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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

jolihokistix 2nd Mar 2022 12:49

(The latter part of a post that got moved but needs to be here.)

A comment made on Japanese news today regarding Ukrainian requests to the Chinese for mediation. The two sides know each other quite well as the Liaoning, the first Chinese aircraft carrier, came from the Ukraine.

Perhaps they could ask for it back.

Right20deg 2nd Mar 2022 12:54

Flight Detent, you make important points. I totally agree.

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 13:06


Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever (Post 11193341)
I wonder if Putin has beefed up his security detail. Failing despots seem to be vulnerable to high velocity lead poisoning….

I did wonder if that is why when he was talking to his Military "advisors" they were sitting down the other end of a very long table, so if they did decide to take a pot shot he could duck out of the way or out of a side door, though I bet they are made to surrender any arms before being allowed in the room.

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 13:10


What is interesting to see from various videos around the bazaars are the large number of vehicles stranded with flat tyres. Direct action by saboteurs, self-inflicted so as not to be able to advance, anti-tyre traps, or simply rotten and decrepit rubber that has passed its use-by date.
There is a link on Twitter somewhere where they are looking at captured Russian rations and they are all use by 2015 lol, brought back memories of the Spangles? in our compo in the 80's that were welded to their wrappers.

Tartiflette Fan 2nd Mar 2022 13:23


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11193325)
Horse-trading already taken place at the talks viz-a-viz the west/east carve-up of the country ? ,+/- Interested foreign third parties staying the Ukranians hand ?

The troops have already been on exercise for a month and morale can't be the best.

Biden says, at end of last night's State of the Union. speech, "May god protect our troops " ?

What's your source for the carve-up information ? You seem to be alone in that.

"The troops have already been on exercise for a month and morale can't be the best." That's the Russians, so getting their convoy shot up would make things significantly worse for them.

Nope- nothing convincing there. Anybody else help ?

Tartiflette Fan 2nd Mar 2022 13:31


Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY (Post 11193336)
? The mobile Anti-Air is now static. The mobile artillery is now static. The mobile troop carriers are now static. If they are going nowhere, then there really is no hurry to do anything with them, in fact, leaving them alone may well have exacerbated the invader's problems. How long have they been sat in that queue? How many bowsers will it take to keep a convoy that size running? How are the troops keeping warm (sat snuggly in their vehicles because no one is attacking them) ? .

Examining that premise, it seems you are looking at the certain ( very small in total terms ) gain of fuel and rations used, against the potentially huge gain of destroying lots of strategic equipment, which could disappear under some circumstances ( bridges repaired, increased protective patrolling ) and further severely disrupting any possibility of advancing. For me that's a terrible evaluation of risk/return.

havoc 2nd Mar 2022 13:34

Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes
 
Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes to 'Draw Out' Ukrainian Air Defenses - The Aviationist

Russia May Use Antiquated An-2 Biplanes to ‘Draw Out’ Ukrainian Air Defenses

Satellite Photos Show Cold War Era Biplanes on Seshcha Airbase Near Ukrainian Border.

In a bizarre move that seems more at home in a Tom Clancy novel, Russia may be preparing to use antiquated Antonov An-2 biplanes, flying unmanned or as drones by remote control, in an effort to draw out Ukrainian air defenses and establish an electronic “order of battle” in preparation for a push into Kyiv.

Satellite photos taken between Feb. 28 and leading up to the past 24 hours show a significant number of Antonov An-2 single-engine biplanes, NATO reporting name “Colt”, at Seshcha Air Base in Dubrovka, Russia. The base is located near the eastern Ukrainian border and was used as a Tu-16 strategic bomber base during the Cold War.

