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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

henra 2nd Mar 2022 10:01


Originally Posted by Ripton (Post 11193243)
I would have agreed but I think the longer this goes on the less likely the ascension of anyone associated with Putin will be an acceptable option as they will have become too complicit. If too much time passes they might also see themselves as being trapped. "I am in blood Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o’er." and all that.
Lavrov being one of those already too toxic.

Hmmm, dunno. Lavrov for sure has exposed himself too much for being a credible change. But there might be others in the second row whose role was not as prominent who could (more or less credibly) claim to have had no options of interfering. E.g. the 'poor' Secrete Service Guy who was publicly 'schooled' by Putin lately.

jolihokistix 2nd Mar 2022 10:03

Someone might carry a briefcase into one of the bunker meetings.

Usertim 2nd Mar 2022 10:21

Interesting article, possibly russian forces disabling their own vehicles?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/w...-pentagon.html

HOVIS 2nd Mar 2022 10:40

Sky News UK reporting a dog fight over Kyev and two Russian aircraft shot down.

Spunky Monkey 2nd Mar 2022 10:43

There should be safe amnesty routes for the Russian troops so they can cross into neighbouring areas and flee the fighting.
almost impossible to do at the moment without severe risk from the air but leaflets left lying around everywhere by locals can cause severe mental anguish to the Russians.
”Cold, hungry, tired of sitting in a traffic jam, being shot at and seeing your friends die.
Thought you were going on exercise in Belarus or liberating your Ukrainian brothers and sisters?
Want to be home with Mama or Babushka?
Then walk this way, you will be treated fairly, a hot meal and a vodka awaits…

The Helpful Stacker 2nd Mar 2022 10:44


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11193241)
You can be sure the Ukrainian Forces are aware of that convoy and have evaluated their options. And you can be sure they have a much clearer picture of what's doable/worth the risk and what's not than we do have on our safe armchair and keyboard.

Indeed.

It's ridiculous how many times within this thread posters have made 'suggestions' that are pretty much exactly what Ukrainian forces have been doing so far.

It's almost as if such tactics are pretty universally understood....

Imagegear 2nd Mar 2022 10:54


FlightDetent 2nd Mar 2022 11:04


This is going to be a primarily a ground war. In this respect, the fact those EU countries decided not to supply those aircraft is probably now moot.
Those countries never decided or agreed to any such thing in the first place, upon closer inspections.

There has been some praise about the EU standing together, but the look under the hood is not really nice.

The individual countries have indeed committed and delivered, in some cases at least, a noble and survival critical response. Bravo.

That needs to be viewed separately from the EU leadership who tried to sieze the marketing potential afterwards. With a baffling announcement of the monetary value and fighter jets from countries even on Ukrainian borderline who had not been consulted.
​​​
The numbers were probably downloaded from Wikipedia, as the hardware is mostly cannibalised and unflyable, remaining single/double units being maintained by Russian expert personnel in-situ.

Don't forget Mrs. Leyen was the DE Minister of Defundce, who got effectively kicked out the
national executive for causing mayhem, into the EU bodies.

First the SWIFT 'mother of all sanctions' could not cutoff Russia because Germany was 'calculating the effect on us', then after the agreement it was delayed almost a week because the list of affected banks was not compiled. Finally, Sberbank is not on it, owned by RF ministry of finance 50+%. The Gazprom's own bank also not cutoff. Not surprised.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-01/eu-agrees-to-block-russian-banks-from-swift-sparing-key-firms

No, the EU common bodies deserve exactly the credit to their achievement, which is probably zero.

Unloaded support material is the new boots on the ground. Bravo to those who managed, apparently US did from a large distance, Turkey shut the strait, and China allows open informing on social media.

The European countries are too numerous to list, acting individually... well noticed.

I guess the German 5000 helmets have arrived in the meantime too, did they?
​​​​​
http://www.cbr.ru/psystem/fin_msg_transfer_system/

​​​​​​Russian State Bank's own cross border system, apart from the usual central Asian connections has banks from Switzerland and Germany. Whoohaa...

Mother of all smokes and mirrors, at best.

