I know exactly the same thing as you. Reason I'm asking is that this is now, what, 4th or 5th time that Western inteligence were almost 100% sure Russians will attack on so and so date/event/whatever. Just curious what new trigger will be.

Crimea
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Serbia
Bosnia
Chechnaya
Finland
Poland
Etc..

https://wavellroom.com/2022/02/16/a-...kraine-crisis/

Good article from RUSI.

I say, blowing up buildings in your own country to justify an attack to Chechnya and then calling it a police action. Lo and behold, I must sit down.

Regarding Bosnia: russian troops were sent there starting 12th Jan 1996. What evidence are you looking for?

What comes to Serbia, the Russian troops entered Pristina "by accident" in 1999 and Moscow explained it that the troops' arrival was "a mistake". The soldiers had been ordered to leave "immediately", the Russian Foreign Minister, Mr Igor Ivanov said on CNN, reading a statement. The White House reacted saying it accepted Mr Ivanov's explanation "for now" but added that it wanted answers to Russia's investigation into the troop movement, CNN said.
(source, Irish times, june 12 1999)

what comes to ancient history: The fascist Finland shelling Mainila... oh please....

the US has made its mistakes no question but it would be incredibly naive and underestimation of the audience to try to white wash the deeds of Moscow.

Pre WW1 as part of the Greater Slavic movement in Russia revolutionary movements were financed and propagated, resulting in the start of the war.

The point is that Russia has form in this geographical area, including recently Crimea.

they’ve been preparing since late November. The only thing that’s changed is Biden and his shonky intelligence.

Putin is a chancer - and this time he’s had his bluff called, but there was never going to be an invasion and Biden’s entourage have escalated this to take the credit for de-escalating. When you’re weak, you have to find a way to appear strong.

you’ve all been had….

I tend to agree that currently both Putin and Biden are playing to their respective audience. I think it started by Putin as a real test how united NATO and Europe would be. Now seeing that even Eastern European states like Bulgaria are welcoming US Troops and all are agreeing on sanctions it became clear that Plan A was not really viable. Now it's about face saving and appearing strong for him and for Biden as well who has to make up for the Afghanistan mess. These alarmist Secret service (if it is really secret they are typically able to keep it as such - if information is leaked it is typically intended to be so) messages are messages for the public at home and in Europe to keep them in check.
Right now I don't really expect an invasion any more. Hope not to be proven wrong though.

I believe that the current situation is on hold whilst German and Russian administrations decide on the revisions required in order to bring the Molotov / Ribbentrop agreement up to date.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/russ...ry?id=82933378

Russian aircraft buzz US Navy patrol planes, get within 5 feet, Pentagon says

Not sure wha5 their role will be. Hopefully they won’t tangle with the Russian fighters in Latakia and Khmeimim.

Long piece on updates overnight in today’s Politico London Playbook.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/l...rles-cop-quiz/

Because he keeps posting grot from politico and Twitter, almost fetishing a conflict in Ukraine.

She - and reporting a growing military crisis would seem a major purpose of this forum - particurly when it is also dominating the first 15 minutes of every news report on the BBC, ITV, Sky etc.

For assuming your gender, you have my apologies. However, the Russians aren’t coming..

I suspect this is part of our propaganda efforts i.e. making out what looks like a routine deployment to be something special. I'm guessing these Typhoons are there for Shader sorties.

Watching GB news, announced we have sent 350 troops…
Enough to cover the border with ticket collectors.
Punching the tickets with the question of the destination.
Kiev..yes ..punch
Kiev ..yes ..punch
Kiev ..no ..Paris.
This is for Kiev.
Yes but our final destination is Paris. Macron has already surrendered.
p.s. before I get banned my dad was a translator for DeGaulle…

That means nothing. You cannot possibly know what the Russian government plans to do. In any case, let's have some perspective: We do know is that "the Russians" took part in a limited invasion of Ukraine back in in 2014; have previously annexed Ukranian territory; and have been active participants in a low-intensity war that has been ongoing since then. We also know (from multiple independent sources) that there has been an extraordinary build-up of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border over recent months. Either Russia is planning a larger-scale military operation, or wants people to think that it is planning one. Whether or not the "West" is talking up the crisis, it is not of their making and is concerning to many of us.

If the subject is of no interest to you, then by all means stop reading (and replying to the thread), but insulting people who are sharing or commenting on interesting and relevant information, (or even engaging in discussion or speculation) is tedious. Why not try making an argument rather than just stating an opinion? I would (genuinely) be interested to hear.