Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors UK house price balance felll in March to its lowest in the 30-year history of the survey, RICS said on Tuesday, sending a strong signal that the housing market is cooling fast.
The net balance of surveyors reporting falling, rather than rising, house prices deteriorated to -78.5 in the three months to March from -65.7 in February -- the lowest since survey began in January 1978 and well below forecasts for a reading of -67.5. The figures are likely to reinforce expectations the Bank of England will need to continue cutting interest rates this year,after trimming rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent last week. Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax said last week that house prices fell in March at their sharpest pace since the recession of the early 1990s as the credit crunch forces banks to toughen up mortgage terms and begins to hurt consumers. "Sentiment is at a very low ebb and will continue to remain depressed while the economy suffers from this unique liquidity blight," said Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman.
The net balance of surveyors reporting falling, rather than rising, house prices deteriorated to -78.5 in the three months to March from -65.7 in February -- the lowest since survey began in January 1978 and well below forecasts for a reading of -67.5. The figures are likely to reinforce expectations the Bank of England will need to continue cutting interest rates this year,after trimming rates by 25 basis points to 5 percent last week. Britain's biggest mortgage lender Halifax said last week that house prices fell in March at their sharpest pace since the recession of the early 1990s as the credit crunch forces banks to toughen up mortgage terms and begins to hurt consumers. "Sentiment is at a very low ebb and will continue to remain depressed while the economy suffers from this unique liquidity blight," said Jeremy Leaf, RICS spokesman.
The chronology of the last recession was massive house price inflation in the years of the late 1980's (Lawson +32.0% 1st Quarter of '89) (Brown +25.8% 1st Quarter '03). Then you get an affordability crisis leading to a crash in house prices. Then finally you get the recession that stems from a collapse in consumer confidence and associated job losses.
ERM related interest rates was partly a trigger last time. This time its a credit crunch.
You'll read lots of arguments in the months ahead that there won't be a house price crash or a recession because employment remains high. This is bogus. The unemployment comes towards the end and merely perpetuates and prolongs the recession. Its not initially causal.
I think from the hunted look in Gordons eyes that he knows it will be bad and that there is nothing a small government with no money can do about it.
WWW
ERM related interest rates was partly a trigger last time. This time its a credit crunch.
You'll read lots of arguments in the months ahead that there won't be a house price crash or a recession because employment remains high. This is bogus. The unemployment comes towards the end and merely perpetuates and prolongs the recession. Its not initially causal.
I think from the hunted look in Gordons eyes that he knows it will be bad and that there is nothing a small government with no money can do about it.
WWW
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Easyjet recrutment
As www says Easyjet have stopped recruting and are over crewed for the winter but it is the fear with some of the easyjet trainers that the company won't have enough crews to cover next summers flying program.
It will be interesting to see if stopping recrutmet is a wise move in the face of an economic crash or management panic in the face of a slow down in the economy.
Only time will tell.
It will be interesting to see if stopping recrutmet is a wise move in the face of an economic crash or management panic in the face of a slow down in the economy.
Only time will tell.
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I think another thing to remember when hearing of Ryanair and the like putting 20 aircaft offline 'for the winter' is that there is a lot of spin on these statements for the sake of the share prices, maybe what they actually mean is that 'things are slowing down and we're cutting loss making routes early.'
Another interesting thing is that i know a head of a mortgage sales company that 'hasn't sold a single mortgage in 3 weeks' and seen half their colleagues laid off in the past month. I wonder if they'll spend there redundancy on a weekend away in europe with the crap exchange rate- i think not!
What slowdown eh, McDonalds here i come!
Another interesting thing is that i know a head of a mortgage sales company that 'hasn't sold a single mortgage in 3 weeks' and seen half their colleagues laid off in the past month. I wonder if they'll spend there redundancy on a weekend away in europe with the crap exchange rate- i think not!
What slowdown eh, McDonalds here i come!
Last edited by HN1708; 15th Apr 2008 at 10:28.
Given the near impossibility of making pilots redundant and the very low turnover rate that would occur in a recession I suspect all airlines will be desperate NOT to be overcrewed. Perhaps this will be good news for the contracting agencies in the coming months.
Parc and the like certainly seem to have no shortage of work for people.
WWW
Parc and the like certainly seem to have no shortage of work for people.