Meanwhile, in the EU high chairs:
https://palnws.be/2022/01/frans-timmermans-poetin-bedreigt-oekraine-omdat-hij-aandacht-wil-afleiden-van-klimaatprobleem/

No shortage of unuseful idiots.
​​​​​



​​​​

SATCOS WHIPPING BOY 2nd Mar 2022 11:05

Logged in for a proper catch-up and had to check I hadn't accidentally subscribed to the 1940s " Boy's Own Book of how to stop a convoy - and other scamp-like things".
For every idea suggested, I am sure the Ukraine's will have thought of 20 more.

Not seen this on here before so thought I would post.

https://liveuamap.com/

Tends to be pretty up to date with what is occurring and where. It pulls together info from various sources, often real-time on the ground, and gives the links to those sources. Pretty useful to help build a picture if you are struggling to wade through the dross on other news sites.

LS-4 2nd Mar 2022 11:20


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11193101)
Truly a sad day

Re. Natasha Perakov. Don't really know, but might appear to be fake. At least one of the alleged photos seems to be from some website selling fake military outfits or something.

Official propaganda (from both sides) is one thing and to be expected, but I'm almost getting more annoyed by made-up BS proliferating through social media, i.e. videos from 2014, video game/DCS stuff, etc.

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 11:29

Imagegear the link does not show but regarding the meetings to broker an end to it all, it is reported the high ranking Russian in the delegation is the Minister of Culture, hardly what one would expect if Russia was serious.

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 11:48

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...kindness-with/


For three decades, one of Europe’s poorest countries has been emptying out: More than a million people have departed Moldova since 1991. They’re still leaving, at a pace of 35,000 a year. Across the country, 100,000 homes stand empty.

Now, Ukrainian refugees are pouring into Moldova – more than 88,000 so far – and its government and companies are scrambling to give them chances to work through acts of charity that coincide with a national need for labour.

The government is sweeping away legal barriers to their employment and opening its classrooms to Ukrainian teachers. Meanwhile, companies are offering jobs as graphic designers, office managers, construction workers, restaurant staff and IT workers.

It’s part of an outpouring of national generosity that has seen Moldovans drive hours to border points to pick up strangers and homeowners offer spare rooms to fleeing families in need of a place to sleep.

“We cannot ignore their hard times,” said Mihaela Lavrov, an office manager at Purcari, the country’s oldest winery, which has allowed people to sleep free of charge in its vineyard chateau – and rented a hotel in another location for extra beds.Welcoming refugees has become such a national effort that traffic accidents and crime rates have fallen by about a fifth in recent days, as Moldovans focus on helping those arriving in their country.

But the tide of people also represents an economic opportunity to bring skills into a country that has struggled to keep its most talented at home. Refugees “should be integrated economically and earn money,” Igor Grosu, president of the Moldova parliament, said in an interview. Moldova has already simplified procedures for Ukrainians to open bank accounts, enroll their children in local schools and access health care.

“If these refugees decide to stay in Moldova they are welcome. That would be a solution for them – and it would help Moldova,” said Veaceslav Ionita, a former member of parliament who is now an expert in public finance at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives, an independent think tank.

“Because in my opinion, the biggest challenge for Moldova in the next two or three years is it has no workers.”

The country’s burgeoning IT sector, which has been doubling in size every two years, could easily absorb 5,000 people, he said. Five thousand more could quickly find work in automotive manufacturing, another growth industry. Local construction companies have jobs for a further 5,000.

As refugees have arrived, Moldovan companies have acted with great speed to offer jobs to Ukrainians.

In Chisinau, the national Association of Information and Communications Technology Companies has offered free co-working space.

The association’s president, Veaceslav Kunev, said he has fielded dozens of requests for help in finding work. “I’ve created new jobs to help refugees,” he said, adding he has the capacity to open 10 data-entry positions.

Anastasia Nistor, who owns a branding company, has opened an office manager position that could, she says, appeal to a mother who wants to work and still be able to care for children.

Since Ukraine barred military-age men from leaving the country, most refugees are women with young children. Ms. Nistor is a mother of toddlers herself, and “I can bring a lot of toys because my home is full of toys,” she said.

She is also hoping that the refugees arriving in Moldova include a graphic designer, which is someone “we really need.”

