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What will the upcoming victory day parade in Moscow mean for the future timing of the special operation? They have lost momentum, run out of fuel and ammo and now the mud season approaches. What can be paraded on May 9th? Wouldn't they need a face saving way out by then?
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11206786)
I personally think a ceasefire would be a bad thing, Russia is on its backfoot, it is lacking supplies, fuel, arms and moral, having a ceasefire would allow reinforcements to be brought up and troops resupplied, something that would be of benefit of them but to the detriment of the Ukrainians.
I was watching MSNBC news last night and the retired US General and ex high ranking Government offical was saying we should be arming the Ukraine to the teeth, and that included M1 Tanks. |
Originally Posted by Less Hair
(Post 11206797)
What will the upcoming victory day parade in Moscow mean for the future timing of the special operation? They have lost momentum, run out of fuel and ammo and now the mud season approaches. What can be paraded on May 9th? Wouldn't they need a face saving way out by then?
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Reports circulating of a renewed Russian push north and west of Kyiv. Intriguing to see whether this is a genuine push with fresh troops and equipment, an attempt to prevent encirclement, a blocking move to cover a withdrawal of forces, or something else.
Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up? |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11206807)
Reports circulating of a renewed Russian push north and west of Kyiv. Intriguing to see whether this is a genuine push with fresh troops and equipment, an attempt to prevent encirclement, a blocking move to cover a withdrawal of forces, or something else.
Incidentally - or coincidentally - the Ukrainians had another curfew in force in the city yesterday. Maybe they knew something was up? Never mind reprint of an attempt of almost a week ago |
Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751 |
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 11206805)
It was reported a week or two back that Russian command had issued a decree that the "special operation" must be complete by May 9th, presumably for this reason.
https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d23cc32942.jpg |
I know I'm being deliberately simplistic here, but a "cessation of hostilities" is probably easily achieved by Russia simply announcing that it's starting to withdraw from Ukraine.
Then the only risk is retaliation as they withdraw, that's where a ceasefire can come into play. Based on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position It's only a few weeks ago the world was being told there's no invasion of Ukraine intended and the troop movements were just exercises. |
Originally Posted by 42psi
(Post 11206867)
IBased on what's happened so far I feel a reasonable conclusion is that any discussion about a ceasefire is only about consolidating/improving the Russian position
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They could always do a Special Withdrawal
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11206827)
Dead pan this is Retired Four Star General Barry McCaffrey at about 4:40
https://www.msnbc.com/deadline-white...l-136261189751 You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks. The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11206915)
Don't disagree with the General in terms of "get them some good stuff to fight with" but I do disagree that the Abrams tank is for this situation the correct answer.
You need to be well trained to make that system work; the Ukranians know how their systems work on theirs and the Russian tanks. The other weapons he referred to (like switch blade, etc) and various other munitions: yeah, deploy them, but make sure the "train the Trainer to train the man" on the new kit is thought through and implemented. |
Who are Bellingcat? as this seems serious
The Wall Street journal is running it too |
I did wonder and mention this, it seems it was correct.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11206921)
Who are Bellingcat?
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Nutty - bit surprised that someone as clearly able to source lots of different sources as you are has to ask who Bellingcat is!
For my money, they (and their founder Elliot Higgins) are amongst the best and most reliable open source investigators around. Have a look at http://www.bellingcat.com/about/ In there is an account of their two most famous investigations, including this: In July 2014, MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine. Over the next four years Bellingcat discovered key information about the downing of MH17, including tracking the missile launcher that shot down MH17 from its base in Russia to Ukraine, locating the field where the missile was launched from, and identifying a number of suspects involved with the incident. Bellingcat identified that the Russian military was involved years before it was confirmed by European officials. After the poisoning of MI6 double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in Salisbury in March 2018, Bellingcat has been able to unmask three suspects that we’ve identified as high-ranking Russian military intelligence officers. In October 2018, our researchers appeared at a press briefing at the House of Commons to detail findings about two of the suspects, which supported Britain’s assertion that Moscow had been behind the nerve agent attack. Our investigation into the attacks, which is ongoing, continues to receive significant global attention, from media outlets and governments alike. Add their fortnightly newsletter to your email! airsound |
Originally Posted by melmothtw
(Post 11206918)
Also, how would you get tanks to the Ukrainians any more? You couldn't air-, rail- or sealift them in, and you couldn't park them at the border for Ukrainian crews to collect? Switchblade, NLAW, etc can be surreptitiously transported in the back of trucks, car boots, etc.
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IF this is true as at today, it will be a massive blow::
IG |
Originally Posted by Usertim
(Post 11206940)
Well you could park them in a lot next to the border and tip off the ukraine farmers !!!
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