WWW
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This will not doubt lead to more lay-offs over the other side of the pond....
Delta buys Northwest to create world's biggest airline
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 8:03am BST 15/04/2008
Delta Air Lines has agreed to buy rival Northwest Airlines in a $3.6bn deal that will create the world's largest airline and is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation across the industry.
Delta and Northwest have confirmed merger
Following months of talks, Delta and Northwest have confirmed their merger plans, that will be structured as a takeover of Northwest by Delta but will value both airlines at around $3bn each.
The pair were close to announcing their merger back in February, but that plan was derailed following disagreements between Delta and its all-powerful pilots over the future seniority of pilots post-merger.
Delta buys Northwest to create world's biggest airline
By James Quinn, Wall Street Correspondent
Last Updated: 8:03am BST 15/04/2008
Delta Air Lines has agreed to buy rival Northwest Airlines in a $3.6bn deal that will create the world's largest airline and is likely to trigger a wave of consolidation across the industry.
Delta and Northwest have confirmed merger
Following months of talks, Delta and Northwest have confirmed their merger plans, that will be structured as a takeover of Northwest by Delta but will value both airlines at around $3bn each.
The pair were close to announcing their merger back in February, but that plan was derailed following disagreements between Delta and its all-powerful pilots over the future seniority of pilots post-merger.
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UA and CO will probably merge very soon as well.
Don't worry there's enough jobs in the U.S.
Dayjet is hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month likely to increase to 30-40 per month by year-end when Eclipse starts to ramp-up their production.
They pay quite good salaries:
http://airlinepilotcentral.com/airli...al/dayjet.html
Don't worry there's enough jobs in the U.S.
Dayjet is hiring 5 to 10 pilots per month likely to increase to 30-40 per month by year-end when Eclipse starts to ramp-up their production.
They pay quite good salaries:
http://airlinepilotcentral.com/airli...al/dayjet.html
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nich av - hardly inspiring.
If you expect people on here to be inspired that dayjet are hiring on the EA500 then perhaps it might be worth a rethink.
EA's days are numbered without major financial restructuring, the premiums for that aircraft are now nearly nil and have transferred to mustang, probably because they are flown with a basic wing leveller/ heading bug autopilot and it will be "some time" beofre thay get approved for flight into known icing.
It will also be "some time" before EASA certification
"cos its crap" (My quote)
Wannabees do just enough training to get you to the point where by you have an instructors rating, get some p1 time (albeit in a single - common sense does not have a multi rating!) and when things even sniff of picking up do a multi IR and be 12-18months nearer the command course than your pears when the jet jobs reappear.
Less debt, less frustration, more skilled, more hours, more sense
If you expect people on here to be inspired that dayjet are hiring on the EA500 then perhaps it might be worth a rethink.
EA's days are numbered without major financial restructuring, the premiums for that aircraft are now nearly nil and have transferred to mustang, probably because they are flown with a basic wing leveller/ heading bug autopilot and it will be "some time" beofre thay get approved for flight into known icing.
It will also be "some time" before EASA certification
"cos its crap" (My quote)
Wannabees do just enough training to get you to the point where by you have an instructors rating, get some p1 time (albeit in a single - common sense does not have a multi rating!) and when things even sniff of picking up do a multi IR and be 12-18months nearer the command course than your pears when the jet jobs reappear.
Less debt, less frustration, more skilled, more hours, more sense
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Fellow trainees please do not do an instructor rating. That's my plan. All mine I tell you......
Dear God, the groundschool revision has turned my brain to mush.......... now where was I. Oh yes Portsmouth. Wibble.
Dear God, the groundschool revision has turned my brain to mush.......... now where was I. Oh yes Portsmouth. Wibble.
Halifax, Britain's biggest mortgage lender, has raised rated for the second time this month as the crisis in the credit markets grips the wider economy.
The lender plans to hike the rates by as much as 0.5% from tomorrow.
Holy Hell. Talk about pouring petrol on a house fire! Half a percent hike in mortgages just sneaked out in an after business hours statement.
I can just hear the summer holiday budget evaporating...
WWW
The lender plans to hike the rates by as much as 0.5% from tomorrow.
Holy Hell. Talk about pouring petrol on a house fire! Half a percent hike in mortgages just sneaked out in an after business hours statement.
