A nice thought, ignoring the potential human cost. But IMO Vlad cares about nothing except his own aggrandisement and the restoration of his view of Greater Russia (viewed through a FSU lens).

Ukraine has sent out a request for assistance to EADRCC.
The list of requested equipment is worrying, from basic wound treatmemt kits such as hemostatics to field camps and water trucks. List to be found from the link underneath.

The State Emergency Service of Ukraine is preparing for large-scale emergencies of various nature that can affect its civilian population. In accordance with the procedures at reference, the EADRCC has received on 15 February 2022, a request for international assistance by Ukraine.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191889.htm

Sadly, as an uninformed observer, it would appear that initially, Russia will quickly overwhelm Ukrainian forces.
I'd predict early losses would be bearable for them.
I think they'll smash the Ukraine airforce.
Ukraine manpads aren't useful against anything flying above FL15-20.
Ukraine airbases will be put out of action, and aircraft destroyed on the ground or in the air.
Russia has overwhelming superiority in troops and tank numbers.
Do they care if they lose a few in the opening hours?
Nyet comrade.
I think the real cost to Russian would probably be an ongoing Chechnya like occupation.
An ugly, cold meat grinder on their western border over coming weeks, months and possibly years that consumes soldiers as young Russian boys and girls are picked off by snipers from the windows of shattered buildings.
Does Vladimir Vladimirovich care about that?
Probably not.

They were due to have invaded by now - don’t tell
me this was just escalated by Biden and others hoping to cash in some diplomatic credibility when the threatened never actually materialised, which they’ll ultimately claim the credit for?

never believe you….

If they don’t attack, good. Still preparing it would appear.

The fruits of Russia’s “victory”….

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...rder-qj6lg25vp

Nato risks Russian anger with plan to deploy 4,000 troops on border

Nato is drawing up long-term plans to reinforce the alliance’s southeastern flank against Russian aggression with up to four new battlegroups, starting with a deployment to Romania. Defence ministers will discuss the plan in Brussels today in what would be Nato’s biggest escalation of “force posture” against Russia in six years.

Moscow will be angered by the proposal, which has yet to be formally agreed by Nato, because it clashes with Russian demands for the alliance to withdraw troops from eastern Europe.

Military planners are examining the deployment of four multinational battle groups of 1,000 troops each to Romania and Bulgaria, possibly followed by Slovakia and Hungary. There are fears in the latter two countries that the new deployments would enrage Moscow.

Jens Stoltenberg, the Nato secretary-general, described the latest proposals, on top of recent reinforcements in the region, as a consequence of the “lasting impact of the security situation in Europe” of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

“Nato defence ministers will address the need to further increase our defensive posture,” he said. “Nato is not only responding to the current crisis but we are also going to consider more long-term adjustments to our posture in the east.”

The plans are an extension of the “enhanced forward presence” deployment of battle groups in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland which are backed by tanks, air defences and intelligence and surveillance units….

Alliance defence ministers are expected to agree to the first step of directing military commanders to come up with a detailed plan for the four battle groups. A senior Nato diplomat said: “There will be a tasking that allows us to escalate but also to de-escalate if Russia pulls back its military.”

The new battle groups are a longer-term shift on top of ground and air reinforcements from Britain, the US, which is sending 2,000 troops to Romania, and other Nato allies….

French officials said that designing the new battle groups and their composition would take time after agreement by Nato ministers. “We are basically aiming for a deadline of a few months,” an official said.….

I agree. They won't have much to oppose the invading forces due to immediate loss of air superiority. That's what counts. As long as you've got air superiority no one would be so stupid to send in tanks and troops. This would end in a turkey shoot/can plinking with thousands of deaths and the loss of hundreds to thousand of tanks within a few hours
I agree. And this would be much more difficult for him to sustain over a longer period. His own population will quickly get dissatisfied over this.
We have to remeber that Ukraine is almost one third the population of Russia, so a totally different beast compared to Chechnya or Georgia.

I do not entirely agree. While personally he won't care much he would be forced by his own population to care in such a case.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ide/ar-AATVHpm

Strange that, The country was at peace before Russia invaded, so who has caused his supposed Genocide? Answers on a postcard..

As Henra said: "While personally he won't care much he would be forced by his own population to care in such a case" This is of course assuming the population know the truth. Presumably those brave enough to listen are getting some radio broadcasts from the West. However, any subversion or revolt would be brutally put down. Yet again, as repeatedly throughout history, the greatest number of sufferers will be the Russian people.

Do we know new invasion date?

