brands disappeared when the number of cars on the road was a tiny fraction of what we see today.
Fact is, they hadn’t adapted to change and had become financially unviable.
Times change and brands die That does not mean that industries die!
There are more people flying now than when Alitalia and all the other Airlines, which are no more, started to get into trouble. They did NOT go bust over night!!. Their problems have been there for years!
I’ll put money on the fact that, come back in a years time, and we will have seen year on year increase in passenger numbers and no fewer pilots.
EZY, Ryan Virgin etc etc make money….loads of it. It will take more than the gloom and doom we are seeing here to put them into a loss situation or, even to get close to dipping into their somewhat large reserves.
They may well make less profit and their share price may drop for a while but, will they stop efforts to expand and increase turnover? I think not!!
An economic downturn is a challenge. The weak will get weaker and the strong will get stronger. Market size will increase, but the players may change…that is not a new concept! We will make every effort not to head backwards, it’s not in human nature.
The easiest way towards a recession is to talk your way into it. It’s a chain reaction!
You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.
The worst thing to come out of the 90’s for wannabes was that BA got financially smart, scrapped their sponsorship programme and started to make money.
Now don’t get me wrong! I accept that we are in difficult times. But Hey,what’s new in this business!
Anyway, if you are worried, go modular, take your time. Get an FI job (there are LOADS of them), build some hours… put yourself further up the food chain. But that’s an other argument all together!!!
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Wow! that was a great read, especially after dozens of posts where people say don't bother training if your in it for the money. I start my training monday week, 21st april, and all i heard from people is that don't bother. I shrugged them off because i want to fly because i have a passion for it.
Your post should enlighten people that the aviation industry is not going to go bust, the world economy needs it... what else are we going to use, go back to the ship liners...
Your post should enlighten people that the aviation industry is not going to go bust, the world economy needs it... what else are we going to use, go back to the ship liners...
Clear Prop! -- Thank you for your post. Your comments:
You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.
I take no pleasure. The scraps I offer are all from quality sources. My Ivory Tower offers no gaurantee of keeping my base or seat. My wife is drawing up redundancy plans which may well include herself. The recession will be harsh and unpleasant. I certainly will be affected.
Again and again we shoot the messenger despite the Chancellor of the Exchequer stating the we face the worst financial crisis since the 1930's. The country, the West, the airline business is deeply in the brown stuff. Other pilots hate me for saying so.
But it is a fact things have never been worse for Wannabes. THIS IS 1990.
Learn from history or be condemned to repeat its mistakes.
WWW
You could be forgiven for thinking that certain individuals here take great pleasure in bringing to us every scrap of bad news they can find and deliver from their ‘I’m all right Jack’ ivory tower. I’m sure they don’t but, it sure as hell looks that way.
I take no pleasure. The scraps I offer are all from quality sources. My Ivory Tower offers no gaurantee of keeping my base or seat. My wife is drawing up redundancy plans which may well include herself. The recession will be harsh and unpleasant. I certainly will be affected.
Again and again we shoot the messenger despite the Chancellor of the Exchequer stating the we face the worst financial crisis since the 1930's. The country, the West, the airline business is deeply in the brown stuff. Other pilots hate me for saying so.
But it is a fact things have never been worse for Wannabes. THIS IS 1990.
Learn from history or be condemned to repeat its mistakes.
WWW