I can just hear the summer holiday budget evaporating...
WWW
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And thats after they met the PM in the morning who asked them to lower rates.... but instead they still put them up!
Tough times ahead for the mortgage market although this must increase the chances of a bail-out as the government must be sh*tting themselves
Tough times ahead for the mortgage market although this must increase the chances of a bail-out as the government must be sh*tting themselves
Qantas is shifting much of their work to Jet *. Qantaslink are parking aeroplanes because of a lack of suitable pilots. Well, a lack of suitable pilots who'll work for the money offered.
The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.
Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)
My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)
If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.
NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.
The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.
Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)
My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)
If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.
NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.
For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.
Here is one of his from 2003. Sound familiar? Just at the time when FR and EZY were going nuts with new orders.
I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.
Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.
Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.
There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.
Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.
There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.
Mores the pity.
WWW
Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.
Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.
There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.
Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.
There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.
Mores the pity.
WWW
Sorry WWW, but if you don't occasionaly change the record people stop listening.
Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.
However, while the pilot job market will continue to move here in the UK we do face problems, oil price, Euro exchange rate are two, the Dollar rate has insulated us from the worst of the oil price rises but if this slips substantially then a lot of airlines are in trouble. And if a big one goes bust, all bets are off.
My personal advice is to try to arrange training so your not graduating this year, if that's not possible then have a backup plan to keep yourself current.
While I don't want to get into an argument over the British economy, I think we are in allot better shape, long term, than the headlines would have us believe.
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Indeed Jonty, unfortunately only the bad news makes the headlines.
Uk unemployment has fallen by 39,000 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7350042.stm)
Now if that had been an increase all hell might have very well broken out, instead a small article on the bbc news page is all. That said, theres no doubt a slow down is upon us/beckoning, and by simply keeping a back-up plan and a close eye on how the economy is evolving is probably the best two pieces of advice in this thread.
(edited to add an UN to make sense, WWW)
Uk unemployment has fallen by 39,000 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7350042.stm)
Now if that had been an increase all hell might have very well broken out, instead a small article on the bbc news page is all. That said, theres no doubt a slow down is upon us/beckoning, and by simply keeping a back-up plan and a close eye on how the economy is evolving is probably the best two pieces of advice in this thread.
(edited to add an UN to make sense, WWW)
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Quote:
I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.
Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.
Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.
There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.
Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.
There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.
Mores the pity.
WWW
Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.
I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.
Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.
Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.
There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.
Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.
There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.
Mores the pity.
WWW
Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.
Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.
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There maybe a slowdown upon us but the airline industry will survive. Have a read of this in The Times, Turbo-Prop the way forward?
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3745007.ece
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3745007.ece
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Whilst the requirements for pilots from the likes of Emirates and Gulf Air et al all sounds like good news, generally their requirements are 4,000 hours of jet time. Traditionally you would have said that when the big boys are recruiting then that is good news for those further down the food chain. That has certainly been the case when BA have been recruiting historically as it meant jobs at Flybe etc have been freed up and they have been forced to lower their entry requirements to man the fleet. BUT I suspect that there will be blood on the floor with the continuing increase in fuel prices pushing some of the marginal niche routes and operators to the wall.
The first thing that happens in a recession is that people stop going on holidays. That then impacts on the charter and loco carriers first. There are already carriers only offering summer contracts to experienced crews and unpaid leave during the off season. Then business travelers decide to conduct meetings via tele conferences and seek major discounts from their travel providers.
The end result is you end up with a bunch of experienced guys looking for work. They have bills to pay just like anyone and beggers can't be choosers so they could well take the jobs that might have been for the ab-initio pilot when times were previously tough for the recruiters.
Add into the mix the fact that a certain loud mouthed CEO of a loco has a war chest of some 1bn quid to play with and you might just see quite a few of the smaller players no longer around. When times are tough you can always look forward to a 1m seat sale which might just tip others over the edge. Also what will come of Alitalia? 99.9% of mergers lead to cost cutting including job cuts so expect a flood of experienced CV's to be hitting HR desks across Europe. And that is without even considering a BMI/Virgin merger. There are reports that the start ups in the former Eastern Bloc are facing tough times. These typically took on ab-initio and self type funded bods. Many of these people will now have the hallowed 500hrs on type and probably an ATPL as well and could well be seeking to move back to the motherland.
