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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

dead_pan 15th Feb 2022 08:28


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11184500)
BBC leading with Russian news of "some troops pulled back"

The ones with frostbite? Semi-seriously though, morale must be at rock-bottom.

ORAC 15th Feb 2022 08:41

Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?

Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .

In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.

If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.

rattman 15th Feb 2022 08:44


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11184511)
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?

If the rumors about the UK heading the European Security council comes true hes pushed UK back into europe

ORAC 15th Feb 2022 08:58


dead_pan 15th Feb 2022 09:01


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11184511)
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?

I'd be happy for us all to play along with the "Putin is a genius and has humiliated the West" narrative circulating in Russia if it means him saving face and standing his forces down. Of course, historians will view this moment as the point Putin's Russia finally realised the limits of its ambitions.

pasta 15th Feb 2022 09:02


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11184511)
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?

It's not about what we think he's achieved, but what his domestic press can claim he's achieved. That said, rt.com is reporting the "withdrawal" in surprisingly similar terms to the Western press; I wonder whether they're singing from the same sheet...

Not_a_boffin 15th Feb 2022 09:04


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11184511)
Baffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?

Russia’s written demands that NATO withdraw from Eastern Europe etc were dismissed as not being a starting point for negotiation because they were literally so extreme that there was nothing even able to be discussed - and all written replies from within Europe and the USA have affirmed that, with all being totally rejected .

In the meantime it has actually driven NATO to reinforce the Baltics, Norway and Poland, increased cooperation with Sweden and Finland and a determination to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. It also seems almost certain that Ukraine will continue to receive arm shipments increasing their defence capability at the same time as they build up their Turkish TB2 inventory.

If that was a victory then pyhrric would be an optimistic description of what has been achieved.

It's a PR war internally - "Rodina stronk" (see comments on "western hysteria" and "western propaganda disgraced" coming out of their spokesfolk) and externally - watch all the experts say how clever Putin has been having all the western leaders running around due to him. The factual narrative you allude to is likely to get lost in the noise. Note that the EU has just popped up (after a prolonged silence) to say that Russias security concerns must be addressed and commenting that Ukraine is not yet a member of NATO (hint, hint). REmains to be seen what Scholz and Macron actually said to him.

This has yet to play out.


NutLoose 15th Feb 2022 09:08

[QUOTEBaffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?][/QUOTE]

He has successfully taken over Bellarus without firing a shot.

Buster Hyman 15th Feb 2022 10:58

Geez I'd laugh if China made a run for Outer Manchuria right now! :}

Herod 15th Feb 2022 11:36

Buster: "Operation Barbarossa" with an oriental tinge

pasta 15th Feb 2022 11:58


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11184528)
[QUOTEBaffled by reports that Putin can back down because of “what he has achieved”. What has he achieved?]

He has successfully taken over Bellarus without firing a shot.[/QUOTE]

On the flipside, he's also made sustainable (non-fossil) energy more attractive to Western investors, albeit to a lesser extent than if he actually goes ahead with an invasion. The last thing the Russian economy needs is for Western Europe to wean itself off Russian gas...

Beamr 15th Feb 2022 12:04


Originally Posted by pasta (Post 11184618)

On the flipside, he's also made sustainable (non-fossil) energy more attractive to Western investors, albeit to a lesser extent than if he actually goes ahead with an invasion. The last thing the Russian economy needs is for Western Europe to wean itself off Russian gas...

Meanwhile in Finland, a brand new nuclear powerplant has been started and will be online by summer. And it is NOT a russian reactor. Very different from the central european countries which are closing theirs.

ORAC 15th Feb 2022 12:17

ABC News - Russia's parliament asks Putin to recognize breakaway regions in Ukraine


Russia's parliament voted for a law on Tuesday that calls on President Vladimir Putin to recognize two Russian-controlled breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent.

The measure is a formal appeal to Putin to recognize the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics, in an area of southeastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, where Russian-backed separatists forces have been battling the Ukrainian army since 2014.

Such recognition would open a path for Russia to formally annex the two regions as it did the Crimean Peninsula almost eight years ago. It's now up to Putin to decide whether to go through with it……

———————————-

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine said Kiev regards Moscow's recognition of the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass as Russia's withdrawal from the Minsk agreements.


ORAC 15th Feb 2022 12:21

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fc3065d91d.png

ORAC 15th Feb 2022 14:06

Here we go….



Beamr 15th Feb 2022 14:25

Must be this, someone claims to have found a home made bomb on a trash can and supposedly it's a plot of spies from Ukrainian government intending to cause mayhem.
Believe it if you want.

https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13715125

NutLoose 15th Feb 2022 18:21

The Sun, don’t laugh, is saying the War will start at 1am

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/176552...c_article=true


RUSSIA is set to invade Ukraine at 1am tomorrow with a massive missile blitz and 200,000 troops, according to US intelligence.

Highly placed sources said preparations to defend the besieged nation would continue - despite reports Putin was withdrawing some troops from the border.


US intelligence said the most likely time for Putin’s order was 3am (1am UK time).

American spooks believe Kyiv’s military and government command and control centres still have a barrage of air strikes before tanks roll over the border.

Russian claimed today to be pulling back around 10,000 troops from its Western and Southern to barracks after military drills.

But around 130,000 remain on Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders with around 40,000 pro-Putin forces in Belarus to the north.

But around 130,000 remain on Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders with around 40,000 pro-Putin forces in Belarus to the north.Another 30,000 pro-Russian separatists were facing Ukraine defenders in the captured Donbas enclave.

And preparations continued apace in Kyiv yesterday as anti-aircraft systems were seen moving into position along with columns of National Guard vehicles.

A military source said: “We cannot take anything that Russia says or does at face value. We have to prepare to defend ourselves.

I do hope Russia gets the biggest kicking since WW2

MPN11 15th Feb 2022 18:26

The Sun would have predicted Pearl Harbor.

MPN11 15th Feb 2022 18:34


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11184769)
I do hope Russia gets the biggest kicking since WW2

Sadly they lost 20m citizens whilst kicking Hitler, so I’m not sure where you’re going with that… If Russia gets ‘kicked’ the collateral damage to Ukraine and Europe (and further afield) is not something I wish to contemplate.

And your first allusion is a huge part of Emperor Vlad’s mindset. Mother Russia has been invaded too often in recent history, and buffer states are a ‘good thing’ in Vlad’s mind.

NutLoose 15th Feb 2022 19:28

I mean as in they lose so much armour, aircraft and materials and are so heavily sanctioned that they never ever consider this course of action ever again.


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