Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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Oh well Artie, that's not what I mean to say with that.
Let me give you an example:
Airline A wants to hire 10 candidates for May-June.
They have received 50 applications.
Example 1: 2 applicants have over 1000TT, 13 have over 500TT, 35 have below 500 TT.
Guess what happens to the 35 low hour applications in this case?
They fly into the trash can.
Example 2: 1 over 1000TT, 5 over 500TT and 44 below 500TT.
5 out of 6 500+ pilots hired, 5 out of 44 below 500TT selected.
Those 5 out 44 will be those considered most suitable and certainly those who have A-levels and additional skills.
500 hours seems to be the magic number in Europe and 1000 for the US.
I can say the same ridiculous argument to you: you are a frustrated cadet struggling to find your first job or a student pilot that would diffuse false rumours to increase your own job chances...
No advertising here, I won't put that much time for the 10 or 20 viewers of this single thread, I would be mad if that were true.
Let me give you an example:
Airline A wants to hire 10 candidates for May-June.
They have received 50 applications.
Example 1: 2 applicants have over 1000TT, 13 have over 500TT, 35 have below 500 TT.
Guess what happens to the 35 low hour applications in this case?
They fly into the trash can.
Example 2: 1 over 1000TT, 5 over 500TT and 44 below 500TT.
5 out of 6 500+ pilots hired, 5 out of 44 below 500TT selected.
Those 5 out 44 will be those considered most suitable and certainly those who have A-levels and additional skills.
500 hours seems to be the magic number in Europe and 1000 for the US.
I can say the same ridiculous argument to you: you are a frustrated cadet struggling to find your first job or a student pilot that would diffuse false rumours to increase your own job chances...
No advertising here, I won't put that much time for the 10 or 20 viewers of this single thread, I would be mad if that were true.
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You are still peddling total nonsense!
If you insist on quoting 500 hours, with its implicit advise for fATPLs to go out and build more hours (a service that your company conveniently has a package for) then be specific. Try the UK as an example. Name some airlines that won't consider a 200 hour pilot. I'll start you off;
Virgin Atlantic.
Errr....
Please stop spreading disinformation that can only aid your commercial venture.
The recognised wisdom is that you have a good chance of getting airline work (here in the UK) with 200 hours, and failing that, to continue flying by instructing, or being more inventive by banner towing, parachute dropping etc, AND NOT spending 18,000 euros on an hour building course (or speculative SSTRs!)
(and this thread currently has had over 13,000 hits, the vast majority of which are desperate to secure thier first job and are vulnerable to dodgy advise!)
If you insist on quoting 500 hours, with its implicit advise for fATPLs to go out and build more hours (a service that your company conveniently has a package for) then be specific. Try the UK as an example. Name some airlines that won't consider a 200 hour pilot. I'll start you off;
Virgin Atlantic.
Errr....
Please stop spreading disinformation that can only aid your commercial venture.
The recognised wisdom is that you have a good chance of getting airline work (here in the UK) with 200 hours, and failing that, to continue flying by instructing, or being more inventive by banner towing, parachute dropping etc, AND NOT spending 18,000 euros on an hour building course (or speculative SSTRs!)
(and this thread currently has had over 13,000 hits, the vast majority of which are desperate to secure thier first job and are vulnerable to dodgy advise!)
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You're the one talking non-sense my dear friend.
You would rather spend 30 hours burning electricity on a SSTR than 150 burning fuel in a MEP? Come on. Which is more likely to earn you a job anyway?
Huh? I thought that you said that the huge recession and credit crunch were going to burn everyone alive and that UK airlines weren't hiring since January??
Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.
I have been following a recruitment process at a given airline very closely and all I can tell you is that the higher the hours, the better were the chances. Given airline would give preference to 500+ houred guys if such guys applied but often they didn't have a choice and recruited the best 200 hour guys from an integrated course.
If I had my own airline, I would not easily trust a B737 or A320 to a 200 hour guy, let alone an RJ. I think that the U.S. has a far better system allowing students to build more hours more easily so allowing them to keep very high recruiting standards. What justifies the JAA rule forbidding P2 time on MEP?
