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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 26th Apr 2022 08:46


Originally Posted by antheads (Post 11221057)
Britain supports Ukraine's right to attack Russian territory & to use Western-donated munitions to do so, James Heappey declares. Defence minister tells Times Radio that Moscow started the war & it's 'completely legitimate' for Kyiv to target Russia's 'depth' & logistics.

Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia. Lavrov won't be happy about that. I wonder what other targets UKR/SAS have in mind. Good. Things are going in the right direction and Great Britain is leading the way.

The Kerch (Crimean) Bridge comes to mind quite easily. Ukraine already stated that it'll do its outmost to take it out if the opportunity shall arise. The Kremlin Kriminals then said that it would be a terrorist attack.
I'm with Ukraine and Britain on this. Completely legitimate logistical target.

pasta 26th Apr 2022 09:05


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11221064)
The Kerch (Crimean) Bridge comes to mind quite easily. Ukraine already stated that it'll do its outmost to take it out if the opportunity shall arise. The Kremlin Kriminals then said that it would be a terrorist attack.
I'm with Ukraine and Britain on this. Completely legitimate logistical target.

The bridge may have been built by Russia, but at least some of it must be within Crimean waters, so Ukraine mightn't even be operating outside what they reasonably regard to be their own borders.

Beamr 26th Apr 2022 09:22

Germany will provide Ukraine with 50 Gepard anti aircraft tanks. I hope they send sufficient amount of ammo as well to those 35mm Oerlikons.
Also, Germany will double military support to Ukraine to 2bn Euros.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nks-to-ukraine

[email protected] 26th Apr 2022 09:42

So are the Western leaders finally realising that this is a chance to put Putin firmly back in his box and remove most of the Russian threat much of Europe has been living in fear of for the foreseeable future?

Timmy Tomkins 26th Apr 2022 09:46


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11220857)
And I would imagine prewar they were being supplied from Russia, so they won’t have had any replenishments since it started.

I note that the NATO airborne activity has been heavily concentrated in this area recently, with the Global Hawk being tucked in tight to the border all Sunday night.

peter we 26th Apr 2022 10:25


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11220973)
Now that makes for interesting problems for Emperor Putin. 600km pretty much goes up to NW of Moscow, to Tver.... Don't expect that the Tver fire at the defense research facility was an attack, it was an old building with bad wiring by all accounts, but the air defense problem becomes immense for Russia, including the whole of Kaliningrad. they have to decide if they want to protect their unfortunate SU-34s and 35s over Ukraine, or protect point defense of half of west and all od southern Russia. Interdicting production or supply is a big ask, and once deployed, it is a replay of the western desert scud hunting.

If you know the cruise missile configuration, that would be helpful.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....352392a4cf.png

look here.
https://defence-ua.com/
Searching in Ukrainian I'd beyond me but there was an 5 articles from 2018 about testing the various weapons systems that had been developed. They make a lot of weapons.

Ninthace 26th Apr 2022 10:28

I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.

peter we 26th Apr 2022 10:51


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11221098)
look here.
https://defence-ua.com/
Searching in Ukrainian I'd beyond me but there was an 5 articles from 2018 about testing the various weapons systems that had been developed. They make a lot of weapons.

on the other hand could be Himars
https://defence-ua.com/army_and_war/...roji-7110.html


https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/novitni_rszv_m270_ta_himars_vid_ssha_vzhe_nischjat_rashistiv _gur_zrobilo_tonkij_natjak-7108.html

fdr 26th Apr 2022 11:05


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11221099)
I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.

Ukraine once had port access in the Sea of Azov, which was denied by an aggressor called Putin. The denial of the Sea of Azov is an objective. After murdering thousands of civilians, and executing unarmed people, I'm not sure that being upset about stopping a boat or two from accessing an enemy port is an issue. In January, I would have said otherwise, after 24 FEB and after Bucha, nah, not going to lose sleep over that. Russia isn't just after Ukraine, they have publicly stated they want to connect to another breakaway group in Moldova, heck, there is the Borsht and Tears in Knightsbridge, so lets declare that as a breakaway republic from blighty, and make a day of that too.


fdr 26th Apr 2022 11:11


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11220142)
https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon...o-arm-ukraine/

Calling all weapons makers: Pentagon seeks new ideas to arm Ukraine

WASHINGTON ― In its effort to quickly arm Ukraine against Russia, the Pentagon has announced the equivalent of an open casting call for companies to offer weapons and commercial systems that can be rushed to the fight.

The Defense Department on Friday posted a broad request for information from industry on the federal contracting website sam.gov. The move is part of a stepped-up dialogue between the Pentagon and industry, and a sign of the challenge of boosting arms production in response to the ongoing conflict.