Tread carefully and try to minimise your risk. Certainly don't be popping off to the bank and raising 100k on the basis of some marketing hype from the usual suspects.
The first thing that happens in a recession is that people stop going on holidays. That then impacts on the charter and loco carriers first. There are already carriers only offering summer contracts to experienced crews and unpaid leave during the off season. Then business travelers decide to conduct meetings via tele conferences and seek major discounts from their travel providers.
The end result is you end up with a bunch of experienced guys looking for work. They have bills to pay just like anyone and beggers can't be choosers so they could well take the jobs that might have been for the ab-initio pilot when times were previously tough for the recruiters.
Add into the mix the fact that a certain loud mouthed CEO of a loco has a war chest of some 1bn quid to play with and you might just see quite a few of the smaller players no longer around. When times are tough you can always look forward to a 1m seat sale which might just tip others over the edge. Also what will come of Alitalia? 99.9% of mergers lead to cost cutting including job cuts so expect a flood of experienced CV's to be hitting HR desks across Europe. And that is without even considering a BMI/Virgin merger. There are reports that the start ups in the former Eastern Bloc are facing tough times. These typically took on ab-initio and self type funded bods. Many of these people will now have the hallowed 500hrs on type and probably an ATPL as well and could well be seeking to move back to the motherland.
Tread carefully and try to minimise your risk. Certainly don't be popping off to the bank and raising 100k on the basis of some marketing hype from the usual suspects.
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The picture that is emerging here is just one of balance....
At one end you have Nich Av who believes that the aviation job market is going to expand rapidly in the next 12 months (due to a range of reasons i.e. a growing number of private jets, Middle east, asia) and at the other WWW who thinks the UK is going into a huge recession and we are going back to a 2001 type job market.
Personally from where I sit the truth is in the middle but certainly closer to WWW than Nich Av.
Nich Av you clearly feel offended by what some people have said about your comments. Whilst I make no apology from my side for having a different view to you and thinking some of your comments are frankly miss-informed (oil price hasn't gone up in real terms??) I respect you have a right to your view even if it seem pretty fanciful sat where I am when 1,000s of people that were filling business class seats for the past 5 years are losing their jobs.
The real value in this thread seems to be it is keeping wanabees up to speed with how quickly the finance (where you get your loan from) and job markets are changing which have to be THE most important things for a wanabee.
At one end you have Nich Av who believes that the aviation job market is going to expand rapidly in the next 12 months (due to a range of reasons i.e. a growing number of private jets, Middle east, asia) and at the other WWW who thinks the UK is going into a huge recession and we are going back to a 2001 type job market.
Personally from where I sit the truth is in the middle but certainly closer to WWW than Nich Av.
Nich Av you clearly feel offended by what some people have said about your comments. Whilst I make no apology from my side for having a different view to you and thinking some of your comments are frankly miss-informed (oil price hasn't gone up in real terms??) I respect you have a right to your view even if it seem pretty fanciful sat where I am when 1,000s of people that were filling business class seats for the past 5 years are losing their jobs.
The real value in this thread seems to be it is keeping wanabees up to speed with how quickly the finance (where you get your loan from) and job markets are changing which have to be THE most important things for a wanabee.
Jonty - I'll happily stand by that posting of mine in 2003.
We were just about to enter GW2, it did look like MyTravel might go bust, we were only 18 months from Sept11th and there were a lot of ex-Sabena and Swiss and other experienced pilots looking for work. Doing the PPL, some Groundschool and some hours wasn't a bad plan and it isn't now. No need to rush into an Integrated course or Multi IR or CPL when the wx radar is painting so much magenta.
For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.
Not withstanding that I've always been here since this forum was switched on I refute that I have only one record and that its always doom. I've acknowledged many times in 2005 and 2006 that we were firmly in Boom territory and that jobs were aplenty.
* * * * * *
If I might point you to another posting I made in 2003 on this forum on 5th May:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...9&postcount=14
Firstly, on a personal note, well done Luke - glad to see things worked out for you...
I am certain that things will really pick up in two years time - aviation is going to go the same way as it is in the US and that means 20% sustained growth for the next decade to reach US like levels. Just wait until there is an easyJet France, and Ryanair Germany and - sadly - no longer a Go-Fly Spain operating at the same levels as in the UK... Business travellers are demanding frequency in smaller aircraft - that still need 2 pilots.
