Rex - I'll start work on that time machine just after I've fixed my crystal ball.
I concede that words of warning a while back would have been timely. That's why I have been making grisly noises about the economy here for some time. Over six months ago I posted here:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...7&postcount=95
My views have hardened since then as the situation has deteriorated further and faster than I thought likely.
I think that a lot of people are expecting at worst a slowdown on the scale we saw post Sept11th which resulted in Wannabes basically having no job opportunities for around 2 years. And yes there were plenty of exceptions to that but for most guys with <500hrs there was a total drought of jobs as some airlines went bust and others froze.
My own view is that we face a 1990 - 1993 style recession rather than a 2002 - 2003 slowdown. That is a very different beast. In the months following Sept 11th in the UK you saw Ryanair and easyJet go to Boeing and Airbus and place orders for nearly 250 new aircraft. Deliveries started within a year. Both operated cadet schemes of some form and both soaked up a lot of pilots displaced from other airlines.
At this time easyJet has shut the recruitment door and Ryanair is planning to ground 20 aircraft over the winter. In both cases UK expansion is only planned to be limited and there may be none at all.
Just these two companies being in a different recruitment mode this time will see even a post Sept 11th slowdown me MUCH more painful for Wannabes than last time. A full blown recession would be an order of magnitude worse.
There are things people can do. Even if they are embarked on an Integrated course there is nothing to stop you cancelling the SSTR you were toying with doing. Nothing to stop you contacting your creditors NOW before you get to the repayment phase and seeing if terms and conditions can be improved. You can make plans for personal insolvency by perhaps spending any savings you have now rather than using a loan to preserve them for a rainy day. If you are going to go bust then its best to have spent all your money.
You might be able to choose between a full time and part time groundschool course. You might be able to ask your employer if part time working or a career break is available which given business belt tightening it might be. This might allow you to keep your old job in some form even whilst you acquire your licenses at a slower rate. You might be able to look at training abroad rather than in the UK (something I'm not a big fan of) as it can save a lot of money in the early training days given the Dollar rate.
There are lots of things to ponder. I hope this thread helps people to ponder.
I certainly think quite a few people will decide not to train or that the credit allowing them to do so will be removed. I think that a great many people will no longer be able to release money by selling their house or gettiing their parents to remortgage. I think that therefore competition for jobs may be less tough in 18 months from now.
I'm perfectly delighted that this view has been expressed as this thread is all about exploring the issues for others benefit.
I just happen to think there won't be any jobs for people to compete for as I expect some airlines to go bust in the meantime.
Which is sad and scary.
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