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Originally Posted by wondering
(Post 11239593)
Gas dependency goes both ways. Russia can´t just turn on and off its gas wells with the flip of a switch. If Russia decides to stop supplying gas to Europe completely, wells have to be shut down and secured. Not that simple. Same for reopening. The question is who gets hurt more. I reckon, we will find out this coming winter.
If the Economist article Uncle Fred provided (a page or so up from here) is on target, the pain will begin this autumn as food supplies get tight. Food insecurity tends to have political ripple effects in any country, and a lot of countries are looking at the hold up of Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments with growing concern. OK, pet peeve, sorry to introduce this: I'd like to see the American 'ethanol in the gas' mania reduced considerably, and have for a long time. I am not sure if product for this year can be diverted to food versus fuel buyers, but it might take a little bit of pressure off of the food crunch if more of the corn went to food and not ethanol production. However, those contracts are probably long term in nature and may not be as fungible/liquid as one might hope such that it allows a shift in end usage. (Do not know enough about that aspect of commodity economics to offer any further support for my idea, that's going to take a lot of research). |
I’ll just point out that,the moment Poland is happy, Ukraine can totally cut off Hungary’s pipeline deliveries anyway - terrible how Russia missiles hit those pumping stations like that….
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Here’s re the 18 billion
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/ UPDATE sanctions now passed as Hungary votes yes https://hungarytoday.hu/foreign-mini...ntions-passed/ |
very good assessment. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11239631)
very good assessment.
What the major referred to as the cauldron is getting coverage in the US Media. (That may be paywalled) Excerpts: Under cover of near-constant artillery fire, Russian troops are advancing on Ukrainian defenders in the city, pushing them back to the Siverskyi Donets river, beyond which lies the town of Lysychansk, already under heavy bombardment. The battle for Donbas is inflicting heavy casualties on both sides. Russia’s advance has been slow despite its quantitative advantage in artillery and munitions. Ukraine’s toll of dead and injured soldiers has led Kyiv to appeal to its Western supporters for long-range weapons that would allow it to hit back at Russia’s artillery. The U.S. has promised to send Ukraine guided rocket systems to boost the defenders’ firepower. Russian forces are also attempting to advance on Lysychansk from the west and south in a bid to encircle the area while avoiding a perilous attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets...Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian offensive in Donbas is exposing differences among countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that are sending Kyiv military and other aid... Germany and France, which have sent limited heavy weapons so far, are skeptical about whether Ukraine can realistically drive the invading Russian army back to its positions when the war began on Feb. 24. Berlin and Paris are particularly anxious to avoid an accidental escalation into a direct clash with Russia, and have called for a cease-fire and a negotiated end to a war that is adding to economic strains in Europe and world-wide...President Biden has vowed to continue arming Ukraine so that it can achieve the strongest possible position on the battlefield before negotiating a settlement to end the war. (Reporters = Matthew Luxmoore at [email protected] and Marcus Walker at [email protected]) As the cauldron gets a narrower neck, what air assets can Ukraine provide to cover a withdrawal (mentioned by the Major in the brief) should that become necessary. If Ukraine can't stop the movement of the pincer arms, at what point does one withdraw so that the 10-12,000 troops aren't trapped/lost/captured? As to the French and German "skepticism" that was mentioned seems to me like a self licking ice cream cone. OK, not sending heavy weapons, and "we are skeptical you can push them back to 24 Feb borders. My thought, in trying to see that from a Ukraine perspective, would be: "Send the heavy weapons, or we lose more turf. The 'push 'em back' can't happen unless we stop them first. How about a little help here, eh?" The human cost to Ukraine has been eye watering. “Around 12 million of our citizens have been forced to leave their homes because of the war. More than five million went abroad. And the vast majority of them are women and children,” Mr. Zelensky said in a late night video address on Wednesday. |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11239622)
Here’s re the 18 billion
https://hungarytoday.hu/pm-orban-eu-council-president-michel-russia-oil-embargo/ The options for landlocked countries are always limited, securing their own pipeline is ultimately a great success for Hungary Kft. so Orban will keep his followers. Mixed emotions truly. Playing the card with Kirill, of all the Putin's bootlickers was extremely bad taste. Why should a pious leader have anything to be cutoff from in the first place? Not talking filtry corrupt rich, as clergymen on occasion do, but being filtht corrupt rich abroad. :yuk: |
Well you couldn’t make this up a couple of years ago, a Russian built and supplied to the USA Mi-17 in Afghan camouflage sporting Ukrainian markings and fighting against the Country that supplied them
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11239190)
What, did we shoot all of our normal MLRS rockets? Peter, I do not understand that pithy remark. Can you offer a more detailed explanation?
I have a vague recollection about people getting all up in arms over the sub munitions that MLRS distributes over a battlefield (or can, depends on what is in the rocket), and I think that the Israelis came in for a lot of criticism for something similar to that back in the 00's when they had a scrap with Hezbollah, as regards sub munitions. The website showed the stockpiles and only the medium range rockets were still held. However other countries may still have <70km stockpiles. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11239610)
I think that the pain will start to manifest before winter time.
