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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 31st Jan 2022 10:26


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11177664)
Anything can be faked, Superman does not fly in reality you know, even the cheapest of films can dress folks up in Uniforms while pouring items into a river.

My point exactly. The worrysome part is that this (and heaps of other claims) is being fed to the Russian audience to justify a war in case the decision is made.
The Russian media is harnessed to deliver Kremlins message, they do not put out any information that is not approved by Kremlin/Putin.

Lonewolf_50 31st Jan 2022 17:35


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11176892)
Even France is now moving closer to NATO.

1. France has been in NATO since it started.
2. There was a substantial period where France was "in but out" after DeGaulle withdrew France from the integrated military command structure, etc. (60's)
(IIRC that's when the HQ moved to Mons in Belgium)
3. When Sarkozy was in charge in France, France formally re-entered the integrated command structure.
That's over ten years ago. Newsflash for you, I guess. :p
4. NATO nations bicker and disagree over a multitude of things, and they also agree / cooperate on a multitude of things.
(That's as old as the 50's and bickering about monetary contributions/shares when Ike was the US president...)
Not sure how France can move "closer to NATO" given that they are a part of NATO ...

langleybaston 31st Jan 2022 18:00

If you had sat on the NATO committees that were the worst part of my job you would agree that France could move a lot closer to NATO. Or OTAN as they preferred it.

Maggie Island 31st Jan 2022 18:25

Here’s a decent write up on the French/Euro stance by a former NATO Supreme Commander of Europe. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...9NAs-Sc6jujH48

NutLoose 31st Jan 2022 18:51

German Eurofighters to Romania

https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/Germany_join_EAPR


RAMSTEIN, Germany – German Air Force Eurofighters will deploy to Romania under NATO's enhanced Air Policing to conduct an interoperability mission with the Italian Air Force under the existing 'Plug & Fight' series during February and March.

Within the concept of 'Plug & Fight' a small contingent of personnel and aircraft from one Ally conducts operations with another Ally by docking on existing structures, thereby further developing interoperability during a live deployment. A highly innovative concept, 'Plug & Fight' operations have been executed between the German and British Air Forces before in Romania as well as during Baltic Air Policing in Lithuania and Estonia.
The planned cooperation between the Italian and German Air Forces will enable Eurofighter aircrew and support staffs from the two nations to work closely together to launch enhanced Air Policing missions. This kind of event offers real benefit to all NATO personnel, as well as enhancing Allied interoperability, building trust and practising essential communication procedures. The Italian and German QRA fighters will maintain the same reaction times and ensure 24/7 readiness for NATO, but the additional aircraft and personnel will offer extra resilience to the Alliance.

Asturias56 1st Feb 2022 07:22

I'm rather surprised that NATO hasn't suggested that Transdinistria and Kalingrad might be re-united with the neighbouring countries.......................

Herod 1st Feb 2022 08:16

Asturias56. Have you people still not got the idea? NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. The geopolitics you suggest are not part of its remit.

Beamr 1st Feb 2022 11:57

Just out, Russia has sent out a note to Finland

HELSINKI, February 1./TASS/. The Russian Embassy has delivered a message to the Finnish Foreign Ministry from Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov regarding security guarantees, the diplomatic mission reported on Tuesday.

"The embassy has handed over the respective letter to the foreign minister of Finland. We are waiting for the reaction from the Finnish side," it said.

On January 30, Lavrov told the Voskresnoye Vremya (Sunday Time) program on Channel One that Russia was sending messages to NATO and the OSCE with a request to explain whether they intend to comply with the key security commitments "not to strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others".

https://tass.com/politics/1395817

This note has been confirmed by Finnish foreign ministry.

This has a startling remembrance with the Soviet behaviour up until the collapse of Soviet Union.
The guys in Kremlin really are a product of their era.
Wish the delivery of F35's could be speedier than planned.

NutLoose 1st Feb 2022 12:21

Call me old fashioned, but isn't that exactly what they are doing themselves by deploying troops into Belarus?

admikar 1st Feb 2022 15:38


Originally Posted by Herod (Post 11178105)
Asturias56. Have you people still not got the idea? NATO is a DEFENSIVE treaty. The geopolitics you suggest are not part of its remit.

