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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Winemaker 1st Dec 2022 00:32


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340122)
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..

Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.

Winemaker 1st Dec 2022 01:09


RUSSIA’S FULL-SCALE INVASION of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has seen the return of conventional warfighting to Europe. This has provided an unparalleled opportunity to assess Russia’s military capabilities and the impacts of a range of modern weapons on the battlefield. Ensuring that the correct lessons are drawn from the conflict is vital in two key respects: for Ukraine, if it is to receive appropriate military support from its international partners; and for NATO members, if they are to ensure they are militarily capable of deterring aggression in the future.

How Ukraine denied Russia its initial theory of victory and how the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) reprioritised to offensive operations in Donbas are now sufficiently historical to allow for a more open discussion of events. This report is an account of the pre-war plans of both Russia and Ukraine, the course of the initial phases of the war between February and July 2022, an overview of what has been learned about the AFRF, and an assessment of the implications for NATO and specifically the UK military.

This report is methodologically problematic. It draws on the operational data accumulated by the General Staff of the UAF during the conflict, which was made available to the authors. A significant proportion of this data cannot be made public but was used to inform the conclusions of this report. A good example is Ukrainian losses, which are factored into the conclusions reached as regards the relative effectiveness of tactics and capabilities but cannot be disclosed as they remain operationally sensitive. Other data that is cited was sometimes obtained through methods and sources of collection that are sensitive. The authors have considered the data in the context of its method of collection and the corresponding confidence in its accuracy. However, these judgements cannot be discussed in the report because the nature of the underlying sources for this data remains classified.
A very interesting analysis of both Russian and Ukrainian military and worth a read.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukrai...-web-final.pdf

jolihokistix 1st Dec 2022 01:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340088)

And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?

At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.

MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.

MJ89 1st Dec 2022 01:18


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11340147)
Well, perhaps they are considering that but just not saying anything because, you know, OPSEC. I hope so anyway. We don't hear much about what intelligence is supplied to Ukraine for good reasons.

I heard a PPrune rumor, that opsec, may or may not matter, on a public forum, seriously :D
if the russians subscribe to the theory of gathering intelligence from pprune then they may not, or may..(see what i did there).. have no hope in hell in doing anything but, continue to lose this war.

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 01:44

Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.

fdr 1st Dec 2022 04:08


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11340155)
And there it is, the nub, Russian creep. Like lava. How do you stop it?
At least lava declares itself openly. We love Russia and Russians, except when some of them use underhand methods to steal.
MRGA is fine, but please do not (re)move the goalposts. Thank you.

MRGA! as espoused by Vlad to save his daytime job has the same issues that it had after day 3.

Russia assumed out of Tsar Nick levels of hubris that the other team would give in to the charms of Vlads purported 2nd best army of the world in Ukraine. The corruption that has thrived under Vlads despotic rule has undermined what was already a corrupt system and assured that embarrassment would ensue. Vlads coffers are not being replenished, like the Russian military they are diminished by the hand of Vlad. The only thing that Vlad seems to have picked is that mobilisation would be "is problem....". Throwing mobiks into the fray without food, weapons, training or leadership seems to be an excellent recipe to bring down the federation, so more power to that, Vlad. Vlad is having issues with the 300K that he is effectively turning into 200's and 300's at record rates. Adding more 200's and 300's by increasing the next tranche of victims seems to be contrary to the needs for stability of the Federation. In the end, Russia has managed to alienate many of the republics, states and autonomous oblasts that make up the federation, and that is at the same time removing and damaging a generation of their population that was already too small to maintain Russia's demographics with a bucket or two of viagra. On the other side, Ukraine mobilised its population, and almost every citizen of Ukraine is intent on evicting their unwelcome neighbours.

Can't imagine the self important female talking head that appears too frequently on the Kremlin safe TV channel, being prepared to place her butt into the firing line to achieve Vlads ego trip, whereas every girl in Ukraine seems to be quite prepared and capable to defend their own land from the invaders.

Assuming the worst case of a win by Russia on the ground, that will ensure an indefinite occupation of a hostile public that Russia has shown it cannot sustain, even when they actually had a system that worked. Thanks to Vlad, and the rest of the oligarchs that have diminished Russia's capabilities for their own gains, that should result in a poisoned chalice for Russia, and that is their best outcome, which is a diminishing prospect.

Ukraine needs the extended range fire to impact Russian MSR within the borders of Ukraine. That is a manner by which both Ukrainian and Russian losses are minimised. Fighting in the trenches without interdiction of the MSR wasn't much fun in 1914-18 and this is not looking much better now in many parts. Ukraine has earned the right to be provided such fires, and they have demonstrated discipline in the employment of existing fire that justifies their provision. IMHO.

West Coast 1st Dec 2022 04:38


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340122)
They would be better off giving them long range weapons as well to thwart the resupply of the Russian troops in theatre, training more troops is only one facet, destroying the Russian meat grinders ability to replenish, destroys their ability to wage war..

Combined arms integration is what will win the war as the front collapses back towards Russia after winter. Great to gift weapon their way, better however to teach them how to use those varying weapons systems in a coordinated fashion. Winter is the appropriate time to complete that training.


uxb99 1st Dec 2022 06:54

Snow on the ground suggests this is recent?

KarlADrage 1st Dec 2022 07:30

This is from March:
https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/276147

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 10:01

Non-Russians in Chelyabinsk are being given mobilisation orders, despite partial mobilisation supposedly having ended and despite not having Russian passports or even residence permits, which should make them ineligible…..

langleybaston 1st Dec 2022 10:50


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340165)
Good God man, you mean the CIA do not use us either for intelligence gathering?

I’ve heard the Russians have already got langleybaston targeted and intend to torture him by hanging him out to dry on the washing line by his seaweed until he talks and tells them all he knows about cumulus nimbus.

Relax, what I now know is limited to the date and time, and how many sleeps to Christmas.


NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 11:22

Russian captives are fighting back :E


NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 11:29

Shades of Kuwait


The first video shows Daud Khadziev, from the infamous Samashki village. Russians burned his cow alive, tried to burn his horse alive and ate the foal. The second video is from Ukraine Yampol zoo, russians ate all the Bison, deer and ostridges and starved to death a pack of wolves and a camel.

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 11:32

Carol of the Bells is originally a Ukrainian song called Shchedryk composed by Mykola Leontovych.

It first came to the US 100 years ago, in 1922 - Chicago marked the anniversary so beautifully.

Thank you, friends!

ORAC 1st Dec 2022 11:59

​​​​​​​Apparently, a Russian base near the Svatove-Kreminna front has been overrun by Ukrainian forces. (video)..

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 12:18

Ukrainian PR at its best again..


golfbananajam 1st Dec 2022 12:35


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11340427)

brilliant.

Confusious 1st Dec 2022 14:25

France is first major western country to publicly support proposal for special court to try for crime of aggression.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...er-ukraine-war

fdr 1st Dec 2022 14:34

That's the compact Su-25. Improved ramp utilization and excellent in cold climates. These plains are retaining a substantial amount of their structure post arrival on the turf, pretty tough builds

NutLoose 1st Dec 2022 15:29

The Ukrainians have been having a Mig 29 tag along with theirs as cover by the looks of this.



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