Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....

[3Greens]

WWW, i have followed this thread with interest and cannot help but feel you are banging your head against a brick wall with some here. You have provided tangible evidence from a variety of sources that support your arguement whilist others seem to prefer the "positive attitude" theory. Whilst i admire those able to put a positive spin on things when the chips are down, i firmly believe we are merely at the start of what is going to be a global downturn, and not only in the filed of aviation.
When the national banks (FEd, ECB) and pumping huge sums into the global money markets and STILL the banks won't lower their loan rates or more importantly, loan to each other we are in BIG trouble.

Over the last decade or so we have become used to cheap and easy debt, many using equity proprty realease.
I would be very careful about taking on a massive debt at this time. £100K with no job at the end of it...risky a few years ago,; but now -madness!

Good luck to those still not listening i fear you are going to need balls of steel.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Its by far the most important Wannabe issue. I can't find any other place where it is being discussed and therefore I am keen that the issue is fully explored here.

Cheers

WWW

[Philpaz]

Its by far the most important Wannabe issue. I can't find any other place where it is being discussed and therefore I am keen that the issue is fully explored here.

And finally a sensible thread from Le Paz;

It does appear that a majority of people participating in this thread are in deep denial about ALL our economic futures, either people are not watching the news, reading the papers or are simply so focussed on there dream that they have tunnel vision. Then again I hear Ray Bans are making a comeback, perhaps they are of the rose tinted variety.

I dont think anyone on this Forum would advise you not to train, they are simply trying to get you to approach with caution, have a plan of attack and not to run in blind. I get the feeling that a lot of the "keep smiling and it will all be ok" Clan are young, if i am correct in this assumption then what is the rush? Or is it simply that your parents are the ones taking the financial responsibility for your impatience?

Rather than shooting down dear old WWW at every opportunity, why not look at what he's saying, investigate, follow the links he is posting. He's not living on cloud nine like a lot of you (and look how cloud 9 aviation ended up!) he is simply firing a warning shot accross your bow, proceed at your own risk as it were.

I commend anyone that follows there dream and more so achieves it, but heading in to 100k of debt when the market is under so much strain, the banks are struggling and things are set to get worse is hardly commendable. If we avoid recession (unlikely in my oppinion) then there is still the oil connundrum, if we suddenly find more oil there is still the O'learys of this world to contend with. The outlook for aviation is bleak, therefore the struggle to the RHS is going to be harder than ever and i know i'd rather have the realist, the person that is aware of what is happening around them and plans accordingly sat next to me on the flight deck than the rose tinted briggade. But then again without correcting your heading now, you might not come out the other end of whatever were heading for now.

I'm training modular by the way, did consider OAT and CTC but decided against Integrated. Rather earn while i train.

Phil

[nich-av]

It does appear that a majority of people participating in this thread are in deep denial about ALL our economic futures, either people are not watching the news, reading the papers or are simply so focussed on there dream that they have tunnel vision.

The problem is partially in the news Philpaz.

All these rumours and negative thinking is bringing these airlines down.

Yesterday, AirTran lost 30% in the last hour of trade at Wall Street due to rumours saying that they were going to have the same problems as Frontier.

After closure, Air Tran responded with this:

Air tran , said late Friday its balance sheet is "ample" to fund operations, in light of the company's stock volatility. Shares of AirTran, which closed down 34.6% at $4.13, rebounded 29.3% to $5.34 in after-hour activity. AirTran said it has $358 million in cash and investments on its balance sheet. "AirTran Airways is one of the strongest low-cost carriers operating today," said Bob Fornaro, AirTran president and chief executive, in a statement. AirTran made the statement following a recent string of low-cost airlines that have folded because of high fuel prices.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Stor...yhoo&dist=yhoo




Another proof that I'm gonna quote from the equivalent thread on Airliners "Horrible time to become a pilot or perfect time?":

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-fo....main/3931565/

Interesting stuff here, for those of you who read Airliners Magazine this month you may have read an article of something along the lines of "THE PILOT SHORTAGE IS FINALLY HERE" You can see a copy of the cover here at http://www.airliners.tv but I don't have a link to the article and I am just not willing to type it up. Anyway I came across another article saying the exact opposite essentially there couldn't be a worse time to try to become a pilot, this one from the NY Times which may be seen here at:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/bu...&scp=9&sq=pilot&st=nyt&oref=slogin



An aviation magazine say we have a huge pilot shortage in the very near future, economy newspaper says the exact opposite. Who shall we believe? Industry analysts or Wall Street analysts?

As you will see, the arguments are very credible in both cases.

[Grass strip basher]

I love the idea that MOL "knew" the oil price was going to be $110-115 but then ryanair chose to be largely unhedged!... ha ha ha

[A and C]

WWW

A very bullish move to sell your house and move into rented accomodation and in the short term I think it will make money.