That's a good one

Asturias56 1st Feb 2022 15:42

Same as Mr Putin - only defensive actions contemplated of course................... :ok:

beardy 1st Feb 2022 22:46

Russian Dagger by Virgin Cowles

Reviewed here

This book describes the duplicity, mendacity and incompetence of Imperial Russia and its objectives in attempting to expand its empire in the 19th century and early 20th century resulting in WW1. The parallels with today are remarkable and chilling including fake news, misinformation propaganda etc...

Beamr 2nd Feb 2022 05:34

Putin has publicly stated that Crimea is Russias soil and he is worrying that if Ukraine joins NATO and attacks Crimea, Russia would have to fight NATO.
First mistake: Crimea is part of Ukraine, not Russia. How could they venture an attack on their own soil?
Second mistake: NATO is a defence organization. If a NATO member starts a war with a non-NATO country, NATO is not obliged to assist.
How incredibly stupid does Putin think his own people are?

MOSCOW, February 1. /TASS/.

No one in the West has ever thought that if Ukraine is admitted to NATO and ventures an attack on Crimea, Russia will have to be at war with the alliance, Russian President Vladimir Putin said."[Crimea] is Russia’s sovereign territory. The matter is closed for us in this sense. Let us imagine that Ukraine is a NATO member and ventures such a combat operation. Are we supposed to be at war with NATO? Well, has anyone even given a thought to it? It looks like no one has," he said.

https://tass.com/politics/1396273

Imagegear 2nd Feb 2022 07:15

WAAAA,

Putin: "I'm always misunderstood: misunderstood about Crimea, misunderstood about Ukraine, misunderstood about NATO....

Yea right, the West once thought we were misunderstanding Russia but now we fully understand how misunderstandings are used.

Once bitten,

IG

Lonewolf_50 2nd Feb 2022 20:46


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11177871)
If you had sat on the NATO committees that were the worst part of my job you would agree that France could move a lot closer to NATO. Or OTAN as they preferred it.

We had a French {spy} *cough* {liaison officer} on our staff (mid to late 90's) and I am most familiar with some of the curious modes of French OTAN participation.
Just out of curiosity, when were you on the committees?
Did you get funding for ACCS approved?
It isn't just the French who might get a bit stubborn on any given NATO issue. Each of the 16 nations (then, about 30 now) has certain hot button issues that they'll use their veto on.
(And of course the Greeks and Turks were infamous in our HQ for their consistent "finger in the eye" approaches to things as innocuous as an annual exercise)

Originally Posted by Maggie Island (Post 11177879)
Here’s a decent write up on the French/Euro stance by a former NATO Supreme Commander of Europe. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...9NAs-Sc6jujH48

I served under him (the author) for a brief time, back before he was an admiral.
Sharp, professional, all around a most excellent naval officer.
Article makes sense. (As does Macron's initiative, if one puts one's self in French shoes)

Lonewolf_50 2nd Feb 2022 20:55


Originally Posted by beardy (Post 11178540)
Russian Dagger by Virgin Cowles
Reviewed here

Was she indeed a spinster? The name in the link is Virginia Cowles. :E
(PS: the review hardly recommends this book to the serious student of political history, but maybe it's worth a few bucks at second hand books)

ORAC 3rd Feb 2022 11:28



ORAC 4th Feb 2022 08:41


dead_pan 4th Feb 2022 11:19

Question is, is all of this activity normal? There's no indication how many intercepts they typically do on a daily/weekly basis.

Re the other thread, I'm beginning to think Vlad may have bottled it, him possibly being lent on by his fellow billionaires who are afraid of the impact of sanctions, also the challenge of achieving something meaningful in Ukraine without huge casualties and public outcry at home.


Usertim 5th Feb 2022 10:43


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11179723)
Question is, is all of this activity normal? There's no indication how many intercepts they typically do on a daily/weekly basis.

Re the other thread, I'm beginning to think Vlad may have bottled it, him possibly being lent on by his fellow billionaires who are afraid of the impact of sanctions, also the challenge of achieving something meaningful in Ukraine without huge casualties and public outcry at home.

Data about QRA responses to russian aircraft is easily findable at least for 2013-2019. I cannot post links but 7 or 8 times a year seems the normal.
More generally no one I know in Ukraine believes it is more than bluster. And No one I know In Russia actually cares, despite Pravda foaming at the mouth - latest article declaring Moscow bomb shelters are ready for use.
Vlad thinks everyone should have the same 1980s dinosaur head as him , and that he can use it to manipulate domestic issues, the world moved on, while russian citizenss may feel war is a possibility, for the most part it would be entirely unpalatable , at least to russians under the age of 40.


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