NutLoose 2nd Mar 2022 11:58




I like that :)

Not so good.


Tartiflette Fan 2nd Mar 2022 12:04


Originally Posted by The Helpful Stacker (Post 11193275)
Indeed.

It's ridiculous how many times within this thread posters have made 'suggestions' that are pretty much exactly what Ukrainian forces have been doing so far.

It's almost as if such tactics are pretty universally understood....

Fine but for some things there are no reasons obvious to people who are aware of tactics and it's reasonable to puzzle " why " ?

Given the small distances involved and the major potential gain, why are the Ukrainians not dispatching small groups/squads to attack soft and valuable targets like fuel -tankers and ammo trucks in the supply column moving towards Kiev ? If they hit tankers at different points along the convoy, this would halt progress, destroy surrounding vehicles ( maybe ), unsettle troops and give them more work in standing patrol/chasing attackers. The attackers would have a good chance of retreating unscathed through the heavily-wooded terrain.

Since this seems to offer major gains at very very low risk, general knowledge of obvious tactics forces one to ask "why " ?

Wokkafans 2nd Mar 2022 12:31


Originally Posted by SATCOS WHIPPING BOY (Post 11193291)
Logged in for a proper catch-up and had to check I hadn't accidentally subscribed to the 1940s " Boy's Own Book of how to stop a convoy - and other scamp-like things".
For every idea suggested, I am sure the Ukraine's will have thought of 20 more.

Not seen this on here before so thought I would post.

https://liveuamap.com/

Tends to be pretty up to date with what is occurring and where. It pulls together info from various sources, often real-time on the ground, and gives the links to those sources. Pretty useful to help build a picture if you are struggling to wade through the dross on other news sites.


There is a similar crowd sourced effort here:

https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor




SATCOS WHIPPING BOY 2nd Mar 2022 12:32


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11193317)
Fine but for some things there are no reasons obvious to people who are aware of tactics and it's reasonable to puzzle " why " ?

Given the small distances involved and the major potential gain, why are the Ukrainians not dispatching small groups/squads to attack soft and valuable targets like fuel -tankers and ammo trucks in the supply column moving towards Kiev ? If they hit tankers at different points along the convoy, this would halt progress, destroy surrounding vehicles ( maybe ), unsettle troops and give them more work in standing patrol/chasing attackers. The attackers would have a good chance of retreating unscathed through the heavily-wooded terrain.

Since this seems to offer major gains at very very low risk, general knowledge of obvious tactics forces one to ask "why " ?

Maybe they calculate that the fuel bowsers are already empty? The mobile Anti-Air is now static. The mobile artillery is now static. The mobile troop carriers are now static. If they are going nowhere, then there really is no hurry to do anything with them, in fact, leaving them alone may well have exacerbated the invader's problems. How long have they been sat in that queue? How many bowsers will it take to keep a convoy that size running? How are the troops keeping warm (sat snuggly in their vehicles because no one is attacking them) ? The plan may well have been to drive in unopposed and fill up at the nearest gas station along the way. oops. As was mentioned much earlier in the thread : "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake". (Credit -snyggapa )

What is interesting to see from various videos around the bazaars are the large number of vehicles stranded with flat tyres. Direct action by saboteurs, self-inflicted so as not to be able to advance, anti-tyre traps, or simply rotten and decrepit rubber that has passed its use-by date.

LS-4 2nd Mar 2022 12:33

Question for those who may have some more insight, although I don't expect much:

What is openly known about the disposition of medium- to long-range GBAD in Belarus?

According to some news articles, two Russian S-400 / SA-21 battalions (?) were deployed to Belarus for "exercises" prior to the invasion. There are also reports suggesting that at least one unit is operating somewhere in (southern?) Belarus in support of the invasion.

Also - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2022-03-01/

Belarusian state media (belta.by, appears to be down right now) previously reported that Belarus and Russia had discussed additional deployments of Russian S-400s to the western part of the country.

Big Pistons Forever 2nd Mar 2022 12:38

I wonder if Putin has beefed up his security detail. Failing despots seem to be vulnerable to high velocity lead poisoning….

Sue Vêtements 2nd Mar 2022 12:47

It's usually the security detail wot does it


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