Intelligence analysis provided by Maxar, a private satellite imagery and intelligence think tank company, in their March Situation Report said that:

“Russia has deployed 42 An-2 “Colt” biplanes to Seshcha Airbase in Western Russia. Defense blogger Dylan Malyasov noted in a February 2022 article that Russia had been recently testing An-2 flight formations near the Ukrainian border. The An-2s have likely been converted to drones and could be used as decoys to simulate helicopter or UAV formations to draw out Ukraine’s air defenses. Malyasov note that Azerbaijan employed this strategy against Armenia with great success in the 2020 conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Electronic warfare aircraft have also been deployed to Seshcha, joing the combat aircraft deployed in mid-February.”
https://theaviationist.com/wp-conten...10-706x314.jpgSatellite reconnaissance photo of Russian Antonov An-2 biplanes parked on a taxiway at Seshcha Airbase in Russia just across the Ukrainian border. (Photo: from MAXAR Satellite Imaging). In the box, the post by Defense Blogger Dylan Malyasov with a video supposedly showing testing of An-2 flight formations near the Ukrainian border.The report went on to say that, “Additional combat aircraft have been deployed to Shatalovo Airbase in western Russia [just north of Seshcha- ed], which is showing a 3X increase in numbers since early February.”

U.S. Senator Marco Rubio also alluded to the possible conversion of An-2 to drones, citing the same numbers included in Maxar report.


The old but still capable Antonov An-2 biplane is well suited to this mission because of its large radar signature and low-speed flight characteristics combined with low cost (read: “expendable”). The An-2, as old as it is in both technology and appearance, is a cost-effective alternative to modern remotely piloted airframes like Russia’s recently tested Inokhodets-RU unmanned aerial vehicle or the older KRONSTADT ORION-E remotely piloted aircraft.

Actually, it’s not even clear how the An-2 drones would be operated by the Russians (provided that the conversion is confirmed): for instance, in the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre, the Azerbaijani biplanes were not really drones (i.e. remotely piloted), but purely unmanned, according to the reports: the pilot took off normally, pointed the aircraft at Armenian positions and then locked the aircraft’s controls using belts. After that the pilot bailed out to safety letting the unmanned plane fly directly towards Armenian units, forcing the enemy troops to open fire thus disclosing their positions.

Anyway, it looks like, as the next round in this dreadful war continues, large numbers of unmanned biplanes over three quarters of a century old might be used in the opening round of an offensive on Ukraine’s capital.

dead_pan 2nd Mar 2022 13:54


Actually, it’s not even clear how the An-2 drones would be operated by the Russians (provided that the conversion is confirmed): for instance, in the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre, the Azerbaijani biplanes were not really drones (i.e. remotely piloted), but purely unmanned, according to the reports: the pilot took off normally, pointed the aircraft at Armenian positions and then locked the aircraft’s controls using belts. After that the pilot bailed out to safety letting the unmanned plane fly directly towards Armenian units, forcing the enemy troops to open fire thus disclosing their positions.
I recall Azerbaijan tried this once or twice then gave up. Silly idea really - smacks of desperation on the part of the Russians.

havoc 2nd Mar 2022 13:57

Bounty offered
 
Not sure how they will find out about the offer:

$1 million bounty on Putin offered by Russian businessman (msn.com)

A $1,000,000 bounty for the arrest of Russian President Vladimir Putin was offered to military officers by Russian entrepreneur Alex Konanykhin in a post he published on social media this week, as Russia continued its invasion of Ukraine.

"I promise to pay $1,000,000 to the officer(s) who, complying with their constitutional duty, arrest(s) Putin as a war criminal under Russian and international laws," wrote Konanykhin on LinkedIn. "Putin is not the Russian president as he came to power as the result of a special operation of blowing up apartment buildings in Russia, then violated the Constitution by eliminating free elections and murdering his opponents."

"As an ethnic Russian and a Russian citizen, I see it as my moral duty to facilitate the denazification of Russia. I will continue my assistance to Ukraine in its heroic efforts to withstand the onslaught of Putin's Orda," added the businessman. Orda is the Russian word for "horde," a predatory, plundering gang.

The post was accompanied by an image with a photo of Putin and the words "Wanted: Dead or alive. Vladimir Putin for mass murder."

Konanykhin has a turbulent history with the Russian government.

According to a 1996 article in The Washington Post, Konanykhin studied at the Moscow Physics and Technical Institute before abandoning his studies and opening a student construction cooperative. He then branched out into a number of other businesses, including banking, stocks and real estate.

