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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

SLXOwft 28th Feb 2022 16:46


Originally Posted by Fitter2 (Post 11192071)
admikar

My history is a bit vague here - was the intervention in the post-Yugoslavian civil wars not under the auspices of the UN? The 'West' may have some issues with the talking shop in New York, but we do step up when the world asks us to.

Unlike the UN authorized intervention in admikar's declared country of residence, Operation Allied Force/Nobel Anvil was a 'Humanitarian Intervention' by NATO alone as it was clear Russia and probably China would veto any resolution for action against Milosevic for refusing to sign the Rambouillet accords. Although they appear to some to have been drafted with the intention of making them unsignable they were very mild compared with Putin's demands on Ukraine. One assumes that NATO did so in the firm belief Russian support for Milosevic would be only words not active force.

I'll switch to passive mode for the time being in expectation of ARMs.

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 17:16


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192323)
Reduce, Re-use, Re-cycle.

Must have cost a bomb to put on her insurance…

I’ll get my coat…

NutLoose 28th Feb 2022 17:17


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11192315)
The future is a very weird place. Ukrainians are uploading videos on TikTok about how to drive abandoned or captured Russian military vehicles.…


i hope they do a quick paint job on the markings before driving off.

Beamr 28th Feb 2022 17:25


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11192254)
Finland has announced it is sending lethal arms to Ukraine in support.

yes, that is including
1500 NLAW's
2500 assault rifles plus ammo
70000 food rations (battlefield)

SLXOwft 28th Feb 2022 17:42


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192321)
Oh well, fair enough, if somebody hasn't signed their monica on a piece of paper to say that only bad-boys use them , then we're free and clear ! Open season, the glorious 28th rides again ! Put another two-pence in the Jacob Rees Mogg nesting doll.

...apart from: trouble with international law is unlike domestic law it requires the agreement of some unsavoury parties. A number of otherwise civilised and liberal countries are given to stretching the boundaries.

If there is ever a tribunal I suspect Russia's failure to declare war in spite of its mealy mouthed 'special operation' excuse will be seen as a a war crime as a clear breach of the 1907 Hague Convention relative to the opening of hostilities.

The laws of war are in some instances farcical: strictly speaking since 1907 the launching of projectiles and explosives from balloons, 'or by other new methods of a similar nature' has been a war crime for the US and UK but only in the case of a war between themselves with no allies on either side. They were the only two countries to sign and ratify what was an extension to the five year prohibition under the Declaration of 1899 which they had refused to sign.

langleybaston 28th Feb 2022 17:47


Originally Posted by Mogwi (Post 11192242)
Unfortunately the Russians did not sign up to the ban on custard bombs.

Did he really say that?

Irony?
inebriation?
predictive text?

Either way, they should be allowed under the Geneva Convention. With rhubarb crumble preferably. A moving experience.

ORAC 28th Feb 2022 17:57

Not something to be trifled with.

SLXOwft 28th Feb 2022 18:08

I believe the BL755s dropped by SHARs during the Falklands War were referred to as Custard Bombs, at least by 800 NAS.

NutLoose 28th Feb 2022 18:22

When I see these images of closely packed Russian vehicles in convoy in the Ukraine why can I not get images of the fleeing convoys in Kuwait and the decimation of those.

https://www.axios.com/satellite-imag...3102643ba.html

pr00ne 28th Feb 2022 18:26


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11191600)
By the Budapest memorandum article 4 it would not be NATO but UK and US providing the support they've promised in case someone attacks Ukraine.

It would be seen by Putin as hostile action by 2 NATO member states and he would react accordingly, which is one of many reasons why it will never happen.

SLXOwft 28th Feb 2022 18:52

Looks like some oligarch may be evading the sanctions, San Marino registered /Turkish owned Global Express 7T-VSR of Black Eagle Havacilik Anonim Sirketi (I'm led to understand a company linked to the escape of Ghosn and the kidnap from Kenya of an opponent of Erdogan) flying through Poland having routed from Moscow via Belarus and southern Lithuania.



Sanctioned oligarch 'all assets frozen' Alisher Burkhanovich Usmanov's A-340 over the M-IABU Black Sea out of Munich. 2207Z

pr00ne 28th Feb 2022 18:52


Originally Posted by MPN11 (Post 11191714)
THEY enabled it to happen, the way the USA enabled Trump.

However, I stray into other areas of discussion,

I just pray ‘internal forces’ will disable Vlad, one way or another.

Trump was voted for. Putin kills, imprisons his political opponents and makes genuine political opposition a crime. Not the same at all!

Flyhighfirst 28th Feb 2022 19:03


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11192347)
yes, that is including
1500 NLAW's
2500 assault rifles plus ammo
70000 food rations (battlefield)

The amount of NLAWS in Ukraine right now must be staggering! Just in the last week I have seen posts of close on 8000 being delivered from numerous countries. Surely they are getting them faster than they can use them. Mind you it’s a good problem to have. Better that than they other way around.

A multi mile long convoy just sitting outside Kiev. Surely that would be a target rich environment, or am I missing something?

Flyhighfirst 28th Feb 2022 19:08


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11192388)
With a 17 mile tail back of Russian Military vehicles waiting to get into the Kiev Hilton and the SSNs setting to sea, one wonders how many of the provisions of the UN Charter and associated conventions have to be broken before they exclude Russia from the Security Council ?:-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charte...United_Nations

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_war_theory

Unprovoked invasion,

Making war against Civilians

Proportionality of action.

First they would need to be proven to have been broken. Russia would just say they haven’t. Job done case closed. As a permanent member they have the final say.

Everyone knows the UN doesn’t work, but what do you replace it with? Bearing in mind the structure has to be something that the superpowers would agree to sign up to.



Cat Techie 28th Feb 2022 19:12

Did what they needed to do against MRLS attack. Hit the deck. 107mm rockets? The things imbed into the ground and usually a cone of shrapnel fires up. On the deck, you have to be unlucky to be hit. Jon Allen Butterworth lost his arm with a 250mm rocket landing next to him out in Basrah. He was laying down. If he had been standing, he would have been dead. Shockwave took his arm off. Alas that video takes me back to this week 14 years ago almost to the night (which it was as it was a leap year 29th) when I was with the crew of a C17 at Basrah doing the taxi run for them. Just dropped them at Met when the IDF alarm went off. Then a good salvo of incoming landed, most on the RAF accommodation. All clear I got the crew back to the 17 and returned to the office to find the guys on the net hearing the T1 casualty found and realising it was one of two 903 EAW personnel critically injured. It was the morning we found out it was Baz that had died. I feel sorry for all the Ukrainians facing that rubbish now.


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