No matter how the student does it, instructing, hour building or air work, students need to acquire the necessary experience. How they do it is their choice and I would not try to influence that choice because I think that they are all very good.
I would love to see more flight schools taking initiatives though, rather than just the usual focussing on the pupil's money.
I'd rather see us competing in challenge against fair training providers who care about their pilots than all the expensive providers that'll loose comptitiveness and start going bankrupt when low-cost flight training becomes a norm a few years from now.
As such I applaude US based JAA flight schools for taking the initiative of offering fair pricing compared to many European FTO's offering sky-high integrated packages with most of the flying in the US...
You would rather spend 30 hours burning electricity on a SSTR than 150 burning fuel in a MEP? Come on. Which is more likely to earn you a job anyway?
The recognised wisdom is that you have a good chance of getting airline work (here in the UK) with 200 hours
Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.
I have been following a recruitment process at a given airline very closely and all I can tell you is that the higher the hours, the better were the chances. Given airline would give preference to 500+ houred guys if such guys applied but often they didn't have a choice and recruited the best 200 hour guys from an integrated course.
If I had my own airline, I would not easily trust a B737 or A320 to a 200 hour guy, let alone an RJ. I think that the U.S. has a far better system allowing students to build more hours more easily so allowing them to keep very high recruiting standards. What justifies the JAA rule forbidding P2 time on MEP?
No matter how the student does it, instructing, hour building or air work, students need to acquire the necessary experience. How they do it is their choice and I would not try to influence that choice because I think that they are all very good.
I would love to see more flight schools taking initiatives though, rather than just the usual focussing on the pupil's money.
I'd rather see us competing in challenge against fair training providers who care about their pilots than all the expensive providers that'll loose comptitiveness and start going bankrupt when low-cost flight training becomes a norm a few years from now.
As such I applaude US based JAA flight schools for taking the initiative of offering fair pricing compared to many European FTO's offering sky-high integrated packages with most of the flying in the US...
Last edited by nich-av; 13th Apr 2008 at 09:27.
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As I said above I think you will make money and the move into Northern Rock was an astute one however your making this work rather points to my view of an economic slowdown rather than the full blown crash that your posts seem to indicate.
I hope that you do make a lot of money on this house deal that you are doing with the IMF thinking that UK houses are 30% overprice it would seem that you are on to a winner and you will pull one of the "but to let" brigade out of the fire as well!
When the dust has settled from all of this I will be most interested how much free spending cash you make, after all it is the disposable income that drives the market for airline seats and that is what this thread is realy all about.
As for nich-av I would be very interested to see a few photos of his fleet, just to see if it is a "quality" hours building option or if he is renting a bunch of old dogs.
I hope that you do make a lot of money on this house deal that you are doing with the IMF thinking that UK houses are 30% overprice it would seem that you are on to a winner and you will pull one of the "but to let" brigade out of the fire as well!
When the dust has settled from all of this I will be most interested how much free spending cash you make, after all it is the disposable income that drives the market for airline seats and that is what this thread is realy all about.
As for nich-av I would be very interested to see a few photos of his fleet, just to see if it is a "quality" hours building option or if he is renting a bunch of old dogs.
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nich-av - stay on track on the economy...you are digressing to every subject under the sun.
OPEC do not "charge" a price - they pump the oil - and they are pumping oil at a similar rate to the past couple of years. Demand has risen, therefore with supply reasonably constant, prices in US$ have risen.
Price rises have been absorbed by (now unprofitable) refiners and petrol station retailers to some extent, and in Europe by the decline in the US$ - in US$ terms however, the price rise has been massive and very real indeed...have you driven in the US recently...?
What we see in the US is a devaluation of the USD, but as I've told many times, it's their own fault. OPEC has made it clear that they are charging the exact same price for their fuel as they did 12 months ago and that they won't give in to help the broken US economy.
Price rises have been absorbed by (now unprofitable) refiners and petrol station retailers to some extent, and in Europe by the decline in the US$ - in US$ terms however, the price rise has been massive and very real indeed...have you driven in the US recently...?