Well I don't know what you know but I know what I know, so no. But then we would say that wouldn't we?

originally someone said that Putin had promised Xi he wouldn't invade during-the Winter Olympics

The invasion was probably delayed as the rapid response troops were needed to secure the oil fields in Kazakhstan , radio silence for a few days , no press , no media . In and out .
They should all be rested up by now and ready for a possible quick trip to Syria , Cuba or a remote chance of Venezuelan oil and gas fields summer holidaymakers 11 days in and out . All countries with a connection to oil and gas corporate wars over the same corporations oil and gas contracts .

He's probably going to wait until his beloved ice hockey team have either won or been knocked out - he wouldn't want to take the shine of their performance.

On the topic of international sporting competitions, I see Russia is scheduled to play Poland in the World Cup qualifier on March 22nd....in Moscow :eek:. Odds on this going ahead?

On friday Sweden will probably knock the ROC team out of the gold game. I doubt Putin cares much for a possible bronze.

Will Ukraine War Break Out? Watch China's Embassy
 

Will Ukraine War Break Out? Watch China's Embassy (msn.com)As Western governments, including the U.S., reduce their diplomatic presence in Kyiv, China's decision to keep its embassy staff in the city may be the clearest sign yet that it expects de-escalation.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the relocation of American diplomats from Kyiv to Lviv, on the country's border with Poland, on Monday, citing "the dramatic acceleration in the buildup of Russian forces."

The U.S. and its NATO allies are monitoring the movements of more than 100,000 Russian troops around Ukraine, with Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan continuing to warn that an invasion this week is possible.

China, which backed Russia's security concerns and opposed NATO expansion in an eye-catching joint statement earlier this month, has stopped short of remarking on Moscow's dramatic military deployments in recent weeks. But Beijing's most telling signal of calm could be its decision to keep its diplomatic staff in Kyiv and its citizens in Ukraine, while renewing calls for restraint and dialogue.

"China is closely monitoring the development of Ukraine's situation," China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told reporters in the Chinese capital on Monday. "The Chinese Embassy and Consulate-General in Ukraine are working normally, and the embassy has issued a consular advisory that reminds Chinese citizens and institutions to closely follow the developments and increase their safety awareness."



"The Chinese Foreign Ministry and our embassy in Ukraine will stay in close contact with Chinese citizens and institutions there, provide timely consular protection and assistance, and earnestly protect their safety and legitimate rights and interests," he said.

China is busy hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing while tensions flare on the Ukraine-Russia border.

By all accounts, a Russian invasion of Ukraine would concern the Chinese leadership by destabilizing Europe and the many economies undergoing post-pandemic recovery, but Beijing has so far refused to publicly acknowledge its leverage with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

On Tuesday, Wang dismissed suggestions that Beijing had asked Moscow not to invade Ukraine. "China's position on Ukraine is consistent, clear and stays unchanged. We believe all parties should sincerely abide by the Minsk II agreement and work toward the comprehensive resolution of the Ukraine crisis and related issues through dialogue and negotiation," said Wang.

The 2015 agreement aimed for, but failed to achieve, an end to the years-long conflict between Kyiv and Russian-speaking separatists in eastern Ukraine. "We call on all parties to remain rational and refrain from making moves that may escalate the tensions and play up and sensationalize the crisis," he said.

Beijing appeared to take issue with NATO members who continued to warn that an all-out invasion was highly likely, and who also criticized China for its perceived endorsement of Moscow's behavior. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has called China's "tacit support" for Russia "deeply alarming," while U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss told British radio station LBC that her government wasn't discounting the possibility of a Russian attack.

"I do not trust what they have said," Truss said on Tuesday. "We very much fear a false flag incident in the next few days, where the Russians pretend that there has been provocation from Ukraine in order to justify an invasion."

Wang responded without naming names. "Under the current circumstances, exaggerating and hyping up the possibility of warfare is not responsible behavior. Resorting readily to sanctions and pressure won't help to de-escalate the situation. Clamoring for bloc confrontation will only lead to the old path of the Cold War," he said.

"We call on all sides to adopt an equal and open attitude, and work for the sincere implementation of the Minsk II agreement through dialogue and negotiation, so as to create conditions for a political resolution of the Ukraine crisis."

There appeared to be cause for optimism on Tuesday when Russia's Defense Ministry announced the withdrawal of some forces from Ukraine's border, following the conclusion of military exercises. The repositioning of Russian troops—amid ongoing drills involving other elements—hadn't been independently verified by NATO members at the time of publication.

In response, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted: "We in Ukraine have a rule: we don't believe what we hear, we believe what we see. If a real withdrawal follows these statements, we will believe in the beginning of a real de-escalation."

