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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 5th Dec 2021 14:53


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11151647)
Spot on, sir.

Thank you, perhaps Putin needs to ask himself why it required a wall with mines, machine gun posts and dogs to keep people in his utopia and prevent them fleeing to the west, but since that came down and those countries grew closer to the west there hasn’t been seen a need to build a wall to prevent the populations fleeing to the east.

Beamr 5th Dec 2021 18:33


Originally Posted by transport jock (Post 11151794)
You mean how like the West was invited in to Libya, Iraq, Syria,Yemen and Afghanistan etc?

I am not pro west or pro Putin, but just playing devils advocate here. Can you imagine the worlds reaction if Russia had invaded Iraq under the pretense of looking for weapons of mass destruction and not finding anything…

west is being used rather freely in this statement, aye?

Imagine how the world would react if any of the western countries invaded sovereign state like Ukraine with unmarked soldiers and annexed part of it, say, Crimea.

Herod 5th Dec 2021 19:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11151720)
Thank you, perhaps Putin needs to ask himself why it required a wall with mines, machine gun posts and dogs to keep people in his utopia and prevent them fleeing to the west, but since that came down and those countries grew closer to the west there hasn’t been seen a need to build a wall to prevent the populations fleeing to the east.

"Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government, except all those other forms that have been tried from time to time" (Churchill, House of Commons 11 Nov 1947)

NutLoose 6th Dec 2021 00:22


Originally Posted by transport jock (Post 11151794)
You mean how like the West was invited in to Libya, Iraq, Syria,Yemen and Afghanistan etc?

I am not pro west or pro Putin, but just playing devils advocate here. Can you imagine the worlds reaction if Russia had invaded Iraq under the pretense of looking for weapons of mass destruction and not finding anything…

Russia went into Afghanistan and were / are in Syria, they are also in Libya were we were invited in to help.

ORAC 6th Dec 2021 07:13

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/p...year-dtf6mrkgk

Putin ‘is ready to invade Ukraine in the new year’

Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin will hold crisis talks tomorrow as Russia masses 175,000 troops on the border with Ukraine and US intelligence warns of a potential invasion early next year. American intelligence officers believe Moscow has drawn up plans for a military offensive on several fronts as the Kremlin continues to move troops, artillery and armour up to the borders of eastern Europe…..

Ukrainian and Nato sources fear that Moscow could use migrants to seize the Suwałki Corridor — a 60-mile sliver of territory between Poland and Lithuania. The corridor is all that connects Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia with the rest of the European Union and Nato’s European territories.

Under such a scenario, Russia could push migrants into the corridor and stoke unrest. Russian troops could then sweep in and deploy military patrols along the corridor under the guise of a humanitarian crisis. Such a move would enable Russia to link up its forces in Kaliningrad with Belarus. All this could be achieved in less than two hours, Ukrainian assessments suggest. A diplomat from eastern Europe told The Times: “Refugees are a very sophisticated weapon if they are weaponised.”

Last month Russia sent troops to the Belarus border with Poland, where hundreds of migrants were trying to cross to the EU. The Kremlin said the sudden deployment was for snap drills. A Ukrainian source said the migrant crisis on the Belarus border was part of a plan to see if Nato would trigger Article 5 on collective defence of the alliance. They said it was a “rehearsal” for using migrants to seize more territory…….


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6951352cc.jpeg

https://cepa.org/the-suwalki-corridor/

NutLoose 6th Dec 2021 10:51

Someone on our side needs to grow a set of balls to prevent this.

henra 6th Dec 2021 11:20


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11152101)
Someone on our side needs to grow a set of balls to prevent this.

Any ideas how to prevent this, should it be really planned that way?

NutLoose 6th Dec 2021 12:16

Start moving NATO troops into the area in meaningful numbers in response, and trigger article 5. Sanction the country with a total embargo?.
If you do not protect these countries NATO is not fit for purpose.

Less Hair 6th Dec 2021 12:24

It will not end here if we don't contain this.

ORAC 6th Dec 2021 12:39

It mov3 troop# where? Belarus birders with Lithuania/Poland, order of Ukraine, Birders of Serbia/Kosovo and Montenegro?

Lots if misdirection going on with, potentially, a move elsewhere.

fitliker 6th Dec 2021 13:44


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11152142)
It will not end here if we don't contain this.