The RFI, on behalf of the new undersecretary of defense for acquisitions and sustainment, Bill LaPlante, is seeking input “from across industry” about air defense, anti-armor, anti-personnel, coastal defense, counter battery, unmanned aerial systems, and communications equipment, such as secure radios and satellite internet gear.

To that end, the DoD asks that responding companies describe their weapon, product or system in 100 words or less, and ― in the case of munitions ― check off “appropriate target type(s),” such as area, fixed, airborne/missile, maritime, mine, moving, hard or soft. The RFI says information received will be used to develop requirements for an actual solicitation at a later date……

The cutoff for submissions is May 6, and the DoD is evaluating proposals on a rolling basis…..


Have the correct contacts now for the US DOD on this RFI/RFP. Any person needing same, you can PM me, and I will provide the information, need confirmation of identity.
Back in 2012-2017 we had a relationship with a prime contractor, that is no longer the case. Any current SAM registered suppliers, prime or secondary, I would be interested in a discussion on proposal. I have made a proposal for URA, NATO (and USA of course) and AUS. Prefer to include JPN and ROK, but am foreign entity, unknown what position OSD has on Ferringhi at present, last time with the clown at AATD it was not impressive. Open to the proposal for current SAM registered suppliers for JV.

Most of my work is in performance, prop/rotor/wings, low speed and up to supersonic, but have one additional proposal for an interesting munition, that is proposed as well.
An indicator of the effectiveness of the mod, the one on the rotor, the normal RPM to stall is 82%, modified it is 68%. Normal case hits max left pedal as the rotor stalls (exciting, even at 1/2" skid height) Modified, at 68%, the left pedal demand is 50%.

Question:
1. what is the change in CL given the above observations
2. what is the minimum change in applied torque.... use a linear approximation of TR CL, Max Left 14, Neutral 0.

just an old school maths problem.... :}



Ninthace 26th Apr 2022 11:32


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11221109)
Ukraine once had port access in the Sea of Azov, which was denied by an aggressor called Putin. The denial of the Sea of Azov is an objective. After murdering thousands of civilians, and executing unarmed people, I'm not sure that being upset about stopping a boat or two from accessing an enemy port is an issue. In January, I would have said otherwise, after 24 FEB and after Bucha, nah, not going to lose sleep over that. Russia isn't just after Ukraine, they have publicly stated they want to connect to another breakaway group in Moldova, heck, there is the Borsht and Tears in Knightsbridge, so lets declare that as a breakaway republic from blighty, and make a day of that too.

That is a short term argument and there is a lot of maritime traffic to Rostov that could be interdicted. Is there a counter argument based on the longer term post war requirement? For example the relief and rebuilding of Mariupol?

Wokkafans 26th Apr 2022 11:57

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d55b72a7ac.jpg

NutLoose 26th Apr 2022 12:08

I have to hand it to the Ukranian PR campaign




MAINJAFAD 26th Apr 2022 12:24

As regards cut price defensive and offensive weapon systems. a few weird and wonderful WWII ideas should be operational now!!

Balloon Barrage. Took out a few V-1's in 1944. With modern electronics could come with small proximity fuzed warheads up the line (fibre optical line would allow remote arming / disarming), plus lightweight carbon fibre / nylon lines would allow stuff that goes bang to be strung between balloons.

Operation Outbound. Royal Navy balloon bombing campaign against German electrical grid and rail electrical system. Balloons dragged wire over power lines causing Phase shorts between the lines or the ground with shorted out the power systems causing trips of Substation breakers and damage to transformers . US did the same against Iraq gird with wire chucking Cruise Missiles in 1991. Use drones.

Parachute and cable system. Rockets today can be fitted with very cheap guidance systems that will allow them to fly in a direction you want and deal with any off axis disturbance. Build a device that will fire 5 rockets at the same time in a 120 degree arc from a central location with carefully packed lightweight cables in between them out to a distance of 200 metres of so with the device hidden on a hedge line as a Russian Helicopter just about to fly over it at low level. Attach some warheads to the rockets and cables bottoms. Warhead self destruct after 30 seconds or so if the lines don't wrap around the chopper and drag a bomb on to it. Would have a faster reaction time than a MANPADS.

NutLoose 26th Apr 2022 12:35

It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r


Parachute and cable system. Rockets today can be fitted with very cheap guidance systems that will allow them to fly in a direction you want and deal with any off axis disturbance. Build a device that will fire 5 rockets at the same time in a 120 degree arc from a central location with carefully packed lightweight cables in between them out to a distance of 200 metres of so with the device hidden on a hedge line as a Russian Helicopter just about to fly over it at low level. Attach some warheads to the rockets and cables bottoms. Warhead self destruct after 30 seconds or so if the lines don't wrap around the chopper and drag a bomb on to it. Would have a faster reaction time than a MANPADS.
Or
https://defense-update.com/20110124_...on_subsys.html

Rory57 26th Apr 2022 12:50


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11221099)
I am not sold on the idea of dropping the Kerch bridge. Apart from reprisals for such an attack, it may be costly to achieve and the resultant wreckage could block the access to the Sea of Azov, which needs thinking through. There are other, less costly, means of denying or hindering the use of the bridge short of its destruction.

