I think your good lady has the Russian psyche spot on for this individual.

As many have said, he's getting old, and this is his last spin of the wheel. Unless someone powerful is a position to dilute his ego, this will play out in blood.

IG

Unless a way is found in which he can retreat without losing face/appearing weak.
a feat which would be called - Diplomacy

On BBC News

Commercial air traffic to/from Russia has up until now been routing over Ukraine - until this morning - could be an indication of something about to happen

Moscow to Istanbul Pegasus A321 about to enter Ukraine airspace now.

Perhaps they were not on the circulation list

IG

Ominous….


https://www.rt.com/russia/549874-bre...on-evacuation/

Breakaway Ukrainian region orders evacuation

Ukrainian troops have been bolstered with arms supplies from Western nations and “are now prepositioned for combat and ready to take Donbass by force,” Denis Pushilin claimed in a statement on Friday, referring to his region and fellow breakaway entity, the Lugansk People’s Republic, by their collective name.

The Ukrainian rebels are expecting President Volodymyr Zelensky to order an offensive “in the nearest future.” Their military forces are prepared to fight, but civilians in rebel-controlled areas are at risk of being caught in the crossfire, the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic warned.

“That is why starting today, February 18, a mass evacuation of people to the Russian Federation has been organized,” he said, adding that vulnerable groups like women, children, and the elderly would be given priority.

Pushilin said Russian officials in the neighboring Rostov Region are expecting an inflow of evacuees and will provide them with what they need. There will be conditions at border crossings to expedite the process, he added. He urged people “to heed to the warning and take the right decision,” saying that the relocation would be temporary and would save lives.…..

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6aea82e91.jpeg
Lukashenko, who is in Russia, also talking about a potential conflict.

Lukashenko: "For the first time in 30 years we are on the edge of a conflict that will envelop the entire continent." Blames West for escalation.

It is going to be very difficult to maintain the peace in a country with so many weapons and so many deep divisions. Diversity can quickly become divisions. Once sectarian violence gets started it is very difficult to stop . The opportunities for sectarian violence have not been so great since an orthodox assassin killed a high Catholic Duke in Sarajevo.

Luhansk following the same line and evacuating civilians - both the clearing the way for troops to advance?

Evacuation has begun…

Let’s see how this develops…..

Live feed
 

Multiple reports of the same thing.

Vehicle identified as one used by one of the leaders on Tass , might be an assassination attempt ?

UK Embassy has relocated to Lviv from Kyiv, given ZZ175's recent movements between Brize Kyiv and Lviv, I hope this has been planned for some time rather than a reaction to very recent intelligence. https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/ukraine

A SAM callsign VC-25A from JB Andrews is about to land in Munich having passed a SAM callsign C-40B from Munich over Belgium. Airframe swap or political reinforcement for VP Harris?

Those sanctions had better be good, because they are going to be needed very soon. Very soon indeed.

If you are going to produce a false flag, better not to use social media….

https://www.axios.com/telegram-ukrai...260102a4a.html

Metadata from the messaging app Telegram indicates that pro-Russian separatist leaders created videos ordering "emergency" evacuations from eastern Ukraine two days ago, but posted them on Friday, Bellingcat first reported and Axios can confirm.

Why it matters: U.S. officials have for days now accused Russia of preparing to fabricate a pretext to invade Ukraine. The two-day-old metadata from the leaders of the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics could undermine claims that they ordered the evacuations due to an imminent threat of a Ukrainian offensive.

Putin has ordered the reserves to be called for training, effective as of date of publication (in essence, now).

https://tass.ru/obschestvo/13761793