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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:26

Ukraine recovers the bogged down Russian T80 tanks


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:30


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:41

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7c1233d4f8.png

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:49


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11206997)
You mean localized ukrainian counter attacks, it seem like ukraine is attacking in an attempt to encircle russian forces. The the reports in the last few hours is that Ukraine has retaken Irpin

No, see link below


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 12:07

A couple more Russian Generals no more?

Google translation


THE RUSSIAN REICH CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS COMMANDERS. 🔥Today, during the fighting, Ukrainian soldiers organized a meeting with the devil of the next batch of Russian war criminals. According to preliminary information, among the "disposed" is the commander and chief of staff of the 503rd motorized rifle regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. 😈At this pace in the abyss will have to open an officer's club. And if the Kremlin leaders do not think about it, then our defenders will regularly send new participants there. Glory to Ukraine!




macmp419 29th Mar 2022 12:25


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207323)
A couple more Russian Generals no more?

Another being reported:
❌Commander Denis Kurilo, commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (military unit 08275, Pechenga), was liquidated.

🌎 News | World | Politics
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....881c7bca3.jpeg

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 12:29

FROM CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html


Russia says it will "drastically reduce" military assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv

From Daria Markina
Moscow says it will “drastically reduce military activity” on two fronts — Kyiv and Chernihiv — according to the Russian Ministry of Defense Telegram channel.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier claimed “certain units” of Russia’s military are withdrawing from battlefronts in the capital, Kyiv, and from the northern city of Chernihiv.

“The Russian enemy did not meet the goal of its offensive operation,” it said in an official Facebook update Tuesday.

However, it warned of a “high risk” of Russian troops attacking military and civilian infrastructure. The Russian military, it claimed, is struggling to reinforce and rotate in new soldiers, due to the “refusal of personnel to participate in the so-called special operation,” and are “not able to staff even one battalion-tactical group.”

In the fifth week of the Russian invasion, the “heroic” Ukrainian resistance is “conducting a defence operation in the eastern, southeastern and northeastern directions, restrains the enemy in all directions, in some directions - displaces the enemy,” it said.

Less Hair 29th Mar 2022 12:45

Haven't they done exactly the opposite of what they announced and promised every time until now? Let's wait for some visible retreat first.

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 13:05

One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Tartiflette Fan 29th Mar 2022 13:15


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force


Presumably they will see if they just withdraw 10km, or back over their border, and act accordingly.

Everything else apart, both the May 9th Red Square Victory parade and also the beginning of the induction of the new class of conscripts are at hand, so you would expect more than usual redeployments at this time;

dead_pan 29th Mar 2022 13:26


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Somehow I think the Ukrainians may be more than aware of the risks (esp with NATO recce assets at their side). Also, an extensive, well laid minefield along the border should act as a nice little hindrance.

To be honest I'll believe they're withdrawing only when there's incontrovertible evidence on the ground, and even then...


airsound 29th Mar 2022 14:16

ACW342

...cousins are really trailing their coats today, F15 and two B52s,
Yes, but it's rather odd - on FlightRadar they don't seem to know about Fairford, where the Buffies are detached. They said one of the two had departed Kemble (now Cotswold) and the other Brize Norton.
No, they both came from Fairford - though I'd be interested to see a Buffie taking off from Cotswold (Or landing, come to that...) 🤔

airsound

MPN11 29th Mar 2022 14:33

My take on the “withdrawal” is for RU to cut their losses and regroup to secure the Donbas and the south coast ports. Thus shifting to centre of gravity toward what Vlad really has as a priority.

However, no doubt lies and maskirovka will make my prognosis further dribblings on an elderly armchair.

GlobalNav 29th Mar 2022 14:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 15:00

More on the bunkers available


https://www.nti.org/analysis/article...t-nuclear-war/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...lmost-complete



Russian Sites

Russia, too, has its own network of deep underground sites. In 2016, there were reports of Russia modernizing and expanding dozens of these sites.
  • A deep underground facility beneath the Kremlin. [6]
  • According to a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, there is an “enormous underground leadership bunker adjacent to Moscow State University … intended for the national command authority in wartime.” [7] This is known as the Ramenki Underground facility, and it is reportedly connected to the Kremlin by a VIP subway, popularly called Metro-2.
  • The underground subway reportedly travels further out to at least two extra-urban underground bunkers, one near Voronovo and another near Sharapovo. [8]
  • Far outside of Moscow, there is a large underground command center near Kosvinsky that is said to be a survivable command post roughly comparable to Raven Rock. [9]

The United States and Russian Federation are spending billions of dollars to maintain these facilities, and they are enormous in size. Each site has miles of tunnels under hundreds of feet of earth and rock. They have room for thousands of officials. A leaked DIA report about Russia’s growing emphasis on nuclear bunkers reportedly states that the two bunkers under Moscow alone could accommodate 10,000 people. [12] The same report asserts, “Highly effective life-support systems may permit independent operations for many months following a nuclear attack.” [13] These include power plants, water reservoirs and air filters to allow the occupants to continue their duties while Americans and Russians aboveground die in massive and excruciating numbers. Still, the statistics do not begin to convey the enormity of this enterprise.

macmp419 29th Mar 2022 15:00


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11207417)
Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.


Given that they have done exactly the opposite to what they have said so far, this statement released today caught my eye:

'No one is thinking about using nuclear weapons', Kremlin says

Russia has sought to allay fears it is considering the use of nuclear weapons.

Since the outbreak of war on 24 February, there have been concerns over Russia's intentions after Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on high alert.

However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today told the American broadcaster PBS "no one" was thinking about using nuclear weapons.

Asked whether Mr Putin had previously suggested he would use nuclear weapons if a third party got involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Mr Peskov said: "No. I don’t think so.

"But he was quite bold in saying do not interfere, if you do, we have all the possibilities to prevent that and to punish all those who are going to interfere."

The Kremlin spokesman went on to say: "No one is thinking about using… even about the idea of using nuclear weapons."

henra 29th Mar 2022 15:38


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11207417)
Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.

In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).

GlobalNav 29th Mar 2022 16:10


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11207437)
In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).

Sad thing is, the monster is calling all the shots, even from a relative position of weakness, and the west is only deciding to react or not. How can the west gain the initiative? His strength is his lack of inhibition way beyond what what decent people would dare. Ukraine’s strength is laudable courage, perseverance and resolve in the face of an existential threat. When is the west going to show some strength?

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 16:25

I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.

You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.

charliegolf 29th Mar 2022 16:40


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207468)
I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.

You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.

Didn't Stalin do similar when Barbarossa kicked off? Though he survived to kill a few more million...

CG


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