Long Haul is looking good as well. The internet is making freight be shipped half way accross the world to a consumer who wants it delivered in 24hrs. Huge business markets in Latin America and China are barely yet exploited. Long haul leisure travel is the preserve of the very rich Western countries at the moment. But boy is that going to change as super jumbos and deregulation drive down prices and Westernisation provides both the money and the cultural influences to make people from India holiday in Florida or people in Brazil take a week in London.
Every airport in europe is festooned with cranes and bulldozers. A lot of pilots who entered the profession in the last boom - the 1970's package holiday - are now in their 50's.
This is a growth industry and make no mistake about it.
However. Spending the next 2 years servicing a massive debt whilst eeking out a few single engine hours for badger all money is going to be pretty damn miserable. I feel for all the people in that position I really do.
* * * * * * * *
And do you know what Jonty? I was pretty much right.
2003 and 2004 were pants for Wannabes. By 2005 things were ticking along nicely and 2006/7 were boom years. I've a long history here of commenting on the industry and the impact events in it will have on Wannabes.
I may err on the side of blackness A LITTLE but then that's because there is a whole industry out there arguing things are always sunny plus Wannabes have a natural enthusiasm to get on with their training and new career dream.
Just as in 2002 and 2003 if you could sit out 2008 & 2009 without watching your ratings lapse and your loan charges mount then that would be A Good Thing. I was trying to warn about this crisis from August last year but until its on the nine o' clock news people don't really believe you and won't listen anyway.
WWW
We were just about to enter GW2, it did look like MyTravel might go bust, we were only 18 months from Sept11th and there were a lot of ex-Sabena and Swiss and other experienced pilots looking for work. Doing the PPL, some Groundschool and some hours wasn't a bad plan and it isn't now. No need to rush into an Integrated course or Multi IR or CPL when the wx radar is painting so much magenta.
For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.
Not withstanding that I've always been here since this forum was switched on I refute that I have only one record and that its always doom. I've acknowledged many times in 2005 and 2006 that we were firmly in Boom territory and that jobs were aplenty.
* * * * * *
If I might point you to another posting I made in 2003 on this forum on 5th May:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...9&postcount=14
Firstly, on a personal note, well done Luke - glad to see things worked out for you...
I am certain that things will really pick up in two years time - aviation is going to go the same way as it is in the US and that means 20% sustained growth for the next decade to reach US like levels. Just wait until there is an easyJet France, and Ryanair Germany and - sadly - no longer a Go-Fly Spain operating at the same levels as in the UK... Business travellers are demanding frequency in smaller aircraft - that still need 2 pilots.
Long Haul is looking good as well. The internet is making freight be shipped half way accross the world to a consumer who wants it delivered in 24hrs. Huge business markets in Latin America and China are barely yet exploited. Long haul leisure travel is the preserve of the very rich Western countries at the moment. But boy is that going to change as super jumbos and deregulation drive down prices and Westernisation provides both the money and the cultural influences to make people from India holiday in Florida or people in Brazil take a week in London.
Every airport in europe is festooned with cranes and bulldozers. A lot of pilots who entered the profession in the last boom - the 1970's package holiday - are now in their 50's.
This is a growth industry and make no mistake about it.
However. Spending the next 2 years servicing a massive debt whilst eeking out a few single engine hours for badger all money is going to be pretty damn miserable. I feel for all the people in that position I really do.
* * * * * * * *
And do you know what Jonty? I was pretty much right.
2003 and 2004 were pants for Wannabes. By 2005 things were ticking along nicely and 2006/7 were boom years. I've a long history here of commenting on the industry and the impact events in it will have on Wannabes.
I may err on the side of blackness A LITTLE but then that's because there is a whole industry out there arguing things are always sunny plus Wannabes have a natural enthusiasm to get on with their training and new career dream.
Just as in 2002 and 2003 if you could sit out 2008 & 2009 without watching your ratings lapse and your loan charges mount then that would be A Good Thing. I was trying to warn about this crisis from August last year but until its on the nine o' clock news people don't really believe you and won't listen anyway.
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along
Just a thought.