Plenty of options for destroying the function of the Kerch bridge without blocking sea passage.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6849b086e3.jpg

ORAC 26th Apr 2022 13:42

Things are escalating in Moldova/Transnistria after yesterdays “attacks”. Two more reported today.

Just not sure what they and Russia can do. They aren’t up to attacking Ukraine in the rear without Moldova doing the same to them. Meanwhile Russian forces aren’t in a position to break through past Mykolaiv, let alone past Odessa - and I don’t think they’d risk an amphibious landing.

They wouldn’t be mad enough to try another airborne assault would they?


fdr 26th Apr 2022 14:10


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11221117)
That is a short term argument and there is a lot of maritime traffic to Rostov that could be interdicted. Is there a counter argument based on the longer term post war requirement? For example the relief and rebuilding of Mariupol?

If the access to the sea is not interdicted now, then the assumption of recovery of Mariupol is moot. Any action that precludes access to Crimea from the southeast, and impacts the ability for Russia to transfer munitions around to Sevastopol are worth considering. Look on the brightside, the rebuilding of a bridge and dredging of the channel gets to be paid from the funds frozen from the Russian accounts, there has been considerable consideration of that outcome. The problem is immediate, and that is of more concern now than later.

The good thing is, that the discussion at all, makes a need for Russia to reset AAA/SAM capability. There are 4 x S300 locations around Crimea that have been identified and indicated in the public domain. Of those, only one would have any effect to a strike on the western end of Kerch's bridge.

With a 300-600km range of cruise missiles that the URA has come up with, the Red forces have new problems with the defense of their MSR, and that is going to be taking away capability from other areas. Each battery takes combat teams to operate, so dispersal of Red force away from the FEBA is not a bad thing.

If Lavrov is sensitive to having missiles fired at infrastructure, perhaps next time he will be a little more careful in starting something without consideration of the consequences. My cat has about as much of a say as Lavrov has in the affairs of the evil empire of Vlad, and at least my cat is occasionally friendly.

DaveReidUK 26th Apr 2022 14:14


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11221134)
It seems a lot of Russian upper echelon are disappearing...

https://olgalautman.substack.com/p/n...eared-from?s=r

I felt strangely unable to click on the link labelled "Subscribe to Russia's War on Democracy" ...

NutLoose 26th Apr 2022 14:14

Oddly enough reading this

https://www.polygraph.info/a/fact-ch.../31476839.html


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov argued that the Russian troops in Transnistria were mostly guarding the arms depot, and that a pullout would leave that site unsecured. Polygraph previously fact-checked that claim and similar ones and found them misleading.

The Russian troops that are not operating under the authority of the Joint Control Commission are not neutral peacekeepers and are accused of propping up the separatist state and its military. They have held joint military exercises with the Transnistrian armed forces.

It was the intervention of Russian troops in 1992 that secured Transnistria’s de facto autonomy from Moldova. Since then, the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have repeatedly called for Russia unconditionally to remove its troops from Moldovan territory.

Russia and the OSCE signed an agreement in Istanbul in 1999 that set a deadline for Russian troops to leave by 2002. Nothing has budged.
and a clue to the size of it from 2017


Moraru has now sent a letter to the UN to ask to include the topic of the removal of the Russian troops on its agenda.

“The government of Moldova, according to Article 11 of the UN status, is calling for the inclusion of the issue of definite removal of international military troops from the territory of Transnistria on the agenda of the 72nd session of the General Assembly,” Moldpress quoted the letter as saying.

The information was confirmed by parliamentary speaker Andrian Candu, claiming that “for 25 years, under the pretext of a peackeeping mission,” Russia “illegally maintains troops, ammunition and arms” on Moldova’s territory.

“At the end of this session, the parliament adopted a declaration demanding that they should be withdrawn and the Moldova’s neutrality and statehood should be respected. It was not a simple document. We will continue to do everything to reintegrate the territory,” Candu wrote on Facebook.

Moldova’s Constitutional Court ruled on May 2 that the Moldovan authorities are entitled to use any means in order to prevent any situation (including the presence of foreign troops on its territory) affecting the country’s neutrality.

GOTR (Operative Group of Russian Troops) has been maintained by Russia in the Moldovan separatist republic of Transnistria with the declared mission of securing the 20,000 tonnes of ammunition left from the USSR.

Moldova and Ukraine took control this year of their border and removed Transnistria's involvement in the process, which generated economic hardship to the separatist region. This came after Moldova cut electricity purchases from Transnistria, generating even deeper losses in the separatist region.
https://www.intellinews.com/moldova-...istria-127689/



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