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Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11233345)
Germany is conscious that it has recent history with Russia, unlike the rest of Europe. consequently they had a political consensus to deal with Russia as a friendly country after the Soviet Union collapsed.
I don't think that has changed, despite the current Ukraine conflict. Russia will still be there after this war is over, so Germany is engaged in damage control for now. . (1) Germany's "renewable tunnel vision" and consequent shedding of coal and nuclear capacity has them in a bind. They are now reliant solely on gas (principally sourced from RU) as a backbone for their grid to mitigate the intermittency of renewables. The cost of the transition means that electricity prices in Germany are already amongst the highest in Europe and that has caused significant social tension; the term "energy poverty" was coined in Germany. If/when Russian supply tapers down, that social tension will ramp-up dramatically, and when Germans look across their borders to NL, France, Italy, Austria etc... coping better with the gas shortfall, they will invariably vent said anger on their government at the next elections. (2) The German economic model is disproportionately reliant on its high-performing industrial core. Turns out that industrial core is addicted to cheap gas: accounting for 36% of overall national consumption, of which 11% are used as a direct input into chemical production and can likely not be substituted at all (unlike electricity and heating use-cases). Limited - and more expensive - future gas supply is going to ultimately force structural changes to its economic model with the economic pain / uncertainty that comes along with that. Personally I feel that its pragmatism around these two issues that is driving the (in)decision making in Berlin, as the countries political and economic future is strongly coupled with the outcome of the Ukrainian situation. |
Brilliant thread, full of interesting nuggets….
Original thread with all its links Roll-up… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...165527552.html |
Originally Posted by GlobalNav
(Post 11233872)
Let’s see. North and South Korea, north and South Viet Nam, East and West Germany?
Didnt WW2 and the Cold War start with Germany and Communist Powers trying absorb bordering countries? |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11233947)
Brilliant thread, full of interesting nuggets….
Original thread with all its links Roll-up… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...165527552.html new weapons for UAV's |
This has to be cheaper in the long run, because if we all didn't, we would then need to bolster our troops in Europe and the Far East and start on ramping up our military capability with the costs involved therein, far better to spend an outlay now and break the back of the Russian conventional forces thuse thwarting their ambitions for a couple of decades.
As I said before, any aid is often spent on providing weapons to Ukraine, that means American jobs and American revenue, the USA is not buying foreign weapons per se, but home grown weaponary and buying them in the USA to provide to Ukraine, they are in effect pumping those funds back into the USA economy. The cynic in me would also say it also allows the USA and the rest of NATO to remove life critical items from their stocks and replenish with fresh items. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11234047)
This has to be cheaper in the long run, because if we all didn't, we would then need to bolster our troops in Europe and the Far East and start on ramping up our military capability with the costs involved therein, far better to spend an outlay now and break the back of the Russian conventional forces thuse thwarting their ambitions for a couple of decades.
As I said before, any aid is often spent on providing weapons to Ukraine, that means American jobs and American revenue, the USA is not buying foreign weapons per se, but home grown weaponary and buying them in the USA to provide to Ukraine, they are in effect pumping those funds back into the USA economy. The cynic in me would also say it also allows the USA and the rest of NATO to remove life critical items from their stocks and replenish with fresh items. |
Verified by photographic evidence, losses so far
Ukraine - 1069, of which: destroyed: 502, damaged: 25, abandoned: 35, captured: 507of whichUnmanned Aerial Vehicles (23, of which destroyed: 19, captured: 4)Russia - 3798, of which: destroyed: 2120, damaged: 75, abandoned: 292, captured: 1311of whichUnmanned Aerial Vehicles (74, of which destroyed: 40, captured: 34) https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...ukrainian.html reported by the site as a single days losses for Russian forces, and remember, these are only the ones that have been verified by photographic evidence. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f700b05b2f.png |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11234047)
This has to be cheaper in the long run, because if we all didn't, we would then need to bolster our troops in Europe and the Far East and start on ramping up our military capability with the costs involved therein, far better to spend an outlay now and break the back of the Russian conventional forces thuse thwarting their ambitions for a couple of decades.
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11234047)
As I said before, any aid is often spent on providing weapons to Ukraine, that means American jobs and American revenue, the USA is not buying foreign weapons per se, but home grown weaponary and buying them in the USA to provide to Ukraine, they are in effect pumping those funds back into the USA economy. The cynic in me would also say it also allows the USA and the rest of NATO to remove life critical items from their stocks and replenish with fresh items.
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11234052)
But would Europe reciprocate if things did kick off in Taiwan etc? Maybe those countries around the periphery, but the likes of France and Germany? It wouldn't be seen as 'our' fight.
