B2 at night instead, standoff ALCMs from a plausibly Ukranian firing point, perhaps with Ukranian aircraft in the vicinity of launch I dunno just wanna whack Vlad !

I'm late reading this, but came here to agree with the comment earlier from deadpan about it seeming to be an incomplete analysis. It isn't just the possible effect of MANPADS which Bronk omits: it's GBAD, full stop. In an earlier article (here) he sets out Ukrainian ORBAT and some of the constraints upon it, but perhaps it has been more potent (or more of a deterrent) than expected? You'd have thought the latest article would at least have addressed the possibility. Another might be simply that the RFAF wants to minimise exposure to NATO of any countermeasures or tactics against SAMs it knows well, although I guess they would care less about that as time goes by if progress remains faltering.

i should imagine a lot of the Countries involved would have wanted it done quietly rather than bleated out to the worlds press, hence a lot of Countries deny they were supplying aircraft. I should imagine the initial reports that they would have launched armed from Poland may have been correct, but now it’s out there they have had to downplay it and deny it from happening.

I'm trying to work out how the Ukrainians get their `new' MiGs over the border from Poland without being shot down.
I assume they'll have to move quick smart.
EDIT: Ignore that - I see the plan to supply old MiGs from Poland and Slovakia is now a nonstarter.

Presumably defending the west of the Ukraine becomes an absolute imperative if you're going to continue to ensure the continued NATO supply of NLAWS and other weapons and materiel flowing into the country?
As Russia moves west - if they push right to Lviv the situation on the border must be likely to get very fluid - high risk of a Poland/Hungary/Romania v Russia incident or shootdown.
Could happen as much by mistake as anything.

Who needs enemies when you have friends working against you Like this..

Ukraine foils assassination attempt
 

Ukraine foils assassination attempt on Zelensky by Chechen special unit

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF - 34m ago
Ukraine foils assassination attempt on Zelensky by Chechen special unit (msn.com)Aunit of Chechen special forces sent on a mission to assassinate Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky was "eliminated," head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov announced on Ukrainian parliament's official television station Rada TV on Tuesday.

According to Danilov, Ukraine received intelligence on the assassination attempt from Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) agents.

"And I can say that we received information from representatives of the FSB, who today have no desire to take part in this bloody war," he claimed.

The special unit belonged to the Kadyrovites, a Chechen paramilitary organization aiding Russian forces in their invasion of Ukraine.

"The special operation that was to be carried out directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president is fully known to us today," Danilov stated.

Danilov went on, adding that the unit split into two, with one half seeking cover in the town of Gostomel, near capital Kyiv, where the world's largest airplane, the Antonov-225 Mriya, was destroyed by Russian strikes targeting the Gostomel airport.

"One group was covered in Gostomel, another group is now, let's say, under the gun," Danilov said.

Danilov finished by stating that "the Kadyrovites' elite group, which came here specifically to eliminate our president, was directly destroyed."

Wear clown shoes, get clowns in your Car.

Not saying that Vlad's scum won't roll over UKR if they ramp up as it appears that they may be doing, but as someone said on AARSE, might win Tactically but not strategically, that game's already over.

Edit: Was replying to Nutloose's post about Lukashenko

Reports in several newspaper are that the landings are off, Marines revolted and informed the Ukrainians the attack was off then the fleet requested from Ukraine permission to sail away

There's no doubt about that. Even if Russia seizes control of Ukraine tomorrow without another shot being fired, there is no way the international community will back down from the sanctions now in place until Ukraine's sovereignty is restored, and those sanctions are severe enough to bring about the end of Putin sooner or later (probably sooner). No doubt there will be Russian attempts to peel states away from the consensus, one by one, but I suspect that any who start to wobble will soon come under threat of sanction themselves. In the absence of any possibility of UN action, maintenance of the international system (which remains in the best interest of practically all states) demands nothing less.

No doubt Easy you are correct, but I was more commenting on the unlikelihood that the great majority of the UKR population are now very west/EU leaning, against the past crap, and as much mentioned elsewhere RU would not be able to hold their Slavic brothers under control w/out much more force levels than can be deployed. Vlad used to be a great calculator (such is the narrative) He appears to be either wrong, mental, or terminally ill and that affecting his judgement

I'm intrigued by India's position in this. They appear to play both sides (RU & US) and seem to be keeping a low profile, akin to not knowing who to back. Just my 2c.