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Huh? I thought that you said that the huge recession and credit crunch were going to burn everyone alive and that UK airlines weren't hiring since January??
Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.
Get your thoughts together before opposing your own arguments.
When? Do feel free to use the quote function!
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Oh sorry Artie, as you say, all you did lately on this thread is post off-topic attacks to me.
A & C, me & you we're no competition. You're 7/11, I'm Walmart.
You're happy to rent your Cessna to 1 or 2 pilots per month, we aim for 40 per month. You must be a real genious to estimate an aircraft's quality by only seeing a tiny lil' picture. Our goold old PA-23 just got 2 new engines installed and 3 full-time mechanics worked throught the hard winter to overhaul all the equipment to perfection.
Envy my friends, is your worst enemy.
Sorry mods, I had to respond to these personal, totally off-topic attacks.
A & C, me & you we're no competition. You're 7/11, I'm Walmart.
You're happy to rent your Cessna to 1 or 2 pilots per month, we aim for 40 per month. You must be a real genious to estimate an aircraft's quality by only seeing a tiny lil' picture. Our goold old PA-23 just got 2 new engines installed and 3 full-time mechanics worked throught the hard winter to overhaul all the equipment to perfection.
Envy my friends, is your worst enemy.
Sorry mods, I had to respond to these personal, totally off-topic attacks.
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Sorry mods, I had to respond to these personal, totally off-topic attacks.
Fine then lets draw a line under that and get this thread back on track please.
This is a useful discussion that needs to take place and the constant and frankly irrelevant "my Cessna is better than yours" type posts we have had over the last few pages is only serving to dilute this thread and make it a chore to read.
Fine then lets draw a line under that and get this thread back on track please.
This is a useful discussion that needs to take place and the constant and frankly irrelevant "my Cessna is better than yours" type posts we have had over the last few pages is only serving to dilute this thread and make it a chore to read.
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wow www
I really think you should be a lecturer at LSE, you take this money stuff very seriously. I don't think I could be bothered shifting houses twice in a short period of time to make a few bob.
As long as I am comfortable and have enough to pay the mortgage I'm happy. Personally I couldn't be bothered with the upheaval of two house moves. Each to their own I suppose, and I am sure there will be other fanatics going through this extreme procedure on the trail of the greenback.
Good luck
I really think you should be a lecturer at LSE, you take this money stuff very seriously. I don't think I could be bothered shifting houses twice in a short period of time to make a few bob.
As long as I am comfortable and have enough to pay the mortgage I'm happy. Personally I couldn't be bothered with the upheaval of two house moves. Each to their own I suppose, and I am sure there will be other fanatics going through this extreme procedure on the trail of the greenback.
Good luck
I do find economics to be interesting and I am involved with the discussion of economics on a different internet forum. But I'm no expert. If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.
I do believe that we are moving into a Kondratiev Wave winter cycle.
Our (Western) debt has become unsustainable and the ability to buy our way out of further problems is severely compromised. One only needs to look at the decade long nightmare of Japan to see that zero interest rates and all the stimulation in the world has failed to bring it out of its slump. We are witnessing merely the beginning of the debt implosion that inevitably follows the excesses.
Will Hutton has an excellent piece on the UK housing crash in this weeks Observer:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...market.economy
And if all this is just too depressing you can trust Matt to make you smile about it:
WWW
I do believe that we are moving into a Kondratiev Wave winter cycle.
Our (Western) debt has become unsustainable and the ability to buy our way out of further problems is severely compromised. One only needs to look at the decade long nightmare of Japan to see that zero interest rates and all the stimulation in the world has failed to bring it out of its slump. We are witnessing merely the beginning of the debt implosion that inevitably follows the excesses.
Will Hutton has an excellent piece on the UK housing crash in this weeks Observer:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...market.economy
And if all this is just too depressing you can trust Matt to make you smile about it:
WWW
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If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.
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why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?