Though, sanctions, etc, against China can certainly be expected. Not to say, the current mood is already against expanding China-EU business. Sanctions against China might be far more effective than against Russia, since what China delivers to the EU, can also be produced locally in the EU (though at a higher cost, but also a higher quality). Who needs iPhones anyway ? |
Russia purported to have the ability to get around the black sea blockade.
H I Sutton - Covert Shores |
WOW, A Russian diplomat to the UN resigns and really lays into Putin and all the lies... let's hope he makes it to 42.
A veteran Russian diplomat to the UN Office at Geneva says he handed in his resignation before sending out a scathing letter to foreign colleagues inveighing against the “aggressive war unleashed” by President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. Boris Bondarev, 41, confirmed his resignation in a letter delivered on Monday morning at the Russian diplomatic mission after an official passed on his English-language statement to The Associated Press (AP). “For 20 years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year,” he wrote, alluding to the date of Russia’s invasion. Reached by phone, Mr Bondarev - a diplomatic counsellor who has focused on Russia’s role in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva after postings in places like Cambodia and Mongolia - confirmed he handed in his resignation in a letter addressed to ambassador Gennady Gatilov. A spokesman for the mission did not immediately respond to calls and a text message from the AP seeking comment. The resignation amounts to a rare - if not unprecedented - public admission of disgruntlement about Russia’s war in Ukraine among the Russian diplomatic corps, at a time when Mr Putin’s government has sought to crack down on dissent over the invasion and sought to quell conflicting narratives from the government line about how the “special military operation” - as it is officially known in Russia - is proceeding. “It is intolerable what my government is doing now,” Mr Bondarev told the AP. “As a civil servant, I have to carry a share of responsibility for that, and I don’t want to do that.” Mr Bondarev said he had not received any reaction yet from Russian officials, but added: “Am I concerned about the possible reaction from Moscow? I have to be concerned about it.” Asked if some colleagues felt the same, he added: “Not all Russian diplomats are warmongering. They are reasonable, but they have to keep their mouths shut.” He suggested his case could become an example. “If my case is prosecuted, then if other people want to follow, they would not,” he suggested. In his English-language statement, which he said he emailed to about 40 diplomats and others, Mr Bondarev said those who conceived the war “want only one thing - to remain in power forever, live in pompous tasteless palaces, sail on yachts comparable in tonnage and cost to the entire Russian Navy, enjoying unlimited power and complete impunity”. He railed against the growing “lies and unprofessionalism” in the Russian foreign ministry and took particular aim at foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who he said in “18 years, he went from a professional and educated intellectual ... to a person who constantly broadcasts conflicting statements and threatens the world (that is, Russia too) with nuclear weapons!” “Today, the ministry of foreign affairs is not about diplomacy. It is all about warmongering, lies and hatred.” Mr Bondarev told the AP he had no plans to leave Geneva. Hiller Neuer, executive director of the advocacy group UN Watch, said simply: “Boris Bondarev is a hero.” “Bondarev should be invited to speak in Davos this week,” he added. “And the US, the UK and the EU should lead the free world in creating a programme to encourage more Russian diplomats to follow and defect, by providing protection, financial security and resettlement for diplomats and their families.” https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....85cafc71b.jpeg |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11234070)
Russia purported to have the ability to get around the black sea blockade.
H I Sutton - Covert Shores |
Friendly reminder: please stay on topic.
China/Taiwan are not on topic for this threadl If you all want to discuss that there's already a thread about the South China Sea here on Military Aviation. Thank you all in advance. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11234097)
WOW, A Russian diplomat to the UN resigns and really lays into Putin and all the lies... let's hope he makes it to 42.
Russian diplomat to the UN quits and pens scathing letter slamming Putin’s ‘aggressive war in Ukraine’ (msn.com) https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....85cafc71b.jpeg https://twitter.com/HillelNeuer/stat...541057/photo/1 |
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
(Post 11234128)
Ships can sail along rivers? Who knew?
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Originally Posted by etudiant
(Post 11233883)
So the current disaster is not solely due to Putin's paranoia, but also to his desire to end an anti Russian pogrom at his border.
[...] The end state desired by the Ukraine government is full control of its post USSR land, presumably free to continue ethnic cleansing of their Russian inhabitants https://www.iri.org/wp-content/uploa...26,%202014.pdf The number of casualties in this conflict has been going down year after year since 2014, and most of the recent deaths have been caused by mines planted by the separatists. So there was no legitimate reason for the large scale invasion Russia launched this year: https://i.imgur.com/nyisP3B.png So, as international observers found no evidence supporting Putin's claims of genocide, and as you keep repeating those claims, would you care to provide some evidence for them? |
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11233854)
Sad effects of Putins war, I hope they prevent it :sad:
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/s...48736194191360 |
Not sure there's much danger of Photoshopped pixels escaping and killing everything ... El Grifo |
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