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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 31st Mar 2022 17:06

The more I see of late with suspect nuclear armed aircraft incursion into Sweden and the demanding Rubbles for fuel, one is getting the feeling he wants the west to become embroiled because he cannot sell his Western / NATO narrative at the moment to the Russian people.

macmp419 31st Mar 2022 17:14


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11208608)
Well, although I didn't directly pose the question, I am wondering about the numbers. In all the discussions about the war I am certain that the number 900 000 has been quoted, but I don't recall if that was the Russian Army or total armed forces. In either case, it means that if the current class of recruits isn't discharged, then there is going to be an increase of over 10% in the army. Does anybody believe that any army could deal with that kind of influx over just three months ? This must mean further turmoil in the Russian Army at a time when they absolutely don't need it. On the other hand if the current conscripts are discharged, then there are going to be tens of thousands who will undoubtedly have heard from other recruits/transfers/rumours about the war, or actually been there themselves. They will spread out across Russia and obviously tell their families and friends. Whatever truth they choose to tell will undoubtedly be believed 100% and it probably won't match the Kremlin line.

This could potentially start an upsurge of public resentment against Putin/the war.


Some interesting background information here regarding Russian conscripts, numbers and the "rules" of their deployment.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...d-mobilization

The current intake numbers seem to be broadly consistent with previous years.

I genuinely hope that your last statement re upsurge of public resentment proves to be correct :ok:

NutLoose 31st Mar 2022 19:05

Russia has apparently abandoned Hostomel airport.


NutLoose 31st Mar 2022 19:18

U.K. to give Ukraine long range artillery and armoured vehicles.



Foxhounds or Landrovers?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...vacuation.html

peter we 31st Mar 2022 21:22

As90 would be vastly more useful. Krab variant even more so.
UK ordered the K2 as a replacent last week.

tartare 1st Apr 2022 00:27

Unless their account has been hacked, or this is misinformation - someone in the Ukrainian Air Force appears to have had a major brain snap.
They're now asking for F-15s and F-16s!
How on earth would that work?!
Ignoring all the logistical support issues - is it even remotely plausible that a MiG-29 pilot could even learn to drive an F-16 or F-15 in 3-4 weeks as they claim, let alone learn how to fight with one?
How long would it take to become comfortable with effects of controls, inertia, power, energy management...?
Noting also this very informative article - interesting that the USAF relationship with the UAF goes back 25 years.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...fighter-pilots
and this:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-pilots-on-now
Just seems like completely wishful thinking.

Buster Hyman 1st Apr 2022 03:10


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11208693)
U.K. to give Ukraine long range artillery and armoured vehicles.

They're getting Bushmasters from us. :ok:

https://www.news.com.au/technology/i...8ddd054ef7e477

West Coast 1st Apr 2022 03:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11208624)
The more I see of late with suspect nuclear armed aircraft incursion into Sweden and the demanding Rubbles for fuel, one is getting the feeling he wants the west to become embroiled because he cannot sell his Western / NATO narrative at the moment to the Russian people.

Trying to understand what you’re saying. Are you of the belief his domestic audience isn’t supporting him?

Beamr 1st Apr 2022 06:15

And I thought the Russians with their T72's are like bringing a bow against artillery but the Russkies have obviously saved the best gear for themselves, their allies then get the really old stuff:
the Russians have equipped the Donbass separatists with 19th century weapons like Mosin-Nagant M91/30 :D
More "modern" weaponry is the PTRS-41 anti tank rifle of WW2.


tartare 1st Apr 2022 06:36

Ukraine Mil-24s taking the fight to Russia:
Video of a rocket strike on Belgorod oil depot, 40 kms over the border.

jolihokistix 1st Apr 2022 06:51

Re: Is Ukraine about to have another war?

Part II
The weathercock has turned. A sea change even. Abandoning Chernobyl is deeply symbolic, especially with a written guarantee. Any light artillery lobbed onto Kyiv suburbs must be to cover this catchall 'redeployment' of Russian forces.