Related Articles

• State Dept. Urges Americans to Avoid Moldova Due to Ukraine Situation
• Canada Loans Ukraine Nearly $400M as Nation Readies for Russian Invasion
• Ukraine's Zelenskyy Says Russian Attack is February 16, Adviser Backtracks

The probability of conflict is very high indeed, unfortunately. And it does not depend on Russia or Ukraine or various European “negotiators”. It does not even depend on the current POTUS. The US establishment and military-industrial complex have already prepared a package of sanctions of their dream and will do their best to implement them. The benefit is “N-fold” for them (and for the UK after the “Brexit”). To make problems and weaken Russian economy. But also weaken EU and especially Germany and make them buy liquid gas from the US (at much higher price) instead of using the pipelines from Russia. Keep demonizing Russia helps keep the NATO member states more united. Make defense budgets zoom. Distract population from internal economic problems (“war is at our door step, so some “collateral damage” is inevitable”). Etc, etc.

And it’s very pity that it’s very easy to start the fire in the current situation. It may start with a provocation staged by the Ukrainian side with the help of US and UK instructors. Could be enough to just send a “go” command from D.C. (not necessarily Pennsylvania avenue 1600) or Virginia to a local coordinator in the Donbass area, and the latter will command further to the Ukrainian forces nearby. Their dirty tricks are well-known. For example, blow up some chemicals (like white-helmet clowns did in Syria) and accuse separatists. Or it could an explosion in a power plant, dam, etc. Then a short hysteria in the Ukrainian and Western media with a refrain that “those separatists must die” and massive attack on Lugansk and Donetsk.

Russia will have no chance to escape preventing genocide of the Russian population in the area and respond. Lugansk and Donetsk will be immediately recognized as independent legal entities and their request to help will be instantly answered positively. The same sequence of events as it was with Georgia in 2008 when insane Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia and killed many Russian peacekeeping staff there.

Of the course the best moment to start this dirty and bloody game is not on Feb. 16 or a few days later. Again, like in 2008 they are probably waiting until the ongoing drills of the Russian forces are over and they return back to their bases.

The Ukrainian army keeps nearly 50% of its troops at a relatively short Donbass front line. While huge segments of the border in the East are not protected at all. If they were really expecting Russian tanks to invade, they would behave in a different way. This only means they are getting ready to attack Donbass.

A piece of black humour (from Ukraine) in the end:

A phone rings at a restaurant in Khreschatik (main street in Kiev).

- Hello, a marine platoon commander from Crimea here. May I please book a large table for thirty men for Feb 19 evening?

- Sorry sir, you are just 30 minutes late. We are fully booked for that date. The NN armory battalion commander from Belgorod has already reserved the whole restaurant. But if you can make it on 18th, we can arrange a room for your crowd.

Hope there will be no need for such bookings.

US Sub equipment from earlier reported incident
 

Russian military managed to seize secret equipment from an American nuclear submarine - Defence View

The Russian military discovered and successfully captured secret American equipment.

Secret equipment was found a few kilometers off the Russian island of Urup, apparently abandoned in a hurry by the crew of a U.S. Virginia-class nuclear submarine that was discovered in Russian territorial waters on February 12.

According to data obtained by the Avia.pro news agency, we are talking about a special device that actually saved the crew of an American nuclear submarine from being destroyed by Russian anti-submarine aircraft and ships of the Pacific Fleet. We are talking about a sonar countermeasure device, which was fired after the Russian side used some kind of weapon against the submarine.

According to media reports, the device shot down by the American nuclear submarine subsequently sank, but was successfully discovered by the Russian military. It is known that the device is intended only to counter an attack and does not represent any kind of weaponry.

Experts note that the technology used in the target simulator is not so new, but the equipment lost by the American nuclear submarine will definitely help the Russian military modernize its weapons in order to avoid losing its advanced submarine by enemy fire in the future.

Earlier the Russian Ministry of Defense claims one of its frigates chased a U.S. Navy Virginia-class submarine out of an area where the Russian navy was conducting military exercises in territorial waters near the island of Urup in the Kuril archipelago on Feb. 12, 2022, at 10:40 am Moscow time. The U.S. Navy says it never happened.

According to Russian MOD, The U.S. submarine was operating in an area where the Russian navy was conducting military exercises in Russian Federation national waters near the island of Urup in the Kuril archipelago at 10:40 am Moscow time, the MOD claimed.

The ministry claimed that its surface ship communicated with the crew of the submarine via underwater sonar communication systems in Russian and English. It said the U.S. boat was messaged, “You are in the Russian territorial waters right now! Surface immediately!”

The crew of the submarine ignored the communication, the Russians claim.

U.S. Navy officials flatly denied the assertions.

“There is no truth to the Russian claims of our operations in their territorial waters,” said U.S. Navy Capt. Kyle Raines, a spokesman for U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in a statement. “I will not comment on the precise location of our submarines, but we do fly, sail and operate safely in international waters.”

Asked if there was contact between the two ships in international waters, Raines said there was no encounter at all between the two forces.