However I don't expect that you keep the cash under the bed but in a bank, If things are going to get as bad as you think then some of the banks will go down and the govermment won't be able to save them all.

So by selling your house you may find yourself with no money due to the bank crashing no house to live in and no job. I think I will just stay in the house that I own, at least I will not be pennyless and have to pay rent to keep a roof over my head.

I find it quite ironic that your money making idea is based on a smallish economic turndown (more my view of things) rather that the full blown crash that you seem to be predicting.

[nich-av]

I love the idea that MOL "knew" the oil price was going to be $110-115 but then ryanair chose to be largely unhedged!...

He knew very well and yet he confirmed the options for 2008. Everything he's shouting out in the media is for his own good. He's going to ground 20 aircraft and read further down for the real reason:


An article from February 2008:

Mr O'Leary said yesterday he could see "no reason" to scale back Ryanair's plans to grow capacity by 20pc each year.
"Part of that is because we can't (constrain growth), we confirm our options on aircraft two years out," he said. "And there are some opportunities that only crop up during a downturn".

Mr O'Leary later added that an impending economic recession could benefit Ryanair in the "long term" as it would "bring an end to the debate about environmental taxes on air travel".

and here the real reason why he will be grounding 20 aircraft this winter:

Meanwhile, he is preparing to ground a "significant" percentage of its Dublin fleet next winter in protest the airport's high charges. Ryanair now has 22 planes based at Dublin.

http://www.eturbonews.com/1164/budge...torm-fuel-cost

[Grass strip basher]

I also hear he heats his house by burning £50 notes belonging to both himself and Ryanair shareholders and is also being nominated for the Nobel peace prize for the charitable work he does keeping poor lowly paid pilots off the streets.

Or perhaps he is all about money (he has after all said he doesn't give a sh*t about pilots) and being unhedged could cost him tens of millions...

But he knew oil was going to $110??.... even he is not stupid or arrogant enough to pretend he can predict the oil price.

The only way he could gain from a recession is lots of other airlines going out of business... and that is not going to be good for pilot recruitment.

[nich-av]

For 2007/8, Ryanair has enjoyed average prices of about $65. This price could rise as high as $85 for 2008/9, Mr O'Leary warned, in a development that could add €280m to the airline's costbase.

This was said last February and oil prices have not risen against the euro by much since then, only the USD and GBP dropped, making oil prices rise too high for carriers who rely on these currencies. The EUR is traded at almost 1.6 now while it only broke the magic 1.5 mark 46 days ago.

The GBP is only worth 1.25 EUR and still free diving...

[Grass strip basher]

So your point is because of the move in the Euro that the oil price is not hurting European airlines??

[nich-av]

Yes, the kerosene at the pump hasn't risen unusually in the past few months.

Even in the US, AVGas prices are pretty much unchanged since November 2007. AvGas at our airfield is 3.7USD/USG compared to 3.5 in early 2007.

The media make a huge fuss of all this.

Oil prices have increased steadily over the past 5 years as a result of a healthy inflation. What you see today at your local gas station is not the result of a recession, a crisis or whatever the media is trying to make us believe.
It's an increase that we've been living with for decades now.

A New B747-100 costed 25 million USD at launch, today you'll pay over 200 million for a B748. A new Cessna 150 would cost 15k USD back in 1970, today you'll pay about 20k for that very same now used aircraft with 10K TT.

Airlines usually take profit of this argument to apply illegal fuel surcharges to boost their profits.

What we see in the US is a devaluation of the USD, but as I've told many times, it's their own fault. OPEC has made it clear that they are charging the exact same price for their fuel as they did 12 months ago and that they won't give in to help the broken US economy.

A solution for the US? Better regulate the inflow of Chinese products, set up better industrial environments, stop fighting wars, etc... Just follow the democratic electoral campaigns, there's good idea's in there.

[Grass strip basher]

Ah it is reassuring to know that the profit warnings we are getting from the airlines are not real as well... and I am sure the pilots of Oasis will be pleased to hear that their company has not really gone bust...

The price of oil has not really gone up in "real" terms.... that is perhaps the most bizarre statement I have ever seen on Pprune.... and you wonder why people don't take you seriously... its is frightening they let people like you train to be airline pilots.... perhaps that is why T&Cs are in freefall in the industry.. a dumbing down of the required pilot IQ

[nich-av]

I won't waste my time explaining something that you don't want to understand.

It is more frightning to see your kind of snob, macho, uncool, "I'm always right mentality" in a cockpit. People visiting this forum do get a good idea of what kind of people they'll be flying with and sadly some here tend to ruin the pilot image with childish comments and alot of disrespect.