By the age of 25, he had an empire of over 100 firms. By 1992, his companies were worth about $300 million. He was even a part of then-Russian president Boris Yeltsin's first delegation to Washington that year.

In 1996, while living in the US, Konanykhin and his wife were arrested by federal immigration agents on charges of violating the conditions of their American visas. The case was seemingly sparked after Russian authorities claimed that he embezzled $8 million from the Russian Exchange Bank in Moscow.

The case went on for weeks, with FBI agents testifying that the Russian mafia had taken out a contract on Konanykhin's life as well as a former KGB agent who testified that he had serious doubts about the charges filed against the oligarch.

During the trial, Konanykhin testified that some of his corporate aides at the Russian Exchange Bank began pressuring him for money and made threats, prompting him to move to Hungary, according to the Post. He claimed that he was then threatened with violence again, prompting him to flee to the Czech Republic and then to New York.

Konanykhin complained about the threats to Russian officials and even Yeltsin himself. At a certain point, authorities stopped investigating the threats and began investigating him instead, claiming he had illegally wired $8 million from the bank to his personal accounts overseas. Russian authorities claimed that his version of events was fake and aimed to slander his former employees.

A settlement was eventually reached and he was freed from detention and eventually granted political asylum. Just a few years later, however, the Board of Immigration Appeals revoked the political asylum and ordered that he be deported. Konanykhin and his wife attempted to flee to Canada but were arrested.

The deportation of the couple was cancelled following a number of emergency hearings after U.S. District Judge T.S. Ellis found the decision unlawful, saying "I have the firm impression that it is the strong desire of people in the executive branch to return this man to Russia for what reason I cannot tell. It stinks," according a report by the Moscow Times. He was granted asylum again in 2007.

In 2011, he founded TransparentBusiness, which helps companies manage their remote workforce. He is also part of Unicorn Hunters, a show which allows unicorn founders to pitch to millions of investors around the world.

Natan Rothstein contributed to this report.

Sue Vêtements 2nd Mar 2022 14:23


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11193389)
I recall Azerbaijan tried this once or twice then gave up. Silly idea really - smacks of desperation on the part of the Russians.

It didn't work too well during Operation Aphrodite with the BQ-17s either

Ewan Whosearmy 2nd Mar 2022 14:57


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11193408)
Sorry. Ihave a degree in English and am a qualified interpreter, but can make no sense of that. Can you re-write unscrambled ?

He's saying that it would be better to actually test that the convoy was U/S, rather than find out the hard way that it was simply sitting idle while "peace talks" were underway.

Tartiflette Fan 2nd Mar 2022 15:07


Originally Posted by Ewan Whosearmy (Post 11193424)
He's saying that it would be better to actually test that the convoy was U/S, rather than find out the hard way that it was simply sitting idle while "peace talks" were underway.

Bloody hell - talk about the fog of war ! I hope people involved say "Attack" or "shoot " and avoid convoluted verbosity as evidenced above.

SATCOS WHIPPING BOY 2nd Mar 2022 15:12

Post deleted because I was an arse and didn't read the comment properly.

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 15:16

Another for the Farming collection, this time a Tor-M2 short-range air defense system.



NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 15:21

One seriously lucky individual

more freebies.. :E


NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 15:35


Originally Posted by NAROBS (Post 11193374)
How about testing the hypothesis ? Before assumption makes an ASS of me and thee ?

Random, progressive nibbles on the head of the convoy, so if the assumptions about the reasons for the stalling of the column are wrong, at least the defenders will have a maximised notice period to prepare, whilst the Russians move the debris ?

Different play on it, dropping the bridge after the column has passed thus trapping it.


NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 15:44

Leaked documents revealing the invasion was approved on 18th of January to run from the 20th of Feb to the 6th of March, says they have been verified.


ex-fast-jets 2nd Mar 2022 15:58

If I was Ukrainian, I would be immensely proud of what those people are doing and have achieved.

I am not Ukrainian, but I am still amazed and in awe of what they are doing.

I wish them well and hope most sincerely that they prevail and survive the probable and inevitable Putin reaction to his humiliation - which will affect us all.

As an aside, I think the title of this thread needs amending.


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