Putin just needs to keep marching his troops up to the top of the hill and back down again to have an impact. Who would invest in the Ukraine now?

The Russians aren’t coming and they aren’t going.

Damn, the Sun got it wrong... So much for a quality newspaper...ahh well back to looking at page 3.. ;)

Please note: other newspapers are available and No, it do not read the Sun.

sharing those is not a reason to get personal. Once your argumentation reverts to getting personal you've lost it.

I disagree. Once the invasion the senile President keeps promised doesn’t maerialise, you’ve lost your argument.

Russian reply to the American response to their original demands which seems to be behind this entire crisis.

Letter is embedded (in Russian) in a TASS report in the thread. A translation by a native speaker would be appreciated.


https://tass.ru/politika/13744013

Not saying that it ain"t going to happen, it is simply the ridiculous spectacle of the various Pollys not only predicting the day but also the exact time !
Reminds me of the "Repent, the world will come to an end next Tuesday at 1.34pm" brigade, after which, when nada happens, they have to beetle home, hang up their Anoraks and wait for the next sign from the supposed higher powers :-)
Think Liz Truss currently comes Top of the Pops :-)
El G.

You have to look at both sides of the “propaganda” and somewhere in the middle ground will be the truth.

Don't be ridiculous.
I value Oracs posts - she's pretty balanced and objective and has a service record to back her insights.

Everything seems prepared. Fighters, attack helicopters, artillery pieces, troops, bridges, hospitals and blood supplies.
Putin has put everything in place for an invasion and of course he knows that the West see what is happening.

You then must ask why would he do this in the full knowledge that the eye in the sky is watching. Either it is an elaborate bluff or he is ready to rock.

He also undoubtedly knows about preparation fatigue. Troops cannot be ready to pounce for an indefinite time. He cannot tell the troops on the ground that they definitely will or won’t being going in, because it will leak…and they are all probably as scared and confused as we are. They have homes and families - a reality he cannot ignore indefinitely.

He has 2 options in my opinion- withdraw (maybe not immediately but at some point), or attack.

Here is the thing - and my wife is Russian born although not raised there but she has many relatives who are born, raised and live there so she knows their psyche… Putin would rather die than appear weak IHHO - he will roll the dice and attack.

My bet is Saturday. It will be grim, bloody and will not stay constrained in Ukraine. He cannot leave this earth without a determined attempt to bring Russia back to the force it was within the USSR. It will become WWIII in short order.

I would be utterly delighted to be wrong.

we all have a service record - it’s kind of in the forum title. It remains to be seen if she’s right, but I’ll await an apology when she isn’t.

I hope her service record was based on more than Twitter?

An apology for what? reporting what’s happening on the ground and in the air?

...
MGD - Very much more than Twitter, IIRC. ... AFC (or AFDO if you prefer) In the days before BSM - such a milllennial title (though no less important a job) don't you think ?

I always look for ORAC's posts to keep me up to date on important subjects, as invariably informative and inclusive. Mostly stuff I could never find for myself.

LFH
...

Totally and utterly agree, I even go to the hassle described elsewhere to read her links.

I did wonder if some of his troops relocation out of the “front” line were simply to R and R for those that have been on the front for a considerable time

Any particular intel that makes you think it will be Saturday?

What, you ma6 ask, does a BMD use a parachute for?

“Like its predecessor, the BMD-4 is capable of parachuting from aircraft with the entire crew and passengers inside the vehicle which allows target engagement after landing to be instant. An Il-76 is able to transport two of these vehicles at a time in comparison to three BMD-1s and BMD-2s.”

Tula is the home air base for a regiment of IL-76 transport.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klokovo

Latest Sunday when olympic ice hockey tournament will be over. (Just joking).

My bet is that Putin will try to attach left bank of Dnieper to Russia. First of all he needs to solve the unbearable problem with water for Crimea. Also if we look at his article from July 2021 as a manifest, this "Novorossiya" thing is the irreducible minimum he considers a true Russian territory. Remember the "corridor" to East Prussia Hitler demanded?

West will not intervene by military means other than sending arms to Kiev. Russia will try to subdue Ukraine by the means of hybrid war even after this hot war but will not try to control the western parts of the country because they've learned a lesson or two in Afghanistan and Chechnya. You can't win a war over territory where the population doesn't consider your culture as a desired value.



https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5f9a7aa379.jpg

My bet is that nothing will happen.