Pilots used to be cool and smart guys who needed to pass difficult entry selections at legacy carriers, today the cockpit get filled with self-sponsored clueless sissies with wealhty parents who would pay a fortune to tell their neighbours that their son/daughter is training for the right hand seat. (with respect to wealthy students that do reflect exemplary motivation).

My experience tells me that such a guy can come out of the ATPL exam room asking what a King Air or a Twin-Otter is...

For your information I have passed the Eurocontrol assessment with success 3 years ago, and I have an average IQ of 145. I think you should reconsider your own IQ before posting such comments.

Sorry for flaming at you but you've asked for it.

[clear prop!!!]

Well said that man!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

A very bullish move to sell your house and move into rented accomodation and in the short term I think it will make money.

However I don't expect that you keep the cash under the bed but in a bank, If things are going to get as bad as you think then some of the banks will go down and the govermment won't be able to save them all.

So by selling your house you may find yourself with no money due to the bank crashing no house to live in and no job. I think I will just stay in the house that I own, at least I will not be pennyless and have to pay rent to keep a roof over my head.

I find it quite ironic that your money making idea is based on a smallish economic turndown (more my view of things) rather that the full blown crash that you seem to be predicting.

Its a very Bearish move - not bullish. My cash in the bank used to be in Icesave but as the Icelandic banking system moves towards collapse I have moved my money into Northern Rock. Having a 6.35% fixed one year easy access account that is 100% guaranteed by the treasury over an above the £35k banking code limit makes it a no brainer...

So I have considered a systemic collapse of the banking system and taken appropriate steps. In the meantime the next house I buy is going down 2% a month whilst my equity in the bank is going up.

This is all beside the point. Nich-av has never sat in a commercially operated flight deck and therefore his views are irrelevant speculation and misinformed guesswork. I do and I can tell you that it doesn't matter one jot whether you are Int or Mod or 40 or 19.

IT DOESN'T MATTER.


WWW

[Artie Fufkin]

Nich Av,

Since you accused me a few months back of being none other than international hollywood film star John Travolta, I have observed your postings with a mixture of amusement and increasing incredulity.

The thing that has amused me the most, is that on nearly every thread you apprear on you seem to manage to upset someone, who generally tells you that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Has this trend passed you by un-noticed?

Sorry for flaming at you but you've asked for it.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

He's a useful idiot..

Not the first and certainly not the last. I thank him for his contribution to Wannabes.

WWW

[Yahweh]

"Since you accused me a few months back of being none other than international hollywood film star John Travolta, I have observed your postings with a mixture of amusement and increasing incredulity"

"Pulp fiction" was pretty good but man you were crap in "look who's talkin"

[nich-av]

The thing that has amused me the most, is that on nearly every thread you apprear on you seem to manage to upset someone, who generally tells you that you have no idea what you are talking about.

Has this trend passed you by un-noticed?

There is no such trend seen the amount of PM's of support and advising requests I get. It's always the same 4-5 guys on here. People are used to reading the usual bull**** you guys post.

Giving people another insight, the opportunity to look at things from another perspective and sometimes making them realise that we're living in a highly manipulated world... isn't it great?

Yeah WWW, I guess this battle here can provide a good read for many wannabe's. Discussing job outlooks is very complicated and anyone can be proven wrong with time.

My thought is that we shouldn't jump to conclusions too fast. We already knew in early 2007 that there would be a predictable slowdown in 2008 and that weaker airlines would go bust. I think it takes more than that to stop pilot demand. I'm very concerned by the general loss of interest for the job by young people and I understand that it has a lot to do with the training's financials and lack of social life.
This reflects the shift of average age of trainees: not so long ago starting cadets were aged 20 to 25 and 30+ was a no go.
Today classrooms are filled with people aged 25-35.

If the recession ends 6 months from now and Alitalia finds a new owner, we'll be looking at a huge shortage of pilots. Luckily 2007 was a good year for flight schools and the effects of a pilot shortage may be delayed till mid-2009 or so.

Student88 came up with a valid argument saying there's no shortage of unexperienced pilots. Let me twist this argument and say that there is a shortage of suitable unexperienced pilots. Just because you have that blue licence doesn't mean you're good for the job.

What airlines want:
-min. 500 hours
-Good level in English and carrier's national language(s)
-Positive motivation
-Good psychometrics and IQ
-people suitable for an early upgrade

Useless to say that the naive sons and daughters of mummy and daddy who have 200h TT + B737 TR are the least suitable candidates for an airline. Not a wonder that there are plenty of them struggling to find the first job.

Go modular while working your ass off to finally get to that damned interview and your chances are already bigger. First because interviewers will like your story, second because you'll be hungry for that first job.

[Artie Fufkin]

What airlines want:
-min. 500 hours

This is exactly what winds people up.

This is a total fabrication designed to market your company's hour building services. Everyone on this forum knows that loads of people get hired with 200 hours (or less!).

STOP ADVERTISING!