If the Economist article Uncle Fred provided (a page or so up from here) is on target, the pain will begin this autumn as food supplies get tight. Food insecurity tends to have political ripple effects in any country, and a lot of countries are looking at the hold up of Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments with growing concern. OK, pet peeve, sorry to introduce this: I'd like to see the American 'ethanol in the gas' mania reduced considerably, and have for a long time. I am not sure if product for this year can be diverted to food versus fuel buyers, but it might take a little bit of pressure off of the food crunch if more of the corn went to food and not ethanol production. However, those contracts are probably long term in nature and may not be as fungible/liquid as one might hope such that it allows a shift in end usage. (Do not know enough about that aspect of commodity economics to offer any further support for my idea, that's going to take a lot of research). Not much chance of that though - making all his 'not my fault' claims total BS. The US was a net oil exporter before Sleepy Joe - not so much now. |
Originally Posted by MikeSnow
(Post 11239569)
What about the part of the country that doesn't agree with Orban? The election results were 52.52% for his party, 36.90% for the oposition. A ratio of about 3:2. And that's with his control of the media. If there was freedom of the press in Hungary, I doubt he would have won. The fact is that the EU, with a population of almost 450 million, has its sanctions package blocked by a leader that was voted by about 3 million people, or 0.66% of the EU population. That doesn't seem right
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11239616)
I’ll just point out that,the moment Poland is happy, Ukraine can totally cut off Hungary’s pipeline deliveries anyway - terrible how Russia missiles hit those pumping stations like that….
Moving on, a little, Hungary (like other States) is supporting huge numbers of refugees, if fuel is cut off how can we continue to do that? One of the paradoxes of this situation is that Ukraine is demanding enormous amounts of support, both for the war and for the (hopefully) subsequent rebuild) wihile demanding that those who they expect to fund this should trash their economies. |
Originally Posted by Expatrick
(Post 11239734)
.... Romanian (that advanced, prosperous, incorruptible State) prejudices.
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11239744)
Well played. :D I had to get a tissue to blot the sarcasm that began dripping off of the screen. :}
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https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-06-02/
Sweden to supply more military aid including anti-ship missiles to Ukraine Stockholm June 2 (Reuters) - Sweden will provide Ukraine with more economic aid and military equipment, including anti-ship missiles, rifles and anti-tank weapons, Finance Minister Mikael Damberg and Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist said on Thursday. "The proposals that are submitted (to parliament) mean that allocated funds for the central government budget will increase by SEK 1.0 billion ($102 million) in 2022," the Nordic country's finance ministry said in a statement. "In solidarity with Ukraine, and as part of the international response to Russia's actions, the government sees a continuing need to support Ukraine," it said… |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 11239725)
I'd like to see our POTUS stop bowing to the environmental lobby and open up all those oil and gas leases that he cancelled since the inauguration.
Not much chance of that though - making all his 'not my fault' claims total BS. The US was a net oil exporter before Sleepy Joe - not so much now. If this war has one good thing to come out of this lousy war, it will be to force the west to embrace alternate energy sources and green solutions enabling them to wean themselves off Russian as well as other countries oil and gas. The other thing that will hopefully come out of all of this is Russia will realise that unlike the time when they rolled through countries like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia etc, the realisation will sink In that, that time has now gone and they will fight back. I also cannot get over the Russians sense that they will never lose wars… they lost In Afghanistan big time. |
Originally Posted by Expatrick
(Post 11239742)
I am sorry, could you please explain this one to me? Thank you.
Moving on, a little, Hungary (like other States) is supporting huge numbers of refugees, if fuel is cut off how can we continue to do that? One of the paradoxes of this situation is that Ukraine is demanding enormous amounts of support, both for the war and for the (hopefully) subsequent rebuild) wihile demanding that those who they expect to find this should trash their economies. We should be grateful for the gift of example their budding democracy gave us......and standing against this evil genocide and not acting like pissweak almond milk latte sippers with our eyes averted. Friendly reminder: we can disagree without being disagreeable. Carry on. T28B |
The purpose of sanctions, as explained clearly by the Hungarian FM is to "hurt those who we wish to punish".
I notice that no one has reacted to the information I gave previously about Serbia. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11239744)
Well played. :D I had to get a tissue to blot the sarcasm that began dripping off of the screen. :}
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Originally Posted by macmp419
(Post 11239050)
Good news, it is only going to be a matter of months :ugh:
One Ukrainian journalist is less than impressed it would seem. On a positive note: Once Ukarine has these systems no enemy aircraft will survive within a radius of ~20miles. No matter which altitude. Extremely lethal. |
Originally Posted by Expatrick
(Post 11239767)
And, of course, the UK is really doing its best for the refugees (not).
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