Asturias56 1st Apr 2022 07:17

" In either case, it means that if the current class of recruits isn't discharged, then there is going to be an increase of over 10% in the army. Does anybody believe that any army could deal with that kind of influx over just three months ? "

This and the Winter Olympics were two of the drivers on timing if you go back to the start of the thread - the other was the weather.

Having spent 6 weeks so far the Russians are faced with either sending home a bunch of people who have served their time or holding on to them - which will not improve morale to put it mildly. It really is a Grade 1 mess

Davef68 1st Apr 2022 07:59


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11208749)
As90 would be vastly more useful. Krab variant even more so.
UK ordered the K2 as a replacent last week.

They did? Not seen that publicly announced. It's only due to go to RFP this year (I presume you mean K9, K2 is a tank)

skua 1st Apr 2022 08:31

Ukrainian AF now requesting the West sends tham F-15s, or F-16s, as per their Twitter account yesterday. They reckon they can train up their pilots to fly them in 2-3 weeks.Rather puts MFTS into perspective!https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...EqO_normal.jpg
Ukrainian Air Force
@KpsZSU

Frostchamber 1st Apr 2022 08:36


Originally Posted by Davef68 (Post 11208957)
They did? Not seen that publicly announced. It's only due to go to RFP this year (I presume you mean K9, K2 is a tank)

That's what I was thinking. Last I heard contract was due in 2025 with initial deliveries in 2029. I believe its the K9A2 (updated version with improvements) in the frame for the UK.

dead_pan 1st Apr 2022 08:40


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11208693)
U.K. to give Ukraine long range artillery and armoured vehicles.

As I understand its the same sort of deal as for the S300s a few weeks back i.e. Ukraine to be supplied with legacy Soviet equipment from other central & eastern European NATO member states, with which they are familiar, this kit sent being back-filled with newer equipment from the likes of the UK & US (e.g. stuff we have in storage or are soon to replace, that type of thing).

Alas we're not about to send them our AS90s (yet...)

Usertim 1st Apr 2022 08:46


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11208973)
As I understand its the same sort of deal as for the S300s a few weeks back i.e. Ukraine to be supplied with legacy Soviet equipment from other central & eastern European NATO member states, with which they are familiar, this kit sent being back-filled with newer equipment from the likes of the UK & US (e.g. stuff we have in storage or are soon to replace, that type of thing).

Alas we're not about to send them our AS90s (yet...)

I don't think we have any soviet era equipment to donate lol. I envisioned it as probably meaning cougar etc mraps left over from afghanistan , similar to australia which has stated they will provide Bushmaster IFVs. Idk about artillery though.

dead_pan 1st Apr 2022 08:52


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11208927)
" In either case, it means that if the current class of recruits isn't discharged, then there is going to be an increase of over 10% in the army. Does anybody believe that any army could deal with that kind of influx over just three months ? "

I reckon Russia will try its usual tactic of trying to fudge this i.e. keep those who are forward deployed in situ, and try to swop out those which aren't. It appears their broader plan is to call up experienced reservists, and the entirety of the Wagner operation, to try and generate some momentum on the ground.

dead_pan 1st Apr 2022 08:54


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11208978)
I don't think we have any soviet era equipment to donate lol. I envisioned it as probably meaning cougar etc mraps left over from afghanistan , similar to australia which has stated they will provide Bushmaster IFVs. Idk about artillery though.

Interesting. I guess this kit has proved its worth and we don't have any immediate plans to use it...

Beamr 1st Apr 2022 08:57

the Russians are really showing how much they care for their "brothers" they are "saving" in Ukraine. If this is what Russians do to their beloved neighbours "saving them from nazis", what would they do attacking the west they hate and despise infinately?
The Russians (and not just Pootin) need to be stopped. The Russian people need to suffer just as Ukrainians do. Your country attacks, your country does all the atrocities to civilians in Ukraine, you need to suffer as much as the Ukrainians do. The Germans were walked through the concentration camps in 1945. The Russians need to be walked through Mariupol, Harkov and other cities.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europ...at_campaign=64


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