I would imagine it’s tying down Ukrainian forces from reinforcing elsewhere, plus those troops that have come in from Belarus etc which would mean it would be difficult to redeploy them to where needed without retreating, possible reason why they are simply digging in?

Retaliate on a troop formation or warships at sea - there are a good number off Mariupol and Odesa;?

Why not Lithuania too ? Both in response to the "worrying developments with Belarusian military movements"

Makes sense, the Russian troops there are too few to really attack, but too many to ignore, so Ukraine has to maintain a blocking force.
There was a decent rail link between Kiev and Donetsk, would expect that both sides have plans for it.

This is seriously bad news for all of us.

Winds for the first 2 days will blow any isotopes towards Russia. Then rain and snow for the next few days
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/.../chernobyl/ext

And the same prevailing winds from the west will do the same to any fallout if Putin goes nuclear….taking careful aim and shooting himself in the foot. Of course we must remember he does not care about the Russian people or anyone else for that matter.

Which prevailing winds are these please: the surface wind forecasts, if to be believed, are just above light and variable and as likely to blow low level contaminants backwards and forwards, depending on the time scale studied.
However, what really matters is high level winds and precipitation.

I linked to the weather forecast for the next two weeks. Precipitation is expected and surface winds are as shown. How much smoke and entrained radioactivity gets into the upper air would depend on the ferocity of the fire. It also depends where the fires are in relation to the contaminated areas. Have we any information on that?

Edit to add, 10,000 hectares went up in flames in 2020. It did not seem to cause a major incident.

Willingness to Negotiate
 

I’m sorry to see the items Ukraine is willing to negotiate (e.g., Donbas and neutrality) but I totally understand considering the horrendous loss of life and limits of support by the west.

Zelensky is a true shepherd of his people.

Firstly consider his audience, this was an interview to Russian media for the consumption of the Russian public so he wants to reinforce that Ukraine is not the agressor.
Second, he said that he is willing to "discuss" neutrality and solutions for Donbas, politic speak for implying but not committing to anything.
Thirdly, that it would have to be approved by a referendum of the Ukrainian people who are in no mood to conceed their land to Russia despite what they are enduring, makes me think "Not a chance"

Agreed but isn’t that subject to a referendum of the people?

I do think it will be an error to give up their land.

I see Turkey is trying to negotiate a ceasefire, that could be a bad thing in allowing Russia to reorganise and resupply.

Russians lost three planes last night north of Kiev alone,

"The situation escalated closer to 22:00 as air alerts roared across the country! The Russian occupiers carried out a massive air raid from the north of Kyiv region, where they lost three planes at once. The occupiers fired cruise missiles on several Ukrainian infrastructure facilities. Two missiles were shot down by air defense units," the Air Force Command added.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato...-missiles.html

If there really was so much forest burning I am pretty sure it would show on FIRMS https://[email protected],51.3,13z
Cannot see amything except a few smallish fires 6 days ago.

Surely they’ve smashed up enough of Ukraine by now? I think most reasonable people can see they have made their point. This is getting boring. Even out of sheer frustration is there any need to keep continuing this destruction?

I'm with Nutty on the error of ceding land.

This is worth a read:
https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-mi...lot-interview/

Nope, they still want it all. Ignore recent announcements regarding focusing on the Donbas.

Jolihokistix
I have to say that I am disappointed by the uncharacteristic insouciance of your post. One can only hope that it is the purest irony.

The only interesting question is whether this is a poor attempt at deception or a sign of disagreement inside the Russian leading circles

I personally think a ceasefire would be a bad thing, Russia is on its backfoot, it is lacking supplies, fuel, arms and moral, having a ceasefire would allow reinforcements to be brought up and troops resupplied, something that would be of benefit of them but to the detriment of the Ukrainians. I also feel sanctions should remain in place until the whole of the Ukraine is regained and reparations are made.. I also think it is a Russian bluff and they have no intention in stopping until the Country is taken.

I also think handing over territory would be a bad thing as well, you would be handing over what appears to be their main sea ports, lots of their industrial infrastructure and potential gas and oil fields in the region, as well their nuclear power plants..

I was watching MSNBC news last night and the retired US General and ex high ranking Government offical was saying we should be arming the Ukraine to the teeth, and that included M1 Tanks.

The trouble I see is keeping it on the front pages and support going for Ukraine, jolihokistix post is an example of what might happen.