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You are implying that because he has an outlook (through a personal interest in economics) that isn't rosy for the economy (aviation in particular), that he should re-trade. Can his main interest not be aviation because he has a side interest in economics, or is he only allowed 1 interest?
because advising people of the possible pitfalls of aviation is obviously bad advice? Warning them off aquiring large debt in the current economic climate is obviously ludicrous? Perhaps you should re-read your own post.........
P.S. Just because he wouldn't be flying for a living if he could predict the future (because he would obviously be very very rich) does not mean he wouldn't be flying. If he didn't love flying i find it hard to believe he would have made it through training, never mind all the way to the R/LHS.
Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation
P.S. Just because he wouldn't be flying for a living if he could predict the future (because he would obviously be very very rich) does not mean he wouldn't be flying. If he didn't love flying i find it hard to believe he would have made it through training, never mind all the way to the R/LHS.
LHS actually.. 
I may well be being too pessimistic about the scale of recession ahead. My aim here is no more than to ensure that Wannabes, often young and none too financially literate, at least consider the threats that are out there. I was in High School during the 1990 - 93 recession and House Price Crash so it wasn't such a big deal for me. For Wannabes and for a great many pilots though it was a total nightmare of crushed dreams, heavy debts and many were forced out of the industry.
I know one fellow who went from an Airbus command with a UK airline to being a window cleaner at one point.
It happens.
My Boss is Andy Harrison and he's working under a pay freeze and tells me there will be blood on the carpet this year as airlines start to go bust. I believe him. I'm just passing on the message (and canceling my yacht order)...
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I may well be being too pessimistic about the scale of recession ahead. My aim here is no more than to ensure that Wannabes, often young and none too financially literate, at least consider the threats that are out there. I was in High School during the 1990 - 93 recession and House Price Crash so it wasn't such a big deal for me. For Wannabes and for a great many pilots though it was a total nightmare of crushed dreams, heavy debts and many were forced out of the industry.
I know one fellow who went from an Airbus command with a UK airline to being a window cleaner at one point.
It happens.
My Boss is Andy Harrison and he's working under a pay freeze and tells me there will be blood on the carpet this year as airlines start to go bust. I believe him. I'm just passing on the message (and canceling my yacht order)...
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Ok ill just copy and paste my post so we can both re-read it:
Quote:
If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.
Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation. Hey lots of the people on here have dreamed about flying for a living since they were born, why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?
See i wasnt implying that pilots cant have any other interests in life. Also i wasnt implying that because he has an outlook on the economy that doesnt bode particularly well for aspiring pilots that he should change career.
I just interperet that quote as being from someone who isnt particularly pleased with their career, which could possibly impact on his ability to give fair and balanced advice to said aspiring pilots.
I dont think its necessary to break down what he would and wouldnt be doing if he could see into the future with a magic crystal ball!
Quote:
If I really could predict the financial future I sure as hell wouldn't be flying for a living.
Hmm this attitude isnt very befitting of a man lecturing people on a future career in aviation. Hey lots of the people on here have dreamed about flying for a living since they were born, why dont you take up a career in economics instead and make one more cockpit seat available for people who really want it?
See i wasnt implying that pilots cant have any other interests in life. Also i wasnt implying that because he has an outlook on the economy that doesnt bode particularly well for aspiring pilots that he should change career.
I just interperet that quote as being from someone who isnt particularly pleased with their career, which could possibly impact on his ability to give fair and balanced advice to said aspiring pilots.
I dont think its necessary to break down what he would and wouldnt be doing if he could see into the future with a magic crystal ball!
Mark - I love my career and the job is everything I hoped it would be and more. There isn't a day at work when I don't think how lucky I am.
I'm a happy chap. I just see a lot of evidence that a rather proper Recession is about to befall the UK as it has the US.
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I'm a happy chap. I just see a lot of evidence that a rather proper Recession is about to befall the UK as it has the US.
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Been following excellent thread 
As a Wannabee I will try to follow the advice picked up and probably misquoted by me sometime ago.
Hope for the best. Plan for the worst
As a Wannabee I will try to follow the advice picked up and probably misquoted by me sometime ago.
Hope for the best. Plan for the worst