Truly a sad day

When someone writes a book about this war, and in particular this 60 km long static convoy, there will be an interesting chapter on the real reasons that it did not move. (I get the explanation that vast convoys can only realistically move 50 km a day for logistical reasons.)

Speculation warning.
If there is any truth in this 'mutiny' over the Odessa landings, then could there be loss of morale and discipline within the ranks in the army convoy? Are there rogue generals even, or troops that have spent time on the available internet, refusing to move if they are not 100% welcome in Ukraine?

Or are they waiting for the cities to be mashed to pulp first by incoming fire? If the latter, then Putin needs to know NOW that they are sitting ducks and that he will lose his youngest and finest if he ever unleashes his war crime on the cities.

Or has Putin set up a dummy convoy waiting for it to be attacked, offering him a pretext to attack the cities? They seem to be parked temptingly close together.

I have read elsewhere that unseasonably warm temperatures (above zero :)) mean that the ground is unexpectedly boggy and thus most vehicles are confined to roads. The Ukrainians seem to have done a good job of demolishing key bridges, and the Russians' logistic ineptitude means they are taking forever to get bridging equipment into place. So there is a massive traffic jam in the North waiting for river crossings to be established further south.

I doubt many current A-10 and Apache pilots are looking at those images and salivating. They are probably thinking "only if someone takes out the Buks and S400s a few miles away over the border, not to mention the embedded Tor units." As should be obvious, that simply isn't going to happen.

U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft
 

Biden to announce U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft (msn.com)

Biden to announce U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft

The U.S. will close its skies to Russian aircraft, President Joe Biden will announce during his State of the Union address Tuesday night, according to a source familiar with the president's plans.

The announcement will come during an address that will focus heavily on the response by the U.S. and its allies against the Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
The move to close U.S. airspace to Russian aircraft follows actions taken by the European Union earlier this week to do the same.

On Sunday, the E.U. banned all travel from Russian planes over its airspace in response to President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. That ban applied to “any plane owned, chartered or otherwise controlled by a Russian legal or natural person” and included any aircraft privately owned by a Russian oligarch, officials said.

Individual European countries had previously prohibited various Russian aircraft from their airspace. Canada has also shut its airspace to Russian aircraft.

Biden’s announcement for the U.S. to do the same will come during a speech in which he’ll slam Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as “wrong” and will highlight the response that the U.S. and its allies have undertaken against it, according to excerpts released by the White House.

“Throughout our history we’ve learned this lesson — when dictators do not pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos. They keep moving. And, the costs and threats to America and the world keep rising,” Biden will say.

In his prime-time remarks, Biden will highlight the unity between the U.S. and its NATO allies in their response to Russia’s “premeditated and unprovoked” invasion, saying Putin underestimated the strength of the NATO alliance, according to excerpts remarks released by the White House ahead of the speech.

“That’s why the NATO Alliance was created to secure peace and stability in Europe after World War 2. The United States is a member along with 29 other nations,” Biden will say. “It matters. American diplomacy matters.”

“[Putin] thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond. And,he thought he could divide us here at home,” Biden will say, according to the excerpts.

“Putin was wrong. We were ready,” Biden will say.

Biden’s speech will come after another day of fighting in Ukraine, where an intensifying Russian assault pounded the heart of Ukraine’s second-largest city, fueling fears that civilians would bear the brunt of the attack.

Does anyone remember when there was thinking that the Warsaw Pact might reach the English Channel in a week or two? 48 Hours even!
It was hard to believe even then – If the T-72 was as unreliable as Chieftain they would not have got any to Gutersloh !

Sadly I can see no good outcome for Ukraine. Putin can’t back down now so an occupied Ukraine is the only acceptable outcome for him. The only way that is going to happen is total war with a level of death and destruction we have not seen since WW2

The world order as we know it is going to change in important ways, some good, some not good at all…

Seeing all those trucks - the TOS-1s and MLRSs lined up, you can just see what Putin is going to do.
Stand 6kms back from Kyiv and turn it into Grozny.
Then the ground troops will go into a burned out and shattered hell.

Naive thought, since it was “essential” that the tanks go in while the ground was frozen solid, why not light loads of bonfires to turn the lanes and surrounding area into mud?

They whole drumbeat of war was that they had to launch in February when it was cold. Are they actually useless later in the year?

Same idea as blowing up bridges: slow the approach.

If they can’t get enough fuel to the convey it grinds to a halt.

If there isn’t enough food, well the soldiers will probably take what’s available rather than go hungry.