You first pal :)

Will a Catholic President and Catholic allies surrounding the Orthodoxy of Moscow attack ? Or seek to expand and enjoy their fellowship in Christ ?


Tashengurt 6th Dec 2021 13:44

Seems the West and in particular NATO has been soundly outplayed here.
Activate Article 5 and Putin will say he's been proved right on NATO expansion.
Don't activate and he'll say he was proved right that the West doesn't really have the will to protect newer member states.
We're going lose land here and it's anyone's guess how much.

Beamr 6th Dec 2021 13:52

Tashengurt: Poland and Lithuania are already NATO countries, so use of article 5 does not mean expansion to east.

Using article 5 in case little green unpatched men enter polish/lithuanian soil would be entirely sound.

unmanned_droid 6th Dec 2021 14:04

The call must clearly come from the threatened member states and non-member states - if its all quiet in those states' leadership it feels like a public tacit acceptance should their borders be threatened or encroached by Russia, regardless of what goes on behind the scenes. Of course, Russia will say that it is from a minority supported by NATO/EU/Santa/whoever. And they'd know about that....

Tashengurt 6th Dec 2021 15:19


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11152175)
Tashengurt: Poland and Lithuania are already NATO countries, so use of article 5 does not mean expansion to east.

Using article 5 in case little green unpatched men enter polish/lithuanian soil would be entirely sound.

Well, it would hardly be relevant if they weren't would it?
My point is that Putin will use any military moves by NATO to 'prove' that the Eastern nations were only accepted into NATO to allow for aggressive expansionism.

Beamr 6th Dec 2021 15:58


Originally Posted by Tashengurt (Post 11152221)
Well, it would hardly be relevant if they weren't would it?
My point is that Putin will use any military moves by NATO to 'prove' that the Eastern nations were only accepted into NATO to allow for aggressive expansionism.

Putin will use any rhetorics he and his posse come up with to justify his expansionist and imperialist actions. Whether it includes NATO movements or not is entirely insignificant.

Asturias56 6th Dec 2021 16:51

So - what is to be done? (to quote V I Lenin)

What do we threaten them with?

Regretfully I think it's time some threats were made clear

dead_pan 6th Dec 2021 18:15

What's Putin's aim with all of this? To secure yet more territory and "citizens"? To test NATO's resolve once and for all? Seems a little far-fetched, although, strategically, a move against eastern Ukraine could make sense. Anything more could risk disaster.

Personally I suspect this posturing is more for domestic consumption i.e. to keep him and Russia in the west's limelight and/or divert attention away from Russia's economic plight and bungled Covid response.

Either way he can't keep his troops camped out for that long in this weather.

NutLoose 6th Dec 2021 21:00

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nvades-ukraine


The US has said it would send reinforcements to Nato’s eastern flank in the wake of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as imposing severe new economic measures, in a warning to Moscow on the eve of talks between Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin.

Biden will also make clear to Putin that the US will not rule out future Ukrainian membership of Nato, as the Russian leader has demanded, a senior US official said.

ORAC 7th Dec 2021 06:53

And from The Times. It would seem that, notwithstanding the talk of sanctions, no one is going to step forward to help Ukraine defend itself….

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...aine-gx8mbj37w

Western leaders plan reprisals if Russia invades Ukraine

Boris Johnson held talks last night with President Biden and other western leaders to agree a package of sanctions against Russia should it invade Ukraine.

The prime minister joined the leaders of Germany, France and Italy to form a joint strategy “to impose significant and severe harm on the Russian economy” before Biden’s high-stakes phone call with President Putin today.

Measures being considered by Nato leaders include cutting off Russia from the international financial settlement system, and restrictions on banks similar to those that crippled the Iranian economy over nuclear non-compliance. Biden is also expected to warn that the US would agree to deploy “additional forces and capabilities” to eastern Europe in response to any incursion.

However, officials made clear that the president would not threaten a direct US military response……

The White House fears that Putin believes he has a moment of opportunity to act because he sees the US and UK focusing on the pandemic, France in the throes of an election and Germany changing leader…..

The conference call had been requested by the US, Downing Street said. A spokesman said afterwards that Johnson and Biden had “emphasised the need to provide a united front in the face of Russian threats and hostility”, adding: “The prime minister said the UK would continue to use all the economic and diplomatic tools at its disposal to prevent any Russian aggression against Ukraine.”






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